24th International Colloquium Tribology - January 2024 25 Minimizing CO 2 Emissions and Maximize ROI: Implementing Known Tribology and Design for Zero Principles for a Carbon Neutral Industry Roland Larsson 1 and Victoria Van Camp 1 1 Division of Machine Elements, Luleå University of Technology 1. Introduction The world is undergoing a significant transformation in the economy and industry to achieve Net Zero CO2 emissions by 2050 [1,2]. Tribology will play a crucial role in this transformation. Machinery, including steel plants, wind turbines, vehicles, and e-motors, will require upgrades and retrofits, with new designs targeting neutral or negative CO2 emissions while minimizing the use of scarce materials. The primary challenge lies not in discovering new technologies (although this is also necessary) but in implementing the technology and knowledge we already possess and doing so quickly. It is often argued that a ‘circular economy’ is the solution to achieving CO2 neutrality, as it involves keeping existing resources in a closed loop within the atmosphere. While the reuse of materials and parts must increase, extending the technical lifespan of machinery well beyond current warranty periods offers a shortcut to improving the financial return on existing assets and justifying new investments. This can be achieved through innovative design, employing ‘Design for Zero’ principles, and through strategic maintenance and upgrades of existing equipment. Here, we explain why ‘circularity’ for industrial machinery is not sufficient and why extending the useful life of equipment to its technical limits is crucial for both minimizing CO2 emissions and improving return on investment (ROI). 2. Circular economy A circular economy is an economic system designed to minimize waste and maximize resource efficiency. Its goal is to depart from the traditional linear “take-make-dispose” model by promoting continuous product use, refurbishment, upgrading and recycling/ reuse. In a circular economy, products are intentionally designed for durability, repairability, and recyclability, while resource use and waste are minimized both through the original design as well as through responsible consumption and production practices. This approach contributes to conserving natural resources, reducing environmental impacts, and establishing a more sustainable and resilient economic system. One approach to implementing a circular economy is to transform the business model in a way that benefits all involved parties by ensuring the long, trouble-free service life of machinery. This can be achieved through methods like leasing contracts or delivering the functionality as a service, often referred to as Product-Service Systems (PSS). 3. Elliptical economy However, Product-Service Systems (PSS) were not initially conceived with the goal of achieving Net Zero emissions but were primarily driven by economic factors, such as cost reduction and increased profitability. Done right, PSS also adds value for customers and gives continuous opportunity for customer feedback and improvements. PSS gained prominence as businesses recognized its potential to align with sustainability objectives and enhance resource efficiency, although the primary motivations may differ among companies. By integrating sustainability considerations into PSS, it becomes evident that profitability is directly linked to extending the machinery’s operational lifespan as much as possible. This extended use-phase significantly contributes to the growth of a well-functioning circular economy, which can be likened to an ellipse rather than a circle [3]. 26 24th International Colloquium Tribology - January 2024 Minimizing CO 2 Emissions and Maximize ROI: Implementing Known Tribology and Design for Zero Principles for a Carbon Neutral Industry 4. The role of tribology The role of tribology in prolonging the use-phase is obvious. Previous research by Holmberg et al. [4,5] and Woydt [6] have demonstrated that the service life of machinery can be significantly enhanced when wear resistance is given top priority during the design process. Traditional linear business models have not actively promoted this concept, but in an elliptical economy business model, there are compelling reasons to leverage existing knowledge in surface enhancement for promoting longevity. Proper maintenance of existing assets has always been important in industry and power plants, mainly driven by high costs for unexpected downtime [7,8]. With connected machinery and machine learning (AI), maintenance practices and the ability to take proactive actions to prolong machine technical life is here to stay. In addition, the sustainability effects of predictive maintenance and data analytics are substantial, with their help, expected life of modern wind turbines are now of the order 30-35 years compared with previous 15-20 years. This substantially reduces lifetime CO2 emissions per produced kWh [9, 10]. Significant changes are required during the design phase in an elliptical economy, with concepts like modularization [11] becoming crucial. Building machinery in modular segments of varying characteristics provides design flexibility and improves maintainability and future (in the design phase yet unknown) upgrades. For instance, surfaces vulnerable to wear can be placed within easily replaceable modules, while parts of the load-bearing structure that remain durable over time can be housed in separate modules. Functionality that may require upgrades to new, as-yet-uninvented technologies can be incorporated into a different module. The climate impact of most mechanical components is largely determined by energy consumption during the use phase, with frictional losses being particularly prominent in components like rolling bearings. Thus, it is imperative to prioritize low-friction solutions when designing machinery for the elliptical economy. Also, maintenance practices such as maintaining shaft alignment and replace worn parts, including seals, before they impact friction losses has substantial impact on energy consumption. 5. Conclusions In the field of tribology, we already possess technologies that can be effectively used to significantly reduce wear rates and frictional losses. The reason these methods have not been consistently applied is twofold: economic viability and a lack of awareness among engineers. A product’s life cycle cost encompasses all phases within a circular (or linear) economy. Typically, these costs are distributed among various stakeholders, with each value chain contributor primarily focusing on their own profitability. When all participants in the cycle - the life cycle value chain -collectively share the total cost, it becomes more economically advantageous to extend the use-phase and employ more costly methods to minimize wear and friction. Moreover, the global shift towards sustainability will inevitably result in higher resource utilization costs and increased emissions fees, further making the adoption of tribological solutions at a higher cost feasible. As a result, the value of tribological solutions will rise, emphasizing the need for even more effective solutions. Finally, the tribologists themselves must prioritize sustainability, using fossil-free and renewable materials in their work. References [1] McKinsey Global Institute summary report (2022). The net-zero transition. What it would cost, what it could bring. https: / / www.mckinsey.com/ capabilities/ sustainability/ our-insights/ the-net-zero-transitionwhat-it-would-cost-what-it-could-bring. [2] Heid, B., Linder, M., Patel, M. (2022). Delivering the climate technologies needed for net zero. McKinsey&- Co, McKinsey Sustainability https: / / www.mckinsey. com/ capabilities/ sustainability/ our-insights/ delivering-the-climate-technologies-needed-for-net-zero [3] S. Jacobson, U. Wiklund, J. Hardell, R. Larsson, “Tribology and the case for an Elliptical economy“, 24th International Conference on Wear of Materials, 2023, 16-20 April, Banff, Alberta, Canada. [4] Holmberg, K., Erdemir, A. (2017). Influence of tribology on global energy consumption, costs and emissions. 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