International Transportation (68) 1 | 2016 12 Energy-eicient two-wheelers in Southeast Asia Policy options for transformational change of two-wheeler mobility in Malaysia Two-wheeler, energy eiciency, climate change mitigation, transport, electric two-wheeler Based on an ASEAN-German Technical Cooperation Project, a programmatic approach to making the land transport sector in Malaysia more sustainable has been developed. It focuses on the motorised two-wheeler (2W) leet. The uptake of electric 2Ws and the introduction of fuel economy policies for conventional 2Ws are discussed. The proposed policy framework aims to facilitate the transformation of-2W mobility in Malaysia and evaluate the potential environmental beneits. Authors: Friedel Sehlleier, Julia Nagel, Rico Krueger M otorised two-wheelers (2Ws) are an omnipresent transport mode in Malaysia and across Southeast Asia. Malaysia has the world’s third highest density of motorcycles after Taiwan and Vietnam (figure 1), with one motorcycle for every three people. 2W-use has been booming in the region, as 2Ws are relatively inexpensive to obtain and operate. In addition, they ofer door-todoor mobility and easy parking. They are agile in congested conditions, and improve mobility for lowand medium-income populations in particular. 2Ws often ill the gaps in urban transport systems or even form a part of it, e.g. motorcycle taxis in Thailand or Indonesia. They are also used for commercial deliveries and for public services, e.g. the local police ride motorcycles. In Malaysia, strong growth in population and per capita income has coincided with a 50 % increase in 2Ws over the past ten years. Every year, about half a million 2Ws are registered. Given their sheer number in the region (see table 1), 2Ws contribute signiicantly to the negative external efects of transport activities, such as carbon emissions, air pollution and its related health impacts, unpleasant odours, noise and road accidents. From an environmental perspective, however, they receive comparatively little attention by policymakers, who often tend to perceive 2Ws as a transitional mode on the way to automobiles. Yet, Malaysia is a case in point, since growing car use does not necessarily replace 2W motorisation. Both car and 2W ownership have consistently grown since 2004 (figure 2). 2Ws are the most overlooked transport mode in current government plans across the region to cut transport fuel consumption and carbon emissions across the region. While 2Ws are generally much more fuel-eicient than cars, they nonetheless ofer considerable potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and air pollution. Not only need conventional 2Ws with internal combustion engines (C2Ws) become more eicient, but also the adoption of electric 2Ws (E2Ws) technology needs to be accelerated and mainstreamed across Southeast Asia. This follows from the growing recognition that long-term decarbonisation goals can only be met by a shift to electric mobility. In Malaysia, the transport sector is responsible for 26 % of energy-related CO 2 emissions. 85 % of these emissions are from the road transport sector, of which 11 % are caused by 2Ws. Photo: Ponraj Krish/ pixabay STRATEGIES Sustainable Transport Sustainable Mobility StrategieS International Transportation (68) 1 | 2016 13 In 2014, almost 12 million 2Ws were registered in Malaysia, accounting for 48 % of all local motor vehicles. The Malaysian 2W market is dominated by relatively low-powered vehicles, with 100 to 125 cc single cylinder 4-stroke engines and a median age of six to ten years. E2Ws remain a niche product in Malaysia today, with approximately 1,000 motorcycles and scooters registered in 2015. However, the government’s Electric Mobility Blueprint plans expand the use of E2Ws, with a goal of selling 100,000 units by 2020. Depending on engine size, the average fuel economy of C2Ws in Malaysia is between 45 and 55 km/ l. Compared to the average fuel economy of most cars, which amount to 10 to 15 km/ l, C2Ws fare better. However, experts estimate that eiciency can easily be increased by more than 50% to at least 75 km/ l through a combination of cost-eicient technologies available today (see table 2). Even higher gains (up to 100 km/ l) are considered possible by implementing technology improvements such as downsizing engines. Most of these modiications are not signiicantly expensive; in fact, some reduce the cost by reducing the amount of material required to produce an ultimately smaller and lighter vehicle. There are currently no mandatory fuel eiciency standards for 2Ws in Malaysia or any other ASEAN country, which would promote the adoption of fuel-eicient technologies by manufacturers. China and Taiwan, both countries with high 2W motorisation, have introduced such standards. Malaysia is eradicating its fuel subsidies, yet the low oil price makes consumers less interested in more eicient models. Despite the currently low oil prices, the cost of fuel is expected to rise considerably in the future due to increasing demand and limited supply. Eventually the operational cost of even smaller 2Ws will become a major customer consideration. With e2Ws towards a more energyeicient transport sector While the eiciency of C2Ws can be greatly improved, from a certain point the ultimate way to improve eiciency further and to eliminate local air pollution will be through E2Ws. E2Ws generally appear in three distinct forms: pedelecs (pedal-assisted; top speed of 25 km/ h), e-bikes (no pedal-assistance needed; top speed of 25-50 km/ h), and e-scooters (no pedal-assistance needed; top speed above 50 km/ h). For individual road transportation, E2Ws are the most energy-eicient powered vehicles. As electric motors are more eicient than internal combustion engines, studies Figure 1: Motorised two-wheelers are omnipresent on Southeast Asia’s roads. Photo: Hajo Steinsträßer/ pixelio.de 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Population [million] 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP per capita [constant 2005 US$] 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Registered passenger cars excluding taxis per capita 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Registered motorcycles per capita Figure 2: Development and mobility indicators for Malaysia from 2004 to 2014 Source: [1] indicator Malaysia indonesia Philippines thailand (2013) Vietnam (2012) Population [million] 30.2 252.8 100.1 67.2 90.7 GDP per capita [2005 US$] 7304.1 1865.9 1649.4 3451.3 1077.9 CO 2 emissions per capita (2011) [metric tons] 7.8 2.3 0.9 4.6 2.0 Ownership rate of passenger cars 0.390 0.048 0.009 0.194 0.008 Ownership rate of motorcycles 0.393 0.366 0.042 0.298 0.416 Share of registered vehicles which are 2-wheelers 0.481 0.820 0.553 0.596 0.958 Table 1: Development and mobility indicators of Malaysia and four selected ASEAN countries for 2014 (if not specified otherwise) StrategieS Sustainable Mobility International Transportation (68) 1 | 2016 14 show that tank-to-wheel energy savings of 50-90 % can be achieved. [2] In terms of CO 2 -impact, the most commonly sold C2W models in Malaysia emit 48 g of CO 2 per kilometre, whereas E2Ws with a similar performance are estimated to emit just 20 g of CO 2 per kilometre. This shows that E2Ws have signiicant mitigation potential, even with a relatively fossil fuel-reliant electricity mix (0.741 kg of CO 2 / kWh), as is the case in Malaysia. Furthermore, E2Ws have several other advantages over C2Ws. First, the operation of E2Ws does not produce tailpipe emissions, and second, electric scooters are much quieter than C2Ws. Third, E2Ws may require less maintenance than C2Ws, as electric drivetrain systems are less complex overall and contain fewer moving parts. Besides, E2Ws do not require specialised charging infrastructure as opposed to other electric vehicles, as E2Ws can be charged using conventional electrical sockets in residential or oice buildings. Yet, two major aspects currently hinder a large-scale market uptake of E2Ws. First, E2Ws are still more expensive than C2Ws due to low market penetration rates in Malaysia and the region. Second, the range of E2Ws is lower than that of C2Ws due to their limited battery storage capacity. Highperformance lithium-ion batteries can address the consumers’ range and performance concerns, but are more expensive than low-performance lead-acid batteries. Despite the costs, E2Ws are steadily growing in popularity. It can be concluded that the reason for purchase is not strictly related to long-term economics, but rather related to the low operating cost and overall convenience of an electric vehicle. As newer generations of these electric 2Ws gain ever more power and speed, safety becomes more of a concern. Despite potential range limitations most commuters and elderly people could very well meet their mobility needs with the range provided by an average E2W. While the average distance covered by 2Ws in Malaysia is 30 km per day, E2Ws typically ofer a range of 20 km to 100 km. By contrast, C2Ws provide a range between 150 and 200 km. Experiences from China and Taiwan show that favourable local conditions are crucial for mass adoption of E2Ws. On the Chinese mainland, the commercial success of E2Ws has been driven mostly by restrictions on C2W use in cities, combined with exceptions for E2Ws. In Taiwan, subsidies for E2Ws were introduced without concurrent restrictions on C2Ws, which turned out to be insuicient for shifting the market towards more E2Ws. [3] Policy options for transformational change of 2W mobility in Malaysia Under the Paris Climate Agreement, Malaysia plans to reduce the CO 2 intensity of its GDP by 35 % until 2030 relative to 2005 levels, increasing to a 45 % reduction, if suicient international support is available. This commitment is underpinned by the National Policy on Climate Change and the National Green Technology Policy, which have been further operationalised by the Green Technology Master Plan (GTMP) and the Carbon Intensity Reduction Roadmap in 2015, both of which consider mitigation in the 2W sector. The GTMP includes three strategies for cutting transport sector emissions: public transport upgrades, improvement of fuel quality standards, and electric mobility. For the latter, the Electric Mobility Blueprint has been developed with the objective of transforming Malaysia into an electromobility marketplace with 2,000 electric buses, 100,000 electric cars, 100,000 E2Ws and 125,000 public access charging stations by 2020. The target of 100,000 E2Ws is broken down into 50 % corporate and public leets, 40 % individual consumers, and 10 % under alternative ownership, e.g. E2W sharing schemes. Furthermore, local manufacturing of energy-eicient and electric 2Ws is promoted through Malaysia’s National Automotive Policy (NAP). With customised incentives to attract industry investments, Malaysia aspires to become the regional automotive hub for Energy-Eicient Vehicles (EEV). 80% of the 800,000 2Ws expected to be produced in 2020 shall meet EEV speciication(s). Proposed policy framework Eicient 2Ws are already considered in national policy strategies in Malaysia, but further steps are necessary for making transformational change work. An integrated policy framework could comprise the following elements: • Fuel consumption or CO 2 standards for newly sold C2Ws: Standards should become more stringent over time and could start from the current speciication for EEV deined in Malaysia’s NAP. • Emission standards for new C2Ws: With regard to C2Ws, fuel quality standards need to be advanced, as the current standard is only Euro 2, and plans for moving to Euro 3 are behind schedule. • Compliance programme to enforce adopted emission standards: Like most other ASEAN countries, Malaysia currently has no inspection and maintenance programmes for 2Ws. Local pilot projects for emission testing and maintenance facilities could be used to build experience. • Shift to electric propulsion: Such a transition requires a political and economic enabling framework to overcome existing barriers. As experiences from China and Taiwan have shown, the integrated policy approach- should additionally encompass the following elements to support the uptake of E2Ws: • Traic-related policies and regulations at city level to incentivise the adoption of low-emission 2Ws, including E2Ws, e.g. environmental zones with restrictions for C2Ws; • Fiscal and economic instruments to bridge the price diference between E2Ws and C2Ws, e.g. direct subsidies on E2W purchase prices (rebate system), lowering the sales taxes, or adjusting circulation taxes on C2Ws; • Improve charging infrastructure at the workplace to solve range anxiety for commuters; • Environmentally sound and eco-friendly life-cycle management for E2W batteries; • Regulation and standards for E2W design including type approval; • Improvement of consumer awareness regarding E2W technology and its beneits. environmental beneits The impact of fuel economy standards for C2Ws and the introduction of E2Ws on the CO 2 emissions of the Malaysian 2W sector 2W technology option eiciency improvement Injection system 10 % Start-stop system 4 % (up to 10 % in cities) Optimisation of combustion 12 % Low-resistance tires 5 % Chassis weight reduction 6 % Aerodynamic optimisation 7.5 % (up to 15 % at high speeds) Table 2: 2W technologies and their fuel eiciency potential Source: [2] Sustainable Mobility StrategieS International Transportation (68) 1 | 2016 15 are modelled with the following assumptions: • Population will grow in line with oicial forecasts, and ownership rates of 2Ws will latten out at 0.4 2Ws per capita. • Each 2W is driven 10,000 km annually. To accurately account for the replacement of old 2Ws, a stock turnover rate of 5 % is assumed. • The baseline fuel consumption of C2Ws is 2.2 l/ 100km and the resulting baseline emission factor is 48.6 g of CO 2 / km for 2015. • For E2Ws, the emission factor of 20.6 g of CO 2 / km is based on the 2015 electricity mix. To obtain the emissions for any year, the number of 2Ws within each age category is multiplied by the emission factor corresponding to the year when the vehicle irst entered the market. These products are calculated for C2Ws and E2Ws and summed across all cohorts. 3 diferent scenarios are considered: 1. A business-as-usual scenario is set as the baseline. 2. Under the E2W-only scenario, sales targets for E2Ws are set. The assumed number of operating E2Ws is 100,000 by 2020 and 800,000 by 2030. 3. The third scenario additionally assumes that fuel economy standards are in place, and fuel eiciency of C2Ws is expected to improve by 5 % annually from 2018 onwards, so that in 2030, one C2W will consume 1.13 l of fuel per 100 km. Results are presented in Figure 3. By 2030, savings of roughly 2,000 kt of CO 2 are expected under the E2W-only scenario. Due to the large leet size, the magnitude of savings through more eicient C2W is approximately ive times bigger and equals 10,000 kt of CO 2 by 2030. This shows that both conventional and electric 2W technology are essential for decarbonising the sector. Beyond the potential in Malaysia, another case in point is Indonesia. The Indonesian government has already estimated a technical mitigation potential of 16- Mt of CO 2 in 2030 through E2W introduction. For Thailand, replacing 10% of the current 2W leet with E2Ws could reduce GHG emissions from the road transport sector by 0.23 to 1.27 Mt of CO 2 each year. Additional gains are possible with C2W technology improvements. The environmental impact pertaining to the production, use, disposal, and recycling of vehicle batteries, especially lead-acid batteries should not be overlooked. To reduce the detrimental efect of batteries, adequate recycling programmes should be in place. Additional negative environmental impacts could occur when consumers shift from public or non-motorised transport modes to E2Ws. However, the availability of clean and eicient E2Ws could also promote a shift from cars to E2Ws. Outlook: Potential for energyeicient 2Ws in Malaysia and aSeaN Malaysia could take a leading position in 2W eiciency and electriication in the ASEAN region. Its conditions are good due to its various plans to promote energyeicient and electric vehicle technology and the existing local industry. What was successful in China, and what could become successful in Malaysia, can be replicated and scaled up across the ASEAN region. The regional market potential is enormous since 2W sales in other leading markets like Thailand and Indonesia are around 10 million units per year. In our opinion, the 2W sector deserves more attention, especially given the climate change mitigation and energy-saving potential, among others. Of course, local conditions, existing policies, rules and regulations across ministries need to be considered and there is no “one-its-all” approach. While E2W adoption can be mainstreamed in the long term, conventional 2W technology is likely to remain dominant in the short to medium term. Therefore, the signiicant potential for improving energy and CO 2 performance of conventional 2W technology also ought to be leveraged. An integrated policy approach is needed including both technology-neutral policies and measures like CO 2 standards and labels for all newly sold 2Ws, and speciic actions to help electric 2Ws move out of their niche status. ■ The cooperation project is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH in cooperation with the ASEAN Secretariat. More information: www.TransportandClimateChange.org LITERATURE [1] ASEAN-Japan Transport Partnership 2015: Statistics, www.ajtpweb. org/ statistics; World Bank 2015: http: / / data.worldbank.org [2] Briggs: Energy Eicient 2-Wheelers for the ASEAN market, unpublished paper, 2016 [3] Weiss et al.: On the electriication of road transportation - A review of the environmental, economic, and social performance of electric two-wheelers, in: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2015 [4] Yang: Launching strategy for electric vehicles: Lessons from China and Taiwan, in: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2010 [5] National Council on Climate Change: Updating Indonesia’s National Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve, 2015. https: / / issuu.com/ thamrinschool/ docs/ updating_indonesia_s_greehouse_gas_ [6] Kerdlap: Can electricity replace gasoline? (published by GIZ, ASEAN Transport and Climate Change Project), 2015. http: / / transportandclimatechange.org/ wp-content/ uploads/ 2015/ 03/ Electric-twowheelers-in-Thailand-02-03-2015-inal.pdf Julia Nagel Advisor, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH, Bangkok (TH) julia.nagel@giz.de rico Krueger PhD student, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney (AU) r.krueger@student.unsw.edu.au Friedel Sehlleier Deputy Team Leader, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH, Bangkok (TH) friedel.sehlleier@giz.de 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Baseline Scenario 1: E2W Scenario 2: E2W + fuel economy standards Figure 3: Policy scenario analysis - total annual emissions for diferent scenarios