23rd International Colloquium Tribology - January 2022 31 From Emerging Trends to Current Lubrication Challenges: STLE’s View Dr. Ken Hope This presentation will cover the issues that are described in the current STLE Emerging Trends Report and look at what has evolved in the areas of Tribology and Lubrication Engineering. Even though the title says “Lubrication Challenges” it is important to recognize that it includes challenges related to tribology, materials, and sustainability issues. The report is published every three years and is created through a research methodology that engages with STLE members, thought leaders and industry organizations to compile a view on the overall direction of lubrication trends. A forecast is never perfect, but this process pulls together for foreseeable future direction and challenges from the perspectives of over 600 experts in this field, which is roughly a 60: 40 split between US: International. Input came from individuals working in R&D, Sales, and Marketing. It highlighted needs and issues in application sectors of transportation, medical & health, energy, and manufacturing. The specific discipline fields were a) workforce issues, b) research funding, c) materials cost and availability, d) government regulations and e) Safety, Environment, basic human needs. This report has helped to identify and predict the impact of important technologies and areas of concern as they relate to the field, industry and even society and the world economy. It also explores the possible consequences of those trends, both positive and negative. STLE and others have used the report to facilitate a conversation on a global scale, through press releases and media, conferences, and various other media, relative to the needs of industry and society. There are key conclusions for each of the application sectors mentioned above. Specifically in the transportation section, the report identified that the field is undergoing significant advancement in fuel efficient vehicles in response to regulatory pressures. The chief development is the electric and hybrid vehicles as well designs for internal combustion engines (ICE) and autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies. Respondents identified an expectation of a “great deal of advancement” in EV, autonomous driving, EV transmissions, growth in hybrid vehicles, light-weighting materials, and conductive vs. non-conductive fluids. As we can see now from 2022 the views from a few years ago were very accurate. Barriers and market resistance to moving toward EVs from ICEs were also highlighted. This included several issues regarding the infrastructure required for EVs, cost, range anxiety, government subsidies and battery pricing. Autonomous vehicles were highlighting the advantages of fuel efficiency and travel time, vehicle ownership patterns, vehicle networking and a cyber security issue. Participants stressed that while it is advancing quickly, the technology is not yet mature enough to take hold on a wide scale. In the Medical sector the report identified issues in the medical prosthetics field related to the titanium alloys that are being replaced with ceramic or metal polymers due to nano-scale corrosion and the potential of metals entering the bloodstream. In addition, additive manufacturing opportunities would allow tailor made prosthetic devices and implants. The need to post process 3D printed devices to improve surface roughness was also pointed out as well as the need to research the performance of 3D printed parts. The specific discipline fields segment covered Energy, Manufacturing, Workforce issues, and Research funding. Energy-related issues ranked to be of greatest relative importance and increased significance are improved energy storage, batteries to substitute for liquid fuel, lower emission requirements, CO2 and methane capture, sustainability, availability of Lithium and rare earth elements and wind energy. In the Manufacturing field interest levels are increasing for ways to enhance productivity and efficiency, use of environmental acceptable lubricants, lighter and stronger materials, digitalization of industrial processes, more durable greases and lubricants, 3D printing and the impact of recycling. The Workforce field identified the primary issues as the aging workforce in tribology and lubrication engineering and the training for current employees or new hires. This issue continues today and will likely remain a future concern. Furthermore, in the Research funding field for all the areas that have been mentioned it was noted that this funding is determined by government and industry priorities. Participants felt most strongly (85%) that there would be a significant increase in battery technology research, which includes energy storage, and alternative energy sources. STLE is now beginning the planning stages for the next trends report. There continue to be new developments and a tremendous amount of interest in lubrication and tribology related to electric and hybrid vehicles and in many other tribology and lubrication issues that impact the future for people around the globe. We invite conference participants to share their input as STLE plans the 2023 Emerging Trends Report. Note: a free copy of the 2020 report, as well as the two earlier reports, are available on the STLE website (www.stle.org).