INFrASTrUKTUr Public Transport Internationales Verkehrswesen (64) 4 | 2012 29 Towards a brighter future Current trends suggest that, by 2025, a staggering 6.2 billion private motorised trips will be made every day in cities worldwide. The impact will be disastrous: more private vehicles on the road will mean more congestion, more pollution, greater dependency on fossil fuels and more fatal traic accidents. The International Association of Public Transport (UITP) has developed urban mobility projections for 2025. Figure 1: London aims to increase the combined public transport, walking and cycling share to 63 % Source: UITP Figure 2: Public transport as a solution to upcoming mobility challenges: Metro in Moscow Source: Obersachse Given that oil-based fuels are expected to account for over 95 % of the energy mix and crude oil prices look set to rise in the years ahead, governments will experience a signiicant hike in their energy bills, coupled with greater dependence on oil imports for those countries that are not oil producers. Not to mention the fact that increased pressure on oil reserves could potentially pose a threat to global energy security. At local level, more private vehicles on the road will inevitably create more congestion problems. With many cities around the world already experiencing serious gridlock, more vehicles will literally bring these cities to a standstill. Congestion is not a mere nuisance; its direct cost is often estimated at around 2 % of national GDP - but in heavily congested areas it can be even higher. In monetary terms, this translates into hundreds of billions of euros lost every year (EUR 200 billion in the EU alone). Private vehicles and their infrastructure also occupy massive swathes of our urban space; for example, a journey from home to work by car consumes 90 times more urban space and community-inanced infrastructure than the same journey made by metro. Finally, the increased volume of traic on our roads poses a major threat in terms of its impact on urban traic fatalities. According to UITP data, the number of urban traic fatalities will rise by 30 % by 2025. The issue of road safety will be particularly crucial in Sub-Saharan Africa, developing Asia and the Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) region. Projections indicate that, together, these regions will account for 85 % of urban traic fatalities by 2025. Worldwide, half a million people will be killed in road traic accidents every year. This simply cannot be allowed to happen. on the right track Thankfully, more and better public transport can ofer a solution to these pressing concerns. By embracing public transport, cities around the globe can play their role The author: Alain Flausch A ccording to UITP data, in a little over ten years’ time, worldwide transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions look set to be 30 % higher than 2005 levels. The reason is the massive increase in trips made by private motorised transport modes, which emit 3.5 times more GHG per pkm than public transport. In the Asia-Paciic region for example, urban transport GHG emissions will skyrocket, growing by 120 % on 2005 levels. If current trends are allowed to prevail, in 2025 2.7 billion extra private motorised trips will be made every day in cities around the globe compared to 2005. This will make it impossible to limit global temperature rises to no more than 2 °C, setting us on the path towards potentially dangerous climate change. The road to catastrophe Urban transport energy consumption will also be 30 % higher in 2025 due to the greater number of trips made by private vehicles. INFrASTrUKTUr Public Transport Internationales Verkehrswesen (64) 4 | 2012 30 in mitigating the negative impact of rising levels of mobility. By taking action to adopt a more balanced split of urban transport modes, cities will be ighting climate change, boosting growth and creating liveable urban environments where people and business can thrive. The impact of a massive shift to public transport would be immense. Growth in worldwide urban transport GHG emissions could be contained if public transport doubled its share of trips worldwide by 2025. In this scenario, called PTx2, and despite the projected 50 % increase in the overall number of trips made in urban areas worldwide, the carbon footprint of urban mobility would be 25 % lower in 2025 compared to 2005. In Europe for example, more and better public transport would help the EU deliver a 19 % reduction in urban transport GHG emissions by 2025 compared to 2005 levels. Investing in public transport also makes sound economic sense. Globally, prioritising public transport, walking and cycling in the mobility mix would make it possible to stabilise urban transport energy consumption, again despite the projected massive increase in trips. Compared to a businessas-usual scenario, this would deliver signiicant energy bill savings - to the tune of USD 140 billion per year - and would represent a major boon for oil-importing countries. By linking employers and their workforce, public transport also generates business activity and boosts urban economic activity. Meanwhile, capital investment in public transport sparks a chain reaction in business activity and generates value that can be 3 to 4 times higher than the initial investment, according to some estimates. Moreover, UITP igures suggest that, on a global level, public transport operators could provide a further 7 million green, local jobs by 2025, despite improvements in labour productivity. Clearly, a shift to public transport could become a cornerstone of economic recovery and help deliver green growth. Cities that embrace public transport and other sustainable modes provide pleasant, safe and healthy environments for their citizens. By shunning a car-dominated mobility model, 60,000 lives could be saved every year thanks to fewer traic casualties. Health beneits of sustainable mobility patterns include lower risks of obesity and heart disease due to more physical exercise. By connecting people to workplaces, schools, hospitals and leisure facilities, public transport also plays a vital role in guaranteeing that people from all walks of life can participate fully in society. More public transport, walking and cycling also means that less urban space is needed to accommodate private vehicles and their infrastructure, freeing up space for people to enjoy. In Lille, for example, major eforts have been made to rebalance the use of public space, including the conversion of a giant car park into a 3.5 ha park for recreation. Time for action Since the launch of its public transport strategy in June 2009, UITP has been working hard to raise awareness of the urgent need for action. Many cities and regions around the world have recognised that public transport helps to drive economic growth, protect the environment and ensure pleasant, safe and healthy places to live and work. In Moscow for example, where congestion and mobility problems have risen to unprecedented levels, the City Administration has recently adopted an ambitious transport development programme allocating 20 - 25 % of the entire annual city budget to the development of all public transport modes and city infrastructure between 2012 and 2016. Nevertheless, putting in place public transport projects on any scale is no mean feat. A clear urban mobility strategy, underpinned by visionary leadership and political will, is vital. For example, London is forecast to grow by 1.25 million people over the next 20 years and daily trips are predicted to rise by 15 % to 27 million. To meet these mobility challenges, between now and 2031, London aims to increase the combined public transport, walking and cycling modal share to 63 %. To put this into practice, a multi-sector approach is being implemented that includes modernisation of the current transport network, the commissioning of a new east-west rail link, improved provision for walking and cycling, and transport demand management, such as the congestion charge and parking charges. In order to bring about a shift to sustainable mobility, public transport needs to drive decision-making in terms of urban planning. The economic downturn currently afecting many regions of the world could ofer an excellent opportunity to build a more sustainable future, as eiciency, value for money and sustainability are increasingly important considerations when identifying development sites; and public transport ticks all the boxes. However, the question of inancing and funding clearly cannot be ignoredand not just in relation to new infrastructure. Although, as has been demonstrated above, investing in public transport makes clear economic sense, in many cases public Figure 3: Development of modal split and daily trips in urban areas by 2025 Modal split and daily trips in urban areas Urban transport performance Daily trips in urban areas (billions) Non motorised Private motorised Public Transport 2005 2025 (BAU*) 2025 (PTx2) 2005 2025 (BAU*) 2025 (PTx2) Modal split urban trips (%) Modal split urban trips (%) 100 50 0 15 10 5 0 14 1.2 1.5 32 3.6 3.6 32 54 47 16 37 2.8 3.5 6.2 3.6 4.2 36 32 2005 2025 (BAU*) 2025 (PTx2) Urban transport energy consumption (million tons oil equivalent) 700 890 720 Urban transport GHG emissions (billion tons CO 2 equivalent) 2.4 3.05 2.5 Urban traic fatalities (thousands) 380 500 320 Jobs at public transport operators (millions) 7.1 6.7 14 * Business as usual Internationales Verkehrswesen (64) 4 | 2012 31 transport remains under-inanced. To address this situation, the inancial robustness of the sector needs to be improved and, by diversifying revenue and funding sources and increasing eiciency and proitability, public transport can reduce its dependency on public money and ensure its inancial sustainability. Considering the long timescale required for planning and delivery, growth in public transport usage cannot come from new infrastructure alone. Innovative transport services, with quality as a core value, will help to attract more passengers. In order to deliver these services, customers need to be put at the heart of all decision-making. This represents nothing short of a cultural revolution within the public transport sector. Progress is already being made. For example, transport operator MTR Hong Kong has wholeheartedly embraced this customer-focussed approach, as expressed in its tagline ‘Caring for life’s journey’s’. Railway company JR East in Japan is ofering customers ultra-convenient services that it with their busy modern lifestyles. Childcare facilities are available in its stations, along with shops, restaurants and transport services. Convenience can also come in the shape of combined mobility services, namely, a package of transport services combining public transport, walking, cycling and car-sharing. For example, in Bremen, the car-sharing experience has been very positive, with 6,000+ current car-sharing users having collectively removed approximately 1,500 private cars from the roads. Bremen has been working steadily to integrate carsharing into its oicial transport strategy. Conclusion Public transport is one of the most adequate solutions to the mobility challenges facing our cities, both now and in the future. Investing in eicient and sustainable transport networks will help tackle climate change, support green growth and improve quality of life in cities. Public transport means progress for cities, societies and a green economy. There is an urgent need to act now. UITP’s strategy is not a utopia and progress is possible. This can be achieved thanks to the commitment of all stakeholderspoliticians, decision-makers, investors and the public transport community itself. ■ Alain Flausch Secretary General, International Association of Public Transport (UITP) via: info@uitp.org KLIMA.STADT.WANDEL. umdenken | umsteuern | umplanen | umbauen ECO MOBIL expo & congress 14. + 15. November 2012 Kongress mit Fachausstellung Messe Offenburg