International Transportation (69) 1 | 2017 6 Transport for tomorrow Transport will remain a growth industry. That also means it has to start tackling some serious challenges. An outlook by Vincent Benezech, Policy Analyst, International Transport Forum. G lobal demand for transport has been increasing steadily during the past decades, with the exception of a brief downturn during the 2008 economic crisis. Economic development is still coupled with increased transport demand, and passenger and freight volumes are therefore likely to see continued growth in the foreseeable future. According to the latest scenarios for global transport demand, contained in the International Transport Forum’s “ITF Transport Outlook 2017”, passenger demand could increase twofold between 2015 and 2050, while demand for freight transport could even triple over this period. The expected surge in the movements of passengers and goods is the result of economic development expected over the coming decades, notably in what today are still lowand middle-income countries. The increased sophistication of the transport systems available in these countries will also be an important lever to increase trade and economic growth; investments in improved mobility systems and transport networks should therefore be encouraged. On the other hand, increased transport activity is already proving difficult to manage in many regions, and further growth will bring challenges at all geographical scales: In cities, congestion and local pollution are already creating significant economic costs and causing widespread health problems. These negative effects of increased mobility are bound to get worse unless strong policy interventions counter the current reliance on cars for urban mobility. At the national level, the supply of energy for the transport sector may become an issue. Transport’s carbon emissions will increase 60 % Transport significantly contributes to global warming. Carbon dioxide from mobility represents around 24 % of CO 2 emission from fuel combustion. In OECD countries, CO 2 emissions amounted to just under 4 billion tonnes in 2015, which represents 42 % of all transport-related emissions. In per-capita terms, this translates into approximately 3 tonnes of CO 2 per inhabitant and per year. By contrast, inhabitants in non-OECD economies emit on average 0.5 tonnes of CO 2 per year from transport activities. As the non-OECD world develops its economies, this gap will start to close. In the ITF Transport Outlook 2017’s baseline scenario - which describes a world where no significant effort is made by policy makers besides those already in place or easily foreseeable - transport’s carbon emissions will increase 60 % by 2050. This alarming growth takes place despite much more efficient use of energy. Indeed, looking at the average CO 2 intensity of transport, this is expected to decrease significantly over the coming three-and-a-half decades: For instance, passenger transport will emit only an average of 60 g of CO 2 per passenger-kilometre in 2050 in the baseline scenario, compared to 100 g in 2015. Similar improvements will take place in the freight sector. But because of the expected strong growth in transport demand, these improvements, significant as they may be in themselves, are far from sufficient to stop the growth in transport CO 2 emissions, let alone reverse the trend. Currently existing policies and measures are-not-enough The political ambition to address the gap is there. The ratification of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the submission of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which quantify the planned mitigation efforts of each country, are a clear sign for this. Now the commitments need to be transformed into actions with measureable results, however. Only about half of the NDCs explicitly mention transport as a potential mitiga- Vincent Benezech is a policy analyst at the International Transport Forum - an intergovernmental organisation with 57 member countries which acts as a think tank for transport policies. He heads the team that models scenarios for the future of transport which are published biannually in the “ITF Transport Outlook”. STRATEGIES Statement International Transportation (69) 1 | 2017 7 tion source, and most of these references are vague or only mention targets without linking them to specific policy measures that would achieve them. Some of the proposed carbon mitigation measures also run the risk of only solving short-term issues, while locking in expensive infrastructure. This is for instance the case of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) for shipping, which requires large investment in port infrastructure but cannot be a longterm solution, since LNG still has a non-negligible content of carbon. In any case, the added effects of all the pledges in the NDCs will not be sufficient to achieve the ambition of the agreement. Currently existing policies and measures, even when pushed to their maximum potential, are not enough. Indeed, when combining the most optimistic pathways for all modes, freight and passenger, emissions in 2050 amount to 7,370 million tonnes compared to 13,600 in the baseline. This low-carbon scenario necessitates higher efficiency gains for all vehicles (including alternative fuels for ships), higher fuel taxes, full benefits of vehicle optimisation for road freight and land use and public transport planning in the urban sector. Overall, the mitigation measures envisaged fall short of the aspiration to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as expressed in the Paris Agreement. The exact carbon budget to limit emissions at this level, as well as the share of the budget available to the transport sector, is not precisely known. What is known is that transport emissions even in the low-carbon scenario in the ITF Transport Outlook 2017 overshoot all targets put forward by scientists that would make such a scenario attainable. Efficient transport is critical to economic development Efforts to make transport greener will need to be carefully balanced with preserving transport’s role as an enabler of economic growth. There can be no international trade without transport infrastructure and services. Efficient transport is critical to economic development, as it provides access to jobs, opportunities or social interactions, and there is a growing recognition that accessibility and connectivity should be at the center of transport policies. Interestingly, some of the measures that make transport more environmentally sustainable also improve accessibility. This is most evident in cities, where the promotion of appropriate forms of public transport can limit CO 2 emissions and at the same time provide more equitable access. Decreasing the reliance on cars is also essential to limit the burden of infrastructure building in developing countries, especially in Asia. Most cities with fast-growing populations already suffer from heavily congested road networks. The ITF projections show that maintaining accessibility levels for cars constant will require unsustainable levels of investment in road infrastructure: In Asia, for instance, the total length of urban roads would need to quadruple. Car-based urban mobility creates equity problems also because not everyone can afford a motor vehicle. In this respect it is worrying that accessibility by public transport is especially low in developing cities, where the motorisation rate is also the lowest. Many city dwellers are thus excluded from physically reaching opportunities these cities offer, and they would greatly benefit from better public transport access. However, local governments will not be able to build full-scale transport systems that are also affordable. In many countries, people with low incomes already cannot pay for public transport fares. The coverage of cities will need to be very carefully planned and also take into account the potential of emerging non-traditional mobility services in cities. Digitalisation? The next transport revolution is-already-underway The impact of digitalisation is felt strongly across the transport sector. But the next transport revolution is already underway, based on real-time streams of data that make it easier and more efficient to match supply and demand. The coming decades will witness the arrival of more disruptive technologies, vehicle automation and on-demand transport. Car-sharing is one of the services with the potential to increase accessibility in a sustainable way. Such solutions need to be promoted and accompanied by sound policies. Without these, vehicle automation could turn out to bring more cars onto the roads, with all the associated problems of air pollution, CO 2 emissions, congestion or access. In order to empower people in their personal lives and in their economic activities, while safeguarding the ability of future generations to meet their needs, there is no alternative to making transport sustainable, and policy makers should be ready to tap into the ongoing stream of innovation to achieve this paramount objective. ■ Photo: pixabay.de Statement STRATEGIES