23rd International Colloquium Tribology - January 2022 23 E-Mobility, Sustainability, Markets, Raw Materials Dr. Lutz Lindemann FUCHS PETROLUB SE Mannheim, Germany Corresponding author: lutz.lindemann@fuchs.com 1. Introduction The industry faces numerous massive disruptive changes which haven’t been seen before in modern history at the same time. We are facing four disruptions at more or less the same time, which will change the industrial environment significantly. The society and industry have to find solutions regarding political/ geopolitical changes, drastic change in the industrial environment through the change in drive train technologies and mobility behaviour (i.e. e-mobility), sustainability requirements, digitalization and heavy disturbance in the raw material value chains. What does it mean to our industry in Europe, Americas and China? What can be done? A trial. 1.1 The Disruptions 1.1.1 Geopolitical Changes The geopolitical changes will lead to a reduction in globalization and transform the world’s economy back into a regionalized world. We have to deal with technology regions in 3 (4) different world regions with different speeds in technological development and regulatory frames in China, EU and USA. We can see already an independent development of Chinese technology with own specifications and trends. China’s target is clearly to become independent. [1] This implies a significant increase in costs to operate different technology backbones and infrastructures. USA moves in the same direction. Europe sits in between all chairs. EU will be disrupted through their own regulatory and political situation (i.e. raw materials, value chains). 1.1.2 Mobility E-Mobility and change in mobility behaviour will change the lubricant market faster than expected.[2] We will probably see a stable market environment worldwide but a significant drop in the EU market demand by 10-20% in 10-15 years [4]. New products will come up but will not substitute the losses in the “old drive trains”. One can say around 2030 we will see the end of the ICE for passenger cars and probably and trend to FC and/ or ICE with e-fuels and H2 fired engines. The overall market (OEM and Aftermarket) will commoditize. 1.1.3 Sustainability Sustainability requirements are most relevant for the European market and hits the market and the industrial world most. This effects the raw material side directly and indirectly, the energy supply, the mobility behaviour, the economical system per se and the overregulation. The industry has to deal with - Green Deal - 2050 Net Zero (for whom? ) [4] - Chemical Strategy for Sustainability [5] - Circular economy [6] - Change of the refinery landscape - availability from primary raw materials in Europe will become limited This regulatory setup will change the petrochemical industry, especially in view of the requirements regarding circular economy. Base oil availability, petrochemical feed stocks etc. will become a headache in Europe. 1.1.4 Raw Material availability The raw material availability will be distorted by geopolitical risks as experienced in the cases of magnesia, phosphorus, silicon and shortages in the value chain, especially computer parts. The regulatory of the EU will ban raw materials which are essential for the lubricant industry like Li, certain amines, phosphorus containing compounds, boron compounds etc. Due to the reduced demand in fuels in the coming years refineries need to adapt to the different slates in the industry. Whether this is possible is a question mark. Around 35% of refining capacity is on risk. The lubricant industry needs to adapt to recycling requirements coming up in 2023 or later. That means that a substitution of up to 70% of the base oils [6] should be substituted by recyclates. This requires more discussions within the community and the associations how to handle these requirements. Since the technology is not there to provide the qualities the lubricant industry needs. 24 23rd International Colloquium Tribology - January 2022 E-Mobility, Sustainability, Markets, Raw Materials 2. Conclusion The lubricant industry will have to cope with additional requirements in the different regions. US hasn’t found its way and stabilize in the coming years on the today’s way. China will move towards independency. That means deep localisation in China for all markets incl. R&D and raw materials. Europe will see the biggest changes. Therefore, the industry in Europe has to join forces (like the sustainability task force of UEIL), with all stakeholders to avoid that the above shaped scenario hits our industry in an overregulated and uncoordinated way, since the interdependences between all factors described is difficult to predict. We need to come to a regulatory environment which supports the targets but does not destroy the opportunities. References [1] 13th National People’s Congress on March 2021 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) [2] Diverse Announcements Daimler, VW, BMW, Stellantis [3] FUCHS Market Research - April 2021 [4] The European Green Deal, EU-Commission, COM/ 2019/ 640, Brussels, December 2019 [5] Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability, COM/ 2020/ 667, EU-Commission, Brussels, 14.10.2020 [6] A new Circular Economy Action Plan, COM/ 2020/ 98, EU-Commission, Brussels, 11.3.2020