International Transportation (67) 1 | 2015 55 Academics SCIENCE & RESEARCH Projects in a nutshell An overview of selected mobility research projects Reliable systems for recharging electric vehicles T he success of electric vehicle networks depends on economical vehicles - and eicient power grids. Existing power lines were not designed for the loads generated by electric vehicles: When multiple electric vehicles plug in at the same time, existing power grids quickly reach the limit of their capacity. Fraunhofer researchers have developed prototype software to show grid operators how many electric vehicles can be connected to their local grid. “A vehicle draws up to 22 kilowatts (KW) of power. So if multiple vehicles are plugged in at the same time, current grids quickly reach their limits,” says Dr. Michael Agsten from the Advanced System Technology (AST) department at the Ilmenau site of the Fraunhofer Institute of Optronics, System Technologies and Image Exploitation IOSB. Together with his team, Agsten has developed a software program that shows grid operators how much load their low voltage network can handle and how many charging processes can run simultaneously without hitting the limits set by statutory requirements or by the grid operator. Each electricity substation typically supplies power to 150 or more households. Assumed that a certain proportion of households will own an electric vehicle in the future and plug the vehicle in at some point in time, then arises an inconceivably high number of charging scenarios, since it is impossible to predict which households will charge their electric vehicles at any one point in time. Every time another electric vehicle is plugged in, this increases the number of possible combinations of simultaneous charging situations distributed geographically and over time. The current processes used for testing and installation are unable to take all the local boundary conditions into account. The researchers decided to simulate their model using the Monte Carlo method, a form of stochastic modeling. The aim is to produce a group of combinations that is as heterogeneous as possible. The number of these combinations is signiicantly smaller than the total number of all possible combinations. It is far quicker to analyze somewhere between 1,000 and 10,000 cases, and get a very good approximate value: In a matter of seconds the software program shows the degree of overload risk and how many electric vehicles can be charged simultaneously in a local grid. Distribution grid operators can use these igures to protect their power grids from long-term damage and sudden outages. The prototype of the software program has already been created as part of the “Managed Charging 3.0” project sponsored by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB). At the moment the IT platform is already running smoothly in the laboratory with test data. The next step will be the analysis of real distribution grids. ebl Contact: Fraunhofer Application Center System Technology Ilmenau (IOSB) AST, Ilmenau (DE); www.iosb.fraunhofer.de/ servlet/ is/ 12672/ Source: OpenStreetMap/ Fraunhofer IOSB-AST International Transportation (67) 1 | 2015 56 SCIENCE & RESEARCH Academics Sandglasses - red and green R esearchers at the University of Granada (UGR) found that only the two mandatory phases of traic lights, steady green and steady red, prevent unsafe pedestrian behavior and communicate a clear message. These colors in combination with an indication of the time left to cross or wait - in the form of a sandglass symbol with a countdown or what’s known as a Marshalite - would be the most efective means of preventing accidents. According to the scientists neither lashing traic lights nor the color yellow (or amber) have any efect on pedestrians. The aim of the study conducted by scientists at UGR’s “Brain Mind and Behavior” Research Center was to contribute to the design of more efective traic signals to prevent people taking risks at traic-light controlled crosswalks. The authors worked with a sample of 247 participants, most of whom (74.89 %) had a valid driving license. All were presented with a series of photographs of various pedestrian crosswalks controlled by traic lights in the center of Granada. Participants were shown diferent crosswalks with both real and modiied traic light regulation. They were asked to rate each situation from 1 (“Never cross in that situation”) to 10 (“Always cross in that situa- Simulator of bicycle use within cities U niversitat Autonoma de Barcelona researchers have developed a computer simulation model that helps city oicials decide which improvements can be made to increase the number of bicycle users in the city. The model compares different actions and determines which set of measures are the most adequate according to their impact. Initially developed for the city of Skopje, Macedonia, the model allows foreseeing results and predicting the efect that a set of actions will have on the number of bicyclists. Thanks to its application, the city of Skopje foresees an increase from the current 2.5 % to 5 %, a percentage typical of northern European cities, where bicycle transport is an established option. Among the improvements included in the programme are the adaptation of road surfaces, the construction of new roads to cover new itineraries, the creation of bike stations and rental points, and the modiication of already existing stations. In order to calculate the impact each possible change can have, the model takes into account the characteristics of the city’s inhabitants, such as their motivation to use bicycles, the lack of motivation produced after conditions do not satisfy users, and the increase in motivation when neighbors also use bicycles. “There is a diference between those who use their bicycle even if it is raining, snowing or hot outside, and those who only use it if the road conditions are good and the weather is nice. This is the irst time this type of model takes into account the percentage of each group of people according to their motivation and their preferences. This makes it easier to predict the efects of each measure with great precision”, explains Roman Buil, researcher at the UAB Department of Telecommunications and Engineering Systems and creator of the model. Given that municipal budgets are always limited, the model allows to prioritize the measures to be implemented, such as deciding how many stations or paths to create, or adapting a speciic stretch of road. Based on these initial conditions, the model ofers, in percentage of users, the results of a list of combinations of diferent actions and determines which is the best combination to reach the objective. It is not common for politicians to use computer models when making decisions, but this model has been very well accepted in all the cities in which it is being tested. UAB researchers have created similar models to be used in very diferent situations, such as optimizing leisure options available on a mountain close to the city of Skopje; distributing the areas of an urban park to satisfy the preferences of a maximum number of users, in Zagreb, Croatia; determining the most adequate types of municipal facilities taking into account those living nearby (nursery schools, libraries, civic centers, parks, etc.), which is still to be implemented; as well as redistributing the industries of a large city to minimise environmental impacts, which is currently in trial mode in the Chinese city of Yantai. The project is part of the European FUPOL project, funded by the EU’s 7th Framework Programme, which develops advanced artiicial intelligence tools to assist politicians in the design and implementation of social policies. ave More information: www.uab.es International Transportation (67) 1 | 2015 57 Academics SCIENCE & RESEARCH tion”) as to whether or not they would cross. The types of traic light that the researchers suggested to participants were: a steady green light, lashing green, steady yellow, lashing yellow, steady red, lashing red and lights of. Currently, the EU has no speciic, common regulations for traic signals. For example, in Italy, as well as steady green/ steady red, there is a yellow phase for pedestrians. In France, there is a lashing red phase, and in Spanish cities like Granada, a lashing green light indicates an imminent change to red. The results revealed some curious facts. Many pedestrians do not know the meaning of the non-mandatory phases of traic lights, yellow ore blinking lights. The researchers conclude that the options involving a lashing light and the color yellow are not efective in communicating a clear, safe message: The mandatory solutions would be the best options to avoid unsafe pedestrian behavior when crossing at controlled crosswalks. Another type of light that they consider would be efective is called a Marshalite, which was irst used in Australia in 1936; in Germany the similar Heuer-Ampel was used in the 1950s and 1960s. They had two motorized rotors that moved pointers clockwise to point to the relevant section: red, yellow or green. The researchers suggest that the lack of common standards and the ambiguous messages about intermediate stages (steady or lashing lights) “could diminish road safety levels, contributing to the high number of accidents that occur annually in Europe at signalized junctions-equally common in Spain, according to the Spanish Interior Ministry’s Directorate-General for Traic (DGT)”. ave Contact: Leandro L. Di Stasi, Brain Mind and Behavior Research Center University of Granada, Ergonomics and Cognitive Science research group (HUM687), Granada (ES); mail: distasi@ugr.es Clearing up Europe’s air pollution hotspots E urope cannot achieve the WHO air quality guidelines without strictly controlling emissions from coal and wood burning for home heating, road traic, and other sources such as industrial-scale factory farming, according to recent International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) research. Current air quality legislation in Europe will lead to signiicant improvements in particulate matter pollution, but without further emission control eforts, many areas of Europe will continue to see air pollution levels above the limits set by the EU and the World Health Organization. Strict control of vehicle emissions alone will not be suicient to achieve the limit values. Under current legislation, air pollution hotspots will remain in Eastern Europe, southern Poland and major European cities such as Warsaw, Paris and Milan, according to a new study published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics by researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and colleagues around Europe. “This is the irst time that we have analyzed particulate matter at individual monitoring stations across Europe, from regional background to urban streets, exactly where it’s important to know if air quality limits will be met. We show the potential and the need for further emission controls to achieve safe levels of air quality - current legislation will not do the job,” says IIASA researcher Gregor Kiesewetter, who led the study. While new policies in Europe have contributed to signiicant decreases in air pollution over the past several decades, an estimated 80 % of Europe’s population is still exposed to PM levels above WHO air quality guidelines, and a signiicant proportion of the region still exceeds the air quality limit values set by EU law. Such pollution comes from a number of sources, including power plants, agriculture, domestic heating, and city traic. IIASA’s GAINS model has been used for years to provide estimates of emissions and air pollution levels to support policymakers in Europe and around the world. In particular, the model has been employed in the ongoing revision of the EU air quality legislation. The new study also uses the GAINS model, and improves the estimation of groundlevel PM levels by incorporating air quality data collected on the ground at monitoring stations across Europe. Using the improved model, the researchers explored two scenarios for how air pollution levels could develop across Europe by 2030. Assuming that current legislation is successfully implemented, average air pollution levels would decrease substantially. However, the study shows that a substantial proportion of the European population would still be exposed to PM10 concentrations exceeding EU standards in 2030, in particular in southern Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, northern Italy, and Bulgaria, as well as in a number of major cities. In a second scenario, the researchers examined what would happen if the most eicient air pollution control technologies that are currently available were implemented across Europe. In this case, they found that by 2030, 99 % of monitoring stations would see air pollution levels reduced to below EU limits. ebl More information: http: / / www.iiasa.ac.at/ web/ home/ about/ news/ 150219-EU-air.html International Transportation (67) 1 | 2015 58 SCIENCE & RESEARCH Academics Mission: City of the future S cience Year 2015 - City of the Future is up and running: This German national platform lays out a strategic research and innovation agenda. Science Year 2015 is devoted to the city of the future. As part of a campaign tackling the major questions around the city of the future, Fraunhofer IAO is informing city authorities, companies and individuals and helping them ind the answers. Fraunhofer IAO is addressing major aspects of the seven innovation areas a part of campaign running in parallel to the Science Year 2015 - City of the Future: Fraunhofer’s Morgenstadt initiative will be on board the “MS Wissenschaft” exhibition ship, giving visitors a fun way to discover a wide range of research projects concerning the city of the future. And experts at Fraunhofer IAO and its cooperation partner, the Institute of Human Factors and Technology Management (IAT) at the University of Stuttgart, are starting a blog series about the city of the future, in which they present their insights, ideas and questions related to the following priority topics: • Versatile city: Cities will have to be incredibly resilient and able to adapt in order to cope with the efects of climate change, shifting demographics and digitization. What are the success factors that pave the way to a “resilient” city? • Livable city: More and more of us are living in increasingly complex urban systems. How can we embrace the idea of the city as a collaborative and social space, and how can we then design new ways of getting involved? • Productive city: In the city of the future, production centers will be so quiet and clean that they can be located right next to residential areas. Which work practices, processes and technologies do we need to turn this vision into reality? • Social city: Sharing is the new having. Establishing a “shareconomy” provides people and companies with new, sustainable opportunities and business models for how they use goods and resources. What do smart services look like in the city of the future, and what new living models can we expect to see? • Moving city: More and more people and goods are on the move in our cities - leading to traic jams, air pollution and noise. New technologies and connectivity options are making urban mobility hassle-free. What do pioneering transportation concepts look like? • Digital city: In the Internet of Things, connectivity is not only about people, but increasingly also about machines and our environment. What speciic opportunities and risks does this development pose in an urban setting? Fraunhofer’s international “Future Cities” convention will take place in Berlin on 25-26 November 2015. It will provide an overview of the latest research as well as ideas and visions for the city of the future. The event is also a chance to meet and exchange ideas with a host of national and international players from research, politics and industry connected with this topic and to collaborate in shaping the future. ebl Website in German, English, Chinese: https: / / www.wissenschaftsjahr-zukunfts stadt.de/ uebergreifende-infos/ english.html Contact: Stefen Braun, Urban Systems Engineering, Fraunhofer IAO Stuttgart (DE), mail: stefen.braun@iao.fraunhofer.de Shared self-driving city cars A leet of self-driving shared vehicles could make 90 % of conventional cars in mid-sized cities superluous, according to a study published by the International Transport Forum at the OECD. Even during peak hours, only one third (35 %) of the current number of cars would be needed to provide the same number of trips as today. ITF researchers used actual transport data from Lisbon, Portugal, to model the impact of two concepts: “TaxiBots”, selfdriving vehicles shared simultaneously by several passengers (ridesharing) and “Auto- Vots”, which pick-up and drop-of single passengers sequentially (carsharing). The largest reduction is achieved where a leet of TaxiBots is complemented by a subway or other high-capacity public transport. But even in the least efective scenario (AutoVots without subway), 50 % of cars would no longer be needed. The need for on-street parking spots could be totally eliminated by the use of a leet of shared self-driving cars in all scenarios, allowing the reallocation of 1.5 million square meters (20 %) of street space to other uses. While the number of cars is drastically reduced, total kilometers traveled increase with such as scheme. This is due to detours traveled for pick-up/ drop-of, repositioning and a shift from bus trips to shared cars. The additional travel could increase environmental impact, if the leets used conventional engines. If electric vehicles were used instead, a TaxiBot leet would need 2 % more vehicles to accommodate battery re-charging times and reduced travel range, though the increase would be limited to 2 %. ebl The report “Urban Mobility System Upgrade - How shared self-driving cars could change city traic” is available for free download at: www.internationaltransportforum.org/ Pub/ pdf/ 15CPB_Self-drivingcars.pdf Contact: Michael Kloth, ITF Head of Communications, Paris (FR), michael.kloth@oecd.org