ropean semi-trailer manufacturers revealed that the production ratio between craneable and non-craneable semi-trailers has remained constant over the years, with semi-trailer production seeing growth overall during the same time. There are a number of technology providers in the market that facilitate access for non-craneable semi-trailers to intermodal transport through horizontal transhipment technologies. Among the leaders in this segment in Europe are CargoBeamer (see Figure 1), Helrom (see Figure 2) and Moda- 1 Introduction Semi-trailers stand out as the predominant loading unit in the European continental transportation segment. In Germany, for instance, 72% of road transport activity in 2022 was conducted by semi-trailers (Federal Motor Transport Authority, 2023). Approximately 95% of all semi-trailers are non-craneable, meaning they cannot be vertically shifted to rail without special equipment (e.g., NiKRASA, r2L). An interview conducted in April 2024 by the authors of this article with one of the leading Eulohr (see Figure 3). These companies have demonstrated rapid network expansion along with increased marketing efforts in recent years. Concurrently, there is notable demand for craneable semi-trailers for vertical transhipment using conventional gantry cranes (see Figure 4). This paper aims to outline current developments and discuss possible future scenarios in intermodal semi-trailer transportation across Western European countries (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Poland and the Netherlands), while considering both Quo Vadis, Intermodal Semi-Trailer Transportation? Intermodal, ModalShift, SemiTrailer, Greendeal, Truckonrail, horizontaltransshipment, transportpolicymeasures Semi-trailers stand out as the predominant loading unit in the European continental transportation segment. In Germany, for instance, 72% of road transport activity in 2022 was conducted by semitrailers. Approximately 95% of all semi-trailers are non-craneable, meaning they cannot be vertically shifted to rail without special equipment (e.g., NiKRASA, r2L). There are a number of technology providers in the market that facilitate access for non-craneable semi-trailers to intermodal transport through horizontal transhipment technologies. This paper aims to outline current developments and discuss possible future scenarios in intermodal semi-trailer transportation across Western European countries (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Poland and the Netherlands), while considering both vertical and horizontal transhipment technologies. Eugen Truschkin, Emin Huseynov, Remmon Sarka DOI: 10.24053/ IV-2024-0073 International Transportation (76) Collection ǀ 2024 10 vertical and horizontal transhipment technologies. In 2022, Germany, France, Spain, Poland and Italy accounted for almost two thirds of the total tonnage transported in the EU (Eurostat, 2024c). In this paper, we have opted to use the broader term “intermodal transport” rather than the specific term “combined transport” owing to its wider dissemination in the transportation industry. The paper examines the prospects of both types of technologies by analysing global macro trends, business models and transport policy measures. Furthermore, a survey was conducted with various stakeholders from the railway sector during RailFreight® Summit 2024 (15-17 April in Warsaw) to assess possible future outcomes. The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 discusses macro trends influencing intermodal transportation, followed by Section 3, which explores the specific impact of business models in freight forwarding on the modal shift. In Section 4, we provide a brief overview of existing EU transport policy measures for the selected countries which impact both horizontal and vertical transhipment options. Section 5 presents the survey results of our field research, while Section 6 highlights current developments in the intermodal transport market in the EU related to semi-trailers. Section 7 discusses observed trends, and finally, Section 8 concludes with our view on the prospects for both technology types. 2. Macro trends influencing the intermodal transportation market In today’s interconnected and rapidly evolving global landscape, intermodal transportation has emerged as a pivotal component of the supply chain, facilitating the seamless movement of goods across various modes of transportation. The dynamics of intermodal transportation are not solely shaped by industryspecific factors; rather, they are deeply intertwined with broader macro trends. These macro trends influencing intermodal transportation do not generally fall into isolated social, economic, technological or political (regulatory) categories, but instead represent a combination of these aspects. Understanding these multifaceted macro trends is crucial for stakeholders in the transportation and logistics sectors to navigate the complexities and capitalize on the opportunities presented by the evolving landscape. Here we are attempting to identify and describe the key relevant macro trends shaping intermodal transportation today, exploring how they are redefining the industry and what it means for the future of global trade and logistics. It should be also noted that both road and rail components of intermodal transport chains are susceptible to external effects. Thus, the described macro trends affect both road and rail transport but to a different extent and bear certain specifics in each freight segment. Industry vulnerability to economic downturns Transportation is inherently sensitive to economic fluctuations and external shocks. Economic downturns and unforeseen events, such as the global pandemic, have profoundly impacted the transportation business and, by extension, intermodal transport. These disruptions have not only altered demand patterns but have also highlighted the vulnerabilities and adaptability of intermodal transportation and its separate elements. Lower consumer spending and reduced business activities typically lead to a decline in freight demand, increasing competition among trucking companies and driving down freight rates. Despite this, road transportation in the EU showed resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic, with only a 1% decline in volumes (tkm) in 2020 compared to 2019 (Eurostat, 2021), while rail transport saw a 6.1% reduction over the same year (Eurostat, 2021). These indicators might seem contradictory at first, as there are numerous factors supporting the idea of stronger resilience of railways against the short and mediumterm effects of the latest economic downturn. First, longer waiting times at the borders, quarantine requirements and other COVID-19 related limitations jeopardized international freight transport by road and led to delays and losses in the road freight sector. Secondly, medium and long-term contracting practice (unlike spot contracts, which are widespread in road transportation) protects railway operators and freight forwarders from initial drops in market demand, giving rail greater market stability. However, one factor that might be playing a major role supporting road transportation is the cargo structure or the nature of the transported goods. In other words, various commodity groups are affected in a different way. While rail transport, which is heavily used for bulk and raw materials, can suffer when industrial production declines and the demand for freight transport subsequently drops, road transportation still enjoys a relatively stable market for transporting FMCG and perishables. This is because consumers prioritize non-discretionary spending on essential goods like food and medical supplies during crises, a trend supported by Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, which suggests that consumption of essential goods increases when GDP declines (Loxton et al., 2020). Figure 1: CargoBeamer technology (Source: https: / / www.cargobeamer.de/ ) Figure 2: Helrom technology (Source: https: / / en.helrom.com/ trailer-rail) Figure 3: Modalohr technology (Source: https: / / www.lohr.fr/ catalogue/ the-lohr-systemterminals/ ) Figure 4: Craneable semi-trailer at DUSS Terminal Hamburg Billwerder (Source: Iuliia Kozina, DB Engineering & Consulting 2024) DOI: 10.24053/ IV-2024-0073 International Transportation (76) Collection ǀ 2024 11 ry technologies, efficient driver training, and lower friction of steel wheels on steel tracks. Naturally, this implies higher sensitivity of road transportation toward the fluctuations of the fuel prices. Conversely, rail transport is less affected by diesel prices, benefiting from a transition to electric and hybrid locomotives. According to the European Commission (2023), approximately 80% of rail freight in Europe uses electric traction, mitigating diesel dependency. However, rising electricity costs have raised concerns about rail transport’s competitiveness. To counter this, measures like Germany’s electricity price cap, effective until 2030, aim to maintain rail’s advantage and prevent a modal shift back to road transport. With regard to road transport, current trends indicate that it will gradually catch up to rail in terms of transitioning to electric power in the medium to long term. Currently, 96.9% of all trucks run on diesel or petrol (see Figure 5), with only 0.1% being electric (ACEA, 2023). The EU’s commitment to achieving carbon-neutrality by 2050 is driving significant investment in green transport solutions. In response to this new market reality, major truck manufacturers are de- Fuel costs, efficiency and transition towards sustainability The cost of fuel is another important external factor that affects the transport industry. In this context, rail is significantly more fuel-efficient and less dependent on diesel fuels in general. This is attributed to railway transportation’s superior operating power-to-freight volume ratio, meaning significantly lower energy per ton kilometre consumption than trucks. Studies indicate rail fuel efficiency can be three to six times higher than road, depending on route and operational specifics (e.g., speed and number of stops en route). For instance, CSX Corporation (2023), a major railway and transport company in the United States, reports up to 3.9 times higher fuel efficiency for freight trains compared to trucks. Similarly, the Association of American Railroads (2023) confirms that rail transport is three to four times more fuel efficient than trucking. Moreover, Rail Freight Forward (2023), a European coalition of rail freight companies, refers to the Austrian Federal Environment Agency (2017) and states that rail is six times more fuel efficient than road transport. This greater fuel efficiency is attributed to factors such as modernized fleet, energy recoveveloping and introducing new hydrogen and electric truck models. In 2020, European truck manufacturers Scania, Daimler, Volvo, MAN, DAF and Ford jointly committed to achieving full decarbonisation by 2050, with only electric or hydrogen trucks being manufactured from 2040 onwards. Despite these efforts, rail and intermodal transport remain significantly more energy-efficient and eco-friendly than road transport. Growing awareness of sustainability and strict environmental regulations are key drivers increasing the demand for intermodal transportation. Driver availability Labour supply is a critical factor in the transportation sector. The European trucking industry faces a significant driver shortage, with over 380,000 unfilled positions (a 10% shortage) in 2021, projected to reach 745,000 by 2028 (UNECE; IRU, 2023). According to a Statista survey (2021), 45% of fleet operators cite a lack of skilled personnel and 46% cite difficulty in attracting young people as primary reasons for the shortage (see Figure 6). In contrast, although there is also a locomotive driver shortage in Europe, it is much less significant. The current shortage in Germany is around 750 drivers but it is being compensated for by involving and training foreign workforce. The truck driver shortage is one of the reasons behind the general tendency of shifting to rail, although it should only be regarded as a situational factor rather than a primary reason for the shift. The shortage affects first and last mile deliveries to a lesser extent, where trucks cover shorter distances, allowing higher turnover. In the future, the truck driver shortage can be partially alleviated through the introduction of autonomous driving technology and by attracting more foreign drivers. Digitalization and telematics Adoption of digital technologies and telematics systems in intermodal transport improves operational efficiency, tracking and route optimization. Digitalization and automation practices are especially important for intermodal transportation due to the higher number of interfaces between the participants and components of the logistics chain, which calls for greater alignment and synchronization. Advanced technologies like wireless communication, sensors, and online platforms propel digital transformation, improving business performance and setting new quality standards. Key areas of digitalization include digital capacity management, wagon tracking, autonomous train operation, cybersecurity, predictive maintenance, e-documentation, electronic do- Figure 5: Truck transportation still relies almost entirely on conventional fuels (Source: ACEA, 2023). Figure 6: Reasons for the truck driver shortage according to fleet operators (Source: Statista, 2021). LOGISTICS  Semi-trailer DOI: 10.24053/ IV-2024-0073 International Transportation (76) Collection ǀ 2024 12 cument exchange, and ETCS Level 3. There are various digital platforms on the market that provide digital services, including the following: ƒ Digital Capacity Management (DCM) platforms are essential tools in the intermodal freight transportation sector, helping optimize infrastructure capacity and asset utilization. Here are some examples of Digital Capacity Management platforms used by leading intermodal operators and logistics providers: - SPEAK Capacity Management System - Rail Facilities Portal (RFP) - Intermodal Capacity Exchange (ICE) ƒ Digital Marketplace platforms for intermodal transport provide space for operators to list their capacities and services and for forwarders to book these services. Some notable platforms in this sphere are: - Rail-Flow - Modility ƒ Transport Management System (TMS) platforms are crucial tools for managing and optimizing transportation operations, including route planning, freight booking, carrier selection, shipment tracking and document exchange. Here are some examples of leading TMS platforms used by logistics providers, shippers and carriers worldwide: - WOLF (Web Oriented Logistics Framework) platform - Transporeon - Oracle Transportation Management (OTM) The market extends beyond the examples provided, reflecting a dynamically evolving landscape. As the demand for digitalization in intermodal transportation grows, new platforms and solutions continue to emerge, offering innovative ways to optimize and streamline transportation operations across the supply chain. Infrastructure conditions and capacity Congestion in rail networks and at intermodal terminals can lead to delays and reduced operational efficiency. However, various European projects on capacity improvement are continuously addressing this issue. For instance, a number of initiatives within the European TEN-T railway network prioritize addressing current challenges related to railway infrastructure capacity and conditions. While a major issue for the rail segments of intermodal transport chains, infrastructure capacity constraints generally have less of an impact on road transportation due to the higher availability of alternative road routes compared to rail. Technological improvements Advancements in technology are gradually influencing and transforming the landscape of intermodal freight transportation, particularly with the emergence and increasing maturity of modern horizontal transhipment technologies. Horizontal transhipment uses specialized equipment and infrastructure, which allows seamless transfer of semi-trailers between road and rail and provides an alternative to conventional intermodal operations at terminals. In addition to advancements in terminals and infrastructure, developments in rolling stock further bolster the competitiveness and sustainability of rail transportation. The introduction of more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly locomotives (e.g., hybrid locomotives) increases operational flexibility, lowers operating costs and reduces environmental impact. At the same time, increased automation and the introduction of autonomous driving can improve the efficiency of road transport in the foreseeable future, reducing labour costs and enhancing safety in semi-trailer transportation. 3. Business models in the transportation market and their impact on the modal shift “Over the time freight forwarders’ role has changed. Instead of only acting as an intermediary, many freight forwarders actually became transport operators and have their own transportation assets. Furthermore, to achieve competitive rates, most of them are holding contracts or special arrangements with other transport operators. This makes them less neutral in their decision-making.” (Vassallo, 2007). This section lays out the reasoning for the behaviour of freight forwarders described above in greater detail. Figure 7 illustrates possible contractual arrangements in the road freight transport market. It demonstrates that a shipper can either hire a road hauler directly or outsource the transport to a forwarder. In the latter case, the forwarder can act as an intermediary or operate the transport using its own fleet. If acting as an intermediary, the forwarder can perform the contract with another forwarder or hire a road hauler for transportation. In our work we therefore make a distinction between two general forms of dispatching among forwarders: own fleet or subcontracted fleet. One way of hiring subcontractors involves utilizing spot market internet platforms (e.g., Trans.eu, TimoCom), which connect the supply side with the demand side. Given that the average duration of partnerships in road-based networks is 7.6 years (Schmoltzi & Wallenburg, 2010), the nature of the “regular” relationship between two parties can be considered closer and more integrated than in the case of spot market contracts. Using the framework developed by Zinn and Parasuraman (1997), the relationship between a forwarder and a road hauler can be described as focused. Such relationships are characterized by a strong commitment to using partner resources. The general finding of Truschkin et al. (2014) suggests that transport subcontracting could be considered a barrier to the modal shift from road to intermodal transport. Empirical data supported this central hypothesis, indicating that the current form of dispatching influences the willingness to transition to intermodal transport. Specifically, forwarders that hire subcontractors (road haulers) in road freight transport exhibit less willingness to switch transport modes, even when there is a competitive advantage to doing so. It appears that companies, regardless of the form of dispatching, are locked into their core competence: road transport. This tendency is less pronounced in cases where companies have their own fleet. Additionally, research by Truschkin et al. (2014) revealed a correlation between company size and the willingness to shift to rail, with larger companies finding intermodal transport more attractive. In summary, apart from additional hard factors (such as the performance criteria of a transport mode, where transport cost and time are the most prominent), the business model of the forwarder can be considered an important factor that impacts the mode choice. 4. Transport policy measures supporting vertical and horizontal transhipment This section focuses on current policies and initiatives targeting environmentally sustainable transportation modes, mainly concentrating on intermodal transport by semi-trailers. First, the section assesses EUwide goals. Second, it explores policies implemented by specific countries. European policies The European Union has created a framework of policies and measures to facilitate Figure 7: Contractual forms in road freight transport Semi-trailer  LOGISTICS DOI: 10.24053/ IV-2024-0073 International Transportation (76) Collection ǀ 2024 13 EUR 15 million to Helrom in 2023 (HELROM Trailer Rail, 2023). Helrom, a company based in Germany, appeals to the market segment of non-craneable semi-trailers with Megaswing wagons, providing a one-stop-shop solution, offering traction, wagons and terminal operations from a single source. The Fleet Renewal Program for Heavy Commercial Vehicles (“Flottenerneuerungsprogramm für schwere Nutzfahrzeuge”) promotes trailer use by subsidizing intelligent trailer technologies and CO2 reduction measures in new vehicles. It also provides funding for upgrading non-craneable to craneable semi-trailers. The program offers up to 60% of the validated purchase price for each ITT measure, capped at EUR 5,000 per measure, and has a budget of EUR 257 million, valid until 2025 (eurotransport.de, 2022). Spain Spain’s situation vividly shows that rail freight transport has stagnated for over 20 years compared to Germany and other European countries. However, the government has implemented several provisions to revive rail freight transportation, including the Mercancías 30 strategy and the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (ALG Global, 2023). The European Commission has also agreed to a EUR 2.5 million scheme proposed by Spain to encourage the purchase of craneable semi-trailers. The effort, co-financed by the Recovery and Resilience Mechanism (RRF), will cover some of the expenses of investing in acquiring craneable semi-trailers (European Commission, 2021). Furthermore, the Spanish government has given a EUR 17.3 million boost to Ermewa Ibéricato expand and improve its rail freight activities in Spain. Ermewa Ibérica will use the funding to manufacture 150 Shimmns coil transport wagons and 50 state-of-the-art pocket wagons (adapted for carrying semitrailers) that will be carried out in 2024. (Railtarget, 2024). France In France, the rail transport sector is expected to improve significantly, as there are plans to invest EUR 100 billion in rail upgrades by 2040 (Railway Technology, 2023). The French government is also adopting subsidies for wagonload freight and general infrastructure improvements. France intends to boost wagonload services by shifting from road to rail freight. The French authorities will provide EUR 450 million in financial support by the end of 2025. These subsidies are expected to cover 30% of first and last-mile service costs (International Rail Journal, 2022). In addition, the French government plans to increase rail’s share of the French market by 2030 from 32 billion 2030. Therefore, further investments and careful planning is needed to increase the availability of terminals across the Trans- European Transport Network (European Commission, 2022). TEN-T Regulation (EU) No. 1315/ 2013 is a fundamental part of the European Union’s Trans-European Transport network, which is a key tool in developing an integrated, efficient, multimodal and high-quality transport infrastructure in the EU. It covers railways, inland waterways, short sea shipping routes, roads connecting urban nodes, airports, maritime and inland ports, and terminals (European Commission, 2013). This policy aims to shift up to 30% of long-distance road freight over 300 km to other transport modes by 2030, increasing to over 50% by 2050 (European Commission, 2011). The European Union has an additional initiative for intermodal transport with the Combined Transport Council Directive 92/ 106/ EEC. This directive lowers the authorization barriers for intermodal transport (eliminates quantitative restrictions, exempts road cabotage restrictions on road section and provides financial grants for promoting certain modes of intermodal transport) (European Commission, 1992). The directive was revised on 7 November 2023 improving its definition, increasing the benefits and introducing transparency and accountability. The amendment extends the scope of the directive to various intermodal transport activities and introduces the application of rules through eFTI platforms. Other benefits include being exempted from driving bans, discounted infrastructure charges, exemption from registration fees, and the establishment of a terminal construction fund based on the status quo An analysis of EU countries shows that national programs and subsidies promote intermodal transport. Below is an overview of country-specific measures supporting intermodal semi-trailer transportation. Germany The updated German government’s funding guidelines for transhipment facilities in combined transport ( “Richtlinie zur Förderung von Umschlaganlagen des Kombinierten Verkehrs” ) through the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport, came into effect on 1 December 2022 (Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport, 2024). These guidelines aim to encourage more extensive investment in intermodal terminals, both vertical and horizontal. Per these guidelines, the project’s budget should equal or exceed EUR 100,000; aid can cover up to 80% of the investment. Another policy measure provides a dedicated support for horizontal transhipment technologies. For example, the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport allocated the transition to a more sustainable and green transportation system. A prominent example of these policies is the European Green Deal, which aims for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (European Commission, 2024). The main objective is for policies to be consistent with the European Union’s overarching objective of reducing net greenhouse gas by at least 55% by 2030 relative to 1990 (European Council, 2024). To achieve this goal, Fit for 55 includes measures to update the scope of the EU emissions trading system. The new ETS 2 uses a cap-and-trade system, which implies a predefined cap on total greenhouse gas emissions from regulated installations. The ETS 2 DIRECTIVE 2003/ 87/ EC requires energy and fuel suppliers to purchase allowances for their emissions and includes emissions from road transport, residential, and other industrial sectors previously excluded from the EU ETS(European Commission, 2023). This expansion is likely to boost interest in rail transport, a greener and more eco-friendly alternative to road and air transport. In addition, to standardize the calculation of emissions and to make reporting easier, the EU implemented the CountEmissionsEU policy in July 2023 which adopted the ISO 14083: 2023 calculation standard to increase transparency in carbon emission reporting (International Road Transport Union, 2023). In addition to the CountEmissionsEU policy described above, the EU’s Eurovignette Directive (EU 2022/ 362) applies road pricing to vehicles over 3.5 tonnes through the vignette (a time-based fee) and the toll (a distance-based fee) (European Union, 2022). This directive impacts road freight transport costs and operations, potentially increasing reliance on rail transportation and making intermodal solutions more attractive. Moreover, the Eurovignette Directive allows for higher charges on more polluting trucks, promoting cleaner vehicles and alternative transportation modes. Along with Fit for 55, RePowerEU is another essential policy for the European Union. The policy became critical after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. RepowerEU began in May 2022 and is vital to the EU’s energy conservation efforts, clean energy generation, energy source diversification and commitment to the wider European transformation toward a greener, more sustainable transportation network (the European Council, 2022). The EU states must address several challenges to implement policies for sustainable intermodal transportation. Existing transhipment capacity in the EU is not expected to meet the demand driven by the planned expansion of network capacity by LOGISTICS  Semi-trailer DOI: 10.24053/ IV-2024-0073 International Transportation (76) Collection ǀ 2024 14 Results Survey respondents represent various sectors within the transportation market, ranging from railway operators to individuals from the education sector. Approximately half of the respondents are logistics service providers and railway operators, while the remaining respondents come from various other fields of business. The following figure (see Figure 8) illustrates the fields of business of the survey respondents. When considering macro trends, particularly the impact of rising fuel costs, respondents generally anticipate that rising fuel costs will further incentivize a shift to rail and intermodal transportation. Twelve respondents support this view, attributing it to the direct correlation between fuel costs and the competitiveness of road transportation compared to rail transportation, which is much more fuel efficient over long distances. Fourteen respondents express a neutral view regarding the influence of fuel cost increases on the shift to rail transportation, while three respondents disagree that rising fuel expenses will stimulate a further shift to rail and intermodal transportation. Figure 9 below illustrates the distribution of the collected responses. Another macro trend the survey explored was the development of modern technical solutions in road transportation. Respondents generally agree that the advancement of technical solutions, will enable the trucking industry to maintain its substantial market share. Thirteen respondents support this view, attributing it to the lies on highly coordinated work with other European countries. To support this, the Dutch government offers subsidies to install ERTMS (European Rail Traffic Management System) and is arranging to build new railway lines. ERTMS is a single signalling and speed control system on all European railways. Other than the policies to upgrade the existing fleet, no direct policy measures supporting intermodal transportation with semi-trailers could be identified for the Netherlands. 5. Field research Methodology The authors of this article designed a questionnaire for the purpose of addressing key elements of the aforementioned sections, namely macro trends and transport policy measures, where the general perspective of the respondents was examined. In addition to the sections mentioned, the questionnaire included a question regarding the potential development scenarios of semi-trailer transhipment technologies. The questionnaire comprised one A4 page in total. 150 copies were printed and distributed at the reception desk of the RailFreight® Summit 2024 (15-17 April in Warsaw) during the registration process for attendees. Conference participants were then able to submit the completed survey forms to the reception desk at the conference. A total of 29 responses were collected. The results are summarized below. tonne-kilometres to 64 billion tonne-kilometres. The French government’s measures also involve unifying freight operators by forming the Alliance 4F group (Railtarget, 2021). Other than the government’s plans to increase rail capacity and improve the existing infrastructure, no direct policy measures supporting intermodal transportation with semi-trailers could be identified for France. Italy In Italy, similar to other European countries, there are measures to promote a shift towards rail transportation. The FerroBonus incentive, adopted by the European Council in 2016 to back the modal shift from road to rail, has been extended by the European Council and the Italian government until the end of 2027 (RailFreight.com, 2023). Funding will be granted for 2023-2027, with a minimum of EUR 22 million available yearly (RailFreight.com, 2023). We did not identify any direct policy measures in Italy to support intermodal transportation with semi-trailers. Poland Similarly to other EU countries, Poland’s transportation strategy is to increase the rail’s market share. Poland has a higher proportion of long-distance goods transported by road than other European states, with 75% of goods carried over distances above 300 km by trucks, compared to the EU average of 40.5% in 2020. (Polandweekly, 2024). The scarcity and irregular distribution of intermodal terminals and transhipment hubs is the largest obstacle to overcome to increase of rail’s market share. To address this challenge, the European Council allocated EUR 130 million to develop Polish railways, mainly for investments in road, rail and intermodal terminals (UIIR, 2024). The European Commission has also approved EUR 180 million in funding for investments in intermodal transport within Poland. This measure will help to cover up to 50% of eligible costs through direct grants until the end of June 2026 (UIIR, 2024). Furthermore Poland is increasing its efforts to combat CO2 emissions through the procurement of pocket wagons, a project spearheaded by CEUTP. The project includes plans to purchase 92 wagons/ pocket platforms enabling intermodal trailers to be loaded and transported. (Centre for EU Transport Projects, 2021). Netherlands Around 80% of rail freight in or from the Netherlands is designed for another country. Rail transportation in the country re- Figure 8: Fields of business of the respondents Figure 9: Distribution of responses collected on the effects of fuel cost on transportation modes Semi-trailer  LOGISTICS DOI: 10.24053/ IV-2024-0073 International Transportation (76) Collection ǀ 2024 15 gure 11 below shows the distribution of the collected responses. Information on policies promoting the adoption of vertical and horizontal semitrailer technologies does not appear to be readily accessible to industry players, as fourteen respondents generally disagree that there is a good level of accessible information on transport policy measures supporting vertical and horizontal semi-trailer transhipment. Eight respondents express a neutral view on this issue, while five respondents believe there is a sufficient level of information that is accessible to them. Figure 12 below shows the distribution of the collected responses. When exploring the potential development of semi-trailer transhipment technologies, the prevailing opinion among respondents points to an EU network with compatible vertical and horizontal technologies operating within one intermodal network. Twenty respondents see this scenario as a likely reality. In contrast, seven participants foresee a fragmented EU network characterized by non-collaborating providers of technologies, where different technologies have their own routes and are not compatible with other vertical or horizontal technologies. Figure 13 below shows the data distribution. 6. Semi-trailer intermodal market development The theoretical market potential for trailers in the EU’s intermodal transport can be determined using the latest Eurostat statistics (see Table 1 and Table 2), which provide data on the overall number of semi-trailers (across both load capacity categories) for selected countries, as well as the total for the EU. The main takeaways can be summarized as follows: ƒ The overall number of semi-trailers in the EU has increased from 866,817 in 2013 to 2,302,333 in 2022 (countries like Spain, France and the Netherlands first started providing data in 2014 or later). ƒ Applying a 95% share (the share of non-craneable semi-trailers) to the overall number of semi-trailers in 2022 (2,302,333) would result in 2,187,216 noncraneable semi-trailers in the EU. This theoretical market potential for the modal shift from road to rail is constrained by the distance range and the prevailing business models in the transportation market (see Section 3). One of the primary goals of the EU is to shift 30% of road freight over 300 km to other modes such as rail or waterborne transport by 2030, and to shift more than 50% by 2050 (European Commission, 2011). According to the latest UIC report (UIC, 2023), 46.1% of total freight transport The next survey question aims to explore transport policy measures, particularly the impact of subsidies offered by governments to promote and encourage the adoption of vertical and horizontal semi-trailer transhipment within the European Union. Eleven respondents acknowledge the positive impact that subsidies have on vertical and horizontal transhipment. Twelve respondents express a neutral view regarding this issue, while six contend that the government subsidies have not encouraged the adoption of vertical and horizontal semi-trailer transhipment technologies within the region. Fidirect impact that technological advancements may have on enhancing vehicle fuel efficiency, cost-effectiveness and autonomy, thereby impacting the competitiveness of road transportation compared to rail and other transportation modes. Eleven respondents express a neutral view regarding the influence of technological advancements on the competitiveness of trucking, while five respondents generally disagree that technological advancements will allow trucking to sustain its high market share. Figure 10 below shows the distribution of the collected responses. 4 10 8 5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Please rate the accessibility of information regarding transport policy measures supporting vertical and horizontal semitrailers transshipment within the EU on a scale from 1 to 5 1 - Strongly disagree 2 - Disagree 3 - Neutral 4 - Agree 5 - Strongly agree 2 4 12 9 2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% The subsidies offered by governments have encouraged the adoption of vertical and horizontal semi-trailers transshipment technologies within the EU 1 - Strongly disagree 2 - Disagree 3 - Neutral 4 - Agree 5 - Strongly agree 4 10 8 5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Please rate the accessibility of information regarding transport policy measures supporting vertical and horizontal semitrailers transshipment within the EU on a scale from 1 to 5 1 - Strongly disagree 2 - Disagree 3 - Neutral 4 - Agree 5 - Strongly agree 2 4 12 9 2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% The subsidies offered by governments have encouraged the adoption of vertical and horizontal semi-trailers transshipment technologies within the EU 1 - Strongly disagree 2 - Disagree 3 - Neutral 4 - Agree 5 - Strongly agree 1 / 1 Figure 10: Distribution of responses collected on the effect that modern technical solutions in trucking will have on market share Figure 11: Distribution of responses collected on subsides for horizontal semi-trailer transhipment technologies within the EU Figure 12: Distribution of responses collected on the accessibility of information on policies supporting vertical and horizontal semi-trailer transhipment within the EU Figure 13: Responses collected on potential scenarios of the development of semi-trailer transhipment technologies Global EU network (compatible vertical/ horizontal technologies operating in one intermodal network Global EU non-collaborating networks (own routes non-compatible with further vertical/ horizontal technologies) Estimation of the development of semi-trailer transhipment technologies LOGISTICS  Semi-trailer DOI: 10.24053/ IV-2024-0073 International Transportation (76) Collection ǀ 2024 16 major driver of railway haulage growth in Europe. The semi-trailer segment appears to contribute the most to this growth, with an annual growth rate of 12% among all intermodal loading units in the case of Germany. This section discusses possible drivers of this development - both with positive and negative impacts - based on the insights gathered in the previous sections. Positive drivers impacting intermodal semi-trailer transportation Vulnerability to economic downturns and fluctuations varies across different commodity types, with a stronger impact observed on rail transportation compared to road. This mostly stems from the very nature of consumption and consumer behaviour during the periods of crisis, followed by the changes in industrial output of various commodities, ultimately affecting transportation volumes. At the same time, intermodal transportation of semi-trailers carrying primarily essential and non-discretional goods are not impacted as much as rail transport. This notion is further supported by recent statistical data (see Figure 14), which indicates a less than 1% decrease in intermodal transport volumes during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, thus demonstrating notable resilience of intermodal transportation compared to railway transport. Innovations in digitalization and telematics systems enhance operational efficiency, tracking and route optimization, streamlining transportation operations across the supply chain and encouraging more decis- 2011 and 2021 (in terms of tkm), while overall rail freight transport performance increased by 3% in the same period. In Germany, the share of intermodal transport in total rail freight increased from 29% in 2018 (UIC, 2021) to 43.1% in 2021 (UIC, 2023), surpassing the European average indicator of 30% (UIC, 2023). Overall, a similar trend to a previous survey (Truschkin, 2023) can be observed - the strongest increase in rail transport performance is generated in intermodal transport, specifically in the segment of non-accompanied semi-trailers in the case of Germany. As indicated in Figure 15, the increase in the share of non-accompanied semi-trailers in intermodal transport is mainly driven by import, export and transit transports, with transit routes showing a consistent increase in transport performance in the observation period. In the context of the insights provided regarding the business models in the transportation market (see Section 3), see Figure 16, which provides an overview of the ownership structure of semi-trailers by company size in commercial road haulage in Germany in 2020. Of the total 216,738 semitrailers, 68% are owned by micro and smallsized enterprises (up to 49 employees) as per the EU SME definition 2003/ 361 (staff headcount). The following section discusses possible drivers of the depicted development. 7. Discussion Continuous growth can be observed in intermodal transportation, which serves as a performance in the EU (excluding sea and air) in 2020 was conducted by road on distances under 300 km, which corresponds to 59.5% of overall road transport performance in the EU in 2020 on distances under 300 km. It is evident that the market potential is significantly constrained due to a high number of semi-trailers being used for short distances (no EU-wide data on semi-trailer transport distances could be obtained). The next figure (see Figure 14) shows transport performance (tkm) by loading unit in intermodal transport in Germany. Germany was selected as a case due to its role as the largest contributor to rail freight transport performance in the EU, with 125 billion tkm in 2022, or 31.3% of total EU performance (Publications Office of the European Union, 2024). The main takeaways can be summarized as follows: ƒ Overall transport performance (tkm) in intermodal transport in Germany more than doubled from 25.78 billion tkm to 50.03 billion tkm between 2005 and 2023. ƒ Semi-trailers (non-accompanied transport) continue to see the most dynamic increase, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% among all types of intermodal transport units (CAGR containers/ swap bodies = 2%; CAGR ROLA = 6%) between 2005 and 2023, reaching the historical peak of 34.96% in 2023. According to UIC (2023), the overall transport performance of intermodal transport in Europe increased by 51% between TIME 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Germany 14,598 14,650 15,032 15,579 16,955 17,948 20,366 21,714 23,748 24,847 Spain no data 13,887 13,793 13,717 13,768 13,695 13,589 13,587 13,568 13,581 France no data no data no data no data no data 17,541 17,684 17,598 17,956 18,279 Italy no data no data no data no data no data no data no data no data no data no data Netherlands no data no data 11,245 11,329 11,663 11,548 11,663 11,817 12,387 12,453 Poland 42,819 29,272 43,521 30,155 30,405 31,159 32,037 32,817 33,852 34,724 TOTAL selected countries 57,417 57,809 83,591 70,780 72,791 91,891 95,339 97,533 101,511 103,884 EU TOTAL (where data availab le) 118,652 109,887 136,297 125,744 131,639 155,244 155,712 157,342 158,525 162,376 % selected countries of EU TOTAL (where data availab le) 48% 53% 61% 56% 55% 59% 61% 62% 64% 64% TIME 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Germany 238,170 244,187 251,089 259,659 268,799 280,275 285,834 287,431 293,783 301,741 Spain no data 219,545 225,962 234,568 241,434 247,145 250,856 254,590 260,136 266,484 France no data no data no data no data no data 281,507 288,719 292,101 297,803 301,848 Italy no data no data no data no data no data no data no data no data no data no data Netherlands no data no data 67,435 68,191 69,853 72,022 72,228 71,128 72,333 73,955 Poland 234,519 256,643 276,722 305,038 327,416 354,672 378,856 398,605 433,022 460,838 TOTAL selected countries 472,689 720,375 821,208 867,456 907,502 1,235,621 1,276,493 1,303,855 1,357,077 1,404,866 EU TOTAL (where data availab le) 748,165 1,035,069 1,175,095 1,250,696 1,378,779 1,865,591 1,894,097 1,941,365 2,035,947 2,139,957 % selected countries of EU TOTAL (where data availab le) 63% 70% 70% 69% 66% 66% 67% 67% 67% 66% Table 1: Number of semi-trailers (20-30 t load capacity) (Source: Eurostat 2024b) Table 2: Number of semi-trailers (30-40 t load capacity) (Source: Eurostat 2024b) Semi-trailer  LOGISTICS DOI: 10.24053/ IV-2024-0073 International Transportation (76) Collection ǀ 2024 17 modes of transportation, including rail and intermodal transport. Rail transportation is characterized by significantly higher fuel efficiency compared to road transport. Considering the fuel price fluctuations on the world markets, higher fuel efficiency implies more cost stability in rail transport compared to road. Inin the number of semi-trailers in Europe, of which 95% are estimated to be non-craneable, enhances the total market potential of intermodal transport. Growing environmental consciousness and regulatory pressure are driving investments in green transport solutions, incentivizing the adoption of more eco-friendly ion makers to consider integrating intermodal transport solutions into their portfolio. Additionally, strong development of horizontal transhipment technologies, which demonstrate significantly higher handling efficiency than vertical transhipment technologies, encourages a shift towards intermodal transportation. A constant increase Figure 15: Distribution of transport performance of semi-trailers non-accompanied in intermodal transport by directions in % in Germany 2005-2021 Figure 14: Distribution of transport performance of loading units in intermodal transport (%) in Germany 2005-2023 LOGISTICS  Semi-trailer DOI: 10.24053/ IV-2024-0073 International Transportation (76) Collection ǀ 2024 18 We also highlighted further research that demonstrated a correlation between company size and willingness to shift modes (the larger the company, the more attractive intermodal transport becomes). We placed specific focus on investigating existing policy measures in the field of intermodal semi-trailer transportation in selected countries (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Poland and the Netherlands), noting varying levels of progress in supporting specific semi-trailer technologies among these countries. Overall, we noted a lack of visibility regarding existing transport policy measures, which was also evident from the survey we conducted during the preparation of this article. Summarizing the above, we can conclude the following. Overall, the desired modal shift from road to rail in Europe is taking place at a rather slow pace. The major dynamics in rail transport development in Europe stem from intermodal transport, which experienced a 51% increase between 2011 and 2021 (UIC, 2023). Of the various loading units in intermodal transportation, semi-trailers have seen the most substantial growth, which is particularly evident in Germany, with an average annual growth rate of 12% between 2005 and 2023. We anticipate similar development for other countries what we studied, although no detailed statistics could be obtained here. A promising way to facilitate the cargo shift from road to rail for semi-trailer technologies would involve a symbiosis of vertical and horizontal transhipment methods. In other words, interoperability between existing systems (between horizontal and vertical technologies) would contribute to the development of an EU-wide network, preventing the creation of competing networks with different technologies. Additionally, the larger the company, the more attractive intermodal transport becomes. Since 68% of semi-trailers in commercial road haulage are owned by micro and small-sized enterprises in Germany (although a fragmented market is common throughout Europe), this can be seen as a further challenge for the modal shift from road to rail. Given that 46.1% of total freight transport performance in the EU (excluding sea and air transport) in 2020 was conducted via road over distances of less than 300 km, the market potential is significantly limited by the high number of semi-trailers utilized for short distances. In terms of horizontal transhipment technologies, the lack of interoperability between existing systems can also be considered a limiting factor. In this context, survey respondents envision the future of semi-trailer technologies as a symbiosis of vertical and horizontal transhipment - a promising direction for shifting cargo from road to rail. 8. Conclusion The goal of this paper was to present current developments and to discuss possible future scenarios in intermodal semi-trailer transportation in Europe. The paper began with a description of macro trends influencing intermodal transport, such as economic downturns, energy costs and alternative fuels, driver availability, digitalization, and technological improvements. In the next section, we examined the impact of particular forwarder business models (own fleet vs subcontracted fleet) on the mode choice. We determined that companies employing subcontractors were less willing to shift to intermodal transport. creasing fuel cost is a driver that stimulates modal shift from road to rail. This notion was also generally confirmed by the survey results presented in the field research, with 41% of respondents agreeing and 10% disagreeing. The driver shortage is another aspect that can be considered a conditional supporting factor for shifting to rail and intermodal transport. This shift will allow the use of trucking on shorter distances only, for first and last mile transportation, which will ensure higher vehicle turnover. When examining policies, we can observe that certain countries have already acknowledged the significance of semi-trailers as loading units for facilitating the modal shift from road to rail. Germany, Poland and Spain have already introduced dedicated transport policy measures and other government initiatives that promote the adoption of vertical and horizontal semitrailers. Negative drivers impacting intermodal semi-trailer transportation The gradual switch to carbon-neutral technology, such as electric and hydrogen-powered trucks, will support the trucking industry in sustaining its dominant market share among all transport modes. 45% of our respondents agree with this idea, whereas 17% disagree, as described in the field research. While rail and intermodal transportation currently lead in energy efficiency and ecofriendliness, the adoption of carbon-neutral technology in trucking in the medium and long term will enhance its competitiveness and align with evolving sustainability trends, maintaining its relevance in the transportation sector. Infrastructure constraints and congestion in rail networks and at intermodal terminals cause delays and reduce operational efficiency, impacting the railway segments (i.e., main leg segments) of intermodal transport chains in particular. When looking at existing policies, it becomes obvious that distribution of dedicated policy measures for semi-trailers also varies from country to country. That is, in the case of Italy, the Netherlands and France, no dedicated policy measures supporting semi-trailers in intermodal transport could be identified. In addition, accessibility of information on transport policy measures that promote the adoption of vertical and horizontal semi-trailer transhipment technologies can be considered rather low. The business models of forwarders are another driver that influences the modal shift decision. Companies employing subcontractors are less inclined to shift to intermodal transport than companies using their own fleet of semi-trailers. Figure 16: Ownership of semi-trailers in commercial road haulage in Germany in 2020 categorized by company size (216,738 total) (Source: Bundesamt für Logistik und Mobilität 2023) Semi-trailer  LOGISTICS DOI: 10.24053/ IV-2024-0073 International Transportation (76) Collection ǀ 2024 19 index.php? title=Road_freight_transport_statis tics&oldid=575068#In_2022.2C _Germany.2C _ France.2C _Spain.2C _Poland_and_Italy _accounted_for_almost_two_thirds_of_the_total_tonnage_transported_in_the_EU Eurotransport.de, 2022. 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