International Transportation | Collection 2020 36 Electrification of road freight transport Potentials and challenges of catenary guided systems for distribution system operators Electric road system, Distribution system operator, Catenary hybrid truck, Electrification scenario, Road freight transport electrification, Electric vehicle The intention of the European Union in mitigating emissions within the road freight transport sector is currently benefitting the general notion of electrification. Technological solutions like catenary hybrid trucks (CHT) are containing direct implications for the energy system. Therefore, the role of the distribution system operator (DSO), which primarily acts as a “fuel” supplier and integrator of systems within an existing system, is particularly noteworthy. To uncover its future systemic tasks it is necessary to determine the strategic potentials and challenges of catenary guided systems (CGS) for DSOs. Adrian Gunter T he intention of the European Union and its member states in mitigating emissions, which can be attributed to the road freight transport sector, is currently benefitting the general notion of electrification. Countries feel impelled to test electrified drive concepts in order to comply with climate targets set. The technolog- Innovative transport systems For the 15 th consecutive time the European Platform of Transport Sciences - EPTS - awards the “European Friedrich-List-Prize”. The prize, dedicated to young transport researchers, is named to honour the extraordinary contributions of Friedrich List, the visionary of transport in Europe of the 19th century, being a distinguished economist and respected transport scientist committed to the European idea. The European Friedrich-List-Prize is awarded for out-standing scientific papers in each of the categories Doctorate paper and Diploma paper, addressing topics in the transport field within a European context. In 2020 in total 12 scientific works have been nominated and evaluated. The award will be conferred during the 18th European Transport Congress in Rostock, Germany, on 13 October 2020. In the following you find a random selection of this year’s submissions summarized in drafts. Rostock Photo: Julia Boldt/ pixabay SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 37 ical options for transport electrification, which are macroeconomically feasible and cope with new and existing regulations, e.g. (EU) 2019/ 1242, are yet to be finally determined. Due to their high energy demand, electric high-duty vehicles such as long-haul trucks may require another source of energy beyond batteries. This could be achieved with range extenders or roadside (catenary) solutions for continuous charging, as it is currently demonstrated in so-called Electric Road Systems (ERS) in countries like Sweden, Italy, and Germany. The roadside electrification of the road-freight transport sector via catenary hybrid trucks (CHT) - conductive power transfer through an overhead line-infrastructure (OL-I) extended with an internal combustion engine, battery storage, or fuel cell - contains direct implications for the energy system. In the interaction between the transport and energy sectors, the role of the distribution system operator (DSO) is particularly noteworthy. At the present stage, DSOs can already be perceived as a centric institution for the distribution of “fuels” for private battery electric vehicles (BEVs), as well as their integration into the existing distribution network structure. Concerning the application of a catenary guided system (CGS), however, the identification of load-based implications, the development and dimensioning of grid infrastructures, as well as the integration of mobile loads have yet not been fully covered. Furthermore, the structural parameters and regulatory conditions, which are crucial for the precise definition of the market design and the associated roles of actors, are not ultimately defined. Objective Until now, the evaluation of the CGS within studies is predominantly directed towards economical, ecological, and technical assessments of CHTs in comparison with its technological alternatives. Existing energy-economic evaluations of CGS are primarily based on key figures such as additional energy consumption, load profiles, and regional distribution of loads. However, there are currently no dedicated studies regarding the direct implications of a CGS for DSOs, which are assessing the associated strategic potentials and challenges. Accordingly, the leading question was investigated: Which factors in a catenary guided environment are relevant to establish scenarios in order to determine the strategic potentials and challenges for DSOs with horizon 2030? Methods The classification of a CGS within the sphere of DSOs was based on the findings of extensive literature research, compared and reassessed with the appraisals of governmental and non-governmental representatives of the German energy sector within the technical, regulatory, and commercial departments. Specifically, a three-stage procedure was pursued to determine relevant factors with a political and regulatory, economic, and technological scope. In Stage 1) “Data sources and data collection”, primary and secondary data were collected in the form of literature research, expert interviews, and discussion groups. Altogether, 17 interviews were conducted, which were deductively and inductively categorized and qualitatively und quantitively classified with the MAXQDA software. The gathered potential influencing factors were deductively attributed to socio-ecological, technical, economic, and political (STEP) perspectives and further reduced to relevant influencing factors via an internal factor assessment. In Stage 2) “Development of scenarios”, the further reduction of influencing factors into key factors was based on the application of an influence matrix, enabling their deductive categorization into superordinate categories. Subsequently, a delimitation and attribution of associated descriptors (characterization of key factors) and quantitative development paths (meta-analysis) were made. Based on the identified key factors, descrip- Figure 1: Categorization of the identified key factors and their descriptors Source: own visualization SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize International Transportation | Collection 2020 38 tors, and development paths, four heterogeneous scenarios were developed. In Stage 3) “Evaluation of the scenarios”, the different scenarios were compared and individually assessed based on a four-step procedure, comprising entrepreneurial evaluation and normative characterization methods. Results In the following, references are made to the findings that have been obtained in the course of empirical research and the analysis of the scenarios. Findings of the empirical research In absolute numbers, 32 potential influencing factors were identified, which have allowed a preliminary quantitative assessment. Accordingly, the political-regulatory aspects were highly relevant, accounting for 63 %. This can be explained by the fact that the technical (19 %) and economic (18 %) factors - regarding CGS - are subject to strong influences, combining merely minor implications (active/ passive ratio) on superordinated aspects. Through the application of a strategic early warning indicator system for DSOs, the number of factors could be further reduced to 20. In the further development process, 13 key factors were identified and assigned to the existing categories, allowing the development of four different scenarios and their key differentiators (parentheses), which are outlined in figure 1. Surrounding factors and external factors are reflecting the political and regulatory objectives, which are connected to the controlled implementation of energy transformation measures. The electrification of longhaul traffic, so far, has been influenced or even dominated by political and regulatory factors. With a high quantity, the German government’s climate targets were named as the decisive key factor. In this connection, the associated structural implications in the context of the energy industry and its potential of influence as well as the digitalization of the energy system in the context of network-related services were highlighted. Also, the acceptance for infrastructure projects was underlined, which should be communicated as a leverage effect to reduce emissions. Therefore, policy measures such as CO 2 -pricing or funding regimes (financing of OL-I) were identified as necessary instruments, mainly due to their regulating characteristics, as well as the influence on the ramp-up of electrified passenger and road-freight vehicles, which in return are crucial in raising the potentials of energy efficiency in the transport sector. Consuming factors were primarily identified based on developments in the areas of technology, volume, and structure of transport, as well as energy efficiency. Subsequently, the originating efficiency targets for the transport sector were regarded as essential to reduce the increased traffic volume and structure and thus the demand for conventional primary energy sources. Producing factors, which are based on the energy transition objectives and the regulatory frameworks, are considering the structures and capacities of renewable and conventional powerplants, as well as the development of storage technologies. Findings of the scenario analysis The adoption of the aforementioned factors and their translation into scenarios allows the identification of potentials and challenges for DSOs, which are explained in table 1. In the assessment of the scenarios, it was found that the potentials for regulated DSOs in the current market run-up (cf. Reference Scenario 2030) are severely limited by political and regulatory factors. This can be substantiated with the currently undetermined market design - regulated or market-based - the specification of operator models, the absence of dedicated billing models, and the associated financial structures of the OL-I, as well as the strong focus on battery-electric trucks. In this respect, the potential for DSOs can be identified in the acquisition of knowledge in the framework of closed projects, due to state-side financing and subsidies for the Photo: Siemens Mobility European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 39 Scenarios Potentials Challenges Reference Scenario 2030 • Risk-free acquisition (financial) of competences in the field of technical management (maintenance, inspection) of OL-I • Practical investigation of load effects on the upstream network infrastructure and integration into network operation management • Continuing regulatory uncertainties regarding the type of network (currently customer installation), lack of technical standards • New technology field (OL-I) requires the acquisition of competence (workload of employees) Conservative Scenario 2030 • Transfer of gained knowledge (planning and consulting) from pilot projects to OL-I projects in other relevant European countries (e.g., Italy, Hungary or Poland) • Loss of systemic relevance to upstream grid operators (TSOs) due to stagnating RES expansion, loss of conventional power plant capacities and the procurement of services on the European capacity market Compliance Scenario 2030 • Extension of the technical management by commercial aspects (measurement and billing) as a service provider • Development of the service sector (establishment of OL-I) • The high commitment of human and financial resources with high financial risk (advance payment for the development of OL-I) • Planning, approval and acceptance risks; availability of operating resources (substations, etc.) Decarbonization Scenario 2030 • Acquisition of new concessions in the form of OL-I (compensation for expiring ones); expansion of the existing business area • Financing security through the application of the grid usage fee system (interest on capital employed) • New requirements for the integrated network planning of OL-I and the upstream distribution network • High investment and operating costs; submission to the regulatory regime (disclosure, cost review, etc.) Table 1: Potentials and challenges of the analyzed scenarios provision of services for the upstream infrastructure. Furthermore, the measurement of load and travel profiles could provide insights to DSOs, on how future grid expansions are to be dimensioned and planned accordingly. In principle, the existing capability profile can be used within this framework, which creates room for comprehensive integration of CGS into the network operation and management. In the context of a politically motivated market rampup of OL-I (cf. Decarbonization Scenario 2030), the participatory framework for DSOs would redefine itself. This is because the OL-I operator would then be determined in a bidding procedure based on tenders (marketbased) or in the form of a concession (regulated). Potentials would arise here primarily for the regulated area, which could operate outside its traditional network area with the construction and operation of OL-I. Nevertheless, regulatory authorities would have to decide on the legal form of the OL-I to determine the general framework and, therefore, its refinancing instruments. As an example, network fees could be mentioned here: It should be discussed whether higher returns can be generated from the participation in OL-I than in the existing network business so that the regulated DSO can operate in an economically sensible manner. Challenges can be identified in high leading times for system relevant infrastructure components, like transformer substations, limiting the possibility to react adequately to the ramp-up of OL-I. In this respect, integrated planning will be indispensable, which will potentially lead to a new and possibly greater complexity in the process of network planning. Accordingly, increased CAPEX and OPEX of OL-I and network infrastructure must be considered, which must be disclosed to regulators (publication of network charges) with the obligation to raise efficiencies. On this basis, there are risks in determining the right network charges to work cost-efficiently, but also to make the system interesting for consumers (CHTs). The lack of experience in measuring and billing of mobile loads, amplified by the division of the measuring mode (substation and CHT), are further increasing the complexity of reporting obligations to upstream network operators. Furthermore, it can be assumed that with the establishment of the infrastructure, a new focus will be put on the operators of infrastructures, as these are now daily visible in the form of OL-I. Conclusion In conclusion, it can be stated that the Decarbonization Scenario 2030 offers by far the highest potentials but also the highest challenges for DSOs. In the interest of the technological ramp-up, the economic compatibility, and the high level of complexity currently associated, it would be advisable to refrain from doing so at this stage. Within current pilot projects, DSOs might rather focus on the intelligence of the future OL-I and its control possibilities, which is strongly dependent on the regulatory framework, the degree of digitization, and social acceptance. For a realistic conclusion, the application of realistic operating phases is necessary to make the effects measurable outside the methodology. In the process of a further analysis, an extended cost analysis would have to be carried out, taking the individual threshold values and calculation rates into account. Nevertheless, the identified factors can form a common basis for European distribution system operators - as common European rules are in effect - thus allowing the framework of the scenarios to be adapted to individual conditions. ■ Adrian Gunter Student, Nuertingen-Geislingen University (HfWU), Nuertingen (DE) adrian_gunter@t-online.de