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Special Edition 1 | May 2018 Looking for the royal road Urban Mobility STRATEGIES Traffic planning in different economies BEST PRACTICE Reverse innovation - rethinking urban transport PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS Bigger, higher, more sustainable SCIENCE & RESEARCH Analysis and forecasting for better mobility solutions International Transportation International Transportation www.international-transportation.com Special Edition 1 l May 2018 Volume 70 1 Register today! Berlin, 27-28 June 2018 Europe‘s largest trade show for automated driving, connected car and mobility solutions www.concarexpo.com ORGANIZER #concarexpo International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 3 Christine Ziegler POINT OF VIEW Urban Mobility - Looking for the royal road G etting to your destination - whether it may be a workplace, a school, a shopping center, or a site of leisure activity - quickly, stress-free and conveniently, is the mobility ideal in modern cities. In reality, however, using urban transportation no longer means being able to travel freely and quickly. On the contrary, as urban populations continue to swell, and more people from the surrounding areas travel daily to the city centers, existing traffic systems and urban spaces are becoming increasingly burdened. The problems of urban mobility have long been on the table. Threshold levels for CO 2 , nitrogen oxide, ozone, and particulate matter in urban areas are being exceeded with increasing frequency. Noise and fumes continue to introduce proven health risks for people living and working on busy roads. In addition, spaces for flowing and stationary traffic compete with built-up and public spaces as access roads and parking lots for new private and public buildings are created on already scarce and expensive building lots. Urban greenery, an important element for improving urban climates, is being pushed back. In addition, more ground surface continues to be paved or sealed off, increasing the risk of flooding caused by heavy rain. It is clear that something must be done. Are driving bans for inner cities the solution? Not really. Traffic situations are far too complex to be solved with simple solutions like this, especially because, sooner or later, numerous exceptions typically erode such bans. This is why fundamental changes in how we think about mobility are necessary. In fact, numerous ideas about and concepts for new types of mobility are currently emerging, for example, autonomous driving, electro-mobility, car sharing, parking space management, “mobility-as-a-service”, as well as intermodal passenger and freight transport. All of these represent possible approaches for changing long-established transportation systems. Changing the systems by using electric energy instead of gasoline and diesel, or driving motor vehicles without owning them can certainly bring improvements. The question remains, however, whether implementing these concepts can address the real challenge, namely, rapid worldwide urbanization. Above all, metropolises in emerging and developing countries are the targets of a huge rural exodus. Even in industrialized nations, big cities have enormous appeal, because they provide more job opportunities, superior living conditions as well as better and more diverse educational, health care, and cultural offerings. If we look at population development over a longer period of time, the exponential growth of the cities becomes very clear. In 1900, only around 10 % of the world’s population lived in cities. Today it is more than 50 %, and the United Nations predicts an increase to 75 % by the year 2050. Based on the UN’s estimate that the world population will soar to about 9.6 billion in 2050, we can expect that - by the middle of the century - the number of city dwellers could increase to 7 billion, almost double of the current figure of 3.7 billion. Already in the medium term, mobility, as we currently know it, will no longer be an option. Perhaps a fundamental change of attitude, moving away from the philosophy of unrestricted urban mobility towards structural traffic prevention could permit a certain amount of free movement. This approach would include, for example, reducing the distances between individual places of activity, such as residences and workplaces or production and shopping. By bringing these places closer together again, many unnecessary journeys could be avoided. Thanks to digital technologies, this is already possible today. Social resolve would be the next step. Christine Ziegler Dipl.-Ing. arch., urbanist, Editor-in-Chief of the science-technology magazine “Transforming Cities” International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 4 BEST PRACTICE 22 Reverse innovation Rethinking urban transport through global learning Alina Ulrich Claudia Kiso Elena Scherer 24 The Jeepney+ NAMA Modernizing public transport in the Philippines Christian Mettke Melissa Cruz Patricia Mariano STRATEGIES  6 City of Seattle: Climate Action Plan 2018 Andreas Kossak 10 Mumbai - Traffic planning in a city of extremes Success factors for the implementation of a regional master plan for the development of an efficient public transport system in emerging economies Lars Schnieder Gopal R. Patil 14 Deutsche Bahn launches training in Latin America Brazilian rail and logistics managers were successfully selected as first group Doreen Christmann Heiko Scholz 18 Legal aspects of autonomous driving Changing face of urban mobility in a connected mobility Jutta Stender-Vorwachs Hans Steege 21 WomenMobilizeWomen Transforming mobility through female empowerment Kristina Kebeck Photo: Pixabay Photo: GIZ/ Lincoln Paiva PAGE 6 PAGE 22 International Transportation POINT OF VIEW 3 Urban Mobility - Looking for the royal road Christine Ziegler KNOWLEDGE AT A GLANCE Read the International Transportation edition for-free - use the convenient download from our website Volume 1/ 2017: Managing Public Transport Volume 1/ 2016: Smarter on the move Volume 2/ 2015: Looking ahead Volume 1/ 2015. Urban transport International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 5 CONTENT May 2018 PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS 27 Solutions in a Nutshell Overview of selected Mobility Solutions 27 The world‘s largest electric truck on work 28 Leitner ropeways system to the world’s largest hotel 28 Vienna, Igoumenitsa and Turda announced for European sustainable mobility awards 29 Blockchain solution could revolutionize ocean shipping 29 Dubai to test self-driving electric transport pods SCIENCE & RESEARCH COLUMNS Photo: Leitner ropeway Photo: Siemens PAGE 28 PAGE 47 47 Projects in a Nutshell Overview of selected Mobility Research Projects 47 Sensors on speaking terms 48 BionicFlyingFox: Ultra-lightweight flying object with intelligent kinematics 48 Scenario 2050: Lithium and Cobalt might not suffice 49 Redox Flow Battery: Storage System for the Energy Transition 50 The easier way of hydrogen production 50 Innovation Center for Artificial Intelligence at Universiteit van Amsterdam (UVA) 51 FORUM Events 51 Review: MoviCi-MOYCOT Joint Conference in Medellín 53 Preview: 16th European Transport Congress (ETC) in Warszawa (PL) 56 Previews: IAA Commercial Vehicles 2018, Transports Publics, InnoTrans 2019, ConCarExpo 57 IMPRINT | EDITORIAL PANELS 58 REMARK | EVENTS KNOWLEDGE AT A GLANCE www.international-transportation.com 30 Streetcar accidents in built-up areas Accident occurrence and measures for improving safety Jean Emmanuel Bakaba Jörg Ortlepp 33 Vehicle Stock Modelling: A new approach Forecasting based strategy development for new mobility solutions Lea Heinrich Felix D. Segel Wolfgang H. Schulz 38 The travel demand impacts of-fare-free regional public transport in Germany Tudor Mocanu Christian Winkler Tobias Kuhnimhof 42 Walking, waiting, interchanging A scenario-based analysis of user requirements in local public transport Kathrin Viergutz International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 6 City of Seattle: Climate Action Plan 2018 Emission, Pollution, Transportation systems, Transportation choice On 4 April 2018 the Mayor of the City of Seattle, Jenny A. Durkan, published a new “Climate Action Plan”. Seattle, Washington State, is the largest City in the Northwest of the United States of America. The population is 705,000 residents in the city and 3,800,000 people in the Metropolitan Area effective 2016 - still growing. That is why Jenny Durkan fights for the citizens’ mobile but fossil fuel-free future. Andreas Kossak T he Climate Action Plan 2018 [1] follows the Action Plan of 2013 [2] - in a series of comparable activities since 2008 [3]. In her introduction the Mayor refers explicitly to the fact, that President Trump removed the U.S. in 2017 from the Paris Climate Agreement: “Here in Seattle, we don’t wait for others to tell us what our future is going to look like - we create it … the City is committed to upholding the pollution reduction targets in the Agreement… we must lead with bold solutions that reduce pollution while strengthening our economy and ensuring that the benefits of a clean energy economy are shared throughout our city. Even as our city continues to grow, we must move beyond incremental change and fundamentally reshape our building and transportation systems… Seattle has never shied away from confronting challenges, which is why- our City will act and do what is right even in the face of such failure from our President …” In this context it should be mentioned, that Seattle is as well one of the worldwide leading cities pursuing the “Vision Zero” approach regarding road transport fatalities and the “Transit Oriented Development” strategy in urban and regional land use planning. The headlines of the main chapters of the actual Climate Action Plan (see figure 1) are: • Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Recent Climate Actions • Near Term climate Action Priorities Below selected passages of these chapters are cited or substantial reported, focused on the road transport sector [1]. Photo: pixabay Figure 1: The Seattle Climate Action Plan published in April 2018 STRATEGIES City planning City planning STRATEGIES International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 7 Greenhouse Gas Emissions I n this chapter it is referred to a local analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions by sector in 2014 (see figure 2) showing that the share of “Road Transport” is clearly dominating (two third): • 50 % “passenger vehicles” (cars, light duty trucks, SUV’s and buses) • 16 % “freight vehicles” (medium and heavy-duty trucks) The remaining one third is attached to “Buildings” (14 % Residential, 17 % Commercial) and Waste (3 %). The total road transportation emissions declined in Seattle since climate change actions have been started in 2008 until 2014 by two percent as a whole and by 12 % per person “due to a combination of more fuel-efficient vehicles and fewer vehicle miles traveled per person as a result of increasing the transit services and improving the walking and bicycling infrastructure”. The respective reduction of the emissions equals with a yearly average rate of only 0.5 % while the population grew by 13 %. To achieve the 2030 goal of reducing passenger transportation emissions by 82 % Seattle would have needed to reduce emissions from passenger vehicles by an average of 7.5 % each year from 2008 onwards. Recent Climate Actions R ecent policies and programs provide a strong foundation on which to build the next generation of climate actions. Much progress has been made in improving the efficiency of energy use in the transportation System. Below are highlights of ongoing climate work. These actions reflect the strong commitment of the community, elected officials, and staff across City government to climate action (Figure 3). Smart growth is the foundation of effective transportation policy, and Seattle‘s nationally recognized urban village strategy, adopted in 1994, provides the essential foundation for Seattle‘s climate-friendly transportation policies. The passage of the 2015 Levy to Move Seattle and the 2016 regional Sound Transit 3 levy, are accelerating and expanding Investments in transit, bicycling, and pedestrian infrastructure and service. And, King County has committed to an all-electric bus fleet by 2040. The overall approach to reducing GHG emissions from transportation is to leverage changes in technology and our increasingly dense city to fundamentally change how people get around. The future of transportation is smart, shared, electric, and ultimately autonomous, and our policies are driving these changes in Seattle in ways that align with our goals to improve connectivity, health, and safety. We are implementing a coordinated strategy of: • Expanding transit, bicycling, and pedestrian infrastructure and services, • Expanding charging infrastructure to foster increased adoption of electric vehicles, • Guiding growth to walkable and transitaccessible neighborhoods, and • Providing price signals that reflect the true cost of driving and incentivize shared and electric transportation choices. Highlights of recent transportation actions are: Transportation Choices Local and regional Investments in transit and bike and pedestrian infrastructure have led to significant reductions in single occupant vehicle (SOV) use in Seattle. The period when Seattle has experienced some of its most rapid growth, 2010-2017, has also seen significant progress in commuter mode shift toward more sustainable modes of transportation. During this seven-year period, downtown Seattle has added 45,000 jobs and become more residential, but only 2,255 new drive-alone trips have been added to downtown streets. The overall SOV mode share of commuter trips declined by 10 points to 25 % and the share of transit trips has steadily increased from 42 % to 48 % . Meanwhile, walking to work increased 1.8 basis points to 7.7 % and the bike share grew to over 3 % . Building - Commercial 17% Freight Transport (Road) 16% Passenger Transport (Road) 50% Building - Residential 14% Waste 3% Figure 2: 2014 Seattle greenhouse gas emissions by sector. Source: [1] Figure 3: City Mayor Jenny A. Durkan (left) fosters public transport systems to decrease GHG emissions from transportation. Source: http: / / durkan.seattle.gov STRATEGIES City planning International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 8 Electric Vehicle Charging in the Right of Way Visible and ready access to charging infrastructure is essential to expanding vehicle electrification. To meet that need, in 2017, a pilot program was initiated to permit the Installation of publicly-available electric vehicle charging stations on non-residential streets in urban villages, urban centers, and commercial streets. To date, over 60 applications have been received from three applicants, including Seattle City Light, who installed the first station in February 2018. The pilot program has strict siting and data sharing guidelines, and applications are reviewed against criteria which will ensure alignment with City policy goals including supporting shared vehicle use and meeting travel needs not wellserved by transit. Pilot program results will be reviewed in mid-2018. Seattle City light Charging Program In response to customers increasing desire for electric vehicles and to understand how best to manage the impact of vehicle charging on the electrical grid, Seattle City Light is designing and implementing two charging infrastructure pilot programs. The programs will expand public fast charging availability and support residential charging at home. Through the right of way charging pilot program described above, City Light is installing 20 public fast charging stations to increase access, while also ensuring that charging is distributed more equitably around the city. The residential program will offer customers access to in-home charging at a manageable monthly cost and is expected to launch in the fall of 2018. Pending legislation will determine if program funding will leverage a lease or incentive model. Electrical Code In 2017, the Seattle Electrical Code was amended to ensure new parking is built to facilitate future electric vehicle charging infrastructure. The code requires adequate electrical capacity to serve one electric vehicle charging station per parking space and that construction documents show the location of equipment and conduit for future installation of electric vehicles charging stations. New Mobility Playbook How we get around is undergoing a sea change, and Seattle is preparing for a transportation future that is shared, electric, and autonomous. As transportation becomes increasingly shared, active, selfdriving, electric, and data-driven, Seattle is planning ahead to ensure the fast-paced changes in mobility help us create a safe, equitable, sustainable city serving our diverse needs. The 2017 New Mobility Playbook sets out a course for how Seattle will ensure that future of transportation in Seattle aligns with our city‘s goals and values and will position Seattle to encourage and guide innovation in transportation technology, reorganizing our streets to grow healthy communities and vibrant public spaces. Shared Mobility Hubs Seattle‘s Shared Mobility Hub program will aggregate transportation connections, travel information, and other mobility amenities into a seamless, understandable, and on-demand travel experience. The Seattle Transportation Department is developing a dense network of shared mobility hubs throughout the city, colocated with major transit facilities and in places where frequent transit Services intersect. A key objective for shared mobility hubs is to advance the use of electric car share and ride hail vehicles by accommodating fast charging at or very near hub locations (see figure 4). Municipal Fleet Seattle was one of the first cities in the country to buy conventional hybrids (early 2000s) and the battery electric Nissan Leaf (2011), install hybrid systems on ambulances, and use a 20 percent bio-diesel blend from sustainable feed-stocks in all heavyduty vehicles. The Green Fleet Action Plan guides the City‘s efforts to meet the goal to reduce municipal fleet emissions by 50 percent by 2025 by increasingly electrifying the fleet, using cleaner fuels when electrification is not feasible, increasing efficiency in how vehicles are used, and setting standards for vehicle procurement. The City‘s fleet includes over 200 electric vehicles and over 300 hybrid vehicles. Between 2013 and 2016, GHG emissions from the municipal fleet decreased by 11.5 percent and total fuel use decreased by five percent. Near Term Climate Action Priorities G uided by the 2013 Climate Action Plan and a review of recent emissions trends and climate actions, we have identified a suite of nearterm priority actions, which will help the City remain on track to meet our climate protection goals. These actions alone will not be sufficient to meet our targets; however, they are the essential next steps which will allow us to make substantial progress and will lay the foundation for continued progress. The actions are transformative, helping us to meet the needs of our rapidly growing Figure 4: Pioneer Square station with light rail train and, at right, a King County Metro bus. Photo: Steve Morgan/ Wikimedia City planning STRATEGIES International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 9 city. When fully implemented, they will significantly reduce emissions and catalyze an even broader suite of actions over the coming years. It is essential that we implement these actions in the near term to meet the challenge and realize the opportunities of a climate-friendly future ... Transportation related fossil fuels are a significant source of air pollution, particularly impacting people who live near roadways and other pollution sources. As Seattle rapidly grows, policies must aim to rapidly replace fossil fuel vehicles with fully electric options and move single occupancy trips to shared transportation. The overall strategy is to increase active and shared transportation (including biking and transit), accelerate car, bus, and truck electrification, and improve the efficiency of the roadway system to reduce idling and unnecessary driving. The actions are: • Improving mobility through pricing Announce that the City will develop and release a strategy to address congestion and transportation emissions through pricing, coupled with investments in expanded transit and electrification in underserved communities. • Electric vehicle readiness ordinance for new construction Pass a new electric vehicle readiness ordinance in 2018, which will ensure new construction or renovation of parking structures is built with electric vehicle infrastructure. • Charging station network map & strategy Release map of optimal distribution of charging infrastructure in 2018. • Ride share and taxi fleet electrification Work with community and business stakeholders to develop recommendations for making all new for-hire-vehicles in Seattle electric. • Green Fleet Action Plan update Create a new Green Fleet Action Plan, by the end of 2018, to accelerate the electrification of the municipal fleet and phase out fossil fuel use in municipal vehicles. • Assess GHG Emissions Impact of City decisions Issue an Executive Order directing City departments to assess the GHG emissions impact of City plans, policies, and major investments. Some of these actions will be implemented immediately, while for others implementation or funding options will be explored over the next year with an aim for implementation soon after. Conclusion T he Seattle Climate Action Plan 2018 is very complex, ambitious and challenging. However, defining and following up such type of an approach is urgently needed in order to reach at least a reasonable portion of the defined goals. US-wide - and internationally as well - it is primarily taken notice of the intention to introduce urban road-pricing and congestionpricing respectively. Road and congestion pricing in metropolitan areas has been intensively discussed in the US since at least 15 years. However, it has not yet implemented anywhere. Such an approach in Seattle is in particular remarkable taking into account, that (opposite to nearly all comparable cities / metropolitan areas in the US) not only the number of cars is still growing, but also the car-ownershiprate. Finally it should be mentioned, that the Seattle Climate Action Plan is concentrated on reducing the emissions being caused within the area of responsibility of the City of Seattle (Figure 5). It does not refer for example to the emissions of the “Seattle Seaport” and the “Seattle-Tacoma International Airport” or the total emissions of producing all system-components of e-mobility. Nevertheless it is highly recommendable to take over and adapt the approach of the Seattle Action Plan in as much major cities as possible all over the world. ■ SOURCES The complete documents together with background informations to the Seattle Climate Action Plans can be found in the web. [1] Climate Action Plan 2018. http: / / durkan.seattle.gov/ wp-content/ uploads/ 2018/ 04/ SeaClimateAction_April2018.pdf [2] Climate Action Plan 2013. http: / / www.seattle.gov/ Documents/ Departments/ Environment/ ClimateChange/ 2013_CAP_20130612. pdf [3] http: / / www.seattle.gov/ environment/ climate-change/ climateplanning/ climate-action-plan Andreas Kossak, Dr.-Ing. Kossak Research and Consulting, Civil Engineering Lab, Hamburg (DE) drkossak@aol.com Figure 5: Downtown Seattle with Space Needle and Mount Rainier. Photo: Daniel Schwen/ Wikimedia STRATEGIES Traffic planning International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 10 Mumbai - Traffic planning in-a city of extremes Success factors for the implementation of a regional master plan for the development of an efficient public transport system in emerging economies Transportation, Public transport, Emerging cities, Infrastructure projects, Financing The organization of transport in mega-cities of in emerging economies determines the economic development, the health of the citizens as well as the climate and the environment. In many mega-cities in emerging economies, traffic collapses on a regular basis. Maintenance, modernization and expansion of public transport is a key to solving these problems. In the metropolitan area of Mumbai, an institutionalization of transport planning and funding by the World Bank over the past two decades was the key to a successful implementation of an ambitious master plan to strengthen public transport. Lars Schnieder, Gopal R. Patil M umbai, until 1996 called Bombay, is the capital of the state of Maharashtra in the western region of the Republic of India. With its 12.5 million inhabitants living in the city limits (excluding suburban areas), Mumbai is the most populated city in India. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) consists of the neighboring cities Thane, Navi Mumbai and others with a total area of 4312 sq. km. With more than 21 million inhabitants, the MMR is one of the most densely populated and densest metropolitan regions in the world [1]. The MMR has two major seaports (Jawaharlal Nehru Port and Mumbai Port), Central and Western Railways Central Offices, an operational airport (Chchatrapati Shivaji International Airport) and an airport currently under construction. Mumbai city center is located on a narrow strip of land that stretches from the marshy coastline to the Arabian Sea. The city of Mumbai is the economic center of India and is known in India for its cosmopolitan culture and Bollywood cinemas. The MMR districts alone contributed 40.26 % of the State Domestic Products for the 2012- 2013 fiscal year [2]. Background of spatial planning and transportation engineering The traffic development of Mumbai is strongly influenced by the following social and economic trends: • Population growth and employment: Many people and families are seeking economic opportunities in Mumbai. They are looking for a better livelihood. Since the 1950s, the population of Mumbai has grown steadily between 3.5 to 4 % annually. The population grew during this period from 2.85 million to now more than 21 million people (see figure 1). The Comprehensive Transportation Study (CTS) of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region projects MMR’s population to cross 34 million by 2031 [3]. Sustaining such a large populaton base requires effective spatial and transportation planning. Moreover, due to the presence of the Mumbai city, the financial capital of India, the MMR provides ample employment opportunities. The CTS study reported an employment of about 7.8-million in 2005 which is projected to be 15.3-million by 2031. • Housing scarcity and cost of housing: Homes and housing are not affordable in the city for most lower-income and middle-class people. Moreover, as per the Census 2011, the average household size in urban MMR is 4.39 which is less than that of India (5.3) and Maharashtra (5.0) and is decreasing with time. Such a trend Figure 1: Population development of the Mumbai metropolitan area All figures and photos: Authors Traffic planning STRATEGIES International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 11 directly translates into for space requirement for housing. The number of households in the MMR is expected to increase from 5,194,614 in 2011 to more than 7.7- million in 2036 [2]. This leads to the following problems: - Suburbanization: Historically, the growth of the city of Mumbai as been characterised by huge immigration from the other regions outside MMR as well as from other states. At the beginning of the 21st century, 80 % of the population in Mumbai were born outside the city. Migration from the areas within Maharashtra accounts for approximately 35 to 40 % of the migrants into MMR. The strong pressure of immigration into the city (rural exodus) results in a migration of the urban population into the surrounding area. More and more people are living increasingly far away and commute daily to the city. Many commuters travel long distances, usually requiring more than four hours a day. - Slum Formation: According to the United Nations Human Settlements Program (UN Habitat), slums are settlements in which more than half of the inhabitants live in unreasonable shelters without basic utilities. Slum dwellers often live without property rights, access to clean water, access to sanitation and lack of adequate housing. The MMR houses the largest slum settlement in the country with almost 50 % of the population living in slums. Almost 29 % (almost 1.4 million out of 5.1 million households) of the households in the MMR region are in slums according to Census 2011. Greater Mumbai has the highest percentage of slum households of this, with almost 80 % of the households in slums. Greater Mumbai has 41.33 % of its _ population living in slums [2]. • Increasing Motorization: The middle income class grew in India, leading to a significant increase in motorized private transport. This has led to long traffic jams on roads. This means in practice low cruising speeds and causes an increasing deterioration of the air quality. The MMR has witnessed a rapid growth in private vehicle ownership over the last two decades. The CTS study done in 2005 reports that the private vehicles per 1000 population in 1996 was 50 (31 motorized two-wheelers, 19 cars) which increased to 97 (64 motorized twowheelers, 33 cars) vehicles per 1000 population in 2005; the projection for 2031 is a staggering 266 vehicles per 1000 population [3]. In addition, MMR produces about 110,000 tonnes of freight traffic and attracts about 104,000 tonnes on an average per day by road. Greater Mumbai alone produces about 43 % and attracts about 37 % of this freight traffic. Public transport plays an important role in Mumbai, with more than 70 % of all rides currently performed by public transport. Mumbai’s suburban trains and city bus systems are very efficient and heavily used. The world-famous suburban trains in combination with the existing bus system helped the city to a certain extent to establish itself as the commercial capital of the country. However, for decades there have been no significant improvements in public transport systems. The public transport system was increasingly overburdened which negatively affected the image of the city. Public transport systems are still clearly inadequate. They are in no way suitable to meet the current high traffic demand. Even today, the vehicles are overcrowded and due to the crowded passengers, the journey by public transport is unpleasant. Capacity reserves are no longer available for a further increase in demand and there is an acute need for action to expand the public transport system. Institutionalization of transport planning A first approach to solve the ever increasing transport problems was the establishment of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority, often abbreviated MMRDA in 1975. MMRDA is an executive body of the state of Maharashtra, which is responsible for the development of the infrastructure of the MMR. Since its foundation, MMRDA has been responsible for long-term regional and transport planning in the MMR. The MMRDA promotes new growth centers, implements and finances strategic infrastructure development projects. With a regional plan, the MMRDA has created a strategic framework for the sustainable growth of the metropolitan region of Mumbai. The broad responsibilities of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority include • the preparation of regional development plans • providing financial support for major regional projects • providing assistance to local authorities and their infrastructure projects • coordination of the execution of infrastructure projects in the MMR • the suspension of any activity that could negatively impact the development of the MMR. In particular, the MMRDA initiates, promotes and supervises the most important projects for spatial development. The declared goal is the improvement of the unsustainable traffic situation. In this context, the MMRDA is responsible for the planning and coordination of public transport in the MMR. Financing of transport infrastructure projects In 2002, the Government of the State of Maharashtra, Indian Railways, and MMRDA, with financial support from the World Bank, approved the launch of a Mumbai Urban Transport Project (MUTP). The overall goal was to create a long-term solution for urban transport. The Mumbai Urban Transport Project (MUTP), which is still in progress, is aimed at developing an efficient transport system and improving passenger and goods traffic. The development of urban infrastructure is seen as an elementary component of poverty reduction by the World Bank [4]. In their view, the previous inadequate transport system is preventing the economic growth of the metropolis of Mumbai and restricting the jobs of the poor, as they would have to accept excessive travel times. The project consists of three components • the expansion of the rail transport • the expansion of the road networ, • a resettlement and rehabilitation program for the approximately 120,000 project-affected citizens whose business and residential buildings are located on the land required for infrastructure development. The MUTP has been and is being successfully implemented with the support of World Bank funding. The World Bank uses funding instruments such as long-term loans at near-market conditions, interestfree, long-term loans for investment projects, or the assumption of guarantees. Since 2002, three major project phases have been implemented during which the various transport systems have been modernized or supplemented. As a result, a powerful transportation system is growing to equip Mumbai for the future. Masterplan for the development of a public transport system The existing transport infrastructure is not in a position to meet the current high and future rising transport demand. The existing system of suburban trains is under extreme pressure and the role of the existing bus system is limited to feeder services for the suburban trains. An expansion of STRATEGIES Traffic planning International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 12 the capacity of existing road and rail networks is hardly possible. Many quarters of the city and suburbs do not have access to efficient rail transport systems. With the aim of improving the traffic situation in Mumbai, a master plan for the development of the public transport system has been developed by the MMRDA since 2003. The aim is to open areas of the city previously not having access to public transport, so that in the future every citizen within a radius of 500 m to 1 km will have access to public transport stations. Planning includes the networking of different modes of transport. In the following, the individual building blocks of the Mumbai transport system are outlined. Auto-rickshaws and taxis Car rickshaws and taxis play an important role in public transport in Mumbai. There are around 250,000 automobile rickshaws in the MMR. However, auto-rickshaws are not allowed in the old Bombay (city center) and you have to change at dedicated transfer points in a taxi. Today, around 58,000 taxis are in use in the city limits of Mumbai and around 100,000 taxis throughout Greater Mumbai. CTS reports that autorickshaws account for 7.8 % of all the daily trips made in the MMR (excluding walk trips) whereas taxi account for 1.7 % of all trips (excluding walk trips). Public bus system Since 15 July 1926 there is a motorized bus service in Mumbai. The network has grown continuously since then. The largest urban bus company is Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport Undertaking (BEST). BEST is a state organization founded in 1873. With more than 3,400 buses, the company transports 4.5 million passengers per day on 340 routes (see figure 2). The bus network is very complex and extends to the remotest parts of the city and partly outside the city limits. It serves as a feeder to the existing, or under construction efficient rail transport systems. Suburban electric trains Since 1928 there is a network of suburban electric trains in Mumbai. The network of suburban trains consists of trains running in the inner city area on exclusive tracks, which in the outer areas merge with other main railway lines. With a network of more than 465 km, the network of suburban electric trains has more than 2,300 daily train connections with more than 7.5 million commuters per day. With an annual passenger count of 2.64 billion passengers, the Mumbai sub-urban electric train is one of Figure 2: Ashok Leyland Bus of BEST in Mumbai Figure 3: Suburban electric trains Figure 4: Mumbai Metro Line 1 (exterior design of vehicles) Figure 5: Mumbai Metro (interior design of vehicles) Traffic planning STRATEGIES International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 13 the busiest commuter rail systems in the world. At the same time it is also the one with the biggest overcrowding in the world - even outside of rush hours the trains are overcrowded. The average density on the suburban rail system is about 12 persons/ sq.m. as against internationally accepted standard of 6 to 8 persons/ sq.m. Since the two-sided doors of the car are not closed while driving (see figure 3), there are almost daily fatal accidents. Trains run daily from 04: 00 in the morning until 01: 00 in the morning. Some trains also run until 02: 30 the next morning. The suburban train system is operated by two different divisions of Indian Railways: Western Railways (WR) and Central Railways (CR). WR operates the Western Line. CR operates the Central Line, Harbor Line, Trans-Harbor Line and Vasai Road Diva-Panvel Line. Mumbai Metro The construction of the Mumbai Metro will reduce congestion in the city and complement the network of overcrowded suburban electric trains. The construction of the Mumbai Metro takes place in three phases over a period of 15 years. Completion of the entire network is scheduled for 2021. Upon completion, the core system will comprise a total of eight high-performance lines spanning a total length of 200 km. The routes are 20 % underground, the rest elevated. A small proportion is built at ground level. A total of 169 stations are planned. The current status of the construction measures is as follows: • Lines in passenger service: Line 1 operated by Metro One Operation Private Limited (MOOPL). This is an operatormodel in public-private partnership (PPP). This broke new ground in India in the operation of public rail transport systems. The operator is a joint venture between the French partners RATP Développement and Transdev (70% share) and the Indian company Reliance Infrastructure (30% share). MOOPL will operate Metro Line 1 for a period of 35 years (see figure 4 and figure 5). • Lines under construction: Lines 2 and 7, which are currently under construction, are to be operated by the MMRDA. The currently under construction line 3 is to be operated by the Mumbai Metro Railway Corporation Limited. • Lines in call for tenders: Line 4, currently in the tendering process, is also expected to be operated by MMRDA. Construction work on line 4 scheduled for the end of 2017. Also for the lines 5 and 6, the construction work to begin in 2017. • Lines under planning: Line 8 is currently being prepared in the planning phase. Mumbai Monorail The Mumbai Monorail was also built as part of the city’s major public transport expansion (see figure 6). For the traffic problems in Mumbai the monorail represents an interesting solution. The elevated track above the road barely reduces the already scarce traffic area. Monorail systems are a cost-effective alternative to metro systems, particularly on mediumtraffic lines. The Mumbai Monorail commenced its passenger operation with a partial Phase 1 opening in 2014. After completion of Phase 1 in mid-2017, the Mumbai Monorail will become the fifth largest monorail system in the world. Summary and outlook The significant traffic problems in Mumbai were recognized early on and have been addressed by a strategic master plan since the mid-1990s. The basis for this was an organizational institutionalization of local traffic planning as well as a generous provision of investment funds by the World Bank and the Republic of India. The addition of existing transport systems, or the extension of new transport systems on a large scale, should contribute to improving the quality of life in the Mumbai metropolitan area and promoting economic development. ■ LITERATURE: [1] UN - United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2012: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision. New York [2] Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority: Mumbai Metropolitan Regional Plan 2016-2036, 2016. Mumbai [3] Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority: Comprehensive Transportation Study for Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Volume I, 2008. Mumbai [4] Grundner, Ciara; Randeria, Shalini: Gestaltung „staatlicher“ Policy im Schatten der Weltbank: Urbane Infrastruktur-Entwicklung, Zwangsumsiedlung und der listige Staat in Indien. In: Globalisierung Süd herausgegeben von Axel Paul, Alejandro Pelfini, Boike Rehbein (Springer, Berlin) 2013. 137 - 155 Lars Schnieder, Dr.-Ing. Head of Assessment Service Center, ESE Engineering und Software- Entwicklung GmbH, Braunschweig (DE) lars.schnieder@ese.de Gopal R. Patil, Ph.D., Dr. Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Bombay (IN) gpatil@iitb.ac.in Figure 6: Mumbai Monorail International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 14 Deutsche Bahn launches training in Latin America Brazilian rail and logistics managers were successfully selected as first group DB, Training, Education, Rail, Logistics, Managers For 35 Brazilian managers of rail logistics and rail passenger transport, Deutsche Bahn’s DB Rail Academy implemented the first international rail training program. DB experts will perform a 360 view of rail in 7-modules and 18 months duration around topics such as railway operations, railway infrastructure, transport systems, rolling stock and others such as management, HR and economics. Doreen Christmann, Heiko Scholz T he National Transport Confederation (CNT) is a high representative unit of the transport and logistics sector in Brazil and is responsible fostering its developments. The CNT also manages various organizations, including the Social Transport Service (SEST) and the National Education Service provider for Transport (SENAT). In particular, SEST and SENAT are responsible for the implementation of extensive social, training and education activities. They are non-profit civil institutions created on 14 September 1993 for the development of the country’s transport sector and responsible for training and qualification of experts in the market. With the aim of raising the level of education in transport international standards and strengthening and enhancing the competitiveness of Brazilian companies, ITL (Instituto de Transporte e Logística), in collaboration with SEST SENAT, offers courses with international certification for professionals in the sector. SEST SENAT commissions different companies from different transport areas for the development and implementation of specific training courses. Deutsche Bahn’s international engineering and consulting company, DB Engineering & Consulting, its Brazilian branch DB International Brasil and its DB Rail Academy have been commis- Photo: Fotolia/ Syda Productions STRATEGIES Education Education STRATEGIES International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 15 sioned to conduct the first certified international training program for rail in Brazil, which is supported by associations of the sector (Figure-1). The initiative is part of the Advanced Transportation Training Program, which generates knowledge, improves human capital and promotes innovation in all modes of transport. The strategic goal is to increase the level of training of participants in international standards, to gain access to benchmarks edge and deal with technological complexity in the operation. Additionally it intends to increase management, with a view to training and education of professionals Brazilian railway and subway companies, which contribute to greater specialization of the workforce in order to create added value and increase the competitiveness and productivity of the sector. DB Engineering & Consulting in cooperation with its DB Rail Academy were selected to transmit there knowledge and experience in rail and logistics. The DB Rail Academy Programs are provided by Deutsche Bahn (DB), one of the largest multimodal freight and passenger transport companies in the world and the largest rail network in Europe, based in Berlin, Germany. DB started some years ago to share its 180 years of Rail experiences to support emerging or rapidly growing Rail Industries. Under the roof of DB Rail Academy, that offers a very comprehensive, but modular program. A wide range of education and training programs and individual education profiles as well as the modular development structure ensure that DB Rail Academy participants become experts in their respective fields - from newcomers to top managers. The programs target different levels: 1.- Management/ Leaders; 2. Experts, Specialist, Engineers; 3. Operational staff; 4. Vocational Trainees/ Dual Students. The training products are adapted to individual needs and local regulations. With its experiences, DB Engineering & Consulting, its DB Rail Academy as well as DB’s internal training provider, DB Training, were chosen as a long-term training-partner for the sector. International training program The initiative aims at training professionals in new techniques to ensure greater productivity, efficiency and cost reduction for rail freight and passenger transport. The training is offered for managers of companies, preferably with ANTF (National Association of Rail Transporters) and ANPTrilhos (National Association of Rail Passenger Carriers). Target of the international training program is to provide an overall understanding of the principles of rail systems and the connection of each component for efficient and safe rail operations. Furthermore, the specific training modules will lead to a deeper understanding of focus topics in the field of Rail Operations, Rail Systems, Rolling Stock and Maintenance, Infrastructure and Maintenance, Business Skills, HR & Ergonomic as well as Management and Economics. Furthermore, the course meets the ITL standards for international training program: the course has a minimum workload of 420 hours, in classroom sessions and remotely. There are seven face-to-face meetings on five consecutive days from Monday to Friday from 8: 00 h to 18: 00 h with a total duration of 18 months. This comprehensive training program was developed for 35 managers in different positions varied from coordinator and analysts to directors of rail logistics and rail passenger companies. Figure 1: Start of the Program with all stakeholders in Brasilia. From left to right: Peter Mirow (Director DB International Brasil), Ana Paula Gadotti Franco (Legal Manager National Association of Freight Rail Operators / ANTF), Gabriela Rizza (Chief Advisor Sest Senat), Ticiano Bragatto (Technical Manager ANTF), Bruno Batista Martins (Director CNT / Brazilian National Confederation of Transports), Conrado Grava (Planning Director ANPTrilhos), Marcella Cunha (Government and International Relations Manager ANTF), Olivia Pinheiro (Director of Institutional Relations, CNT), Dirk Menne (Head of Operational Control DB Netz AG & Trainer), Roberta Marchesi (Superintendent ANPTrilhos), Heiko Scholz (Director DB Global Rail Academies DB Engineering & Consulting GmbH), Doreen Christmann (Business Consultant HR and Training DB Engineering & Consulting GmbH), Vinícius Ladeira (Deputy Director Sest Senat), Clever Soares de A. Junior (Deputy Director ITL), Franz Reisinger (Trainer DB Training, Learning & Consulting), Gustavo Gardini (Director Business Development DB International Brasil) Source: Marcos Borges STRATEGIES Education International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 16 The first group was selected by ITL and consists of participants who have passed the official registration process successfully. The selection process consisted of three phases: registration and submission of documents, interview in Portuguese and English that is conducted by the technical team of ITL and the analysis of the candidate’s documentation, curriculum and performance during the interview. One crucial part for the process was the correct answering of a technical and rail related questionnaire that was developed by DB. Additional mandatory requirements were the following: • Employment in railway or subway companies, preferably in conjunction with ANPTrilhos and ANTF; • English skills; • At least three years’ professional experience in the rail and subway sector; • Expectations and motivation for the course; • Communication skills, interpersonal relationships and teamwork The first group took part at the first 18-months part-time program, which started at February 19th in Brasília, capital of Brazil, with the first module “Rail Systems” (Figure 2). Concept & methodology DB Rail Academy’s trainings emphasize the mixture of theory and practice for the best knowledge transfer. Therefore, all training modules contain different didactical methods. The structure of the course combines theory and practice from a highly qualified faculty of DB with a solid academic background as well as with practical experience and a great management experience. Each module is conducted every two months in five days a week (Monday to Friday). In those, the participants receive a detailed insight in the comprehensive theory of a specific topic. As for this, the participants work on case studies, in groups as well as solving self-assessments, interactions and discussions. After each module, participants must pass a test and solve a multiple-choice online test. The online test includes three to five questions according to the learning content after each training day. This gives the participant and the trainers a feedback at the end of a training day to identify gaps within the learning group and allows the trainer to address those gaps in the next training day. In addition, they have to complete a thesis and a technical report within two weeks. This ensures the intensification of theory and the learned. The course has also 20 ≈ hours of study time in the e-learning tool (including self-assessment), forum for discussions on relevant topics and possible technical visits for each module. After the 7 th module, the participants produce a technical report within two weeks. This project will focus on the practical application of one or more modules in a railway and subway project. In conclusion, the program comprises 21 disciplines, spread over seven classroom modules, for a total of 420 hours. Upon successful completion of the program, participants will receive an international DB certification as “Rail Logistics Manager” at the last session of the course. Criteria such as frequency, attendance in classroom instruction, use in e-learning evaluations and dissertations are taken into account in the assessment. The participant who achieves a minimum frequency of 75 % (seventy-five percent) and a minimum of seventy (70) points in the formal learning assessment process in each discipline is eligible for the certificate. Each module will be conducted by various specialized, highly experienced trainers and experts from DB as well as in English language. If necessary, two specialists are assigned to carry out a module within one Figure 2: Training Session of “Rail Systems” Source: Marcos Borges Rail Operations Overview of components and subsystems of the train control function as well as the connections between people, rolling stock, infrastructure components and signaling systems. Special focus is on different systems such as communication systems, signaling and ERTMS/ ETCS. Rail Systems Development of the concept of systems engineering and integration and associated philosophies as well as the interface between systems engineering components, interfaces and systems integration. Besides this, focus is on human factors in systems, human capacity, human capacity, human beings and machine roles in complex systems and system integration. Rolling Stock & Maintenance Focus is on terminology for railway transport traction systems and their components as well as basics in electric and electronic engineering: traction basic physics, electric traction and sources as well as undercarriage principles and science. Infrastructure & Maintenance Technical details of rail infrastructure and the most common defects of rail infrastructure. Focus is on the principles of maintenance and different strategies as well as on handling with common defects of rail infrastructure. Business Skills, HR & Ergonomic The concept of process based & risk orientated management and the context to railway company. Besides this, insights in development of measures for risk control, safety as well as on the typology and management of large rail projects. Management & Leadership Innovative leadership concepts, guideline for business strategies in the railway sector. Taking effective decisions on flexible business strategies in a rail context as well as facing opportunities and challenges in a VUCA world. Economics Overview accounting, of structure of the profit and loss account and understanding financial statements as well as the balance sheet, importance of investment and working capital. Table 1: Rail related topics Education STRATEGIES International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 17 week due to the variety of subjects. All experts and trainers have proven their experience by long term employment at DB as well as relevant professional experience in various departments and positions. Training modules & content The specific training modules (Figure 3) will lead to a deeper understanding of focus topics in the field of rail related topics (see table-1). First findings and outlook The current development in Brazil’s rail sector and the political strategy is comparable to developments we can see worldwide. Brazil realized the significance and the necessity of investments to solve the transport challenges of tomorrow. Different from many other countries, Brazil does not only focus on huge construction projects. Moreover, Brazil realizes the significance of timely and necessary capacity building for bringing plans into action. With an eye on the local and global rail workforce markets, Brazil pushes the development of competencies as one of the most important responsibilities which need to be considered at an early stage. Since DB Engineering & Consulting’s foundation in 1966, the company has been active in the field of education and training at operational and managerial levels. Hence, DB Engineering & Consulting has a wide range of functional and methodical expertise gained through many years of international experience, together with specific knowledge of the transport market throughout the world. Whether vocational education and training, coaching or management and process consulting, whether technical expertise or business know-how, the experts from the DB Group develop solutions that also take account of specific national legislation and regulations, as well as special cultural aspects. With start of the program, DB Engineering & Consulting supports Brazil with the provision of expertise in various fields and leads to the point, that other Latin American countries are interested in this program. Besides Brazil, the implemented training program is planned to be repeated in other- Latin American countries such as Argentina. ■ Doreen Christmann Business Consultant HR and Training, DB Engineering & Consulting GmbH, Berlin (DE) doreen.christmann@ deutschebahn.com Heiko Scholz Director Global Rail Academies, DB Engineering & Consulting GmbH, Berlin (DE) heiko.scholz@deutschebahn.de Figure 3: Overview of training modules Source: Doreen Christmann EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCE 2018 The 46 th European Transport Conference Annual Conference of the Association for European Transport 10-12 October 2018 Dublin Castle, Ireland @EuTransportConf www.aetransport.org AET European Transport Conference (ETC) 3-Day Booking Discounts: Deadline 29 th June Delegates are now invited to book their place at the European Transport Conference to benefit from an Early Booking Discount. The Early Booking Discount applies to delegates booking 3-day attendance only, with payment received by 29 th June 2018: AET or ECTRI Members Standard Fee* Early Booking Fee* Individual Member £800 €960 £720 €850 Organisation Member £760 €920 £690 €820 Non-Member £940 €1130 £850 €995 Single days may be booked from 1st July 2018. In addition, a 50% discount on booking fees is applicable to attendees from new EU Member States (joined since 2004) and for young professionals under the age of 26 or with less than 5 years’ professional experience. For those involved in transport planning, research and practice, the European Transport Conference is the event to find in-depth presentations on policy issues, best practice and research findings across a broad spectrum of transport modes. To secure your discounted place, please complete an Early Booking Form online at: www.aetransport.org or email sabrina.winter@aetransport.org *All fees shown are subject to 20% VAT. Standard Fees may be subject to alteration due to fluctuating exchange rates. J000167 Early bookings Internationales Verkehrswesen advert 88x126 v1.indd 1 10/ 04/ 2018 15: 57 STRATEGIES Autonomous cars International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 18 Legal aspects of autonomous driving Changing face of urban mobility in a connected mobility Urban mobility, Autonomous driving, Dilemma situation, Data privacy, Smart city, Connected cars The essay gives an overview about legal aspects of autonomous driving. Moreover, it deals with urban mobility and issues coming along with electromobility, digitalization and connectivity. In addition to constitutional aspects like the dilemma situation, the essay deals with a possible prohibition of diesel and petrol vehicles as well as non-autonomous cars. Besides, an introduction into public law is given. This contains police law as well as the road traffic law and legislation issues. Another aspect concerns data privacy issues which result from the digitalization of the mobility of the future. Furthermore, the connectivity of the cars themselves and with the city is a theme. Finally, legal aspects of civil liability are dealt with. Jutta Stender-Vorwachs, Hans Steege W ide landscapes are contrary to urban regions and its mobility. Thus, the architectural environment allows and forces the next generation of mobility to react on the surrounding area. In addition, it grants new models of mobility (Figure 1). Nowadays, the infrastructure in cities is one of the most important aspects of architectural planning and the economical development of a city. Due to the digitalization and the connectivity of cars a new era of mobility as well as a new era of urban mobility evoke. Autonomous driving, electromobility and the so called shared economy will be a disruptive technology with an immense impact. Truth be told, this will not only affect the mobility but in fact also the whole infrastructure of a city in addition to the architectural environment. The city and the urban traffic itself will be connected, digitalized and smart. Together with this progress, there are a lot of legal issues which should be dealt with right from the beginning. Speaking of autonomous driving, connected cars, digitalization of the infrastructure and the cities one should keep several aspects in mind which come along with this topic. Due to the connectivity, autonomous driving shall make the traffic easier and safer. But the safety of the traffic can only be enabled when the technical system of the car is implemented with regard to data security. Autonomous driving affects several fields of law, for example issues of penal law, civil law and civil liability law, product and producer liability, insurance law as well as data privacy issues. Furthermore, it affects antitrustand competition law, labor law and constitutional issues as well as International and European law. Finally, civil procedure law is also affected. 1 This essay shall give a legal introduction to the changing face of mobility due to autonomous driving. Implications of fundamental rights To begin with, it is of most importance to analyze the implications of the fundamental rights. In the German jurisdiction the legal norm of the German constitutional law stands above all. The importance results from one aspect: the fundamental rights form an objective system of values. 2 New technologies like autonomous driving have to be in unison with the constitutional law. On the European level, the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union is simply put the pendant to the national constitutional law. The constitution and the fundamental rights are technology-open. 3 As a result, the research in the field of autonomous driving is in accordance with the German constitutional law. 4 In the context of autonomous driving the dilemma situation occurs most frequently in the news. 5 The starting point of the question is, if under specific circumstances, the car Figure 1: Toyota e-Palette project, CES 2018 Source: Ampnet Autonomous cars STRATEGIES International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 19 shall weigh life against life. This question has now been discussed from an ethical point of view which is obligatory for a social acceptance. 6 The legal conclusion, however, is crystal clear. It is forbidden and in fact unconstitutional to weigh life against life. 7 This results from a violation of the human dignity. The usage of a random generator as an imaginable solution would treat the human dignity and the human being itself as an object. 8 This is likewise a violation of the constitution. While talking about urban mobility one might think of traffic jam, air pollution and rare parking spaces. With regard to this one might forward the question if the government is able to prohibit cars others than those using electromobility entering the city. In addition, if autonomous driving leads to fewer road accidents and less road fatalities one might think of prohibiting non-autonomous cars from entering the city. 9 These two questions shall not be solved here, because relating thereto, huge legal debates and problems occur. 10 Urban mobility shall grant mobility for the habitants of a city. Physically handicapped people need mobility to participate in life. Autonomous driving provides new possibilities for physically handicapped people and may change urban mobility. An interesting aspect is, if they have a right on mobility and autonomous driving. Such a right could result from Art. 3 of the German constitutional law. 11 New challenges for the public law Normative rules regulate one’s everyday life. These include the German road traffic law as well as several federal police laws which are important for traffic law. Autonomous driving puts the well-known acts on the test bench. Do we need new legal standards or may the present legal standards compete with the technical progress? Law shall provide a functional legal framework. If the law is not suitable because of fast technical development, this bears the danger that law is formed by the normative force of the factual. In order to prevent such developments, law must offer the suitable legal framework for the future development of mobility. In the following we would like to show two examples putting law on the test bench. Speaking of federal police law and the German road traffic law (StVG), police controls come into one’s mind. Autonomous cars may drive without any passengers. Imagine that these are used by organized criminals as mobile bombs in order to carry out attacks. Police controls are with no doubt necessary. But who may stop an autonomous vehicle? 12 Is it even legally possible to stop an autonomous vehicle? Nowadays, police officers can stop cars by using signs. The request to stop is addressed to the driver. In the German road traffic regulations (StVO) § 36 Abs. 5 S. 4 orders the driver to stop due to a police sign. 13 In times of autonomous driving, new methods to control cars are necessary. It would be possible to cooperate with the car manufacturer who may override the current driving progress in order to stop the car as requested by the police. 14 Therefore a connectivity is needed. Several laws have to be adjusted, so that they fit as a legal framework for autonomous driving. The new § 1a StVG shall regulate the usage of high and full automated driving. In fact, the norm does not apply for autonomous driving. To bring forward this new technology the legislator has to renew this norm. Besides, the new norm already brings forward a lot of liability questions instead of solving them. The legislation act is also something one should keep in mind when talking about urban mobility in the future. Data privacy and data security Modern cars nowadays already produce and collect a lot of personal data. They produce data concerning the status and the technical condition of the car. Besides, they produce data of the driver and the passengers. Autonomous driving is only able to function, when cars are connected 15 and when they use systems to see so that they can react to their surroundings. 16 Using optical systems to film the environment means that constantly a huge amount of personal, private or even sensitive data is being produced by the car. In fact, these data are necessary, so that the car is able to drive. But one shall not forget and underestimate that these data contain personal information of the affected persons. Data privacy has to protect both, data of passengers which are in the cars as well as uninvolved third parties which belong to the outer traffic. The GDPR (European General Data Protection Regulation) coming into action on May 25, 2018 harmonizes the data privacy law throughout the whole European Union and sets up a minimum standard level of data privacy and data protection. 17 But not every data pertains to privacy law. One has to differentiate which data has been collected. In fact, it matters if the affected data are personal data or not. If the car does not store the data, privacy law is not applicable. With regard to a necessary black box it would be sufficient to store the data for 15 minutes and, if no accident happens, to erase the data. 18 Then, there is no privacy problem and the optical sensor system of the car may run without any legal problems. The amount of data is the biggest problem for the people involved. The bigger the amount of data, the more likely it is that the involved person loses the overview of his or her data. Being in accordance with privacy law is not a big burden. Privacy by design may solve many problems, as for example erasing the black box data automatically. Autonomous driving without passengers on board is technically possible. It is also possible with just an 8-year-old child on board. Due to the collected data of the child the GDPR requires a valid consent. Art. 8 (1) 1 GDPR requires that if the child is under the age of 16, the parents or the person in charge shall give their consent. Data privacy will only be effective if there is a well-thought-out data security. Embedded software is the key to grant protection from cyber-attacks. The decoupling of safety-relevant interfaces has the highest priority. 19 In case of a cyber-attack, errors by the manufacturer can quickly lead to a recourse claim. Urban mobility in a larger view contains more data privacy aspects than autonomous driving does. A smart city is connected with both, infrastructure and traffic itself. Various data are produced by using connected traffic lights. The vision field of the traffic lights notices other cars and pedestrians, so that other cars know when another car or a pedestrian cross or want to cross the junction. The flow of traffic increases in using these technologies. Smart traffic lights and a AUF EINEN BLICK Der Beitrag behandelt juristische Fragestellungen im Kontext autonomer Fahrzeuge und versucht, einen breit gefächerten Überblick und einen einfach verständlichen Einstieg in dieses Thema zu geben. Die urbane Mobilität wird im Kontext mit autonomem Fahren und Elektromobilität sowie Vernetzung und Digitalisierung betrachtet. Neben grundrechtlichen Aspekten wie der Dilemmasituation und dem Verbot von Diesel- oder Benzinkraftfahrzeugen wird auch ein mögliches Verbot nicht autonomer Fahrzeuge behandelt. Zudem werden weitere öffentlich-rechtliche Nuancen vom Polizeirecht bis hin zu gesetzgeberischen Änderungen im Straßenverkehrsgesetz angesprochen. Einen weiteren Aspekt bilden datenschutzrechtliche Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung in der Mobilität von Morgen. Zudem wird die Vernetzung der Fahrzeuge untereinander und mit der Verkehrsinfrastruktur sowie der Stadt angerissen. Ebenso werden zivilrechtliche Aspekte der Haftung behandelt. STRATEGIES Autonomous cars International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 20 smart city are one pillar for a well-functioning urban mobility when using autonomous cars. Traffic lights predict the traffic flow, the city itself may predict where a traffic jam could occur. Using traffic lights which are connected to other traffic lights, to cars and to the city increases the traffic information of an autonomous car. But, one has always to remind that various data, which are in first case produced to come in benefit for the quality of urban mobility contain several sensitive information about each person involved. Personal data may only be used or stored if there is the necessary consent of the person involved, if it is permitted by law or if the usage is necessary to fulfill contractual agreed duties, § 4 Federal Data Protection Act (BDSG). Several advantages lying in the connectivity provide surplus values for the mobility of the future. But on the other hand, they always bear the burden of misusage or underestimating the overwhelming impact of collecting and storing a mass amount of personal data. Civil liability and insurance law Autonomous driving raises questions of liability. Who shall be liable in case of an accident? What happens, if there is no passenger on board or if the passengers cannot control the steering movements due to the fact that there is no steering wheel (see Figure 2)? Is the German strict liability even up to date in this scenario? If an accident occurs due to a product defect for which the car manufacturer is responsible, is it then accurate to make the car holder liable due to the strict liability? This brings up fundamental questions of our liability law system. Another possibility is to make the car manufacturer liable. This is imaginable in two ways: The driver liability applies to the one who controls the longitudinal and lateral acceleration. An autonomous car is controlled by the software which means that the car manufacturer would be the driver of the car. Otherwise, it would be possible to construct a liability for every car manufacturer with an obligation to have a third-party motor insurance. For non-autonomous cars the liability is clear. If the driver uses assistance systems, high or full automated cars, he is responsible and has to take back control of the car if needed, § 1 b Abs. 1, 2 StVG. That means, that he is liable in case of an accident. Legal conclusions All in all, one might say that digitalization, connectivity as well as autonomous driving probably, in combination with electromobility, will most likely shape the future of urban mobility. Together with these new technologies new models of mobility like the shared economy evolve. The high potential to be a disruptive technology cannot be denied. On the way to autonomous driving several legal aspects have to be considered. Both, development of technology as well as the legal research have to work hand in hand to grant the highest quality results. Autonomous driving does not fail due to inadequate laws. However, with the focus on adjusting laws, there is still a lot to do for the legislator. ■ 1 An overview of mostly all legal aspects can be found in: Autonomes Fahren, Rechtsfolgen, Rechtsprobleme, technische Grundlagen, Oppermann/ Stender-Vorwachs (Hrsg.), 2017. 2 BVerfGE 39, 1, 41; Münch/ Kunig, Grundgesetz, Kommentar, 6. Aufl., 2012, Vorb. Art. 1 - 19, Rn. 23. 3 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, „Grundrechtliche Implikationen autonomen Fahrens“ in: Autonomes Fahren, Rechtsfolgen, Rechtsprobleme, technische Grundlagen, Oppermann/ Stender-Vorwachs (Hrsg.), 2017, S. 253, 257. 4 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, (Fn.3), S. 253, 257. 5 For example, in the New York Times “Whose Life Should Your Car Save? ” from Nov. 3, 2016. https: / / www.nytimes. com/ 2016/ 11/ 06/ opinion/ sunday/ whose-life-should-yourcar-save.html (last access to the page on 25.03.2018). 6 The Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure implemented an Ethics Commission which dealt with Automated and Connected Driving. https: / / www.bmvi.de/ SharedDocs/ EN/ publications/ report-ethics-commission. pdf? __blob=publicationFile (Homepage last accessed on 1.04.2018). 7 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, (Fn. 3), S. 253, 263 et seqq. 8 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, (Fn. 3), S. 253, 266. 9 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, (Fn. 3), S. 253, 268 f. with a comparison to the prohibition of diesel cars from entering the city in Fn. 82 on page 269. 10 An overview can be found in Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, (Fn. 3), S. 266 et seqq. 11 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, (Fn. 3), S. 253, 260 et seqq. 12 First brought up by Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, “Facetten Automatisierten Fahrens - von Datenschutz über Fahrerflucht bis zur Verkehrskontrolle“, in: Bonner Rechtsjournal (BRJ) 2017, S. 114, 118. 13 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, „Das Aus für Autonomes Fahren? Rechtliche und technische Möglichkeiten von Verkehrskontrollen bei autonomen Fahrzeugen“, in: Neue Zeitschrift für Verkehrsrecht (NZV) 2017, 553. 14 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, (Fn. 13), S. 553, 554 f. 15 It can be differentiated between Car to Car, Car to Infrastructure and Car to Anything communication, cf. Auer- Reinsdorff/ Conrad, Handbuch IT- und Datenschutzrecht, § 34, Rn. 582. 16 Wagner, „Technik autonomer Fahrzeuge - Eine Einführung“, in: Autonomes Fahren, Rechtsfolgen, Rechtsprobleme, technische Grundlagen, Oppermann/ Stender- Vorwachs (Hrsg.), 2017, S. 1, 19 et seqq. 17 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, „Kleine Sim-Karte - große Konsequenz: Automobilhersteller als TK-Anbieter? Eine tk- und datenschutzrechtliche Analyse im Kontext autonomer Fahrzeuge, in: MultiMedia und Recht (MMR) 2018, 212, 215. 18 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, (Fn.3), S. 253, 286. 19 Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, (Fn.3), S. 253, 278 with more information in Fn. 133; Stender-Vorwachs/ Steege, (Fn. 13), S. 553, 554. Jutta Stender-Vorwachs, Prof. Dr. iur. habil., LL.M. (Virginia, USA) Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität, Hanover (DE) jutta.stender-vorwachs@jura. uni-hannover.de Hans Steege Stud. iur., Faculty of Law, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität, Hanover (DE) hans.steege@jura.uni-hannover.de Figure 2: Autonomous bus shuttle in Bad Birnbach, Bavaria Photo: Deutsche Bahn AG/ Cosalux Stanko Beronja STRATEGIES International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 21 WomenMobilizeWomen Transforming mobility through female empowerment The debate about sexual harassment of women (#metoo) has caused an international outcry. It also led to increasing public attention for the restrictions of mobility that women face in their daily movements. Therefore, it has given momentum to a discussion long overdue in transport policy, planning and operation. Kristina Kebeck M obility is the precondition to have access to goods and services such as health, work, education, leisure. However, transport, and more specifically urban transport, is often seen as gender neutral, that a road, rail or bus system benefits all equally. But, this is not the case! Women face more restrictions to mobility, and their travel patterns differ from those of men due to their differences in needs and tasks, and access to resources. Although women are more dependent on public transport and walking, transport often fails to respond to women’s needs. And it is especially women, who are more affected by safety and security issues. They encounter violence and harassment when they are using public space, particularly in public transport. This reduces the freedom of movement of women and girls, their ability to attend school or work and to participate fully in public life. Thus, there are specific differences between men and women in how they use transport and in how they perceive the key attributes and functionalities of any transport system. Raise awareness: Women mobilize Women To address this long overdue issue of empowering women in transport, GIZ has kicked off a debate on the role and potential of women in sustainable urban mobility, with organizing an international conference “WomenMobilizeWomen” in Leipzig, backto-back with the ITF 2018. “WomenMobilizeWomen” is co-hosted by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative (TUMI) and brings together high-level transport experts and practitioners from all over the world. The conference will foster knowledge exchange and in-depth discussions on female empowerment focusing on the implementation of sustainable mobility solutions on the ground - by women, for women. About us and our work As GIZ we act on behalf of the German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) to raise awareness and a better understanding of gender and women empowerment in the context of international cooperation. Our aim is to provide knowledge to our project partners and interested decision makers on how to integrate the empowerment of women into planning and project implementation, taking into consideration the specific needs of women in transport which will have a broad impact and a lot of benefits not only for women. GIZ has published a “Sourcebook on Gender and Urban Transport” for policymakers in developing and emerging countries on the topic of gender. This sourcebook serves as user-manual for, but not exclusively limited to policy-makers. It identifies areas in which gender and urban transport intersect and points out the concept of gender as a transversal topic that is relevant in all phases of planning, design and implementation. GIZ´s module handbook provides examples and policy advice on transport systems around the world, empowering mobility of women. ■ HELPFUL LINKS Sustainable Urban Transport Project: www.sutp.org WomenMobilizeWomen: www.womenmobilize.org Transformative Urban Mobility: www.transformative-mobility.org Kristina Kebeck Transport Policy Advisor, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Bonn (DE) kristina.kebeck@giz.de Photo: Carlos Pardo, 2010 International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 22 BEST PRACTICE Urban space Reverse innovation Rethinking urban transport through global learning Urban mobility, Global learning, Sustainable mobility, Innovation Congestion, pollution, lack of space and noise - cities worldwide struggle with negative externalities of motorised transport. To cope with these challenges, cities are searching for innovations that help develop more sustainable mobility solutions. Since developing and emerging countries are often characterised by dynamic economic environments, severe urbanisation pressures and relatively high motorisation growth rates, they are at times quicker and bolder when it comes to developing and testing mobility innovations. This is where the potential of “reverse innovation” comes into play. Alina Ulrich, Claudia Kiso, Elena Scherer T he role of innovation is pivotal in economic development. They often make a difference in addressing urgent (environmental) challenges. The concept of reverse innovation first came up in product development 1 . In the context of urban mobility reverse innovation refers to any new concept, technology or idea that is adopted first in the developing world, is shaped by the local context and has the potential to inspire enhanced sustainable urban mobility in developed economies 2 . Innovations from cities in developing countries - a potential to be tapped The concept is challenging the traditional innovation model, in which developing countries are seen as beneficiaries rather than innovators. In the last decade, many of those countries have experienced a profound transformation with high urbanisation, population and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates, often accompanied by an increasing demand for individual motorised transport. Mobility innovations from developing and emerging countries often differ from solutions in industrialised economies. Nonetheless, they can be inspiring showcases, since they approach urban mobility from a different perspective or - like the City of Shenzhen - operate at a larger scale. Shenzhen replaced more than 16,000 diesel buses and now operates an entirely electrical bus fleet. However, innovations are the result of their local context. Transferring concepts or relevant aspects to other cities requires reflection and adaption. Reverse innovations in urban mobility - discovering the vast range of inspiration Unlike common belief, (reverse) innovation not only encompasses Research and Development (R&D) and high-tech solutions. In the context of urban mobility, five types of innovation can be identified: • Technological innovation (e.g. battery swapping for electric scooters) • Regulatory innovation (e.g. regulating new mobility devices for pedestrians) • Service innovation (e.g. electronic payment) • Social innovation (e.g. crowd sourcing of safety data for planners) • Business model innovation (e.g. dockless bike sharing systems) One of the most prominent examples of reverse innovation is certainly the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system invented in Curitiba, Brazil, in the 1970’s - long before the term was first used. Nowadays, BRT systems operate in cities all over the world. Ten recent innovation examples from Asia, Latin America and Africa and their potential for German cities have been analysed and put together in a joint publication of the German Environment Agency (UBA) and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) 3 (Figure 1). Some of the innovations have even made it to Europe: The publication includes examples for successful innovations like the electric Gogoro Smartscooter from Taiwan, used in the fleet of a scooter sharing company in the streets of Berlin, to the ride sharing platform Raye7 from Egypt, currently exploring the potential to start operating in Finland. S-o Paulo, with its “permanent parklet programme” is an example for a regulatory innovation many cities in industrialised countries could benefit from. Inspiring idea from Brazil - Redesigning parking lots Redesigning parking spaces into public areas - so called “parklets” - is not a new concept. However, the city of S-o Paulo has added an innovative twist to the original idea. The city came up with a comprehensive programme that enables local stakeholders, ranging from ordinary citizens to small business owners, to envision and realize public parklets according to their wishes. Clear guidelines provide the necessary regulatory framework 4 . This participatory approach combined with the clear guidelines raises the public acceptance of the permanent parklets and turns them into a successful measure boosting more liveable cities. People appreciate the new recreational spaces and collectively organise their maintenance (Figure 2). Figure 1: Joint brochure by GIZ and UBA identifies 10 innovations from the Global South. Source: UBA/ GIZ (2017) International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 23 Urban space BEST PRACTICE Permanent parklets are a response to urban challenges in reducing the space of motorized transport and reshaping it into a place for people instead of cars. Shifting road space from cars to other modes is incentivising walking and cycling and discouraging car use. The implementation of parklets in the German city of Stuttgart engendered a controversial discussion on the distribution of urban space. 5 Taking S-o Paulo’s comprehensive approach as an example might be an answer to a more effective implementation of parklets in countries like Germany. Relevance of reverse innovation for Germany and beyond On their way to a liveable urban environment with short distances, green spaces, healthy air quality and a sustainable urban mobility, even cities in industrialised countries are currently in a stage of development and are urgently searching for solutions. 6 In the eyes of the world, “Made in Germany” still is seen as a proof of quality, but it is not necessarily associated with innovation 7 . Especially when it comes to digital appliances, which are fundamentally transforming the mobility sector, Germany can learn from developing and emerging countries 8 . In many of them cashless payment (e.g. MPESA), the use of mobile phone applications (e.g. Go-Jek) and smart ticketing are already part of people’s everyday life. Today, cities are global actors, well networked and in many ways more flexible than countries. As the example of S-o Paulo shows, innovative urban mobility ideas can originate in cities everywhere on the globe. Differentiating between developing and developed countries is often no longer appropriate with regard to their cities. For this reason, they can benefit from more exchange with partners from Nairobi, Shenzhen, Bogota or other innovative cities. In order to be successful, this dialogue has to include actors from the private sector (e.g. start-ups) and civil society. “Learning globally” means analysing good practice examples from around the globe systematically and discussing them openly. But sustainable mobility is more than that. In Germany, existing regulation sometimes hinders innovation. To facilitate thinking “outside the box” cities could create more room for experiments beyond conventional pilot projects - accepting the potential for failure. Understanding that a different context results in useful innovations may also inspire European countries to adapt their regulatory framework. One thing is certain: In order to create a more sustainable city, waiting for technical solutions such as autonomous driving or electric vehicles will not be enough. Instead, cities should create an environment that enables the constant development of small (or big) innovative solutions that can incrementally improve their inhabitants’ quality of life. ■ 1 Vijay Govindarajan, Chris Trimble, Jeffrey R. Immelt (2009): „How GE is Disrupting Itself,”, 10/ 2009 2 UBA/ GIZ (2017): Reverse Innovation - Rethinking Urban Transport through Global Learning, German Environment Agency. Dessau-Roßlau, 09/ 2017. Retrieved from https: / / www. u m we l t b u n d e s a m t . d e / s i t e s / d e f a u l t/ f i l e s / medien/ 376/ publikationen/ reverse_innovation_bf_0.pdf 3 Ibid. 4 City of S-o Paulo (2014): Decreto Nº 55.045, de 16 de Abril de 2014. Retrieved from http: / / gestaourbana.prefeitura. sp.gov.br/ wp-content/ uploads/ 2014/ 04/ Decreto-55.045. pdf 5 Universität Stuttgart (2016): Parklets Stuttgart. Raum der Begegnung polarisiert, http: / / www.uni-stuttgart.de/ usus/ 2016/ 07/ parklets-stuttgart-raum-der-begegnungpolarisiert/ 6 German Environment Agency (2017): Tomorrow’s Cities - Environmentally friendly mobility, low noise, green spaces, compact housing and mixed-use districts, German Environment Agency. Dessau-Roßlau, 05/ 2017. Retrieved from https: / / www.umweltbundesamt.de/ sites/ default/ files/ medien/ 421/ publikationen/ 20170814_stadt_von_ morgen_version_2_englisch_web.pdf 7 GIZ (2015): Germany in the Eyes of the World - Second Survey. Retrieved from https: / / www.giz.de/ en/ downloads/ giz2015-en-germany-in-the-eyes-of-the-world-2015.pdf 8 Ibid. Claudia Kiso Scientific Advisor, German Environment Agency (UBA), Dessau-Roßlau (DE) claudia.kiso@uba.de Elena Scherer Advisor, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Bonn (DE) elena.scherer@giz.de Alina Ulrich Research Fellow, University of Wuppertal (DE) a.ulrich@uni-wuppertal.de Figure 2: Parklets transform parking into recreational areas in S-o Paulo, Brazil. Photo: Lincoln Paiva International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 24 BEST PRACTICE Philippines The Jeepney+ NAMA Modernizing public transport in the Philippines Congestion, Emission, Greenhouse gas, Low-carbon pathway, Road-based public transport The Public Utility Vehicle Modernization (PUVM) Program of the Philippines aims to transform the road sector of public transport through the introduction of safer and climate-friendly vehicles, improved regulation, and industry consolidation. The program aims to improve the urban quality of life, reduce economic losses due to time lost in travel, reduce health costs and premature deaths, reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve the economic situation of the operators and industry by improving service quality levels. Christian Mettke, Melissa Cruz, Patricia Mariano T he existing public transport system in the Philippines relies primarily on jeepneys, cultural icons of ingenuity initially repurposed from the army Jeeps left after World War II. Jeepneys are backyard-fabricated vehicles with chassis often as old as 50 to 70 years and engines more than 15 years old, capable of accommodating 12 to 32 passengers (Figure 1). They are to Filipinos what double-deckers are to Londoners: a dominant cultural icon and a national symbol of pride. The context With a rapidly growing economy, the Philippines has been seeing the sales of hundreds of thousands of cars sold annually - one of the fastest in the ASEAN - without any significant investment in infrastructure for sustainable modes of urban transport or even road space. Between the year 2007 to 2012, car ownership grew by 16 % and motorcycle ownership increased by 69 %. The 2014 ASEAN Automotive Federation sales report noted the Philippines as the fastest growing automobile and motorcycle market in the region ahead of Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia (Figure 2). This trend towards car-dominated cities, combined with an outdated and low-quality public transport system, poses a severe risk to the country’s overall social and economic development. As of 2017, congestion in the capital region of Metro Manila alone has been estimated to cost the country USD 67 million per day due to lost opportunities, additional fuel consumption, and health costs 1 . This is an increase of 46 % from the congestion cost estimated in 2014. Annually, this adds up to about USD 24 billion - or over 10% of the Philippine GDP 2 . Accounting for approx. 30 % of energyrelated GHG emissions, transport is also noted as the largest source of air pollution in the Philippines. In 2015, road transport GHG emissions were estimated at 28.4 million tonnes CO 2 e, of which the jeepney sector alone accounts for 15.5 %. Emissions from road transport under a business as usual scenario are projected to increase to 87 million tonnes CO 2 e by 2030, resulting in a rapid enlargement of the carbon footprint and air pollution in urban areas. Congestion has gotten so bad in Metro Manila that there were talks in Congress of granting ‘emergency powers’ to the Executive Department, to enable them to more quickly address the ‘crisis in the transport sector’. Legislation has yet to be passed to formalize this, but many parallel efforts are being pursued to enable better mobility, including the introduction of new rail lines and the promotion of non-motorized transport modes. The public transportation system Public transport could be a significant part of a more climate-friendly transport system but it is lacking all preconditions to reach its potential. The highly fragmented public transport system is dependent on outdated, often small-scale road-based vehicles and is dominated by jeepneys (approx. 200,000 in the Philippines, wherein approx. 55.000 in Metro Manila alone). Even with increasing car ownership, the jeepney sector still maintains its high ridership levels. Jeepneys count Figure 1: A jeepney waiting for more passengers along the streets of Manila. Photos: Patricia Mariano Figure 2: Passenger vehicle fleet and GDP/ capita growth incl. projections International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 25 Philippines BEST PRACTICE for approx. 40 % of all motorized person trips in the Philippines, or about 40 million person-trips per day, which make them one of the biggest contributors of GHG emissions in the transport sector. The high modal share of jeepneys is due to its relative affordability (the base fare for a jeepneys ride is USD 0.15), and as well to the lack of any better alternatives. Other public transport vehicles include buses (approx. 5000 in Metro Manila, 20.000 in the Philippines), taxis, Asian Utility Vehicles (express point-to-point service), and motorized or pedal-powered tricycles. The current market situation of the public transport market is characterized by a large number of on-street competing operators for jeepneys, buses, Asian Utility Vehicles (AUVs) or tricycles. In Metro Manila alone, over 43,000 jeepney franchises and over 830 bus franchises have been issued for more than 900 routes, making the public transport market practically impossible to regulate for the government. This has led to an inefficient supply of low quality public transport service and dangerous and congested traffic situations. The lack of a comprehensive policy framework, inefficient institutions and planning procedures, lack of enforcement and of financial incentives for the operators has led to: • A fragmented jeepney industry with inefficient vehicle fleet and operational setup. • Undeveloped bus market consisting of aged, second-hand coach buses that do not meet the demand, in particular urban mass-transit needs. • Negative externalities: high CO 2 emissions, severe air pollution, road safety issues, time loss, etc. The lack of attractive public transport stimulates the use of cars and motorcycles, exacerbating the already extreme congestion experienced in the larger cities in the Philippines, which in turn leads to economic and environmental costs. If the quality of the public transport system is not be improved significantly, its recent share in the modal split will further decline, as GDP and car ownership grow. This would result in an increase of GHG emissions by the transport sector. The goal: Decarbonising roadbased public transport in the Philippines On the path towards decarbonizing public transport, there are two recognized starting points: Some rather advanced emerging economies have already undertaken serious efforts to formalize (parts of ) their public transport and can start moving on towards electrification. The majority of developing countries however, including the Philippines, currently still rely on semi-informal and fragmented minibus-based low-quality public transport systems. This by far bigger group of countries is responsible for the majority of GHG emissions from public transport. The “Jeepney+ NAMA” 3 of the Philippine government will create an important showcase for the transformation of public transport for this group of countries. Mostly developing countries need to undertake huge efforts first to formalize and professionalize their public transport industry moving gradually to larger capacity buses and consolidate operations before the industry is (financially) capable to introduce hybrid or electric buses at scale (see figure-3). Therefore, the main goal of the NAMA is to establish a formalized, high quality public transport system inducing ongoing fleet renewal, a transition towards higher capacity vehicles, higher operational efficiency and better service levels. This will reduce the emission footprint of public transport, mitigate rapid motorization and limit the shift of trips to the carbon intensive use of cars. It furthermore lays the groundwork for the future electrification of the public transport fleet, which is needed to achieve full decarbonisation. The approach: Enabling transformational change through comprehensive policy mix and support mechanisms Strong political will is essential to transform an entire public transport market. This is also true for the market in the Philippines, which in Metro Manila alone is paying the living of approx. 450,000 people. Without the foreseen comprehensive market reorganization, public transport will never transform into a modern, reliable and environmentally friendly system that will sustain existing ridership levels. Considering the local context, and with the goal of contributing to the Philippines’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), one of the top priorities of the government is the “Public Utility Vehicle (PUV) Modernization Program” (see figure 4), internationally labeled as the “Jeepney+ NAMA”. To achieve the objectives, mentioned above, the Jeepney+ NAMA introduces the following key structural changes: 1. Improvement of policy and regulatory framework for public transport 2. Re-organisation of institutional set-up 3. Enhancing the conditions to realise state-of-the-art public transport planning 4. Establishing a national (financial) support mechanism for low carbon public transport vehicles 5. Establishing a national Monitoring- Reporting-Verification system The GIZ TRANSfer project technically supported the Department of Transportation of the Philippines during the development of the Jeepney+ NAMA. The GIZ TRANSfer project is funded by the International Climate Initiative of the German Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). Its objective is to support developing countries and emerging economies to develop ambitious climate actions in the transport sector. To enable the government to efficiently manage and regulate the industry and to Figure 3: Where Jeepney+ NAMA fits in the low-carbon pathway for road-based public transport International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 26 BEST PRACTICE Philippines allow operational efficiency of the fleet, consolidation is a key strategic intervention. Therefore, consolidation will take place on three levels: 1. Consolidation of number of operators (encourage consolidation through regulation) 2. Consolidation of number of franchises (“one route-one franchise principle”) 3. Consolidation of public transport fleet (move towards higher-capacity vehicles, see figure 5) Part of the regulatory reform is to implement route-based franchising. The move from franchising of individual vehicles to a route-based franchising model (potentially ‘one-route-one-franchise’), with the anticipated corporatisation or collectivisation of operations to serve such a system, presents significant opportunities with regard to monitoring and to regulation. Under fragmented operations, service levels on a particular route are the result of a multitude of individual decisions made by operators. Under the ‘one-route-one-franchise’ system, the single operating entity on the route has the potential to manage service levels on the corridor (i.e., headway/ vehicle frequency) in a way that individual operators could not. The process of franchise consolidation and tendering of new franchises presents the opportunity to include new conditions within the terms of the franchise, which extend beyond the previous minimalistic requirements. It will be critical to implement all components of the PUV modernisation program by acknowledging the distinct knowledge and accomplishments of the existing operators within an insufficient regulatory framework in the past. Therefore, the government engages with the sector through a series of consultations and workshops. It furthermore establishes a national social support program to operators, which includes trainings and other capacity development measures. Outlook Once implemented, the Jeepney+ NAMA will have replaced 200.000 old jeepneys with new higher-capacity vehicles and will reduce the annual vehicle kilometres travelled (by jeepneys) by 28 %. This will lead to 39 % of GHG emission reduction generated by road-based public transport and a 6 % reduction on overall road transport GHG emissions annually. In Metro Manila alone the NSP will result in total on-road diesel savings between 528 to 754 million litres (within a 10 year timeframe) equivalent to 310 to 443 million USD. It is estimated that the NAMA will reduce air pollutant emissions such as particulate matter (up to 90 %), or NOx (up to 63 %) significantly. The monetized health value of the reduced air pollutants in Metro Manila is estimated to be between 83 to 119 million USD per year. As mentioned already, the majority of countries worldwide suffers from poorly managed, fragmented, mini-bus based public transport, in very similar conditions as in the Philippines. The PUV Modernisation Program of the Philippine government can create an important showcase for formalising (semi-)informal public transport systems towards a low-carbon pathway. ■ 1 Japan International Cooperation Agency, 2018. 2 Annual congestion cost estimated at USD 23.6 billion, while 2017 GDP (at constant prices) is USD 167.8 billion. 3 NAMA: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action Melissa Cruz Project manager and senior advisor, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Manila (PH) melissa.cruz@giz.de Patricia Mariano Transport policy advisor, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Manila (PH) patricia.mariano@giz.de Christian Mettke, Dr. Transport policy advisor, project manager and component lead, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Berlin (DE) christian.mettke@giz.de Figure 4: Launching of the “PUV Modernization Program” in July 2017, through the signing of the Omnibus Franchising Guidelines on 19 June 2017, with participation of Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea, DOTr Secretary Arthur Tugade, Department of Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon Lopez, Department of Budget and Management Secretary Benjamin Diokno, Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chairman Danilo Lim, and Department of Interior and Local Governement Undersecretary Catalino Cuy. Figure 5: New minibuses advertised at a PUV modernization expo in Metro Manila, April 2018. International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 27 Business line PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS Projects in a nutshell Overview of selected mobility solutions The world’s largest electric truck on work T he world’s largest electric vehicle with an empty weight of 58 tons and a payload of 65 tons started its work in the quarry of Vigier Ciment. The electric dump truck designed over the past 18 months is a Swiss interdisciplinary cooperation and has set three world records. The eDumper is the largest and most powerful battery-powered electric wheeled vehicle in the world. For this purpose, the largest battery ever produced for an electric vehicle was installed, which weighs 4.5 tons and is as heavy as two complete passenger cars. The eDumper will transport more than 300,000 tonnes of rock per year over the next 10 years. According to preliminary calculations, the vehicle will save up to 1,300 tonnes of CO 2 and 500,000 litres of diesel over the next 10 years. The eDumper will transport lime and marl rocks from a higher mining area to a lower processing plant. During the fully loaded descent, the batteries are charged by recuperation of braking energy. According to preliminary calculations, the electricity generated in this way is largely sufficient for the unloaded return journey uphill to the mining area. Thus, the vehicle would be be a zero-energy vehicle. The exact energy balance of the eDumper will be shown by investigations in everyday operation over the next few months. The environmentally friendly eDumper was completely rebuilt on the basis of a diesel-powered Komatsu HD 605-7 dump truck. In order to optimally dimension the electric drive, researchers at the Bern University of Applied Sciences at the Institute for Energy and Mobility Research IEM equipped the conventional model with a variety of sensors so that numerous measurement data could be obtained. Among other things, the necessary torque at the cardan shaft and the power output of the engine are measured together with the respective driving condition and the GPS data of the vehicle. In order to guarantee the longevity and robustness of the technology, the Interstate University of Applied Sciences Buchs investigated the vibrations of the diesel dump truck in real use and the heat emission of the battery cells of the future eDumper. This research team also designed the thermal management for the battery pack, calculated the necessary strength of the battery holders and the design of the welding seams. It is also responsible for monitoring the eDumper battery in real use. The 600- kWh power storage, consisting of 4- blocks, is located in the engine compartment and instead of the diesel tank. The eDumper is now designed in such a way that a failing cell cannot affect neighbouring cells. www.empa.ch The eDumper in the quarry of Vigier Ciment Photo: Andreas Sutter International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 28 PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS Business line Malaysia: Leitner ropeways system lifts to the world’s largest-hotel T he “20th Century Fox World Theme Park” at the Malaysian “Resorts World Genting” is the top attraction at a height of 1,800 meters above sea level, and the new “Awana Skyway” gondola lift takes the visitors up. “Resorts World Genting” is situated 58-kilometers and just a one hour drive from Kuala Lumpur. For overnight stays, the impressive leisure park boasts the “First World Hotel”, the largest hotel in the world, with over 7,000 beds, as well as five other hotels. Every day, up to 6,000 guests check in and out at the hotel complex with more than 10,000 beds. The Resort welcomes roughly 20 million visitors annually. With an annual average temperature of less than 21°C, surrounded by 130 millionyear-old rain forest, the 46,000 m 2 leisure complex offers a wide range of attractions like a shopping mall, restaurants, theme parks, cinemas, theaters and a concert hall. Highlights include Malaysia’s largest indoor snow park and the only casino in the country, attracting almost four million visitors annually. The new ropeway is Leitner ropeways’ third project in Genting and replaces an old aerial tramway. Cooperation started in the 1990s with a small ropeway system. In 1996, Leitner built the longest and fastest ropeway in South East Asia. Since then, over 100 million passengers have used this installation. “Awana Skyway” has 99 cabins - ten of which with a glass floor. Each cabin is also furnished with a double roof for thermal insulation and a special ventilation system. With four stations in total, the journey takes around ten minutes. www.leitner-ropeways.com Awana Skyway Source: Leitner Ropeways Vienna, Igoumenitsa and Turda announced for European sustainable mobility awards T he winners of the EuropeanMobility- Week Award 2017 and 6th Award for Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning (SUMP) are the cities Vienna (Austira), Igoumenitsa (Greece) and Turda (Romania). They were selected by an independent panel of mobility and transport experts and will each receive a promotional video highlighting their achievements. Vienna was named the winner of the EuropeanMobilityWeek Award 2017 for larger municipalities, with Igoumenitsa revealed as the inaugural winner of the newly added category for smaller municipalities (below 50,000 inhabitants). The 6th- Award for Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning (SUMP) was presented to Turda. The awards were presented to the cities by Commissioner for Transport Violeta Bulc and Director General for Environment, Daniel Calleja end of March 2018 at a ceremony in Brussels (Belgium). Commissioner for Transport Violeta Bulc said: “My congratulations to each of the award winners. Through their actions, Vienna, Igoumenitsa and Turda are creating a more sustainable Europe. They also help their residents to move around in a cleaner, healthier and more enjoyable way. It is my hope that these cities will inspire others to embrace the core message of EuropeanMobilityWeek - sustainable mobility is the right choice for everyone.” Commissioner for the Environment, Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Karmenu Vella said: “Mobility Week gets bigger every year. More proof, year after year, that green is everyone’s favourite colour. Green means clean, it means convenient, and it means a city where people find it easy to go about their business. And best of all, it’s better for your health.” The EuropeanMobilityWeek campaign runs from 16 to 22 September each year, and provides towns and cities with an opportunity to test out sustainable transport alternatives. Encouraging individuals to choose sustainable transport modes such as walking and cycling can lower carbon emissions, improve the quality of the air, and make urban areas more pleasant places to live and work. The EuropeanMobilityWeek Award showcases local authorities that demonstrate significant efforts in promoting sustainable urban mobility, while the SUMP Award recognises outstanding sustainable urban mobility planning. This edition of the SUMP award focused on shared mobility in the planning process. www.mobilityweek.eu Tramway (called “Bim”) passing Vienna parliament Source: Gugerell/ Wikimedia International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 29 Business line PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS Blockchain solution could revolutionize ocean shipping A consortium comprising AB InBev, Accenture, APL, Kuehne + Nagel and a European customs organization has successfully tested a blockchain solution that can eliminate the need for printed shipping documents and save the freight and logistics industry hundreds of millions of dollars annually. With this solution are documents no longer exchanged physically or digitally but instead, the relevant data is shared and distributed using blockchain technology under single ownership principles determined by the type of information. Through a detailed review of the current documentation processes, the group examined a re-allocation of information ownership, accountability and risk enabled by the trust and security blockchain technology offers. An international shipment of goods for companies in areas such as the automotive, retail or consumer goods industries typically requires more than 20 different documents, many of which are often paperbased, to enable the goods to move from exporter to importer. Across these documents, up to 70 % of the data can be replicated. The document heavy approach limits data quality and real-time visibility to all parties involved in the trade and this can also delay the financial settlement on goods. The solution can speed up the entire flow of transport documents, reduce the requirement for data entry by up to 80 %, simplify data amendments across the shipping process, streamline the checks required for cargo and reduce the burden and risk of penalties for customs compliance levied on customers. Blockchain is a new type of distributed database system that maintains and records data in a way that allows multiple stakeholders to confidently and securely share access to the same information. The technology is poised to revolutionize operations across a multitude of sectors, such as financial services, government, healthcare, entertainment and freight and logistics. The tests confirmed that blockchain can reduce operating costs and increase supply chain visibility. “Our trials have proven the viability of a shipping process in which many documents can be replaced by secure and distributed data sharing with clear and defined ownership,” said Adriana Diener- Veinott, who leads Accenture’s Freight & Logistics industry practice. “This gives companies a significant opportunity to save time and money while improving their service to customers.” www.accenture.com Source: pixabay.de Dubai to test self-driving electric transport pods C areem, the leading app based booking service in the MENA region, will bring battery-powered, self-driving electric pods to region by a strategic partnership with Next Future Transportation, Inc. The partnership came on the heels of His Highness Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s announcement of the launch of the Dubai Autonomous Transportation Strategy, a new initiative aimed at making 25 % of all transportation trips in Dubai be smart and driverless by 2030. The initiative requires innovation, experimentation and the participation of companies working to transform the current transportation industry across the UAE. The electric and driverless pods can drive individually or by attaching themselves to other pods to form a bus-like structure where travelers will be able to move freely from one pod to another. This technology will be the first of its kind in the region, and the partnership between Next and Careem will bring a new wave of transportation infrastructure to the Middle East that is safer, more efficient and environmentally friendly. The pods are designed to operate as a mass transportation system that shuttles people from door to door. They will pick passengers up on demand and link together in bus-like form on the journey to get each person from point A to point B as efficiently as possible. The NX1 pods are designed to travel short and medium distances in dedicated lanes at an average speed of 20 kph and can be coupled in 15 to 20 seconds or detached in five seconds. Each measures 2.87 m in length, 2.24 m in width and 2.82 m in height and weighs about 1,500 kg. They have a capacity for 10 riders, with six seated and four standing, and can operate for three continuous hours before a six-hour recharge. www.careem.com Future Transportation pods for Dubai Source: RTA SCIENCE & RESEARCH Traffic safety International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 30 Streetcar accidents in built-up areas Accident occurrence and measures for improving-safety Streetcar accidents, Tramways, Safety audits, Intersections, Track beds Around 4,100 streetcar accidents with personal injury in 58 German cities in a threeyears-period were analyzed. Pedestrians make up by far the largest share of fatalities and cases of serious injury. Cyclists also feature disproportionately strongly in accidents involving serious injury. Pedestrians suffer serious accidents disproportionately often on stretches of road and at streetcar stops. Streetcars themselves are main responsible in only 15.7 percent of the analyzed accidents. Serious accidents occur, in particular, at signal-controlled intersections and on threeor four-lane roads with a separate streetcar track bed in the middle. Jean Emmanuel Bakaba, Jörg Ortlepp T here are streetcars in 60 large German cities. The numbers of accidents on roads in built-up areas and, in particular, the numbers of fatalities and serious injuries have been falling for years [1]. However, this positive trend does not extend to accidents involving streetcars. In absolute terms, the numbers of streetcar accidents and the associated casualties have been stagnating for years. Accident and safety comparison Bauhaus University Weimar was commissioned by the UDV (German Insurers Accident Research) to carry out a comprehensive study of the accident statistics, based on around 4,100 streetcar accidents in 58 German cities (Figure 1) in the period from 2009 to 2011 [2]. The aim of the research was to find out how, where and when the various road user groups are involved in accidents with streetcars, the consequences of these accidents and what measures can be taken to improve this situation. Three-quarters of the road users killed in accidents involving streetcars are pedestrians, and around 16 percent are cyclists (Figure 2). Pedestrians also make up by far the largest share (37 percent) of those suffering serious injuries, followed by the occupants of cars and cyclists. Streetcar accidents are significantly more serious than accidents involving cars and buses overall (Figure 3). To assess safety, the accidents were studied in relation to the distance covered and number of people transported [3]. The accident cost rate for streetcars is up to eight times higher than it is for cars in relation to the distance covered but only a fifth of that for cars in relation to the number of people transported (Figure 3 right). If only the number of fatalities is considered, streetcars are no better than cars in terms of the number of people Figure 1: Investigated cities with streetcars in Germany All sources in this article: UDV Traffic safety SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 31 transported and 35 times more unsafe in terms of the distance covered. Network analysis and affected infrastructures The network analysis carried out revealed that track beds in the middle of the road were significantly less safe than track beds at the side of the road or off-road track beds. Threeor four-lane cross sections with a separate track bed in the middle of the road have the highest accident cost rate. A disproportionately high number of accidents on separate track beds are primarily caused by pedestrians. The majority of streetcar accidents involving injury (86 percent) occur at intersections and within the range of their direct influence, which is up to 50 meters. Serious accidents occur, in particular, at signal-controlled intersections (Figure 4) and on threeor four-lane roads with a separate streetcar track bed in the middle (Figure 5). Pedestrians are the main causers of these accidents in a particularly high number of cases. There is a higher risk of accidents associated with multi-lane road crosssections with a track bed in the middle of the road than with roadside or off-road track beds. Recommendations The key findings of the research project can be summarized as follows: When new infrastructure is built or existing infrastructure is altered or upgraded, a roadside track is to be preferred. Wherever there is sufficient space, off-road Figure 2: Killed and injured persons by type of road users Figure 3: Economic costs of different modes of transport by driving (left) and passenger (right) kilometers SCIENCE & RESEARCH Traffic safety International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 32 track beds should be preferred. Only where this is not possible should a track in the middle of the road be considered. The areas around intersections, in particular, should then be very carefully planned with road safety in mind. At intersections, efforts must be made to make the streetcar track easy to notice, to provide enough pedestrian crossing facilities with safety features and signal control to allow motor vehicles to turn off the road. The intersection area and the space around it must be kept free of obstacles to visibility. Streetcars should have separate phases at signal-controlled intersections (thus preventing any conflicts with other vehicles, cyclists or pedestrians). On existing stretches of road, pedestrian crossings with safety features must be upgraded in locations where there is a need to cross, where there are significant flows of pedestrians or where significant numbers of crossingrelated critical situations or accidents occur. Safety audits [4] should always be carried out when new infrastructure is planned or when the existing infrastructure is being altered or upgraded. Audits are also recommended for existing infrastructure in order to identify and eliminate existing potential safety shortcomings, particularly at accident concentration points. The specific checklists developed during the project can be used for this. They can also help transport companies to analyze their accidents. Further improvements could be achieved through more research into both the automatic detection of conflict situations involving streetcars and the development of energy-absorbing front panels for streetcars. In addition, target group-specific and local campaigns should be developed to sensitize all road users, for example, for pedestrians to take care when they are crossing the road. ■ LITERATURE [1] DESTATIS (2010-2012). Federal Statistical Office, Verkehrsunfälle (Traffic accidents); Fachserie 8, Reihe 7, 2009-2011; Wiesbaden 2010-2012 (annual) [2] Brannolte, Griessbach, Plank-Wiedenbeck (2016). Maßnahmen zur Reduzierung von Unfällen mit Straßenbahnen (Measures designed to reduce streetcar accidents); commissioned by: Unfallforschung der Versicherer UDV; final report, Berlin 2016 [3] Ifeu (2013). Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH, Transport Emission Model (TREMOD 2013), commissioned by: Umweltbundesamt (Federal Environment Agency) Version 5.3 (2012) as at: 19.06.2013 (Gohlisch, G., Umweltbundesamt, Fachgebiet 3.1 Umwelt und Verkehr (Environment and transport), unpublished [4] FGSV (2002). German Road and Transport Research Association (FGSV), Empfehlungen für das Sicherheitsaudit von Straßen (Recommendations for road safety audits, ESAS), FGSV-Nr.: 288, Köln 2002 Jörg Ortlepp Head Traffic Infrastructure , German Insurers Accident Research, Berlin (DE) j.ortlepp@gdv.de Jean Emmanuel Bakaba, Dr.-Ing. Manager Traffic Infrastructure, German Insurers Accident Research, Berlin (DE) e.bakaba@gdv.de Figure 4: Average accident costs of different intersection types Figure 5: Average accident costs of different types of cross-section Mobility innovation SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 33 Vehicle Stock Modelling: A new approach Forecasting based strategy development for new-mobility solutions Vehicle stock model, Mobility innovations, Market acceleration forecasts, Time-series-analysis, Planning measures Forecasting mobility and travel demand with the aid of dedicated model-based approaches is a recognized method to deal with challenges related to urban transport planning as well as the fulfilment of political goalsetting. Nevertheless, even if for the transport segment a large variety of forecasting models exists, the specification on limited purpose forecasts doesn’t meet the requirements of integrated, realistic, longterm planning measures. The presented vehicle stock model as a generic, multi-purposeoriented forecast tool closes this gap with a new, time series analysis based approach. Lea Heinrich, Felix D. Segel, Wolfgang H. Schulz H ow can new business models be developed and integrated into a saturated market? How can we manage mobility challenges such as environmental and resource constraints, infrastructure or funding - and how can change be addressed and managed? These are just three questions out of a broad set, the actors in the mobility and transport segment must deal with today. Climate change is a huge challenge for the society. Many countries of the European Union and the European Commission itself have set ambitious emission reduction targets to counteract the trend. These upheavals and paradigm shifts affect the transport sector, as a significant part of the emissions can be allocated to road transport with accounting more than 70 % of all greenhouse gas emissions in the EU28 in 2014 [1]. Nevertheless, the automotive industry - especially in Germany - on the other hand is a major driver for economic growth and bearer of innovation capacities. The automobile market therefore in recent times goes through radical structural changes that are mainly driven by increasing competition, pressure to innovate, system dynamics and a demanding business environment due to societal developments and political goal-settings. One major challenge for the automotive industry therefore is demand-focused innovation: To unlock market potentials by offering products and services that are promising to meet consumer needs with respect to regulatory guidelines and policy. The achievement of this goal is linked to various challenges regarding cross-industrial and cross-sectoral cooperation in the field of technology development as well as market deployment. The following statement with reference to autonomous vehicles (AVs) clearly demonstrates, the actors are aware of those challenges, they cannot properly predict and include appropriate measures in their strategies. “In the meantime, the industry will have to navigate through a number of difficult challenges and figure out how to take advantage of a few surprising opportunities. But few industry players are adequately prepared for — or even willing to fully acknowledge — the hurdles they must clear before AVs are able to produce real revenue.“ [2] Even if innovation activities require complete realignments of business activities and core competencies - the research and development activities must be separated from the actual market introduction decision. Political objectives as driving forces on the one hand enable faster product developments with less investments due to federal framework programmes including subsidies for cooperative, cross-sectoral technology developments. On the other hand, the actual market deployment decision of those R&D activities underlies high uncertainty, as this decision is accompanied with investments that are out of the subsidy scope and bear AUF EINEN BLICK Die Abschätzung der zukünftigen Mobilitäts- und Verkehrsnachfrage ist eine zentrale Herausforderung, sowohl bei der Entwicklung von Stadtverkehrskonzepten als auch bei der Erfüllung politischer Zielsetzungen. Um diesen planerischen Herausforderungen begegnen zu können, werden meist individuelle Berechnungsmodelle entwickelt, was zwar zu einer Vielzahl an verfügbaren Methoden führt, die jedoch auf spezifische Problemstellungen begrenzt sind. Das in diesem Artikel präsentierte Prognosetool schließt diese Lücke mithilfe eines neuen, zeitreihenbasierten Analyseansatzes der es erlaubt, Anwendungsbereich übergreifende Vorhersagen zu den technologiebasierten Entwicklungen im Transport- und Mobilitätssegment zu treffen. SCIENCE & RESEARCH Mobility innovation International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 34 high risks in terms of user acceptance and business potentials accordingly. As the market deployment of new technologies in the mobility and transport segment in most cases goes along with the adoption of existing infrastructure settlements and regulations. A comprehensive market deployment of promising technologies therefore mainly depends on adequate framework conditions that meet the requirements of working systems that - in additionare accepted by the society to exploit full potentials. In the past two decades, several researchers have sought to determine which approaches, methods and models are suitable for emission value control and for successfully reducing emissions in the transport sector, refocusing on vehicle technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and ensuring market deployment in terms of creating user benefits and realizing economic feasibility. The different methodologies and research approaches concerning market potentials are reflected in different forecasting models, whereby the focus areas and goal-settings regarding the targeted outcome of findings diverge in the level of specification on certain research topics. Policy assessment models, just as TREMOVE [3] are representative approaches that support decision-making on governmental level. As the focus herewith is clearly set on emission value and policy objective scenarios, the practicability of this approach must be questioned in terms of the applicability and transferability on other investigation scopes such as potential business models or customer acceptance. Further approaches (e.g. SEiSS, COPERT, BIG) [3, 4, 5, 6] that have been examined are using potential evaluation tools and forecasting methods based on comprehensive problem analyses. Nevertheless, a specific demand-oriented potential assessment that addresses overall economic interests including macroeconomic as well as business economic forecast scopes and that allows to derive policy-, industryand market-oriented guidance on specific geographic levels (city, state, federal government) considering existing and desired framework conditions is not available yet. The aim of the presented model approach therefore is to close this gap with the conception of a vehicle stock model (VSM) that delivers forecasts on new technology market success with the inclusion of external impact factor’s effects. This overall approach is not limited to a single investigation objective and offers high transferability potentials. The Model The proposed vehicle stock model (VSM) builds upon four driving forces which are assumed to determine the number of vehicles equipped with new technology capabilities, namely (1) OEM strategy, (2) customer demand, (3) political influence and (4) infrastructural factors. Since the first force raises needs for explanation, it is worth to add, that the VSM is based on the assumption, that development of new vehicle technologies must be completed before customers can decide whether to buy or use them. Therefore, market launches of new models are included within the OEM’s roadmaps and hence can be observed for a targeted forecasting period. Difficulties regarding this task are likely to occur due to data availability issues, because OEMs traditionally keep their specific roll-out dates secret. Further, uncertainties exist considering the type of technology introduction as an upgrade, basic or premium feature, leading to significantly different rates of equipped vehicles. By analysing historical data of vehicle registrations or stocks, the authors aim to build a base case forecast Figure 1: Basic model, refinement and evaluation scheme Input sources Form of output Qualitative survey Expert judgement Time series analysis • New vehicle sales split along three dimensions: 1. Private/ business owners. 2. Type of engine. 3. Geographical distribution. Identification of blind spots • Household survey to identify • demand (private and commercial use), • replacement rates, • price sensitiveness, purchasing intention • geographic “hotspots”, based on revealed and stated preferences. • Business model evaluation. • Political and legal developments. • Demand development. • Technology evaluation and technological developments. • Integration of interaction effects (e.g. more business owners in urban areas). Base case scenario Refined scenarios Use cases • Expected development of upper class models until December 2020. • Static/ dynamic development of split dimensions. • Provides insights on an averaged basis. • Identification of relevant use cases with regards to estimated ramp-up development. • Allow final recommendations. • Enables market size estimation of different cases. Mobility innovation SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 35 which is enriched by qualitative methods (e.g. survey, expert interview). Afterwards, the forecast can be modified with a bottom-up (e.g. fixed rate of newly registered electric vehicles) as well as a top-down approach (e.g. reaching a specified market share at a certain point in time), resulting in different scenarios and use cases. This capability ensures that the VSM is resilient in in terms of changing framework conditions. At this stage, it is important to note that the authors assume that new car model registrations take place in an efficient market. Analogues to financial stock data, these numbers reflect current demand, prices and every other possible factor. As an example, if an OEM promotes a certain car model with substantial discounts, model registrations of this vehicle are assumed to increase given that fact that this is a relevant variable for consumers. In contrast to time series analyses, a factorial regression model which e.g. includes list prices that are not affected by these promotional activities would not be able to capture such developments. Therefore, trying to analyse this data with a finite set of explanatory variables could let to significant blind spots and hence biased forecasts. Applying time series analyses as the primary tool circumvents such inherent model risks. Additionally, being able to expand the analyses with explanatory variables provides sufficient flexibility as well as granularity to account for certain events like the German scrapping incentives, OEM pricing strategies or other qualitative features of individual car models. In this case, the model would combine the best of both i.e. time series and conventional regression. Nevertheless, the evaluations might leave certain questions unsolved when it comes to the qualitative analysis of the forecasting data. Even if the intention of the presented model is to be independent from concrete information on model prices and related market acceleration effects, a validation of those assumptions seems necessary. The research gap by now is the lack of proof concerning a concrete use-case that currently is of high relevance and that clearly demonstrates the benefits of the presented model approach including the altering influencing parameters (refinement factors) that must be investigated. Figure 1 presents the general architecture of the model, including influencing variables and expected outputs. For the time series analysis, we used data from the German Kraftfahrtbundesamt (KBA) [7, 8, 9] which is the Federal Motor Transport Authority. The focus within this exemplified calculation lies on so called upper class vehicles. To determine which car models fit into this segment, we followed the categorization of the KBA. Based on their recent publications, we determined a selection of nine vehicles representing over 90 % of the “upper class” segment since 2014. Beside one model (Volkswagen Phaeton) the subset is likely to be in production until 2020 and hence provides a sufficient basis for our forecasts. The data set covers the time span from January 2004 until December 2017 and includes the monthly number of new registrations into the German car register for each model. Looking at these numbers, one can clearly see that they are quite noisy (see figure 2). To identify a long-term trend development, time series decomposition is applied to extract seasonality as well as random noise. Forecasting a Scenario This part will illustrate the basic capabilities for scenario forecasting of our VSM. For this purpose, we will examine the hypothesis that the German Government will introduce regulations which predetermine hybrid and electro vehicle registration rates at a fixed level from January 2018 on. We will have a specific look at BMW 7 Series registrations and how these would be affected by the regulation. First, we forecast car model registration numbers. An ARIMAX (autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous inputs) model is applied to the time series of BMW 7 Series registrations. Since we already observed that the registration development is not just influenced by seasonality but also driven by product life cycles, we need to account for this dependency via an exogenous input. Specifically, we integrate the age of the production series measured in years. Using a regression analysis, it can be 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Monthly car registrations: BMW 7 Series Actual Registrations Trendline (MA with n = 6) Figure 2: Historic development of BMW 7 Series registrations. Considering that this model has seen major upgrades in November 2008 as well as in October 2015, the trendline is driven by the model’s product life cycle. This relationship is typical for most of the analyzed models. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Forecast of new BMW 7 Series registrations Actual Registrations Trendline (MA with n = 6) Forecast Figure 3: Forecast of BMW 7 Series registrations including empirically observed development. Based on an ARIMAX (0,1,2) (2,0,0) model chosen by using the Akaike information criterion. Coefficients are significant on a 90 % level of significance. Evaluating the model accuracy with estimated coefficients based from 2004 to 2014, we calculate approx. 3 % deviation in cumulated registrations from January 2015 to December 2017. SCIENCE & RESEARCH Mobility innovation International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 36 shown that after eliminating the effect of the product cycle, the time series is stationary over time. After selecting an appropriate model, a forecast is conducted until the end of 2020. Figure 3 presents the empirically observed trend up to December 2017 as well as the subsequent forecast. In accordance with the analysis of historic registrations, it is not surprising that the model’s forecast primarily follows the expected product life cycle, not including a major model upgrade. Returning the focus to our example scenario, we applied a fixed minimum registration for hybrid and electro vehicles rate of 10 %, with the results illustrated in figure 4. Considering that China is assumed to introduce similar regulations [10] and historic hybrid registrations of BMW 7 Series cars amount to approx. 7 % on average, this rate seems to be within a realistic probability space. Conclusion and Outlook The overall assumption regarding the applicability of the presented VSM approach was, that with the used methods a far more precise and realistic forecast on new technology market deployment and diffusion can be given, as the likelihood of disregarding continuous and biasing occurrences is lowered. This on the one hand can be reasoned by an extensive observation period. On the other hand, the authors use time series analysis that allows to take account for the characteristics related to new car model registrations. Therefore, the presented model can be regarded as a more detailed bottom-up approach compared to those which have been developed by now. With the presented VSM, more detailed assumptions with shorter forecasting periods can be made. Furthermore, the geographical aspect is addressed by converting the federal state’s vehicle stock share (see figure 5) to the forecasted scenarios, whereby detailed geographical splits and local characteristics and related effects will be included with the model refinement upon data availability. This allows the authors to improve forecasts on both, the macroand the micro-level. Overall, the improvements given by applying the presented method are mainly the benefits that can be realized in terms of specific information distribution for specific stakeholders. For market-oriented stakeholders, e.g. automotive OEMs, the model is beneficial especially in markets characterized by high dynamics and changing framework conditions. In a next step, the authors are in a next step forecasting the market acceleration and business potentials for standardized inductive charging systems for electric vehicles. The technology development by now is conducted within a research project funded by the German government (STILLE) [11], whereby the market introduction is announced for 2020. This use case will clearly outline a representative case that unions all the impact variables influences and the importance for decision making of major stakeholder on industry, consumer, related market actors and governmental level. The basic model’s forecast therefore will be refined by a qualitative analyses of user preferences and market potentials by conducting expert-interviews and consumer-surveys that shall enable the authors to identify the actual influences of user behaviour, price sensitiveness, technology 0 250 500 750 1.000 1.250 1.500 2017 2018 2019 2020 Scenario analysis: Additional electro and hybrid BMW 7 Series registrations (cumulated) Additional electro + hybrid registrations (cumulated) Forecast Figure 4: Additional electro and hybrid BMW 7 Series registrations (cumulated starting at January 2017) based on the scenario that there will be a minimum registration rate of 10 % for electro and hybrid vehicles starting at January 2018. The forecast is based on the model presented in figure 3. Figure 5: Heatmap of historic electro and hybrid registration share in Germany from 2006 to 2016 Mobility innovation SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 37 acceptance as well as needs and strategies of local authorities. With applying these aspects, an overall significant demonstration of the model’s capabilities will be made. ■ LITERATURE [1] European Commission (2018): A European Strategy for low-emission mobility. Retrieved 2018-04-04 from https: / / ec.europa.eu/ clima/ policies/ transport_en [2] Hirsh, Evan; Jullens, John; Kalpundi, Ganesh (2016): The Auto Industry’s Real Challenge. Sep 29, 2016. Forbes Media. Retrieved 2017-12-04 from https: / / www.forbes.com/ sites/ strategyand/ 2016/ 09/ 29/ the-auto-industrys-real-challenge/ #2f2c017fc69f [3] Samaras, Zissis (2008): European Database of Vehicle Stock for the Calculation and Forecast of Pollutant and Greenhouse Gases Emissions with TREMOVE and COPER. Final Report. Retrieved 2017-12-07 from http: / / emisia.com/ sites/ default/ files/ 08RE0009V2_ Fleets_Final.pdf [4] Fridstrøm, Lasse; Østli, Vegard; Johansen; Kjell Werner (2016): A stock-flow cohort model of the national car fleet. Retrieved 2017-12-12 from https: / / link.springer.com/ article/ 10.1007/ s12544-016-0210-z [5] Fridstrøm, Lasse; Østli, Vegard (2016): Vehicle fleet forecasts based on stock-flow modeling. Institute of Transport Economics. Retrieved 2017-12-10 from https: / / www.toi.no/ getfile.php/ 1 3 43 8 59/ P ublika sjoner/ T % C 3 % 98 I % 20rapporter/ 201 6/ 1 51 8-201 6/ 1518-2016-sum.pdf [6] Abele, Johannes et al. (2005): Exploratory Study on the potential socio-economic impact of the introduction of Intelligent Safety Systems in Road Vehicles (SEiSS). VDI/ VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH [7] Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt. (2018). Neuzulassungen von Personenkraftwagen nach Segmenten und Modellreihen. Retrieved 2018-03-31 from https: / / www.kba.de/ DE/ Statistik/ Produktkatalog/ produkte/ Fahrzeuge/ fz11/ fz11_gentab.html? nn=1146130 [8] Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (2018): Neuzulassungen von Personenkraftwagen nach Marken und Modellreihen. Retrieved 2018-03-31 from https: / / www.kba.de/ DE/ Statistik/ Produktkatalog/ produkte/ Fahrzeuge/ fz10/ fz10_gentab.html? nn=1146130 Felix D. Segel Student Assistant at the Chair for Mobility, Trade and Logistics, Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen (DE) f.segel@zeppelin-university.net Wolfgang H. Schulz, Univ.-Prof. Dr. Owner of the Chair for Mobility, Trade and Logistics and Director of the Center for Mobility Studies | CfM, Zeppelin University, CEO and founder of the Institute for Economic Research & Consulting GmbH (IERC), Friedrichshafen (DE) wolfgang.schulz@zu.de Lea Heinrich, MA Project Coordinator, Zeppelin University, Center for Mobility Studies | CfM, Friedrichshafen (DE) lea.heinrich@zu.de FACE THE CHALLENGES OF MOBILITY Founded in 1949 - bound forward to face the challenges of tomorrow‘s mobility: With an editorial board of renowned scientists and an advisory board of directors, CEOs and managers from all transport industry areas, »Internationales Verkehrswesen« and »International Transportation« - the worldwide distributed English-language edition - rank as leading cross-system transport journals in Europe for both academic research and practical application. Rail and road, air transport and waterway traffic — »International Transportation« and »Internationales Verkehrswesen« stimulate a worldwide interdisciplinary discussion of the numerous defiances in mobility, transport, and logistics. The magazines are targeted at planners and decision makers in municipalities, communities, public authorities and transportation companies, at engineers, scientists and students. With peer-reviewed scientific articles and technical contributions the magazines keep readers abreast of background conditions, current trends and future prospects - such as digitalization, automation, and the increasing challenges of urban traffic. Read more about the magazines and the subscription conditions: www.internationales-verkehrswesen.de www.international-transportation.com INTERNATIONALES VERKEHRSWESEN AND INTERNATIONAL TR ANSPORTATION »Internationales Verkehrswesen« and »International Transportation« are published by Trialog Publishers Verlagsgesellschaft, D-Baiersbronn VISIT US IN BERLIN 26 - 27 June 2018 IV_Image_halb_quer.indd 1 30.04.2018 14: 28: 35 [9] Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt. (n.d.). Neuzulassungen von Personenkraftwagen nach Bundesländern und ausgewählten Kraftstoffarten absolut. Retrieved 2018-03-31 from www. kba.de [10] Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (28.09.2017): Die E-Auto-Quote in China kommt. Retrieved 2018-03-31 from http: / / www.faz.net/ aktuell/ wirtschaft/ unternehmen/ elektroautos-china-fuehrt-die-elektroquote-ab-2019-ein-15222043.html [11] Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi) (2016): ELEKTRO POWER II: Elektromobilität - Positionierung der Wertschöpfungskette Retrieved 2018-03-20 from https: / / www.bmwi.de/ Redaktion/ DE/ Publikationen/ Industrie/ elektromobilitaet-positionierung-der-wertschoepfungskette.pdf? __blob=publicationFile&v=5, p. 15-15 SCIENCE & RESEARCH Reducing emissions International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 38 The travel demand impacts of fare-free regional public transport in Germany Public transport, Transport model, Nitrogen dioxide The pressure on city administrations in the EU to comply with European NO 2 limits increases. Therefore, new ideas and solutions that can be implemented short term are sought. One idea being intensively discussed in Germany is providing fare-free public transport in cities. The paper presents likely travel demand impacts of this measure as modelled with the German national transport model DEMO. Results show a significant increase of public transport trips and kilometres under such a scenario. However, passenger car vehicle kilometres would only decrease moderately indicating only small reductions of urban NO 2 emissions due to fare-free public transport. Tudor Mocanu, Christian Winkler, Tobias Kuhnimhof I n Germany, an intensive debate evolves around options for improving air quality in cities by reducing nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) emissions. Numerous air quality measuring stations in various cities have repeatedly exceeded the annual limit value for NO 2 (40- mg/ m 3 ) specified by the EU directive 2008/ 50/ EG. The limits were only exceeded at measuring stations located in the vicinity of major roads. Thus road traffic has been identified as a major contributor. Even though in recent years the proportion of measuring station where nitrogen oxide limits were exceeded declined, Germany is still facing the threat of incurring significant financial penalties if the air quality thresholds are not met nationwide. This situation has triggered a public debate about policy measures that are best suited to tackle the issue of NO 2 emissions. Aside from the effectiveness for improving air quality the wider consequences of these measures including their impacts on mobility and public finances are part of the debate. One of the more drastic measures would be a complete ban on diesel vehicles for certain urban areas (e.g. inner cities), as diesel vehicles have comparatively high nitrogen oxide emission rates. However, about one third of the private vehicle stock in Germany is diesels. Hence, diesel bans would have a substantial impact on the mobility of a significant proportion of the population and on residual values of many private vehicles. Therefore diesel bans are very controversial. Among other policy measures aiming at improving air quality in cities, German authorities have proposed the idea of offering fare-free local public transport [1]. Several German cities (Bonn, Essen, Herrenberg, Reutlingen and Mannheim) were suggested for testing this measure and evaluate its efficiency. Later, these plans have been taken off the table mostly because of financing issues. However, the question remains whether this policy measure is suitable and would have the desired effects on traffic and urban air quality in Germany. The concept of fare-free local public transport is not new at all and has been discussed repeatedly in the past, including in this journal [2]. The debate has mostly revolved around the concepts for financing such a scheme. Aside a theoretical debate, there are also practical experiences with fare-free public transport. Several cities around the world have implemented or tested AUF EINEN BLICK Der Druck auf Stadtverwaltungen und Länder in der Europäischen Union zur Einhaltung der NO 2 -Grenzwerte steigt. Aus diesem Grund werden neue Ideen und kurzfristig umsetzbare Lösungen zur Reduzierung der Emissionen gesucht. Eine Idee, die vor kurzer Zeit in Deutschland kontrovers diskutiert wurde, ist die Einführung eines Nulltarifs im Öffentlichen Personennahverkehr (ÖPNV) in Städten. Die möglichen verkehrlichen Wirkungen einer solchen Maßnahme wurden mit Hilfe des deutschlandweiten Verkehrsmodells DEMO quantifiziert. Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden die Ergebnisse vorgestellt und diskutiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen signifikante Erhöhungen der Anzahl der Wege und der Verkehrsleistungen im Öffentlichen Personennahverkehr. Allerdings gehen die Fahrleistungen des PKW-Verkehrs nur moderat zurück, was auf eher geringe Rückgänge der städtischen NO 2 -Emissionen infolge eines kostenfreien ÖPNV hindeutet. Reducing emissions SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 39 fare-free local public transport. One of the most important use cases is the city of Tallinn in Estonia, which has been offering fare-free public transport services to inhabitants since 2013 [3]. Another example of a city currently implementing such an approach is Aubagne (France) [4]. This paper contributes to the current debate on farefree public transport by providing quantitative figures on the travel demand effects of such a measure for a large study area. The paper presents transport model-based results for fare-free regional public transport on the national level for Germany. Methodical approach and scenario definition Estimating the effects of nationwide fare-free regional public transport requires a multimodal national transport model. The DLR Institute of Transport Research has developed a model suitable for this task (DEMO). DEMO consists of several modules covering both passenger and freight transport on the entire territory of Germany, which is divided into more than 6,500 traffic analysis zones. The passenger transport model is split into two complementary sub-modules for short distance trips (trips up to 100 km) and long distance trips (trips of 100 km and over) respectively. This differentiation enables addressing the specific characteristics of these two segments of passenger transport adequately, for example mode choice options: mode options for short distance trips include walking, cycling, car and local public transport; mode options for long distance trips are car, rail, touring busses, long-distance scheduled busses and airplanes. For both modules, travel behaviour parameters are mostly derived from the German national household travel survey MiD 2008 [5] and German value of time study [6]. Further information on DEMO can be found in [7] and [8]. DEMO enables impact assessment for a wide range of policy measures and technological changes in transport supply on travel demand in Germany. Public transport service quality and user costs are important input parameters. For this study, we only used the travel demand module for short distance trips as we assumed that long distance trips would not be affected. The base year for our scenarios is 2011. In addition to a reference scenario, reflecting the transport supply situation as it was in 2011, we defined a fare-free regional public transport scenario. In this scenario there were no costs to all public transport trips in the short distance travel demand module, i.e. for public transport trips up to 100 km. All other input parameters, including public transport travel times and service quality, remained unchanged. Offering regional public transport free of charge is a radical measure and is expected to increase public transport ridership substantially. It is likely that at least in some areas and on some routes the current capacity of public transport services would not be sufficient to absorb the additional travel demand. This would lead to overcrowded vehicles and make public transport less attractive. The scenario we defined in this study is hypothetical and based on the assumption that necessary service improvements are made in order to supply equal service conditions as before. Hence, we do not look at travel demand impacts if fare-free public transport was implemented on top of current services. Instead, our scenario deals with the question of what would happen if the (perceived) system quality remained at current levels but was provided free of charge. Likewise, in this study we do not consider the financial implications of fare-free public transport on transport companies and local authorities. We simply assume that adequate funding will be available to provide the required level of service. The focus of this study is solely on estimating changes in travel behavior and transport demand. Results The modelled impacts of fare-free regional public transport on travel demand included both trip destination and mode choice changes for short distance trips. As expected, this policy measure pulls users towards using public transport services and reduces the shares of other modes of transport. On the national level, the scenario results indicate that the regional public transport mode share would increase from 9 % in the reference scenario to 14 % in the fare-free regional public transport scenario, as shown in figure 1. This translates into additional 5.5 billion annual public transport trips in Germany, i.e. the number of public transport trips would increase by about 66 %. Of the 5.5 billion additional public transport trips per year, almost two thirds are won from car travel, while the rest come from non-motorized modes (walking, cycling). As we limited the modelled travel demand impacts on destination and mode choice we did not consider induced 115 217 68 63 563 522 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Reference Fare-free PT Distance travelled in bn passenger km per year Public transport Non-motorized Car 9% 36% 55% 14% 34% 52% Mode shares (percentage of trips) Figure 1: Impact of fare-free regional public transport on mode shares and distances by mode (trips up to 100 km) SCIENCE & RESEARCH Reducing emissions International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 40 trips due to the fare-free public transport; hence, the overall number of trips is the same in both scenarios. As the model accounts for changes in the destination choice, there is an impact on the total (passenger) distance travelled. The distance travelled with public transport is estimated to increase by almost 90 % and thus substantially more than the number of public transport trips, indicating higher average public transport travel distances. This is logical as shifting modes to public transport trips is even more attractive in the case to long trips for which the relative cost advantage is much more pronounced than for short trips if public transport is free of charge. Resulting accessibility improvements are also the reason why total passenger distances travelled including all modes increase by about 8 % in the fare-free public transport scenario. The distance travelled by car on trips up to 100 km is expected to decrease by about 7 %, resulting in a reduction of about 40 billion passenger km per year in Germany. After applying trip purpose-specific occupancy rates, the decrease in vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) on German roads due to fare-free regional public transport is esti- Figure 2: Reductions in car traffic as a result of fare-free regional public transport Reducing emissions SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 41 mated to be about 30 billion km per year. This reduction is not uniformly spread across Germany, but is concentrated on roads in areas with high population density, where a significant proportion of the short and regional travel occurs. Figure 2 shows that the decrease of road traffic due to fare-free regional public transport is more pronounced in urban areas and metropolitan agglomerations (e.g. Berlin, Munich, Ruhr region, Frankfurt etc.). Decreases are smaller on overland motorways where traffic is dominated by long distance trips and freight transport. For major German cities where about 30 % of the total population lives and where air quality issues are most severe the scenario estimates a reduction of about 10 billion VKT per year. This equals to roughly 9 % of current car traffic on trips up to 100 km and 6 % of the total road traffic (i.e. including long distance trips and freight transport). This 6 % reduction allows for a rough estimate of the potential air quality benefits in the fare-free regional public transport scenario. Discussion These results are in line with some of the findings from previous studies, as compiled in [3]. Several cities reported an increase in public transport ridership ranging between 50 and 100 %. Other cities, e.g. Templin in Germany, reported much higher increases in public transport usage. It is important to note that the relative increase in public transport ridership is greatly affected by the public transport mode share before fare-free scheme is introduced. The lower the previous public transport mode share, the higher its price elasticity and the higher the relative increase. On the contrary, the relative increase in public transport ridership due to fare-free service will be smaller in areas with high preexisting public transport use. The presented fare-free regional public transport scenario attempts to shift travel to public transport solely through “pull” measures. These results can also be compared with scenarios combining push and pull measures which also include steps that discourage private car usage [9]. Results from such a scenario, also derived using DEMO, show that an even higher reduction in car traffic can be achieved using a combination of less extreme “push” and “pull” measures [7]. The advantage of such an approach would be less induced traffic overall and no decrease in walking and cycling at the expense of public transport ridership. Conclusions This study presented a fare-free regional public transport scenario assuming identical public transport service quality as today. Despite the hypothetical character of this scenario, the results provide valuable information on possible changes in travel demand. Moreover, because we disregarded possible decreases in public transport service quality, e.g. because of crowding, our scenario represents a maximum scenario with regard to the possible mode shift towards public transport due to fare-free service. The model results suggest that a fare-free regional public transport would be a drastic intervention in the German transport system with far-reaching consequences. Specifically public transport distances travelled would almost double under these scenario conditions. However, the results also indicate that road traffic reductions in major German cities would be moderate: local car traffic would be reduced by about 9 % and overall road traffic by about 6 % in these locales. The expected benefits for air quality can be estimated based on these results. This reduction is possibly sufficient to comply with NO 2 limits; this, however, is uncertain and subject to further investigation. On the other hand it is evident that fare-free local public transport would have significant implications on public finances; specifically, because significant increases in public transport use associated with fare-free services would require substantial expansions of public transport supply in order to maintain today’s level of service (more vehicles, drivers etc.). In light of these results and insights, fare-free regional public transport cannot be recommended as an efficient stand-alone measure to improve urban air quality despite various positive effects that it is likely to have. ■ LITERATURE [1] German Government (2018): Letter from the Minister of the Environment Barbara Hendricks, the Minister of Transport Christian Schmidt and the Chancellery Minister Peter Altmaier to European Environment Commissioner Karmenu Vella. [2] Gondlbach, K. (2014): Kostenloser ÖPNV: Utopie oder plausible Zukunft? In: Internationales Verkehrswesen, Vol. 66, Issue 3, pp. 24-26. [3] Hess, D. B. (2017): Decrypting fare-free public transport in Tallinn, Estonia. In: Case Studies on Transport Policy, Vol. 5, pp. 690-698, Elsevier. [4] Zobel, C. (2010): Aubagne and Etoile Region, France: Free public transport. Available online https: / / www.uclg-cisdp.org/ sites/ default/ files/ Aubagne_2010_en_final_0.pdf. [5] Follmer, R.; Gruschwitz, D.; Jesske, B.; Quandt, S.; Lenz, B.; Nobis, C.; Köhler, K.; Mehlin, M. (2010): Mobilität in Deutschland 2008 - Ergebnisbericht, In: Bundesministerium für Verkehr, B.u.S. (Ed.), Bonn, Berlin. [6] Axhausen, K. W.; Ehreke, I.; Glemser, A.; Hess, S.; Jödden, C.; Nagel, K.; Sauer, A.; Weis, C. (2015): Ermittlung von Bewertungsansätzen für Reisezeiten und Zuverlässigkeit auf der Basis eines Modells für modale Verlagerungen im nicht-gewerblichen und gewerblichen Personenverkehr für die Bundesverkehrswegeplanung, Schlussbericht. In: Bundesministerium für Verkehr und Digitale Infrastruktur, B.u.S. (Ed.), Berlin. [7] Winkler, C.; Wolfermann, A.; Mocanu, T.; Burgschweiger, S. (2017): Modellierung des Personen- und Güterverkehrs in Deutschland als Entscheidungsunterstützung für die Politik. In: Straßenverkehrstechnik, Vol. 61, Issue 8, pp. 551-558. [8] Winkler, C.; Mocanu, T. (2017): Methodology and Application of a German National Passenger Transport Model for Future Transport Scenarios. In: Proceedings of 45th European Transport Conference, Barcelona. [9] Seum S.; Goletz, M.; Kuhnimhof, T. (2017): Verkehrssystemforschung am DLR - Mobil in Deutschland 2040. Teil 2: Die Szenarien des VEU-Projektes. In: Internationales Verkehrswesen, Vol. 69, Issue 2, pp. 78-81. Christian Winkler, Dr.-Ing. Head of the Team Transport Modelling, DLR Institute of Transport Research, Berlin (DE) christian.winkler@dlr.de Tobias Kuhnimhof, Dr.-Ing. Head of the Department Passenger Transport, DLR Institute of Transport Research, Berlin (DE) tobias.kuhnimhof@dlr.de Tudor Mocanu, Dipl.-Ing. Research associate, DLR Institute of Transport Research, Berlin (DE) tudor.mocanu@dlr.de SCIENCE & RESEARCH Local public transport International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 42 Walking, waiting, interchanging A scenario-based analysis of user requirements in-local public transport Public transport, Mobility on demand, Mobility as a service, Demand-responsive transport, Ridepooling, Estimated time of arrival This paper describes the results of an acceptance study about requirements for use of public transport. The study focused on user requirements about waiting periods at bus stops, walking distances to the destination and the acceptance of interchange connections from the point of view of different user groups. To gain these findings, a scenariobased analysis of user requirements was carried out. The aim was to determine the framework conditions under which future public mobility concepts could be used. One case of application would be demand-responsive transport concepts like ridepooling. Kathrin Viergutz I t sounds like a typical statement of users of public transportation systems: “I like busses that ride quickly and promptly and without interchanges. I-also prefer routes without detours and don’t want to walk big distances.” - In this paper this presumption about the attitudes of passengers are kept under close scrutiny. Among other things, the question is asked whether the participants prefer direct connections instead of connections where they have to change. Another question concerns the importance of short walking distances to stations. The evaluated study makes a valuable contribution to the research of passenger requirements for flexible and demand-oriented mobility concepts. The scenario-based analysis of user requirements focused on user requirements about characteristics of local public transport from the point of view of different user groups with methods of stated preference. Two of the main aspects that were included in the online questionnaire referred to passengers’ attitude towards walking distances to bus stops, waiting periods and the acceptance of interchange connections. These aspects are presented in this paper. Study design Scenarios: Extracted usage situations To gain findings about users’ requirement, a pairwise comparison was made. With this method, the participants are offered two alternatives in order to find out which one is preferred. It is a trade-off decision where the participants are not allowed to choose both options. In this study, participants were presented scenarios on two topics that can be seen in figure 1 and figure 2. For the first topic (walking and waiting), the participants were asked to imagine they are standing at a bus stop downtown. The bus ride to their destination would take 10 minutes, not taking the bus and walk instead would take 20 minutes. Three scenarios were presented to the participants for this topic: When taking the bus, the participants had to wait 5 minutes (scenario 1.1), 10 minutes (scenario Figure 1: Description and results of the first topic: Walking and waiting (Scenarios 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3) Source all figures: Author Local public transport SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 43 1.2), 15 minutes (scenario 1.3) until the bus arrives at the bus stop. The participants were asked to name the option they would prefer in each of the three cases. The second topic referred to interchanges. The participants again were asked to imagine they are standing at a bus stop downtown. There are two bus connections to choose from: One is a direct connection, at the other connection they had to interchange to another bus. Six scenarios were presented to the participants for this topic: 15/ 20 minutes direct vs. 10 minutes with one interchange (scenario 2.1a+b); 25/ 30 minutes direct vs. 20- minutes with one interchange (scenario 2.2a+b) and 35/ 40 minutes direct vs. 30 minutes with one interchange (scenario 2.3a+b). The specification of the time in each case refers to the total travel time, i.e. for interchange connections from boarding the first bus to leaving the second bus (including interchange time). The participants were asked to indicate the option they would prefer in each of the three cases. Personas: Requirements of different user groups Passengers have different requirements for public transport systems. In order to consider the needs of different user groups, the development of personas can be useful. In the project IP-KOM ÖV (2011) personas were developed. These are based on the recording of demands and characteristics of different passenger types with regard to their public transport use. For the study that is presented in this paper six of the personas with different characteristics, needs and requirements for public transport were used: Power users, ad hoc users, commuters, occasional users, everyday users and tourists. At the beginning of the questionnaire six statements of passengers were presented to the participants (see table 1). The task was to find themselves in one of the statements in order to enable the allocation of answers to typical personas during the evaluation. Study participants A total of 391 fully completed questionnaires were submitted in the online survey. As figure 3 shows, about 45-percent of the participants are up to 30 years old. In terms of gender distribution, the participants were almost balanced. About one quarter of the participants live in small towns with up to 10,000 inhabitants. This is the class with the largest share. Only about one in a hundred of the participants lives in the biggest size class of over 1 million inhabitants. Among the medium-sized and large cities, the distribution is reasonably balanced. Participants were asked to find themselves in the descriptions in statements of typical users of public transportation, as shown in table 1. Figure 4 shows the results of this task. The top three personas with whom the participants could identify most strongly are the adhoc user, the commuter and the power-user. In the further course of the description of the results, the answers of the individual user groups are evaluated separately. Results of the study Walking distances and waiting periods Short waiting periods are important for passengers. An evaluation of booking processes of the transportation network company Uberpool revealed that customers in general reject the transport offer when the waiting time (Estimated time of arrival) is about 15 minutes (Myhrvold 2015). So that is the critical amount of time that decides whether a person will use a provided service or better will search for alternatives. Already from a pre- Figure 2: Description and results of the second topic: Interchanges (Scenarios 2.1a/ b, 2.2a/ b and 2.3a/ b) Table 1: Statements in questionnaire and equivalent personas SCIENCE & RESEARCH Local public transport International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 44 dicted waiting time of four minutes, the probability of use decreases significantly. Short waiting periods are important for passengers. Even at high frequencies of service - i.e. at 5-minutes intervals - passengers do not arrive randomly at the station of metro lines but capture the right moment right before departure time (Luethi, Weidmann & Nash 2005). This phenomenon can be observed especially during the morning peak when most commuters know the schedule. Consequently during the peak passengers are more timetable-dependent and have strong claims on punctuality and short waiting periods (Paulley et al. 2006). Taking these cited study results into consideration, one of the main subjects of the study which is presented in this paper is the passenger’s acceptance of waiting times until the ride begins. The first topic addressed the choice between traveling on a bus including the previous waiting time and reaching the destination by walking. As figure 1 shows, in scenario 1.1 (5 minutes of waiting, bus trip of 10 minutes) more than three quarters of the participants opted for the bus-option and against a walk of 20 minutes. One possible reason for this is the overall shorter time to achieve the destination: 15 minutes in sum for waiting and riding vs. 20 minutes for walking. The answers in scenario 1.3 are the opposite. About 86 percent of the participants preferred a bus ride of ten minutes of 10- minutes after a waiting period of 15 minutes over a walking time of 20 minutes. Overall, the participants opted for the faster option in each case. The participants are therefore time-critical. These two scenarios have shown that the overall shorter time to achieve the destination was more popular in each case. What is particularly interesting is the question of how the answers would turn out if both options would take the same amount of time. This question was examined in scenario 1.2. When both options would take 20 minutes, still a little under two-thirds would walk the distance and about one third would wait ten minutes for the bus for a bus ride of ten minutes. One explanation is that inactive waiting times may be perceived as unpleasant, e.g. because the feeling of being able to control the situation yourself is higher when you walk. This observation is in line with the findings of other studies: passengers perceive waiting and walking times as more bothersome than longer travel times (in-vehicle-time) (Iseki & Taylor 2009). The evaluation of the answers of the individual user groups has shown that the power user in the scenarios 1.1 and 1.3 would be slightly more than average willing to wait for the bus (about 84 respectively 13 percent). Only in scenario 1.2 the amount of power user participants who would walk to the destination is significantly higher than the average: Only about 29 percent of the power users would wait for the bus. That is the same amount of commuters who would wait. This is exactly the opposite of the ad hoc user who in scenario 1.2 would be more willing to wait for the bus more than the average. About 45 percent of the power users would wait for the bus. As this evaluation shows, walking in all considered persona groups is popular when waiting for the bus and the bus ride in sum take the same time like walking but the ad hoc user is least willing to walk. Looking at the responses from different age groups, the proportion of participants who would be waiting for the bus in scenario 1.2 is highest in the oldest age group (over 60 years). As can be seen in figure 5, around 45 percent of this age group would be willing to wait for the bus. In scenarios 1.1 and 1.3 there are no major differences between the answers of individual age groups. Interchanges Key findings from literature research show that good conditions for comfortable interchanges are indispensable for the competitiveness of public transportation systems (Wardman & Hine 2000). It is unsurprising that many studies reveal the reluctance of passengers to interchange (Paulley et al. 2006). Wardman, Hine & Strading (2001) executed a meta study about penalty of Figure 3: Participants’ age, gender and population of place of residence Figure 4: Distribution of personas among the participants Figure 5: Results of scenario 1.2 by age groups Local public transport SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 45 interchange. The studies they cite in their paper differ about the time-effective or monetary amount of the penalty, but one perception can be found in every study: Interchange causes negative impact on the passenger’s perceived quality of service. Additionally the studies found out that the intensity of the negative impact is influenced by the gender of the passenger, the carried luggage, the all-over travel time or the fact whether a person is time-bound and needs to hurry. In the presented study the participants had to choose from a direct connection and a connection where they had to interchange to another bus. As figure 2 shows, about three quarter of the participants would choose the direct connection of 15 minutes over an interchange connection of about 10 minutes in total in scenario 2.1a. In the scenario 2.1b, the time for the direct connection increases to 20 minutes. Now the relationship is reversed: Over three quarters would put up with one interchange. The survey therefore showed that a small increase in travel time is acceptable for a generally short travel time, but not a doubling. Similar results were also obtained in the scenario 2.2a/ b where the participants opted for a direct connection that takes five minutes longer than the interchange connection, but were not willing to invest ten minutes in a direct connection. A comparison between scenarios 2.1a/ b and 3.1a/ b shows that the amount of participants who would choose the interchange connection (30 minutes) is still higher than the amount of participants who would choose the direct connection of 40 minutes - but is less than in the other scenarios. From the results of the survey it can be concluded that a five-minute difference between a direct and an interchange connection generally leads to the choice of the direct connection. Ten minutes difference is more painful for all the time spans requested. For a time saving of five minutes only a few participants accept the uncomfortable interchange, with a time saving of ten minutes but significantly more. Even if the change saves only a quarter of the total travel time (30 instead of 40 minutes), many participants choose the interchange connection. That shows that a short overall travel time is important. The threshold value is between five and ten minutes. If the more convenient direct connection “costs” five minutes, this is acceptable, ten minutes is too expensive. The evaluation of the answers of the individual user groups shows that for scenarios with a difference of five minutes (2.1a, 2.2a, 2.3a), commuters choose the direct connection more often than average, but for scenarios with a ten-minute difference (2.1b, 2.2b, 2.3b), the proportion of commuters who choose the direct connection is approximately at the average level. This shows that communters are even more time-sensitive than the average decision: An investment of five minutes in a convenient connection is acceptable, but ten minutes is too expensive. In scenarios with a difference of ten minutes (2.1b, 2.2b, 2.3b) ad hoc users choose the direct connection more often than average, which can be interpreted as a greater proportion of ad hoc users who are used to driving by car prefer comfortable connections to fast connections. The evaluation of the answers of the age groups (Figure 6) has shown that in scenario 2.3a as well as in 2.3b the youngest and the oldest age groups were less willing to take the slower direct route than the other age groups. Key findings of the presented study The study has shown that • participants are time-sensitive, even interchanging and walking is accepted. • participants would rather walk a short distance than taking the bus, if both options would take the same time in total. • the threshold value at which participants would opt for the faster interchanging connection over a more comfortable direct connection is between five and ten minutes. • in all considered persona groups but the ad hoc user walking is popular when waiting for the bus and the bus ride in sum take the same time like walking. Derivations of study results for future public transport The presented study revealed that a short travel time is important for passengers using public transport. Passengers also appreciate direct connections, but are prepared to accept interchanges if this significantly reduces the total travel time. The idea is that Demand-responsive Transport (DRT) is more suitable to meet the needs of passengers than line based transport systems. Demand-responsive Transportation (DRT), also called Ridepooling concepts, are digital mobility concepts with a high degree of spatial and temporal flexibility, bundling transport requests of different passengers in real-time. Algorithms based matching of travel demand of different users which harmonize in time and space creates individual routes in the sense of a shared mobility. The operation without fixed stops and the high flexibility due to the renunciation of timetables results in a high quality of service for the customer, combining the advantages of both individual and public transportation (Laws 2009). The presented study has shown that inactive waiting times in particular are perceived as unpleasant. DRTs, which due to their high degree of spontaneity and their short pre-booking times could mean shorter waiting times (Estimated time of arrival), could increase the quality of service from the passenger’s point of view. Stopping as close as possible to the starting and destination point could contribute to reducing the out-of-vehi- Figure 6: Results of scenario 2.3a/ b by age groups SCIENCE & RESEARCH Local public transport International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 46 cle-time of the individual travel chain, which adds up to a proportion of 60 percent in scheduled service (Monheim 2010). As, door-to-door service could contribute to increasing the attractiveness of demand-oriented transport even more. A prerequisite for this is that journeys with DRT are realized on an ad hoc basis and that long walking times do not occur due to the fact that the service is independent of the stop. As the study has shown, interchanges are unpopular with passengers. One way that DRT can improve public transport is to provide direct connections between destinations that can only be reached by interchanges with existing line transport. In summary, the presented study gives an impression of the passenger requirements for public transport. In particular, this has created the basis for increasing the quality of service for passengers in future mobility concepts. ■ LITERATURE IP-KOM ÖV (2011): Internet Protokoll basierte Kommunikationsdienste im öffentlichen Verkehr. Das Begleitheft für den Entwicklungsprozess Personas, Szenarios und Anwendungsfälle aus AK2 und AK3 Iseki, H.; Taylor, B.D. (2009): Not all transfers are created equal: Towards a framework relating transfer connectivity to travel behaviour. Transportation Review 29 (6), S. 777-800. Laws R. (2009): Evaluating publicly funded DRT schemes in England and Wales, PhD Thesis, Loughborough University, Loughborough Luethi, M.; Weidmann, U.; Nash, A. (2005): Passenger arrival rates at public transportation stations. Available at http: / / citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/ viewdoc/ download? doi=10.1.1.621.1572& rep=rep1&type=pdf Monheim, H. (2010): „Gutachten Finanzierung der Verkehrssysteme im ÖPNV - Wege zur Nutzerfinanzierung oder Bürgerticket? “ Available at: http: / / www.leipzig.de/ fileadmin/ mediendatenbank/ leipzig-de/ Stadt/ 02.6_Dez6_Stadtentwicklung_Bau/ 66_Verkehrs_ und_Tiefbauamt/ Fachgutachten_Monheim.pdf (Retrieved 10 March 2018) Myhrvold, C. (2015): Uber Expectations As We Grow. Available at: https: / / newsroom.uber.com/ uber-expectations-as-we-grow/ Paulley, N.; Balcombe, R.; Mackett, R.; Titheridge, H.; Preston, J.; Wardman, M.; Shires, J.; White, P. (2006): The demand for public transport: The effects of fares, quality of service, income and car ownership. Available at: http: / / ac.els-cdn.com/ S0967070X05001587/ 1s2.0-S0967070X05001587-main.pdf? _tid=98848690-714e-11e7-ad18-00000aacb35f&acd nat=1500996984_9753f196d770c7bc19184df3f17184ec Wardman, M.; Hine, J. (2000): Costs of Interchange: A Review of the Literature. Working Paper. Institute of Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK. Available at: http: / / eprints. whiterose.ac.uk/ 2075/ 1/ ITS208_WP546_uploadable.pdf Wardman, M.; Hine, J.; Strading, S. (2001): Interchange and Travel Choice Volume 2. Report for the Scottish Executive by the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds and the Transport Research Institute at Napier University. Scottish Executive Central Research Unit 2001. Available at: https: / / www.researchgate.net/ profile/ Julian_Hine/ p u b l i c a t i o n / 2 6 5 3 2 0 8 9 5 _ I n t e r c h a n g e _ a n d _ T r a v e l _ C h o i c e _ V o l u m e _ 1 / links/ 54c3be170cf2911c7a4c9e9b.pdf Kathrin Viergutz, M.Sc. Wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Institut für Verkehrssystemtechnik, Braunschweig, kathrin.viergutz@dlr.de Seal of approval for scientific contributions Peer reviews - a transparent quality assurance instrument for authors and readers P eer review processes are recognized worldwide as quality assurance tools. They represent a method to constructively and critically handle research findings, scientific analysis, and technical developments in a specific area. As well, they help to ensure that scientific contributions submitted to our journal meet our high publication standards. The publisher and editorial staff therefore invite researchers and developers in the transportation industry, scientists, engineers, and students to submit appropriate manuscripts for publication in the science section with an accompanying statement to the editorial staff. 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The authors’ identities remain anonymous throughout the entire review process. • Using a standardized evaluation form, the reviewers conduct their evaluations and then provide the editors, in writing, with their comments as well as a recommendation concerning whether the manuscript should be published in its original form, if any revisions must be made, or if the manuscript cannot be accepted for publication. • The reviewers’ evaluations are not forwarded directly to the authors. Thus, the reviewers’ identities remain unknown to the authors (double-blind review). Interested authors will find the guidelines for authors, information about related formalities, and the form for submitting a contribution at www.internationales-verkehrswesen.de/ autoren-service KONTAKT Eberhard Buhl, M.A. Managing Editor Internationales Verkehrswesen / International Transportation eberhard.buhl@trialog.de International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 47 Academics SCIENCE & RESEARCH Projects in a nutshell Overview of selected mobility research projects Sensors on speaking terms T he objective of the research project SADA is to develop technology that enables linking data from mobile on-boardsensors (on vehicles) with data from an unknown stationary sensor infrastructure in an intelligent and flexible way, independent from brand, manufacturer, or application area. SADA will enable the unrestricted dynamic integration and analysis of data from various heterogeneous sensors. This should be used for example to support driving comfort functions, to promote driving safety, and to contribute to environment protection by preventing traffic jams and searches for parking space. Modern cars are equipped with an increasing amount of onboard sensors. The expected market penetration of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), including autonomous driving, will turn future cars and trucks into moving measuring stations. In many cities, also traffic infrastructure is or is being equipped with sensors, gathering current information about traffic flow, traffic load, or parking space occupancy. A combined assessment of data from stationary infrastructure sensors and mobile sensors in cars may contribute to optimize the utilization of traffic infrastructure, reduce traffic jams and searches for parking space, and decrease the emission of CO 2 and particulate matter. For electric vehicles in particular, this evolution creates many opportunities to raise the benefit and the acceptance of such vehicles. For example: • Range prediction and driving style adjustment for optimized use of energy • Autonomous driving of the “last stage”, e.g. to get to the loading station • Systematic degradation to increase the range • Better environment perception for situational reaction, e.g. warning pedestrians through sound, avoiding unnecessary deceleration • Organized operation of vehicles in fleets, e.g. car sharing, follower function in a platoon However, the combination of data from mobile units and infrastructure is normally not put into practice today. There are no methods to use the many existing components in a modular fashion and to recombine them flexibly. One fundamental reason for this is that sensors and evaluation procedures, including necessary hardware and software, are developed independently and are not standardized. Therefore, sensors and data logging systems from different manufacturers and application areas cannot communicate with each other. In the joint research project SADA, solutions are developed for a dynamic integration and processing of data derived from various, non-concerted sensors. The project will demonstrate how data collected by onboard sensors of a car may be combined intelligently and very flexibly with data from an unknown stationary sensor infrastructure. This shall lead to situational implementations of complex new application ideas. Under the direction of Siemens, six partners from industry and research cooperate in this joint research project. As its demonstration platform, SADA uses the EO Smart Connecting Car 2 (EOscc2), a concept car developed by the DFKI RIC. EOscc2 is a highly flexible robotic electric vehicle with extended four wheel steering which allows driving sideways and diagonally as well as turning on the spot. The car is able to shrink by almost 80 cm in length. These capabilities facilitate parking in the city. Through its modular design, EOscc2 may be extended by modules for additional functions, e.g. for storage or passengers. Within the SADA Project, this concept is implemented as a range extender, i.e. as a trailer with extra batteries. More information: www.projekt-sada.de Vehicle networking with its environment Source: Siemens EO Smart Connecting Car 2 (EOscc2) Source: DFKI GmbH/ Timo Birnschein International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 48 SCIENCE & RESEARCH Academics Scenario 2050: Lithium and Cobalt might not suffice W ith the increased significance of lithium-ion batteries, the pressure on the availabiltity of relevant ressources rises. Lithium and cobalt are fundamental components of present lithium-ion batteries. Analysis by researchers at the Helmholtz Institute Ulm (HIU) of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) shows that the availability of both elements could become seriously critical. Besides lithium as charge carrier, cobalt is a fundamental component of the cathode in present lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), determining the high energy and power density as well as the long lifetime. However, this element is suffering from scarcity and toxicity issues. “In general, the rapidly growing market penetration of LIBs for electromobility applications, such as fully electric cars, will lead to an increasing demand for raw materials, especially with respect to lithium and cobalt”, says Professor Stefano Passerini, who supervised the study together with Dr. Daniel Buchholz at the Helmholtz Institute Ulm. Their scenario-based analysis until 2050 for various applications of batteries shows that the shortage and price increase of cobalt are likely to occur, since the cobalt demand by batteries might be twice as high as the today’s identified reserves. In contrast, today’s identified lithium reserves are expected to be much less strained, but the production will have to be strongly upscaled (possibly more than ten times, depending on the scenario) to match the future demand. Source: Festo BionicFlyingFox: Ultra-lightweight flying object with-intelligent kinematics D evelopers from the Bionic Learning Network of German automation company Festo took a close look at the flying fox and technically implemented its special flying characteristics into the “BionicFlying- Fox”. Due to the combination of the integrated on-board electronics with an external motion-tracking system, the ultra-lightweight flying object is able to move semi-autonomously in a defined airspace. The flying fox belongs to the order Chiroptera - the only mammals that can actively fly. A particular characteristic is the fine elastic flying membrane that stretches from the extended metacarpal and finger bones down to the foot joints. In flight, the animals control the curvature of the flying membrane with their fingers, allowing them to move aerodynamically and agilely through the air. They thereby achieve maximum uplift, even when performing slow flying manoeuvres. With a wingspan of 228 cm and a body length of 87 cm, the artificial flying fox weighs just 580 g. Like the natural flying fox, its wing kinematics are also divided into primaries and secondaries and covered with an elastic membrane, which continues from the wings down to the feet. This makes its wing area relatively large, allowing a low area loading. As with the biological model, all the articulation points are on one plane, meaning that the BionicFlyingFox can control and fold its wings together individually. The model’s flying membrane is waferthin, ultralight whilst also robust. It consists of two airtight films and a knitted elastane fabric, which are welded together at approximately 45,000 points. Due to its elasticity, it stays almost uncreased, even when the wings are retracted. The fabric’s honeycomb structure prevents small cracks in the flying membrane from getting bigger. This means that the BionicFlyingFox can continue flying even if the fabric sustains minor damage. The BionicFlyingFox is able to move semi-autonomously in a defined space, it communicates with a motion-tracking system. The installation constantly records its position. At the same time, the system plans the flight paths and delivers the necessary control commands for this. A person performs the start and landing manually. The autopilot takes over in flight. An important part of the external motion-tracking system is two infrared cameras. They detect the flying fox by means of four active infrared markers attached to the legs and wing tips. The images from the cameras go to a central master computer. It evaluates the data and coordinates the flight from outside like an air traffic controller. In addition, pre-programmed paths are stored on the computer, which specify the flight path for the Bionic- FlyingFox when performing its manoeuvres. The wing movements required to ideally implement the intended courses are calculated by the artificial flying fox itself with the help of its on-board electronics and complex behaviour patterns. The flying fox gets the control algorithms necessary for this from the master computer, where they are automatically learnt and constantly improved. The Bionic- FlyingFox is thus able to optimise its behaviour during the flights and thereby follow the specified courses more precisely with each circuit flown. In this respect, the controls are governed by the movement of the legs and hence the adjustable wing area. www.festo.com/ bionic See the BionicFlyingFox in action: www.festo.com/ group/ en/ cms/ 13130.htm International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 49 Academics SCIENCE & RESEARCH Redox Flow Battery: Storage System for the Energy Transition T he redox flow battery might be a key component in the future power grids: It can be scaled as desired, recycled, and it ensures stable energy storage. Moreover, no scarce resources are needed for its production. So far, however, adaptation of the batteries to each application scenario has been required. In future, this will be accomplished by a novel battery management system developed by researchers of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). The energy transition requires solutions for the decentralized storage of solar and wind power and the balancing of fluctuating production capacities. Centralized solutions, such as pump-storage power plants, are associated with enormous space and capital requirements. It would be easiest to store the power decentrally in batteries. Apart from the established lithium-ion batteries, the innovative redox flow battery technology is given increasing interest. Here, electrical energy is stored in liquid chemical compounds. Frequently, a vanadium electrolyte is used, which is stored in tanks in various oxidation states. Similar to the fuel cell, the current is produced at a membrane. The size of this membrane determines the power (kW), while the energy (kWh) depends on the tank size, i.e. the amount of liquid used. Hence, energy and power of the redox flow battery can be scaled independently of each other. Due to the small energy density, redox flow batteries are large and heavy - lightweight lithium-ion accumulators are much better suited for electronic devices and electric vehicles. On the other hand the vanadium used for the common accumulator is among the most abundant elements, whereas worldwide lithium resources might be exhausted in a few decades from now. And the redox flow battery is fireproof, because a thermal runaway, uncontrolled heating, can be excluded. It is less toxic and it can be recycled contrary to the lithium-ion battery. No breakthrough of flow technology has been achieved yet. To change this, Thomas Leibfried and his team at KIT’s Institute of Electric Energy Systems and High-Voltage Engineering have developed an automatic battery management system. This system ensures that the redox flow battery is always operated at the point of highest efficiency both in the charge and the discharge cycle, no matter for which purpose it is applied. Its electric efficiency is mainly determined by the pumping speed: If pump operation is accelerated, its internal resistance decreases. Hence, loss during energy conversion decreases as well. However, the system needs more energy for the pump. Depending on the power needed or supplied during operation, the new battery management system finds the ideal compromise. Another important component for efficient operation is the thermal management system, because cooling also needs energy and has to take place at the right time. As soon as the prototype will have demonstrated its functionality, the battery management system will be miniaturized: The mature version will fit onto a microchip. www.energy.kit.edu However, both elements additionally suffer from strong geographical concentration, moreover in countries which are reported to be less politically stable. According to the researchers, this gives rise to strong concerns about a possible shortage and associated price increase of LIBs in the near future. “It is therefore indispensable to expand the research activities towards alternative battery technologies in order to decrease these risks and reduce the pressure on cobalt and lithium reserves”, says Daniel Buchholz. Stefano Passerini, HIU deputy director, emphasises: “Post-lithium systems are especially appealing for electromobility and stationary applications. This is why it is both very important and urgent to unlock their potential and develop these innovative, high-energy batteries towards market maturity.” These results are further confirmed by the global scenario for battery applications in the field of electromobility until the year 2050, recently developed at HIU and published as book chapter. “The future availability of cobalt for the mass production of LIBs has to be classified as very critical, which is also evident from the price increase of cobalt higher than 120 % within one year (2016-2017)“, HIU system analyst Dr. Marcel Weil points out. In addition, the establishment of a battery economy with a high rate of recycling would certainly be imperative to decrease the pressure on critical materials. Both studies highlight the importance of new battery technologies based on low-cost, abundant and, at best, non-toxic elements, demonstrating the importance of their further development in order to decrease the pressure on critical resources. REFERENCES: C. Vaalma, D. Buchholz, M. Weil and S. Passerini: A cost and resource analysis of sodium-ion batteries. Nat. Rev. Mater. 3, 18013 (2018). Online: http: / / rdcu.be/ IWu1 M. Weil, S. Ziemann, J. Peters: The Issue of Metal Resources in Li-Ion Batteries for Electric vehicles. In: Behaviour of Lithium-ion Batteries in Electric Vehicles. Amsterdam, 2018 Regions with highly concentrated reserves: the “lithium triangle” in South America and, for cobalt, the “copperbelt” in Central Africa. Source: Nature Reviews Materials, Macmillan Publishers Ltd International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 50 SCIENCE & RESEARCH Academics Innovation Center for Artificial Intelligence at Universiteit van Amsterdam (UVA) T he University of Amsterdam officially launched an Innovation Center for Artificial Intelligence (ICAI) which is focused on the joint development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology through industry labs with the business sector, government and knowledge institutes. Maarten de Rijke, director of ICAI and professor of Information Retrieval at the University of Amsterdam: “The Netherlands has all the resources to take up a prominent position in the international AI landscape - top talent, innovation strength and research at world-class level.” In the joint ICAI-Ahold Delhaize industry lab, the AIRLab, seven PhDs will conduct research into socially responsible algorithms that can be used to make recommendations to consumers and into transparent AI technology for managing goods flows. The research will take place at Albert Heijn and bol.com, both brands of Ahold Delhaize. In addition, AIRLab will focus on talent development tracks. Frans Muller, deputy CEO Ahold Delhaize: “Artificial Intelligence offers countless possibilities for the retail industry, the consumer and society at large. With this partnership, we want to further develop our ongoing initiatives and learn how AI can be used to better serve the interests of our customers. For instance, we will look at how to further optimise Albert Heijn’s supply chain by, for example, improving the availability of goods by taking into account local weather conditions.” Artificial intelligence is today’s foremost technological innovation and promises to bring about major changes in society. AI investment is taking flight worldwide. ICAI is an open collaborative initiative between knowledge institutes that is aimed at AI innovation through public-private partnerships. The Center is located at Amsterdam Science Park and is initiated by the University of Amsterdam and the VU University Amsterdam together with the business sector and government. The organisation is built around industry labs - multi-year partnerships between academic and industrial partners aimed at technological and talent development. ICAI will be housed in a new co-development building where teaching, research and collaboration with the business sector and societal partners will come together. www.uva.nl Artificial Intelligence Source: pixabay.de The easier way of hydrogen production U sing light to convert stable and abundant molecules like water and CO 2 into a high energy fuel (hydrogen) or into chemicals of industrial interest, is a major research challenge today. However, achieving artificial photosynthesis in solution remains limited by the use of costly and toxic metal-based compounds to harvest light. Researchers at the Département de Chimie Moléculaire (CNRS/ Université Grenoble Alpes) and SyMMES (CNRS/ CEA/ Université Grenoble Alpes) now demonstrated an efficient alternative: It is possible to produce hydrogen very efficiently by combining inorganic semiconductor nanocrystals (quantum dots) formed of a copper and indium sulfide core protected by a zinc sulfide shell, with a cobalt-based molecular catalyst. This “hybrid” system combines the excellent visible light absorption properties and the great stability of inorganic semiconductors with the efficacy of molecular catalysts. In the presence of excess vitamin C, which provides electrons to the system, it shows remarkable catalytic activity in water, the best obtained to date with cadmium-free quantum dots. This system’s performance is much higher than that obtained with a ruthenium-based photosensitizer, due to the very high stability of inorganic quantum dots, which can be recycled several times without notable loss of activity. These results show the high potential of such hybrid systems for hydrogen production using solar energy. M. Sandroni, R. Gueret, K. D. Wegner, P. Reiss, J. Fortage, D. Aldakov, and M.-N. Collomb: Cadmium-Free CuInS2/ ZnS Quantum Dots as Efficient and Robust Photosensitizers in combination with a Molecular Catalyst for Visible Light-Driven H2 Production in Water. In: Energy & Environmental Science, 10 April 2018. DOI: 10.1039/ c8ee00120k. Source: CNRS/ CEA/ Université Grenoble Alpes International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 51 Events FORUM Evolution, revolution, transformation? Review: The MoviCi-MOYCOT joint Conference 18 to 20 April 2018 in Medellin showed, how digitalization and automation are likely to change urban mobility in smart cities worldwide. The MoviCi and MOYCOT projects German mobility researchers are looking with interest at the developments in the mobility market in Colombia, from which valuable insights can be gained. That is why the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and its Traffic Research Institutes (Institute of Transport Research and Institute of Transportation Systems) have founded the German-Colombian expert network Movilidad urbana en ciudades intelligentes (MoviCi, Engl.: Urban Mobility in Smart Cities). The aim of the network project is to promote the exchange between German and Colombian stakeholders in the mobility sector, especially those coming from science, industry, local transportation authorities, and transportation companies. The focus is on current developments in intelligent, integrated, and intermodal mobility in cities of the future. The project is part of the international “Shaping the Future - Building the City of Tomorrow” campaign, which is financially supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The Urban Traffic Modeling and Control Project (Modelamiento y Control de Tráfico Urbano, MOYCOT), launched in 2013 in the city of Medellín, is a Colombian research initiative led by Prof. Jairo Espinosa of the Universidad Nacional de Colombia that aims to improve mobility in this Colombian metropolis. The team of Prof. Jairo Espinosa supports the Medellín municipalities by evaluating measures for reducing vehicle congestion and optimizing the services for the bus rapid transit (BRT) system. One of the regularly used tools for testing new methods is the microscopic traffic simulation software SUMO, developed and supported by the DLR and freely available under an open source license. Joint Conference 2018 in Medellín, Colombia From April 18th to 20th, 2018, German and Colombian scientists from the expert networks MoviCi and MOYCOT jointly organized a symposium in Medellín, Columbia on the topic of urban mobility and solutions for intelligent transportation systems (ITS). The symposium was organized by two DLR bodies (Institute of Transportation Traffic Research and Institute of Transportation Systems) and the Universidad Nacional de Colombia. More than 120 researchers, practitioners, and developers, most of whom are based in South America and Europe, took part in this three-day event. The topics of the conference sessions were grouped into the following seven categories: Traffic Modeling and Simulation, Traffic Management and ITS, Mobility and Users, Data and Methods, Mobility and Smart Cities, Governance and Urban Transportation, and Freight and Logistics. In his keynote speech entitled “Bottom-Up Sustainable Mobility”, Wouter Florizoone, a Belgian entrepreneurial engineer and co-founder of new mobility and traffic concepts, addressed how communication between citizens, politicians, and scientists can be enhanced. He presented the leuvenair 1 project, which aims, on the one hand, to increase citizens’ awareness of air pollution and, on the other hand, to collect a large amount of real-time data obtained via citizen science initiatives. Prof. Sergio Velastin’s keynote speech addressed the potential of video analysis to improve urban traffic. In a very illustrative way, he demonstrated the strengths and challenges of video data collection and analysis in high-density urban traffic. Prof. Dirk Heinrichs, who opened the conference with his keynote speech entitled “Evolution, Revolution, or Transformation”, explained the developmental paths towards implementing digital and automated mobility concepts and services in the future. Evolution The way and the speed with which people can move within cities depends, among other things, on the communication between the actors in urban areas. New mobility concepts have the potential to increase the quality of living in cities. At present, waiting times at bus stops and train stations, traffic jams, accidents, and parking space restrictions further limit urban mobility. Digitization opens up completely new Researchers, practitioners and developers attended the Joint Conference 2018 in Medellín. Photo: MoviCi-MOYCOT joint network More than 120 attendants took part in this three-day event. Photo: MoviCi-MOYCOT joint network International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 52 FORUM Events paths for urban communication and thus for concepts for intelligent urban mobility. The rapid pace of change is particularly evident in Colombia, where a multitude of new transportation services are being created. Although an increase in the automation of private vehicles is not currently apparent, first approaches to automated driving already exist. In the Medellín suburb of Rionegro 2 , which includes the city’s international airport, the feasibility of driverless tourist shuttles will soon be explored in collaboration with the Medellín-based Fastrack Institute, an emerging think tank directly linked to other research facilities in California’s Silicon Valley. The city intends to establish a new urban planning concept, which includes the simulation of various future scenarios in order to further promote existing public usage. Seeing automated vehicles on the streets of Medellín will soon become a reality. Revolution There seems to be no doubt that the introduction of automated mobility services is imminent. Thanks to scientists like Prof. Juan Carlos Mendoza Collazos from the National University of Colombia (UNAL), the first methods for electric and automated car sharing have already been tested in the field. Collazos has, for example, proposed a public electric car-sharing system for Bogotá that can be integrated into the existing transportation system. Its development consists of two components, namely, a carsharing scheme and a prototype of a new motor vehicle concept. Its development consists of two components, namely, a carsharing scheme and a prototype of a new motor vehicle concept based on state-of the art technology. The strategic selection of the main target group of “young executives who use the private car for commuting” aims to address one of the main causes of traffic jams. Consequently, his new vehicle concept offers a persuasive solution for encouraging individuals belonging to this group to use public transportation. However, before the revolution can begin, other issues must be addressed. For one, new mobility services usually have an impact on existing urban constructions, infrastructures, and the spaces for human activity. Therefore, prior to the introduction of new mobility services, established structures must be more closely studied, because often the lack of accessibility prevents people from trying out new forms of mobility. Using Mexico City and Berlin as examples, the young scientist Jorge Narezo Balzaretti from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) illustrated the importance of accessibility for acceptance within the society. In his study, Balzaretti proposed a methodology that uses accessibility measures to assess the quality of infrastructure (e.g., schools, parks, and public transportation stops) and the performance of the public transportation system in urban areas, based on objective, quantitative data bases. To this end, he used fine-grained data on the level of single households and the positions of single-activity locations, a detailed road network representation, and a description of public transportation offerings. His results showed that accessibility measures based on limited data sources are valuable input parameters for urban planning activities. Furthermore, he could demonstrate that his method is feasible for benchmarking the accessibility of urban areas in regard to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In order to reach the goal for more sustainability within the public transportation sector, so-called “what-if ” simulations could help to understand substantial changes in transportation demand. Such approaches, which reflect attempts to “think outside the box”, provide new perspectives for researchers like Prof. Natalia da Silveira Arruda from the Colombian University of Antioquia. She has studied the structuring of the metropolitan, collective public transportation system of the Aburrá Valley Metropolitan Area (AVMA). The aim of her research has been to understand the process of territorial and transportation policy decisions that were implemented in the South Korean Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), which can be used as a case study example for contextualizing a reorganization of Colombia’s collective public transportation system. A comparison between the SMA and AVMA case studies was made in order to put the characteristics of the AVMA collective public bus transportation system in evidence. Transformation These days, we are witnessing the emergence of a large number of new mobility options that are enabled by progress in digitalization. Without doubt, the demandresponsive flexibility of public transportation systems will have a considerable bearing on mobility choices and transportation demand. For example, with respect to legal considerations, the issue of whether vehicles will be allowed to stop anywhere presents an immense challenge. For this reason, the young scientist Alexandra König from the German Aerospace Center (DLR) has been analyzing travelers’ assessments of different service characteristics of demandresponsive transportation services. To this end, she employed conjoint analysis methods to examine the relative contributions of different attributes of ride-pooling schemes (e.g., the factor “walking distance to pick-up point”) to overall appraisals of utility function. Both travel time and comfort will be the key criteria for measuring the quality of services in the future. Thus, it is of great relevance to make optimal use of the existing road capacity by harmonizing the flow of traffic. One way to address the related congestion issue is to include effective public The ropeway system, called Metrocable, was designed to reach some of the city’s informal settlements on the steep hills. Photo: pixabay International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 53 Events FORUM transportation systems, such as bus rapid transit (BRT) systems, which are commonly found in larger cities in Colombia. Nowadays, however, these transportation systems must not only be efficient but also ecofriendly, in order to avoid the problems associated with fossil fuel combustion. In this context, electric vehicles (EVs) can play a key role towards reducing congestion and pollution in metropolitan areas because they can be used in more environmentally sustainable public transportation systems. Therefore, in order to address these issues, battery charging management strategies for electric BRT systems in Medellín have been put forth by Semaria Ruiz from the National University of Colombia (UNAL). In her study, she recommended using a battery management system for the bus fleet and the power charging stations that includes an optimization process that takes variations in electricity prices into account. In order to do so, energy consumption of buses must be estimated. To this end, the SUMO traffic simulator has been used to generate demand scenarios and predict the energy expenditure during travels by means of a test road network. Conclusion In summary, a variety of innovative and promising approaches for improving urban mobility were presented at the conference. It became clear that research work must focus on understanding users’ mobility decisions (e.g., choice of transportation mode, ownership, etc.). Furthermore, the differences in transportation usage with regard to the regulatory, regional, and cultural contexts have to be considered more closely. In addition, the potential effects of regulation (costs of road infrastructure and parking) need to be examined. Automated driving and automated mobility services present new challenges for city planners. Only by linking research with real experiments in public areas will new solutions be generated and expected benefits for urban mobility systems achieved. ■ 1 Leuvenair.be 2 https: / / avsincities.bloomberg.org/ global-atlas/ americas/ co/ rionegro-co Contact: Dipl. Ing. Mathias Höhne, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Transportation Systems, Berlin (DE); mathias hoehne@dlr.de Challenges for mobility in the European transport sector Preview: The 16th European Transport Congress (ETC): “Mobility and the European Transport Space” will be held from 24 to 25 September 2018 in Warszawa (PL). Prof. Elzbieta Zaloga gives an overview. F or the third time, Poland will host the European Transport Congress (EPTS). Over two days, discussions will be held on topics related to the following areas: • mobility - vision of the future, • accessibility of the European transport infrastructure, • fair competition. Transport is an area of management encompassing a wide range of relations and dependencies to the economy, society, and the environment. Scientists have been studying these relationships for a long time and have made enriching theoretical advances in the field of transport economics. Their work has influenced how transport systems are managed as well as how economic policies that address increasingly complex economic and social problems are developed. Identifying the problems of modern transport operations requires interdisciplinary studies and multithreaded analyses. Today, transport theorists are establishing their positions in the field of transport management, where changes in many settings require adopting new approaches to studying efficiency, understanding the essence of public goods, and acknowledging the social responsibility of transport companies 1 . In addition, the field of transport economics has recognized the holistic functions of transport systems in the economy and thus expanded the scope of its interests to include social and environmental aspects. Integration is the underlying theme of the 16th European Transport Congress. Owing to its primary function, transport plays an important role for many types of integration. For example, a transport system’s features can have a bearing on the level of spatial cohesion in serviced communities, regions, or the country as a whole. In addition, a transport system may influence social cohesion, cross-border cooperation, accessibility to markets, directions of inter- Prof. Dr hab. Elzbieta Zaloga is President of EPTS in 2018 and Head of Transport Systems and Policy Department, University of Szczecin (PL); elzbieta.zaloga@wzieu.pl International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 54 FORUM Events national exchange, intermodal and comodal development, as well as commercial competition. The European Union’s transport space is based on systemic integration. Here, the important goals are to increase transport productivity, reduce CO 2 emissions, equalize the conditions of interand intra-modal competition, accommodate for modal shift, and ensure cohesion of modal transport systems. According to EU policy concepts, the European transport space should aim to move people and goods easily, reduce mobility costs, and foster sustainable development. Today, social mobility is determined by the possibility of individual motorization, the quality of the transport infrastructure network, and access to public transport services. Over the past decade, EU member states and policymakers have observed the phenomenon of increased social mobility with concern, as it interferes with other important goals they must reach, namely, to protect the environment, decrease urban congestion, and improve road safety. Although concepts for limiting mobility have been put forth, none of them have been put into practice yet. Instead, attention has focused more on carrying out mobility management, without attempts to limit mobility per se. In this regard, the new “Mobility as a Service” (MaaS) concept, presented during the ITS Europe Congress in Helsinki in 2014, has emerged. MaaS is a transportation model that aims to implement innovative mobility services by employing “… a digital interface to source and manage the provision of a transport related service(s) which meets the mobility requirements of a customer” 2 . MaaS was used for the first time in Finland in 2016. Since then, interest in activities based on this new business model has been increasing. It is expected that especially younger individuals belonging to the Y generation (millennials) will be attracted to this type of service, because they care more about the transport experience than about motor vehicle ownership. More specifically, they prefer solutions that meet their personal needs (tailored travel options), for example, a flexible model that provides access to transport services but allows them to occasionally use an automobile. In the literature, this trend has been described as reflecting a shift to a new paradigm, namely, from an ownership-focused to a servicefocused business model, which may result in a reduction of public transport offerings. The MaaS idea may be applied in freight logistics for last-mile transport as well (e.g., as in the Finnish project NOVELOG). As expected, new transport services, especially those falling in the realm of shared mobility, can make positive contributions to society (e.g., improvement in the spatial and temporal accessibility of transport, less traffic congestion, less traveling with own car, etc.). However, it remains unclear whether these new services might be reducing the demand for public transport in EU cities, the development of which has involved much effort over the past decade. The new transport services are based on intelligent transport systems (ITS), which are now being used more often in an effort to reach many of the EU’s strategic goals. Intelligent transport systems optimize transport processes so as to make better use of infrastructure, improve accessibility and safety, and reduce resource consumption. They contribute to changes in the pattern of social mobility and the development of ecomobility. Currently, the most important challenges involve creating a legal framework for the integration of intelligent systems at the institutional, technological, and operational levels and ensuring that the transport sector can adapt to innovative solutions and societal opinions concerning intelligent services in general. The Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) is based on the comprehensive European transport space, the core networks, and their respective corridor connections. It facilitates transport planning by using the most important transport connections. High-efficiency connections in the TEN-T meet the demands of economic and social freedom, increase resource efficiency, reduce transportation time and space used, limit external costs of transport, and save resources. However, does the choice of the mode based on this network conform to the expectations of politicians? Is the improvement of railways, the quality of inland navigation services, and public transport a sufficient prerequisite for accommodating the aims of a paradigm shift? The liberalization of the transport market is based on fair competition. It was initially expected that full liberalization of road transport would take place, if not only because of relatively insignificant market entry and exit barriers, but also, more importantly, because of the high level of free competition in this sector, which dominates the EU transport market. However, this has not been the case. Regulations concerning access to cabotage markets have reduced the potential for fostering competitiveness in the EU because of comparative advantages. The relatively low costs of transport services in the “new” member countries represent one case in point. Political actions that are intended to balance out costs of road transport services within the EU market area are protectionist in nature and do not adequately accommodate for integration effects. The issues touched upon here represent only some examples of the problems that concern scientists, politicians, and transport practitioners. The European Transport Congress is an appropriate platform to exchange views on the complex issues concerning contemporary European transport. ■ 1 Załoga, E. (2013). Trendy w transporcie lądowym Unii Europejskiej. Uniwersytet Szczeciński: Szczecin, Poland, p. 241. 2 Transport Systems Catapult (2016). Mobility as a service. Exploring the opportunity for mobility as a service in the UK, July 2016. Retrieved from https: / / ts.catapult.org.uk/ wp-content/ uploads/ 2016/ 07/ Mobility-as-a-Service_ Exploring-the-Opportunity-for-MaaS-in-the-UK-Web.pdf, p. 11. Warszawa. Photo: pixabay.de International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 55 Events FORUM Photo: VDA Transports Publics - The European Mobility Exhibition Preview: Transports Publics 2018 will be held from 12 to 14 June in Paris (FR) T ransports Publics, the European Mobility Exhibition, is Europe’s keynote event for the entire sector from 12 to 14 June 2018 in Paris. With the “Move Green! ” tagline, this year’s edition will be placing a special emphasis on the major challenges of energy transition. Transports Publics is recognised as the leading European showcase for innovations in equipment, services and policies relating to the entire mobility sector, bringing together leading European decision-makers from transport and politics. All the players in sustainable mobility will be there to demonstrate their ecological and technological exploits in everything from new energy sources to emissions control solutions via low-emission vehicles, active mobility, and more. 250 exhibitors will be showcasing their latest innovations and previewing their new releases: exhibits will include vehicles using clean energy such as electricity and biogas, smart batteries, energy recovery systems, solar-powered terminals, current sensors, and fleet management solutions. A dedicated track will highlight all the “Move Green! ” innovations on show at the event. Transports Publics 2018 is an opportunity to discover the industrial and technical applications arising from institutional commitments in France and elsewhere in favour of ecological transition, in line with the COP21, COP23, and One Planet summits. Together with the politicians and companies committed to sustainable, innovative mobility, the 2018 edition of the Exhibition is focusing on being green - the smart way. www.transportspublics-expo.com IAA Commercial Vehicles 2018 Preview: The leading transportation event plus New Mobility World Logistics from 20 to 27 September 2018, Hannover (DE) T he IAA Commercial Vehicles takes place in Hannover every two years, and is the world’s leading trade show for transport, logistics and mobility. It offers a unique cross section of the entire value chain in the industry, from vehicles to transport and logistics, and from manufacturers to the many medium-sized suppliers. The 67th IAA Commercial Vehicles in Hannover will address the question of what the future of commercial vehicles will be like. And in fact the whole commercial vehicle sector is on a path of innovation. As in many other branches of industry, the particularly important topics here are automation and connectivity, safety and security, environmental protection, electric mobility and new logistics and traffic concepts for the towns of the future. Connected and automated driving, zeroemission powertrains, urban logistics, and new mobility and transport services are the drivers of change. For these five topics the New Mobility World provides a multisectoral platform for decision-makers and designers to discuss and present the mobility and transport of tomorrow - leading to a more efficient, greener and smarter future. With the three event formats EXPO, FORUM and LIVE, the New Mobility World gives an extensive program of experiences. At its heart is the FORUM offering trade visitors and other interested persons a range of dialog settings for sharing inspiration and ideas. EXPO focuses on brands and products, cooperative schemes and getting to business contracts, while LIVE makes the road traffic of tomorrow something that everyone can experience. Urban space is the focus for challenges at the New Mobility World. As crystallization points for a large number of logistical innovations and challenges, cities demand a multisectoral approach - for alternative powertrains, for disconnecting usage, ownership and the payload, for better integration of various modes of transport, and for new solutions for the last mile. Detailled information: www.iaa.de International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 56 FORUM Events ConCarExpo - Solutions for tomorrow’s mobility Preview: The ConCarExpo 2018 takes place on 27 and 28 June in Berlin (DE). C onCar Expo is the largest European trade show for automated driving, connected car, Car2Car, Car2X und Car2mobile solutions bringing together more than 80 exhibitors and 1000 visitors from OEMs, suppliers, software companies, telecoms and consulting firms. In its third year it has become the annual industry meeting place to do business and form new strategies. At ConCar Expo visitors will find hundreds of solutions, products and services that will help overcome technical challenges. Plus, one can take advantage of a wide range of educational opportunities with over 70 presentations across two days that will deliver in-depth and detailed information on crucial industry issues. In 2018 there will be many highlights and features to take advantage of: • The new ConCar Congress offers four separate modules on Automated Driving, Automotive Mobility & Digital Infrastructure, IT Security for Vehicles and HMI & Automotive Connectivity. Presentations from companies including Toyota, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, Continental and IBM. So visitors can update their expertise and visit the show at the same time. • Two days of free presentation brings the ConCar Forum. Receive detailed information on the latest innovations from exhibiting companies. One of the highlights will be the presentation of Dr. Nikolaus Gollwitzer, CEO, Telefónica Germany NEXT GmbH • The new Partner Country UK comes with an own pavilion at which visitors can meet the most innovate CAV companies in the UK and discover what they have to offer to help your company develop its technology.The Westfield POD is the UK’s first fully autonomous vehicle and offers free test rides at dedicated times presenting its revolutionary technology. • One of the most popular features, the Car Pavilion will be back on the show floor: experience novelty technologies first-hand in real life cars including the Jaguar I-PACE. Finland’s best in agile software development, human machine interfaces and vehicle telematics will be presented at the Finland Pavilion. • The Start Up Area & Forum is the place to meet agile companies and discover brand new solutions for many kinds of challenges. Premiering in 2018 is the World Café, hosted by ECO-Association of the Internet Economy. People can discuss and share views on ‘Ensuring security and compliance of data processes in mobility ecosystems’ . More information and ticket registration at www.concarexpo.com The transport world meets at InnoTrans 2018 Preview: The 12th edition of InnoTrans will take place from 18 to 21 September 2018 on the Exhibition Grounds in Berlin (DE). I nnoTrans is the world’s leading trade fair for transport technology and takes place every two years in Berlin. In 2016, at the last event, 2,955 exhibitors from 60 countries presented the global rail industry’s innovations to 137,391 trade visitors who came from 119 countries. InnoTrans extends across the entire Berlin exhibition grounds, occupying an area of 200,000 m 2 gross! In order to ensure that exhibitors and trade visitors are able to keep their bearings, InnoTrans is sub-divided into five segments: Railway Technology, Railway Infrastructure, Public Transport, Interiors and Tunnel Construction. There are also some additional focuses within these segments: From vehicle manufacturers in the south of the grounds to suppliers of motors and gears in the northern area. From electrical engineering in the east of the grounds to boogies and wheelsets in the west. At InnoTrans 2018 electromobility will be the dominant theme at the Bus Display. Among the companies represented will be Sileo GmbH from Germany, Solaris Bus & Coach from Poland and VDL Bus & Coach bv from the Netherlands. The trade fair from 18 to 21 September 2018 is open for trade visitors only, the public days from 22 to 23 September 2018 will open outdoor display and track areas only. InnoTrans is organised by Messe Berlin. More details are available online: www.innotrans.com. Photo: Berlin Fair International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 57 International Transportation is a special edition of Internationales Verkehrswesen | vol. 70 Imprint Editorial board Prof. Dr. Kay W. Axhausen Prof. Dr. Hartmut Fricke Prof. Dr. Hans Dietrich Haasis Prof. Dr. Sebastian Kummer Prof. Dr. Barbara Lenz Prof. Knut Ringat Publishing house TRIALOG: PUBLISHERS Verlagsgesellschaft Eberhard Buhl | Christine Ziegler Schliffkopfstr. 22, D-72270 Baiersbronn Phone +49 7449 91386.36 office@trialog.de www.trialog.de Publishing Director Dipl.-Ing. Christine Ziegler VDI Phone +49 7449 91386.43 christine.ziegler@trialog.de Editorial office Managing Editor Phone +49 7449 91386.44 eberhard.buhl@trialog.de iv-redaktion@t-online.de Advertising Phone +49 7449 91386.46 Fax +49 7449 91386.37 anzeigen@trialog.de For advertisement prices, please see price list no. 55 of 01 Jan. 2018 Sales Phone +49 7449 91386.39 Fax +49 7449 91386.37 service@trialog.de Publishing intervals Quarterly, plus International Transportation Terms of subscription Subscriptions run for a minimum of 1 year and may be terminated at the end of any subscription period. To unsubscribe, submit a written notice at least six weeks before the period ends. The publishers shall not be liable in case of non-deliverability due to force majeure or any other cause beyond their control. Supplementary digital subscriptions available on request. Subscription rates Subscription Germany: 193 EUR/ year, incl. shipping, plus VAT Abroad: print for subscribers with VAT no.: 215 EUR/ year incl. shipping; w/ o VAT no.: 215 EUR/ year incl. shipping, plus VAT | digital 193 EUR/ year, for subscribers w/ o VAT no.: plus VAT Print subscribers will receive every issue in print format plus access to the archive (e-mail subscribers: e-paper only) . Single issue: 37 EUR plus VAT plus shipping Media partnership VDI Verein Deutscher Ingenieure e.V. - Fachbereich Verkehr und Umfeld Printing house Grafik und Druck GmbH, Munich Production Schmidt Media Design, Munich, schmidtmedia.com Cover Street in Vienna Photo: pixabay.de Copyright It is not permitted to copy or distribute any part of this publication, neither in print nor in digital form, except with the publisher’s prior written consent. The publisher accepts no liability for any unsolicited manuscripts. Trialog Publishers Verlagsgesellschaft Baiersbronn-Buhlbach ISSN 0020-9511 IMPRINT | EDITORIAL PANELS Editorial Board Editorial Advisory Board Matthias Krämer Director Mobility and Logistics, Federation of German Industries (Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie e.V./ BDI), Berlin (DE) Gerd Aberle Dr. rer. pol. Dr. h.c., Emeritus professor of Gießen University, and honorary member of the Editorial Advisory Board (DE) Ben Möbius Dr., Executive Director of the German Federation of Rail Industries (Verband der Bahnindustrie in Deutschland), Berlin (DE) Uwe Clausen Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing., Director of the Institute for Transport Logistics at Technical University (TU) Dortmund & Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and Logistics (IML), (DE) Florian Eck Dr., Deputy Managing Director of the German Transport Forum (Deutsches Verkehrsforum e.V./ DVF), Berlin (DE) Michael Engel Dr., Managing Director of the German Airline Association (Bundesverband der Deutschen Fluggesellschaften e. V./ BDF), Berlin (DE) Alexander Eisenkopf Prof. Dr. rer. pol., ZEPPELIN Chair of Economic & Transport Policy, Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen (DE) Tom Reinhold Dr.-Ing., Head of Planning, traffiQ, Frankfurt (DE) Ottmar Gast Dr., Chairman of the Executive Board of Hamburg-Süd KG, Hamburg (DE) Barbara Lenz Prof. Dr., Director of the Institute of Transport Research, German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V./ DLR), Berlin (DE) Knut Ringat Prof., Speaker of the Executive Board of the-Rhine-Main Regional Transport Association (Rhein-Main-Verkehrsverbund GmbH/ RMV), Hofheim am Taunus (DE) Erich Staake Dipl.-Kfm., CEO and President of Duisburger Hafen AG, Duisburg (DE) Wolfgang Stölzle Prof. Dr., Professor of Logistics Management, Research Institute for Logistics Management, University of St. Gallen (CH) Ute Jasper Dr. jur., lawyer, law firm of Heuking Kühn Lüer Wojtek, Düsseldorf (DE) Johannes Max-Theurer Executive Director, Plasser & Theurer, Linz (AT) Matthias von Randow Executive Director of the German Aviation Association (Bundesverband der Deutschen Luftverkehrswirtschaft/ BDL), Berlin (DE) Kay W. Axhausen Prof. Dr.-Ing., Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich (CH) Hartmut Fricke Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil., Chair of Air Transport Technology and Logistics, Technical University (TU) Dresden (DE) Hans-Dietrich Haasis Prof. Dr., Chair of Business Studies and Economics, Maritime Business and Logistics, University of Bremen (DE) Sebastian Kummer Prof. Dr., Head of the Institute for Transport and Logistics Management, Vienna University of Economics and Business (AT) Peer Witten Prof. Dr., Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG (HHLA), Hamburg, and Speaker of the Logistics Initiative Hamburg (DE) Oliver Wolff Executive Director of the Association of German Transport Companies (Verband Deutscher Verkehrsunternehmen/ VDV), Cologne (DE) Oliver Kraft Geschäftsführer, VoestAlpine BWG GmbH, Butzbach (DE) Martin Hauschild Chairman VDI Committee Traffic & Context; Head of Mobility Technologies, BMW Group, Munich (DE) Ralf Nagel CEO of the German Shipowners’ Association (Verband Deutscher Reeder/ VDR), Hamburg (DE) Detlev K. Suchanek Executive Partner, PMC Media House GmbH, Hamburg (DE) Detlef Zukunft Dr., Transport Program Department, German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V./ DLR), Cologne (DE) Jan Ninnemann Prof. Dr., Course head for Logistics Management, Department Maritime & Logistics, HSBA Hamburg School of Business Administration, Hamburg (DE) International Transportation (70) 1 | 2018 58 Dear Readers, with this current issue of International Transportation our authors once again provide insights into innovative solutions and business models, present new strategies and report on successful projects for transportation. They make clear, that today and in the near future the quickened urbanization has ready a wide range of very complex challenges in terms of mobility. To be honest - most of the topics such as daily traffic jam or noxious air pollution are long-known. In a certain manner the experts worldwide try to find a universal solution - the royal way. Automated driving, electric vehicles, or solutions for flexible (and below the line sustainable mobility services) are just some of the subjects discussed in this context. That much is for sure: By technological means the mobility landscape is changing at a breath-taking pace across the globe. But clever ideas and innovative approaches are not enough. Probably the most important task is to update and adjust laws and regulations so that these technologies can take effect. Both political will as well as goal-oriented strategies are needed to meet this matter. If you would like to share your own knowledge and experiences in one of the future issues, please contact us. You can find author’s guidelines as well as a submission form in the ‘Services’ menu on our website: www.international-transportation.com. Or simply send me an e-mail to eberhard.buhl@trialog.de - I look forward to hearing from you! Sincerely, Eberhard Buhl, Managing Editor 23-25 May 2018 Leipzig (DE) International Transport Forum - 2018 Summit Transport Safety and Security Organization: International Transport Forum bei der OECD Contact: +33 1 45241980, paula.dunne@oecd.org http: / / 2018.itf-oecd.org 06-07 June 2018 Venlo (NL) Cargo Innovation Conference Disruption in Logistics and Freight Organization: Jakajima b.v., Eindhoven (NL), info@jakajima.eu www.cargoinnovationconference.com 12-14 June 2018 Paris (FR) Transports Publics 2018 The European Mobility Exhibition Organization: GIE Objectif transport public (Groupement des Autorités Responsables de Trans-port, GART, & Union des Transports Publics et ferroviaires, UTP) Contact: IMF GmbH, +49 (0) 221 13 05 09 22, a.daian@imf-promosalons.de www.transportspublics-expo.com 19-20 June 2018 Cologne (DE) The Future of Transportation World Conference 2018 Organization: UKi Media & Events a division of UKIP Media & Events Ltd Contact: www.thefutureoftransportconference.com/ en/ contact-us.php www.thefutureoftransportconference.com 24-27 June 2018 Berlin (DE) World Parking Symposium (WPS XI) Organization: Canadian Parking Foundation Contact: AOR Manfred Wacker, Stuttgart University, manfred.wacker@isv.uni-stuttgart.de www.worldparkingsymposium.ca 27-28 June 2018 Berlin (DE) ConCarExpo International trade show and congress for automated driving Organization: Association of German Engineers (VDI) | Wissensforum; wissensforum@vdi.de Contact: info@concarexpo.com www.concarexpo.com 18-21 Sept 2018 Berlin (DE) InnoTrans 2018 Leading international trade fair for transport technology Organization: Messe Berlin www.innotrans.com 20-27 Sept 2018 Hannover (DE 67. IAA Commercial Vehicles 2018 International exibition with New Mobility World Logistics Organization: Verband der Automobilindustrie e. V. (VDA) www.iaa.de 06-07 Nov 2018 Hamburg (DE) 8th Aviation Forum Tomorrow‘s aerospace supply chain Organization: IPM GmbH, Hannover Contact: +49 (0) 511 473 147 90 www.aviationforumhamburg.com 06-08 Nov 2018 Rotterdam (NL) Intermodal Europe The Global Container and Transport Event Organization: informa exhibitions - IIR Exhibitions Ltd., London Contact: info@informaexhibitions.com www.intermodal-events.com CALENDAR OF EVENTS 23 May 2018 to 08 November 2018 For information on additional events go to www.international-transportation.com REMARK | EVENTS Meine/ Unsere Daten:  Herr  Frau  Firma/ ... Titel, Vorname, Name Firma/ ... Abteilung Straße + Nr. PLZ, Ort, Land Telefon Telefax E-Mail-Adresse Umsatzsteuer-ID-Nr. (sofern vorhanden) Ihr Bestellzeichen (sofern vorhanden)  Das Widerrufsrecht (s.rechts) habe ich zur Kenntnis genommen.  Die AGB als Vertragsbestandteil habe ich gelesen und akzeptiert. Sie können beim Verlag angefordert oder unter www.trialog-publishers.de/ agb_trialogpublishers.pdf heruntergeladen werden. WISSEN WAS MORGEN BEWEGT Schiene, Straße, Luft und Wasser, globale Verbindungen und urbane Mobilität: Viermal im Jahr bringt Internationales Verkehrswesen fundierte Experten-Beiträge zu Hintergründen, Entwicklungen und Perspektiven der gesamten Verkehrsbranche - verkehrsträgerübergreifend und zukunftsorientiert. Ergänzt werden die deutschen Ausgaben durch die englischsprachige Themen-Ausgabe International Transportation. Mehr dazu im Web unter www.internationales-verkehrswesen.de Internationales Verkehrswesen gehört seit 1949 zu den führenden europäischen Verkehrsfachzeitschriften. 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