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Strategies and solutions - the annual view 2020 Transforming Transport STRATEGIES Logistics - how to meet upcoming challenges BEST PRACTICE Transportation strategies put into-action PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS Can MaaS move transport decarbonization forward? SCIENCE & RESEARCH Innovative transport systems and mobility services International Transportation www.international-transportation.com Collection | October 2020 Volume 72 ALL YOU CAN READ Das Archiv der Zeitschrift Internationales Verkehrswesen mit ihren Vorgänger-Titeln reicht bis Ausgabe 1|1949 zurück. Sie haben ein Jahres-Abonnement? Dann steht Ihnen auch dieses Archiv zur Verfügung. Durchsuchen Sie Fach- und Wissenschaftsbeiträge ab Jahrgang 2000 nach Stichworten. Greifen Sie direkt auf die PDFs aller Ausgaben ab Jahrgang 2010 zu. Mehr darüber auf: www.internationales-verkehrswesen.de Trialog Publishers Verlagsgesellschaft | Baiersbronn | service@trialog.de ePaper-EAZ_IV_TranCit.indd 4 11.11.2018 18: 32: 23 International Transportation | Collection 2020 3 Sebastian Belz POINT OF VIEW Europe - Covid - Climate Change C hallenging times! One year ago the main topic in European news was Brexit, surrounded by little patches of Fridays for Future now and then. Of course, the self-proclaimed “best leader ever” of the U.S. had his regular stake in the tabloids, too, but the more decisive part of the discussion circled around classical themes, such as the global economy, world-wide energy and food supply or the (too) slow path towards a more sustainable planet. Transport sciences were among the latter all the time. Breaking news: Around New Year’s Eve some virus originating from the food markets of Central China entered the stage. Within weeks this deus ex machina (or more precise: ex natura) occupied all available attention world-wide. In a mixture of cluelessness, fear and honest concern, widespread lockdown measures were implemented around the globe, strongly affecting the freedom and autonomy of people even in Western-style democracies. Global aviation declined by about 95 %, border closures in the European Union made international rail travel literally impossible from one day to another and even car traffic fell to less than half its usual volume in a fortnight. Official reaction: Governments cut all cross-border ties for longdistance passengers as well as for commuters regardless of social and economic cost, with very few exemptions, even if they were not necessarily driven by actual interest in systematic epidemiological action. Logistics suffered equally, but the urge to reinstall at least basic supply chains enabled them to recover relatively smoothly. To some it was quite surprising, that global online retail enterprises, such as Amazon, acted in a very solid and sovereign way. From today´s point of view they may clearly be called winners of the pandemic. Interim conclusion: Now, at the end of the summer 2020, we are still in the midst of the pandemic. And we will probably stay there for a further while, at least until some vaccine is available for the majority of people. Nevertheless, today we know more about the virus than half a year earlier. We have a clearer view about what is a reasonable behaviour and where the risks of becoming infected are highest. During the vacation period people resumed taking the plane to southern destinations, travelling by car is again as popular as before the crisis and even some trains are now close to full occupation rates. And yes, there is more bike travel and more home working now, but whether this will become the ‘new normal’ remains to be seen. With the exemption of wearing face masks on public transport in most European countries, things appear to be close to “business as usual”. But is it really business as usual? What might be regarded as a relief for nature and climate goals in the short term has the dynamic to end up totally counter-productive in the long run. As long as some governments still proclaim that public transport should be used “only if absolutely necessary”, while at the same time encouraging people to fly to their favourite touristic destinations, they are doing a disservice to the future of our mobility system. Transport infrastructure must be regarded in long-term perspectives. Decisions are to be made for decades, if not a century. In this timescale, a global disease lasting for one or two years shouldn´t affect considered opinions so severely. To me it appears that some politicians have difficulties catching up with the speed of increasing knowledge about the pandemic. What sounded reasonable or at least possible in March and April failed to come to pass, and this needs to be addressed by official statements in all clarity and with the necessary courage. Comparing crises: Analysing the structure of the pandemic, there are some interesting similarities to climate change. Both entirely threaten the basics of the life we are used to (and like to) live. And both are immediately invisible, which is really scary. Furthermore, our knowledge about their operating principles is far from complete, consistent or fully correct in both cases. There is an ongoing need for flexibility, reversibility and openness in our approach towards actions. The main difference between the two is the timescale. Climate change develops slowly compared to Covid-19. The first needs actions now to get positive effects for our children and grandchildren in the coming decades, whereas the latter needs actions now, too, to save the lives of our parents and grandparents in the coming months. Learning lessons: for a short period of time, transport and mobility were affected by the pandemic in a totally disruptive way. “Avoiding - reducing - shifting” - the old triad of sustainable transport, became reality to a certain extent: pop-up bike lanes in conurbations around the globe, almost no flights anymore and an unopposed “stay at home” campaign that has had more effect on climate than any previous actions. Greta Thunberg could have continued demonstrating for ages: in the eyes of people the same measures they were rejecting with great conviction just weeks before became opportune in the light of the short-term pandemic threat. It is a dilemma to admit: pure facts are not crucial to get majorities. You have to tell stories to people that sound reasonable. If you are able to embed your scientific results into a “good plot”, if you emotionalise your findings towards popular messages, there is a chance for implementation. Like it or not: the current way of dealing with the pandemic is the blueprint for challenging climate change, too. Stay healthy and calm, Sebastian Belz Secretary General EPTS Foundation e.V. International Transportation | Collection 2020 4 BEST PRACTICE 23 New mobility concepts for rural areas Lessons learnt in the European cooperation project “Peripheral Access” Alexandra Beer 26 The Perpignan-Figueras high-speed line A great European project that arrived in the middle of a crisis and in an immature environment Petros Papaghiannakis STRATEGIES 6 Semi-trailer on rail in Germany The driver of a modal shift? Eugen Truschkin 9 Heading into “The New Normal” Potential development paths of international logistics networks in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic Frank Straube Benjamin Nitsche 14 Cooperation with Hanse Networks in the North and Baltic Sea Regions Security strategy for port hinterland traffic via data handling before cargo handling Thomas Decker Photo: Peter H./ pixabay Photo: LFP PAGE 14 PAGE 26 International Transportation POINT OF VIEW 3 Europe - Covid - Climate Change Sebastian Belz KNOWLEDGE AT A GLANCE Previously published issues of International Transportation June 2019: Best practice May 2018: Urban Mobility May 2017: Managing Public Transport May 2016: Smarter on the move Oct. 2015: Looking ahead May 2015: Urban transport international-transportation.com 17 A study on free-floating carsharing in Europe Hansjörg Fromm Patrick Jochem 20 The ATELIER project Citizen-driven Positive Energy Districts in Amsterdam, Bilbao and beyond Bettina Remmele International Transportation | Collection 2020 5 CONTENT Collection 2020 PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS SCIENCE & RESEARCH COLUMNS Photo: moovel Group Photo: Siemens Mobility PAGE 31 PAGE 36 70 Projects in a Nutshell Overview of selected mobility research projects 70 Zero-emission commercial flights within 15 years? 70 Graphite instead of gold: Thin layers for better hydrogen cars 71 Global rail market continues to grow 71 Green shipping: Hybrid propulsion at the highest safety level 72 Fly on holiday in view of climate change? 72 Clean fuel from sunlight, CO 2 and water 73 IMPRINT | EDITORIAL PANELS 74 REMARK | EVENTS 36 Innovative transport systems 15th European Friedrich-List- Prize - a random selection of this year’s submissions Adrian Gunter Markus Loidolt Ivan Cvitić Dávid Földes Kerényi Tamás Johannes Weber 54 Tackling innovation barriers An empirical investigation for sustainable transport services Konstantin Krauss 58 Implementation of autonomous vehicle onto roadways A step to a Theory of Automated Road Traffic Heinz Doerr Andreas Romstorfer 63 Environmental effects of the Covid-19 lockdown The example of an EU online convention Matthias Gather Claudia Hille 66 Development of mobility behaviour in tourism Evaluation of requirements in mobility behaviour of tourists in rural and inner-city regions Marcel Weber 31 Integrating demand-responsive transportation Bridging the gap between public transit and individual mobility in a Mobility-as-a-Service ecosystem Lukas Foljanty Mark-Philipp Wilhelms 34 Time for action The transport sector’s role in enhancing climate ambition Marion Vieweg Daniel Bongardt STRATEGIES Combined Transport International Transportation | Collection 2020 6 Semi-trailer on rail in Germany The driver of a modal shift? Modal shift, Semi-trailer, Combined transport Over the past ten years, rail has demonstrated a steady increase (from 17.7 % to 18.6 %) in the total transport performance in Germany. The continental Combined Transport (CT) market segment made a significant contribution to this. In 2017, around 40 % of the total rail transport performance was performed in the CT sector. In this article, the development of loading units in CT in the period 2008 to 2017 in Germany is presented. The importance of the craneable semi-trailer as a loading unit with the most dynamic growth is derived. The possible background for this development is discussed. Eugen Truschkin O ver the last 15 years road transportation has a stable and dominant position with approx. 75 % of the total share on road performance (in tkm) among further transport modes in Europe [1]. In the case of Germany, 71 % of the total road performance in 2018 - approximately 227 billion tkm was processed via semi-trailers [2]. Hence, semitrailers are considered to be a dominating loading unit in the continental transportation segment. Consistent with the EU-goals to shift more than 50 % freight from road to rail or waterborne transport for longer distances (>300 km) to 2030 [3] enhanced marketing activities from the providers of so called horizontal transshipment technologies were observed in the late 2000s [4]. The target group of the technologies present the non-cranable semi-trailers, which share was estimated to be around 95 % of the total amount of semi-trailers in 2013 [5]. Supported by these technologies, non-cranable semi-trailers are able to access the rail transport market. In parallel, cranable semitrailers (vertical transshipment via gantry cranes or reach-stackers) have demonstrated a constant increase in the combined transport in the recent years. The goal of this article is to derive the current picture in the continental combined transportation via semi-trailers in Germany in order to better understand the role of each type of the transshipment in today’s transportation and the reasons behind these developments. Trailer transshipment in the Rostock seaport Photo: Eugen Truschkin Combined Transport STRATEGIES International Transportation | Collection 2020 7 Overview and discussion of market developments Currently, the technologies for horizontal transshipment have not yet established themselves widely within the market. However, the positive dynamics can be observed by the market-leaders in this segment. The Leipzig-based CargoBeamer AG operates the “CargoBeamer Alpin” train on the route Kaldenkirchen/ Venlo (Netherlands) via Cologne (Germany) to Domodossola (Italy). The company has just recently received a financial subsidy of 7 million EUR for the transshipment terminal Calais in 2019. The transshipment terminal will enable the rail transport of semi-trailers via Calais from and to the British Isles [6]. The Lohr company with its Modalohr technology, possess four terminals today (terminals Aiton and Boulou in France, terminal Orbassano in Italy and terminal Bettemburg in Luxemburg); four more are under construction (one of them also in Calais addressing the same route as CargoBeamer) in Europe [7]. To get a better picture of the market diffusion of horizontal transshipment, an analysis of the statistics in the combined transportation is given below. In the case of Germany (see figure 1), following observations can be derived: • Increase of the rail share from 17.7 % in 2008 to 18.6 % in 2017 • The share of accompanied transport (ROLA) decreases • The share of combined transport on rail transport increases steadily from 28.6 % in 2008 to almost 40 % in 2017 • Increase of unaccompanied semi-trailers from 10.8 % to 31.2 % in the period from 2008 to 2017 As a result, an increasing interest to the non-accompanied transport of semi-trailers via rail is obvious. As pictured in figure 2 the driver for the increase of the share of non-accompanied semi-trailers on combined transport results to the major part from import, export and transit transports. This can be explained by higher competitiveness of combined transport against road transport on longer distances. Today, the non-accompanied transportation of semi-trailers in Germany is mostly realized by cranable trailers. The total amount of transported semi-trailers in Germany in combined transport in 2017 accounted to 941,000, whereof 10,837 (1.1 %) are non-cranable trailers, which were transported via CargoBeamer technology [12, 14]. One of the reasons for this development is the market consolidation in the road transport sector. According to the Federal Office for Goods Transport the number of transport companies in Germany in 2015 has decreased by 9.3 % in the period 2010- 2015 (4.625 companies, most of them with up to 9 employees, have closed their businesses). In the same period, the number of semi-trailers in ownership of transport companies with a total payload >24,000 kg has decreased by 4.6 % (from 206,627 to 197,019) [15, 16]). Hence, the structure of the transportation market in Germany is undergoing a slow change with an increasing number of larger companies. At the same time, the larger the company, the more attractive combined transport becomes [17]. Increasing efficiency of the combined transport in terms of its competitiveness both for price and service level compared to road transport in longer distances can be seen as another reason. In addition, an increasing awareness of how to organize the combined transport operations among forwarding companies should be mentioned. As a consequence, companies start to increase the share of cranable semi-trailers in their fleets. The decision to invest in a cranable semi-trailer enhances the mode choice flexibility by adding combined transportation in to the mode choice decision portfolio. Further reasons, which promote the attractiveness of combined transport are the increase of driver-shortage, lower maintenance costs for semi-trailers in combined transport compared to road transport, exemption of regulatory policies (e. g., night driving ban, mandatory rest hours for drivers), as well as the reduction of CO 2 emissions. Figure 1: Developments in continental combined transport (in tkm) in Germany 2008 to 2017 Destatis [8 to 13] Figure 2: Developments in continental non-accompanied combined transport (in tkm) in Germany 2008 to 2017 Destatis [8 to 13] STRATEGIES Combined Transport International Transportation | Collection 2020 8 Conclusion Summarizing the above, the following can be concluded. Overall, the desired modal shift in Europe from road to rail is currently happening at a rather slow pace. The major dynamics in the rail transport development in Europe come from the continental combined transport with an increase of 32.5 % in the period from 2005 to 2016 [1]. Hereby, the continental combined transport via cranable semi-trailers demonstrates the strongest increase among other loading units (container, swap-bodies, non-cranable semi-trailers, trucks). However, progress can also be observed in the segment of noncranable semi-trailer executed by horizontal transshipment technics, yet playing a minor role compared to conventional vertical transshipment of cranable semi-trailers. More companies seem to discover the benefits of an additional option in the transportation - combined transport via semitrailers. The market consolidation is one of the reasons - the larger the company, the easier its access to rail. Transport companies invest in cranable semi-trailers to benefit from the increasing mode choice flexibility and attractive economic, social and environmental conditions provided by the combined transport in longer distances. To accelerate the ongoing modal shift, fostering a strong rail system for Germany is the purpose of Deutsche Bahn. It is understood, unless we shift traffic largely to a strong rail network, we will not be able to achieve our climate targets. One of the goals of the strategy “Strong Rail” is to raise the market share of rail freight transport from 18 % to 25 % - the equivalent of 13 million fewer truck trips per year in Germany. The increase of competitiveness of the rail network is realized by a set of defined measures, among others, the modernization of rail infrastructure, construction and expansion of lines and nodes, technological innovation and digitalization of the network, better management of capacity. Against this background, further positive development in the modal shift of semi-trailers from road to rail in the next years can be expected. ■ REFERENCES [1] UIC (2019): 2018 Report on Combined Transport in Europe [2] Federal Motor Transport Authority (2018): Verkehr deutscher Lastkraftfahrzeuge (VD) Verkehrsaufkommen Jahr 2018 [3] European Commission (2011): White Paper on Transport. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg [4] Truschkin, E.; Elbert, R.: (2013): Horizontal transshipment technologies as enablers of combined transport: Impact of transport policies on the modal split. Transportation Research Part A 49 (2013), pp.-91-109 [5] Truschkin, E. (2013): Wirksamkeit von verkehrspolitischen Maßnahmen bei der Einführung von horizontalen Umschlagtechnologien. Verlag Dr. Kovac. Hamburg [6] CargoBeamer (2019a): 7m € funding from the EU for the CargoBeamer ´rail motorway´ terminal in Calais. https: / / www.cargobeamer.eu/ 7m-from-the-EU-for-the-CargoBeamer-rail-motorwayterminal-in-Calais-852891.html [7] Modalohr (2019): Terminals under construction. Projected terminals. https: / / lohr.fr/ lohr-railway-system/ the-lohr-system-terminals/ [8] Destatis (2009): Verkehr. Eisenbahnverkehr 2008 [9] Destatis (2011): Verkehr. Eisenbahnverkehr 2010 [10] Destatis (2014): Verkehr. Eisenbahnverkehr 2013 [11] Destatis (2016): Verkehr. Eisenbahnverkehr 2015 [12] Destatis (2018): Verkehr. Eisenbahnverkehr 2017 [13] Destatis (2019): Goods transport, Transport, performance. https: / / www.destatis.de/ EN/ Themes/ Economic-Sectors-Enterprises/ Transp o r t / G o o d s - T r a n s p o r t / T a b l e s / g o o d s t r a n s p o r t l r . html#fussnote-1-62396 [14] CargoBeamer (2019b): Major milestones within the corporate development. https: / / www.cargobeamer.eu/ 2019-06-03_History_ENpdf-852853.pdf [15] Federal Office for Goods Transport (2012): Struktur der Unternehmen des gewerblichen Güterkraftverkehrs und des Werkverkehrs. Band USTAT 17, November 2010. Bundesamt für Güterverkehr, Köln [16] Federal Office for Goods Transport (2016): Struktur der Unternehmen des gewerblichen Güterkraftverkehrs und des Werkverkehrs. Band USTAT 18, November 2015. Bundesamt für Güterverkehr, Köln [17] Truschkin, E.; Elbert, R.; Günther, A.: (2014): Is transport subcontracting a barrier to modal shift? Empirical evidence from Germany in the context of horizontal transshipment technologies. Business Research, 7, pp. 77-103 Eugen Truschkin, Dr. DB Engineering & Consulting GmbH, Logistics Consulting, Berlin eugen.e.truschkin@ deutschebahn.com Transit of a DB Cargo freight train with class 185 and freight of DB Schenker in multimodal transport through Gemünden Photo: Deutsche Bahn AG / Georg Wagner DB Schenker Transa semi-trailer loading Photo: Deutsche Bahn AG International Transportation | Collection 2020 9 Heading into “The New Normal” Potential development paths of international logistics networks in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic Coronavirus, Covid-19, International logistics networks, Risk, Volatility, Focus group The Coronavirus crisis is putting international logistics networks to the test and it is already clear that the crisis is relentlessly exposing problems that international logistics networks must change as a result of the crisis. This article aims to reveal future developments in international logistics networks and discuss potential development paths. On the basis of a structured discussion with 23 logistics managers and a follow-up survey among them, current challenges and possible solutions were identified and theses on potential developments of international logistics networks were evaluated. This revealed that digitalization and the automation of processes have top priority for efficient risk and volatility management. In addition, there are tendencies toward more localized, agile logistics networks, which, with the aim of greater resilience, may also generate higher costs than those seen before the crisis. Frank Straube, Benjamin Nitsche T he logistics world is changing. Most manufacturing companies have faced serious disruptions in their logistics networks over recent months and, even if most companies are back in operation, constantly changing dynamics and extreme volatility are “The New Normal.” What, at the beginning of 2020, appeared to be a regional problem affecting the supply side of most companies that were sourcing from China is now a global pandemic and almost every company is feeling the effects of this crisis in some way. Although most industries are being negatively affected, some will benefit from the situation. On the one hand, old and aging business models are in jeopardy; on the other hand, the crisis also provides huge opportunities for new ideas and business models. However you frame it, change is inevitable in most industries, and logistics networks are about to change accordingly. However, how they will change is highly uncertain. The only thing that is clear is that the crisis is also acting like a burning glass for logistics networks. Inefficient processes are being clearly revealed, as are networks that have been overoptimized to minimize costs, and now problems that were already Photo: Dimitri Houtteman/ Unsplash Covid-19 STRATEGIES STRATEGIES Covid-19 International Transportation | Collection 2020 10 known in many places before the crisis, but had not been clearly addressed, are more likely to become apparent. Even if the crisis can be overcome quickly, it is already clear that, for many companies, it has become an important trigger for changes in logistics, though most are still unsure how to react. To contribute to this discussion, the Competence Center for International Logistics Networks, funded by the Kuehne Foundation, at the Chair of Logistics at the Berlin University of Technology conducted an initial focus group workshop with industry experts at the end of May 2020. Further discussions are ongoing. The focus group consisted of logistics managers from multiple manufacturing industries (automotive, consumer goods, electronics, and others) as well as logistics service providers. Participants had an average professional working experience in logistics of 16 years and the majority held senior management positions in logistics (department manager or higher). To initiate structured discussions, each participant was asked to present the current challenges the international logistics network of his or her company is dealing with and how they are seeking to address those challenges in the short and long term. Based on this input, the authors of this articles synthesized the challenges and strategies presented using the logistics design areas strategy, network, processes, technology, and people to outline the status quo. In addition, to contribute to the discussion on future development paths of logistics networks after the crisis, the authors synthesized 20 theses on potential developments within the aforementioned logistics design areas based on the focus group discussion. Subsequently, those theses were assessed by the same group of experts through a postworkshop questionnaire. The status quo of challenges and strategies, as well as first indications on future development paths of international logistics networks, are outlined in the following discussion. Challenges and consequences for international logistics networks As stated previously, companies’ logistics networks are challenged by the crisis across multiple phases, including the strategy, network, process, technology, and people levels. Figure 1 summarizes the challenges identified through the focus group discussions. From a strategic point of view, logistics managers feel a need for change on various levels. Current sourcing strategies, as well as past developments toward costoptimized logistics networks, are currently being discussed more critically than ever before. However, the current uncertainty about future developments is a major hindrance to managers, which is why there is a danger that they will focus on firefighting to tackle acute sub-problems to ensure security of supply and will postpone strategically important decisions. There is a risk that even long-planned strategic initiatives and investments may be withdrawn in the course of massive cost-saving initiatives. On a network-level, experts reported that disruptions and high volatility have to be considered as “The New Normal” and current networks are, in general, unable to meet the flexibility requirements of such a crisis. To react promptly, real-time transparency on locations of goods, available capacities, and so on, throughout the entire logistics network, are necessary, but often cannot be ensured. This problem existed long before the Coronavirus crisis, but has now becomes more prominent. In addition, the global transport market is prone to a new type of volatility. Air freight is experiencing strong demand but, owing to limited (passenger) flights, this theoretical demand cannot be covered, and the total freight volume is much lower compared with last year. At the same time, sea freight volumes have decreased and Europe’s road transportation market is expecting a reduction of at least 4.8 % and, in a worst-case scenario, up to 17 % [1]. On a process level, restructuring of operational, labor-intense processes to comply with hygiene standards was one of the major priorities at the beginning of the crisis; most • Globalization and sourcing strategies (low-cost countries) have to be reconsidered • Danger of withdrawal of long-term logistics initiatives (e.g. sustainability and CSR initiatives) • Restructuring of some business model needed (some are more prone to crises than others) • High uncertainty on future developments dampens the ability to make strategic decisions timely • Logistics networks not able to meet flexibility requirements of crisis (e.g. due to off shoring) • Network disruptions and volatility are “The New Normal” • Real-time data transparency would be necessary but is not available (e.g. locations, available capacities) • Increasing transport lead times globally and decreased supply from hot zone countries (e.g. Italy, Spain, China) • Demand peak in air freight but limited capacities (due to limited passenger flights) • Demand increase for rail related transport between China and Europe possible • Demand decrease for traditional transport modes (road and sea freight) • E-commerce structures are not built for current boom but delivery has to be secured • Increased inventory stocks lead to the risk of a warehouse collapses Strategy • Labor-intensive processes often take longer and must be reconsidered due to hygiene standards • Process errors become more obvious (need for process standardization and automation) • Collapse in demand leads to low capacity utilization for most manufacturers • Demand increase in certain industries cannot be covered by current processes • Predictive systems reach their limits (demand planning, ETA predictions etc.) • IT-infrastructure (national, company-level and network-level) not build for new requirements (i.e. boom in home office) • Digitalization on all phases become inevitable Challenges & Consequences • Staff shortage in some industries (e.g. stationary and online retail) but excess staff in most industries • Protection of employees from getting infected • Fear of loss of employment can inhibit performance of employees Network Process Technology People Figure 1: Coronarelated challenges and consequences for international logistics networks Covid-19 STRATEGIES International Transportation | Collection 2020 11 companies adapted to the situation quickly, although a reduction in process efficiency has been reported. Nevertheless, especially in reacting as quickly as possible to constantly changing network requirements, the dependence on people’s actions quickly became obvious. In order to increase the speed of reaction, reduce dependency on people, and thus be able to establish security of supply more quickly, participants often stressed the need for process automation as one of the core future challenges. From a technological point of view, the crisis stressed once again that there is an urgent need for digitalization of logistics networks. This digital transformation has often been identified as one of the major challenges for future logistics managers [2,- 3], but the core problems that occur on the pathway of digitalization seem to remain the same in the wake of the crisis. IT infrastructure within companies, and also across companies on an international level, has reached its limits. However, even predictive algorithms that were previously considered intelligent must be adapted to match the new environmental conditions in a new age of volatility. Regardless of the decisions that have to be made at different levels, there are always people who have to deal with the changed situation. In this area in particular, the crisis has already shown that a stronger focus on employees and their needs is necessary. In an age of increasing work from home, growing process automation, and declining sales in many industries, social issues are increasingly coming to the fore; issues that are quickly forgotten in times of economic upswing. Keeping employee satisfaction high in these difficult times is challenging, but necessary, in order not to lose performance in the long term. Current strategies dealing with the Coronavirus crisis To tackle the challenges arising from the pandemic, companies reacted very fast in adjusting their processes and networks to the current needs. Figure 2 outlines the shortand long-term strategies implemented by participants of the expert panel. In the short term, companies participating in the discussions did very well in setting up cross-functional crisis teams that met on a daily basis with master planners and constantly evaluated the situation, implemented contingency plans, and reevaluated and adjusted forecasts more often. Timely reactions were key to success and, while fighting for backup supply and transport capacity (especially air freight capacity), most companies switched from pure costthinking to availability-thinking to ensure security of supply. While doing so, some participants implemented supplier risk towers in the short term by using automated supplier surveys that provided them with up-to-date criticality scores for their supplier portfolios, thereby enabling them to manage the crisis more efficiently. However, such a crisis can increase the possibility of overreacting to signals and overriding network partners. Participants mutually agreed that trust in their network partners and joint collaboration with their logistics service providers play vital roles in managing crises in general. As good as companies have been at adapting to the new circumstances in the short term, they are currently finding it difficult to adopt long-term strategies and make decisions today for the long-term design of their international logistics networks. This is, of course, also due to the fact that future developments are highly uncertain. However, some developments can no longer be denied today, and companies will be forced to think about what level of structural flexibility should be achieved in their logistics networks. This includes decisions on offshoring rates in low-cost countries, or whether there should be a long-term attempt to relocalize value creation toward highly automated suppliers in industrialized countries. In addition, there is already evidence of an increased drive towards digitalization and automation, which were considered important previously but have • Decide on level of flexibility in logistics needed (trends towards more supplier and carrier alternatives) • Corporate decision on off shoring and nearshoring rates • Create synergies in strategic initiatives (e.g. combine network redesign with sustainability initiatives) • Decide on the “human factor” in decision making and level of automation Strategy Short-term Mid & Long-term • Enable structural flexibility through multi sourcing (materials & transport capacities)  trend towards more decentralized network structures • Reduce network complexity • Increased outsourcing of logistics activities (potentials for LSP) • Facilitation of nearshoring if possible • Turning away from stock-less JIT supply approaches possible Network • Have trust in network partners, trouble-shooting can make it worse • Fight for backup supply and transport capacities • Increase in safety stock levels if supply is possible • Supplier Risk Tower (up to date supplier assessment with vulnerability scores) with automated supplier survey • Short-term switch from cost-thinking to availabilitythinking (taking air freight over other modes of transport) • Risk mitigation jointly with 3PL • Establishment of logistics crisis plans and processes for the future Process • Daily cross-functional crisis team meetings and calls with master planners to develop and implement contingency plans • Adjustment of workflows / digitalization of processes • Increased frequency of forecasting and demand planning intervals • Reduced lot sizes • Defining a catalogue of measures for a safe restart of production and logistics • Roll-out of automation approaches to support monitoring and logistics planning (e.g. through multi agent systems) • Development of early alert systems following AI approaches Technology • Learn from crisis data to improve forecasting algorithms • interdisciplinary training in companies in order to broaden the areas of application of employees • Think about home office as a long-term alternative People • Enable home office opportunities • Short-time work & reinvented shift-systems • Lateral cooperation to increase employee utilization (e.g. Aldi/ McDonalds example) Figure 2: Short and midor long-term strategies dealing with the Coronavirus crisis STRATEGIES Covid-19 International Transportation | Collection 2020 12 become more pressing in the wake of the crisis. To contribute to these decisions, the authors drew up theses on future developments in international logistics networks in the course of the crisis on the basis of the discussions held; these were subsequently evaluated by the expert panel. Future development paths of international logistics networks Following the discussions with logistics managers, 20 theses on potential future developments of international logistics networks were formulated and assessed by the same group of experts through a questionnaire. Figure 3 presents excerpts from the most strongly agreed theses. It can be observed that the need for digitalization of logistics networks will be pushed because of the Coronavirus pandemic. This will include, in particular, the need for process automation in order to gain partial independence from personnel; however, increasing speed of reaction to a constantly changing environment has also been rated as a top trend that will be further pushed by the crisis. In addition, other technological advancements, such as intelligent ETA predictions, are seen as major success factor of future logistics networks. As stated with regard to current challenges, it has been confirmed that problems with digitalizing international logistics networks will remain the same (e.g., data access and accuracy) and could be even harder to solve. However, technological solutions are available on the market that could be able to tackle challenges arising from the crisis, although companies are struggling to achieve the appropriate task-technology fit. Moreover, the role of logistics within manufacturing companies seems to have been strengthened owing to the crisis which can be seen as a positive development from the participants’ point of view. However, although the role of logistics is strengthened, most companies struggle to determine the future role and goals of logistics. Managers stressed that it must be decided at an early stage whether, based on the lessons of the crisis, international logistics networks should plan to become more resilient and agile, or whether they should position themselves as efficient and cost-optimal, but less reactive. Without a decision on future goal parameters, adjustments of logistics networks are not possible. Nevertheless, based on the discussions and theses assessments, a slight tendency toward more agile and resilient networks, that are allowed to cost more, can be observed; this is also in line with other expert-based studies in the field of logistics [4]. Most participants are currently evaluating localization/ nearshoring opportunities or, at least, dual/ multisourcing options. A move away from singlesourcing models is likely, although the future is still highly uncertain at that stage. Nevertheless, it should also be mentioned that there are currently no signs that the megatrend of globalization will be completely reversed in the coming years because of the crisis. As the number of experts participating in this questionnaire is relatively low, this has to be understood as a first indi- ADDITIONAL WEBSITE LINKS The research results of the Competence Center for International Logistics Networks on this and other topics related to international logistics networks can be found online in the freely accessible logistics planning tool TUB Logistics Navigator (https: / / navigator. logistik.tu-berlin.de/ ). Additional information about the Coronavirus crisis and its effects on logistics can be found on the website of the Covid-19 expert network of Turku University (https: / / sites.utu. fi/ covid-supply-chains/ visiting-experts/ ), initiated by Prof. Lauri Ojala, where new articles are regularly published in the field of logistics by, among others, the Chair of Logistics of the TU Berlin. 1=Totally disagree | 4=indifferent | 7=totally agree (value that appears most often) The need for automation of logistics processes becomes inevitable (partial independence from personnel). Corporate role of logistics will be strengthened throughout the crisis. The corona crisis pushes digitalization efforts but core problems remain the same and will be even harder to solve (e.g. access to accurate, realtime and on-demand data through the network). Digital workspaces and tools can be productive but will not replace faceto-face interactions. Intelligent ETA predictions in times of crisis will become major success factors to enable timely responses. Many technological solutions are already in the market but processtechnology-fit will remain challenging. Without corporate decision on prioritization of logistics goals (e.g. time or cost), process adjustments are not possible. Crisis management regarding personnel will be setup. Without transparency on network structures (incl. 3rd and 4th tier) and current state of suppliers and customers, crisis management will not be possible in the future. Future supply networks will be designed for more resilience instead of core efficiency focus. There will be a rethink away from pure cost thinking towards a holistic approach to sustainability. Figure 3: Extract of most strongly agreed theses on future developments of international logistics networks after the Corona pandemic Covid-19 STRATEGIES International Transportation | Collection 2020 13 cation of potential future developments; more in-depth investigations are necessary to draw more reliable conclusions from it. Summary of fields of action and outlook From our investigations into current developments in international logistics networks because of the Coronavirus crisis, four main field of action are proposed that manufacturers should focus on to prepare their logistics networks appropriately. These are: (1) digitalization and automation, (2) risk and volatility management, (3) visibility, and (4) sustainability. Digitalization and automation are hot topics in the wake of the crisis and need to be tackled now. To react as fast as possible in comparable situations in the future, companies need to think about ways to automate important decision-making processes to gain speed of reaction and partial independence from personnel. Pathways of digitalization in logistics have been investigated in the past [2], but it is possible that these development paths will be completely redesigned in the course of the crisis and that developments may gain even more momentum. In conjunction with that, risk and volatility management needs to reconsidered. This includes, on the one hand, logistics network redesign and a potential shift to more localized and resilient logistics networks, and, on the other hand, target-oriented use of already existing tools and, if necessary, development of new ones to facilitate fast processes for timely reactions. For example, to manage volatility efficiently, previous research developed an approach that enables manufacturers to perform a case-based evaluation of the current state of volatility in a logistics network [5]. Those approaches are necessary as managing volatility is a complex task that requires crossfunctional management approaches [6]. Also relating to managing risks and maintaining reactiveness, machine learning approaches to enable smart ETA predictions in intermodal transport chains have been developed recently, but need to be challenged with respect to new environments [7, 8]. Achieving and maintaining upto-date visibility of increasingly complex network structures, even over several tiers of the logistics network, while ensuring data accuracy and availability, is certainly one of the basic requirements in managing risks and volatility in a timely fashion. Although the crisis has given rise to the risk that longterm strategic sustainability initiatives will be withdrawn under strong cost pressure, the crisis actually offers an equivalent opportunity to implement a holistic approach to sustainability that also gives greater weight to employee satisfaction and other social factors and to move away from a purely short-term cost perspective. ■ REFERENCES [1] Transport Intelligence (2020): European Road Freight Market Sizing 2020: Covid-19 Impact Analysis, p. 7 [2] Straube (Ed.); Junge, A.L.; Verhoeven, P.; Reipert, J. and Mansfeld, M. (2019): Pathway of digital transformation in logistics: best practice concepts and future developments. available at DOI: 10.14279/ DEPOSITONCE-8502 [3] Kersten, W.; Seiter, M.; von See, B.; Hackius, N. and Maurer, T. (2017): Trends and Strategies in Logistics and Supply Chain Management: Digital Transformation Opportunities. DVV Media Group GmbH, Hamburg, available at: http: / / logistiktrends.bvl.de/ en/ system/ files/ t16/ 2017/ Trends%20and%20Strategies%20in%20Logistics%20 and%20Supply%20Chain%20Management%20%E2%80%93%20 Digital%20Transformation%20Opportunities%20Kersten%20 von%20See%20Hackius%20Maurer.pdf [4] Kille, C. (2020): Die Wirkung der Corona-Krise auf den Wirtschaftsbereich Logistik aus Sicht der Logistikweisen. BVL-Blog, 20 May, available at: www.bvl.de/ blog/ wirkung-corona-krise-logistiksicht-der-logistikweisen [5] Nitsche, B. (2019): Development of an Assessment Tool to Control Supply Chain Volatility. Vol. 40, Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin, Berlin, available at DOI: 10.14279/ depositonce-7940 [6] Nitsche, B. and Straube, F. (2020): Efficiently managing supply chain volatility - a management framework for the manufacturing industry. Procedia Manufacturing, Vol. 43, pp. 320-327 [7] Straube, F.; Weinke, M. and Poschmann, P. (2020): Hohes Potenzial für lernende Systeme in logistischen Entscheidungsprozessen. Logistik Für Unternehmen, available at: www.ingenieur.de/ fachmedien/ logistikfuerunternehmen/ produktionslogistik/ hohespotenzial-fuer-lernende-systeme-in-logistischen-entscheidungsprozessen/ [8] Weinke, M.; Poschmann, P. and Straube, F. (2018): Künstliche Intelligenz in Logistiknetzwerken. Verbesserung der Zuverlässigkeit maritimer Transportketten durch akteursübergreifende ETA-Prognosen. Internationales Verkehrswesen, Vol. 70 No. 4, pp. 71-75 Frank Straube, Prof. Dr. Head of Chair of Logistics, Technische Universität Berlin straube@logistik.tu-berlin.de Benjamin Nitsche, Dr. Project Team, Chair of Logistics, Technische Universität Berlin nitsche@logistik.tu-berlin.de In collaboration with Supported by 2020 Guest of honour Organised by Ihr Kontakt in Deutschland: Frau Anaïs Daian — E-Mail: a.daian@imf-promosalons.de — Tel.: +49 221 13 05 09 22 Official Partner The business event for Europe’s mobility stakeholders 2020 GUEST OF HONOUR: HAMBURG International Transportation | Collection 2020 14 Cooperation with Hanse Networks in the North and Baltic Sea Regions Security strategy for port hinterland traffic via data handling before cargo handling Logistic cooperation, Hanse city, Port hinterland traffic, Nordic Baltic Research Alliance, Hanse Institut für Logistik & Handelsmanagement, Blockchain Internationalization and cooperation between the North and Baltic Sea Regions and Central Europe mean safeguarding them at the same time. Synchromodal logistics cooperations which are vulnerable to exogenous shocks can be stabilized by established Hanse alliances. By means of blockchain-supported databases data handling before cargo handling succeeds. Trading, transport and securing activities, consequently complete value chains, turn to get more efficient and safe by „decentralized centralization“. Thomas Decker T he “Blue Banana”, a special class of Euro-region with roughly 111 million denizens, is an agglomeration, whose actors are already able to cooperate with each other to a high degree, solely on the grounds of their Euro-centred position (figure 1). This agglomeration disposes of a disproportionate number of central institutions for economy, know-how, capital, settlements, traffic and infrastructure, including the Rhenish district as well as the Rhine as a central axis. Cooperation schemes are therefore manifold. In contrast, the area towards Northand Northeast Europe with about 20 million inhabitants still offers frequent opportunities for development. The increasing expansion of infrastructure and a rising demand for specifically logistics-related services require new alliances that accompany these developments. In particular, the conjunction of Central European transport and traffic sectors with those of the Scandinavian and Baltic states, continues to show a gap that needs to be bridged (figure 2). Mounting terminating, originating and transit traffic across all modes of transport lead to more condensed seaport hinterland traffic in the North and Baltic Sea region, Port of Helsinki Photo: Peter H./ pixabay STRATEGIES Logistics Logistics STRATEGIES International Transportation | Collection 2020 15 and the Baltic Sea is meanwhile considered an EU inland sea [1]. In addition, growing insecurities of international trade routes and communication channels (logistics hub of the PR of China on Iceland, 5G/ Huawei etc.) and concomitant tendencies for renationalization (Brexit, customs barriers etc.) jeopardise functioning exchanges of goods and information. This is why these developments suggest strengthening the group of the “European Union” by supplementary networks in the private sector as well as on macroeconomic and transnational levels. Internationalization of synchromodal logistics cooperations in the North and Baltic Sea Regions by means of Hanse Networks The subsequent approaches to a stronger linkage of the North and Baltic Sea area with Central Europe are currently being developed: • Integration of private and parastatal cooperations in the field of traffic logistics, with the aim of a more progressive synchromodalization, for example by LogCoop GmbH / Düsseldorf, a strongly growing cooperation of more than 200 members to date, which predominantly comprises medium-sized freight carriers. • Supplement to political institutions via strengthening of historically evolved trade cooperations such as the partially established and acknowledged Hanse networks, for which awareness has been continuously raised. • Support of the mentioned actors by evidence-based research alliances, e.g. by “The Nordic Baltic Hanseatic League 2.0”, a logistics alliance of the Hanse Institute of Logistics & Trade Management at RFH University of Applied Sciences / Cologne, that was initiated in 2019. Internationalization of synchromodal logistics cooperations in the North and Baltic Sea Regions Freight volumes are also on the rise in the North and Baltic Sea area, across all modes of transport. Although traffic infrastructures in this region of Europe have yet to reach their limits, a development similar to the one of the catchment area of the “Blue Banana” is quite foreseeable [2]. Existing transport chains are therefore to be enhanced in terms of networking, and they should be devised more flexibly. For this to happen, prerequisites are novel software and database structures that enable all participants in the system to equally access any information, devoid of discrimination. To this end, new cooperation models are called for in the transportation industry, potentially demanding even an open communication policy of price among the transport service providers, if need be. The “heyday” of tied freight tariffs might well be history for more than a quarter of a century, and the price pressure is persistently high. Transport cooperations, however, promise a higher turnaround, as their cooperatives could actually manage to pass along necessarily higher freight prices to forwarders, shippers and end-consumers. Also, there is a certain amount of unvaried resentment within the transport chains, expressed by and amongst the participating parties, sometimes understandably so. The problem of cherry-picking within the supply chains is well known to all freighters; its containment an unspoken goal when competing for profitable tours. The stemming might work, applying cooperation models on the basis of block chain-tied and nondiscriminatory data bases, for the benefit of all cooperatives. Respective examples have been noted, e.g. in the field of agricultural goods and nutrient logistics, where parastatal chambers of agriculture partly codetermine the logistics routes [3]. Cooperations of that ilk require an independent and neutral system head as, for example LogCoop GmbH / Düsseldorf, who are already offering these services on behalf of their members. London Amsterdam Rotterdam Paris Frankfurt/ M. Stuttgart Düsseldorf Zürich Mailand Genua Madrid Barcelona Marseille Rom München Wien Budapest Hamburg Bremen Leipzig Berlin Warschau Prag Kopenhagen Stockholm Riga Helsinki Figure 1: The „Blue Banana“ (concept developped by Roger Brunet 1989) is a discontinuous corridor of urbanisation spreading over Western and Central Europe. Own work Figure 2: The conjunction of Central European transport and traffic sectors with those of the Scandinavian and Baltic states lead to more condensed seaport hinterland traffic in the North and Baltic Sea region, and the Baltic Sea is meanwhile considered an EU inland sea [1]. Illustration: C. Ziegler / Trialog Publishers STRATEGIES Logistics International Transportation | Collection 2020 16 In any case, a non-discriminatory data base means that all available data - and, above all, all the prices - are on hand for each and every member of the system. In this respect, it makes no difference whether the member of the system is a carter, a rail or barge operator, or even a freighter. All system members will communicate openly concerning their operational transactions, and they will exchange freights according to their abilities. Each member will receive adequate, tariff-oriented remuneration for their services. International and regional Hanse networks by example of Neusser Hanse For approximately three decades, the number of groups with an affinity for the Hanse has been growing, e.g. the so-called Hanse League of Towns, the Hanse Parliament or various other Hanse associations, although these often merely preserve the historical heritage of the Hanse. For instance, the city of Neuss has been in possession of the Hanse privilege, conferred by Emperor Friedrich III, since 1475. Trade between Neuss and the Netherlands instantly flourished. Neuss had trade relations reaching as far as Scandinavia and into the Baltic Sea area. Today, the Neuss-Düsseldorf ports with a turnaround of commodities of ca. 16 million tonnes constitute Germany‘s third-largest inland port. In order to continue to use and expand the advantages inherent in these Hanse networks - so steeped in tradition - in future, it is however indispensable to enlarge them by applied academic research networks and, in due course, by project-specific platforms linking Germany with the Scandinavian countries of the North and Baltic Sea area. Relevant projects have shown that such Hanse networks may generate positive displacement effects in traffic, if only within a national or regional framework, for the time being [4]. Hanse Institute of Logistics & Trade Management at RFH University of Applied Sciences, Cologne The two gaps discussed are going to be reduced by the following logistics alliance, already initiated: The Nordic Baltic Hanseatic League 2.0: Alliance for Sustainable Logistics & Trade Solutions. Its research focus is the digitalization, greening and protection of the international trade routes and networks of all the neighbouring states in the North and Baltic Sea area, with the aim of linking them tighter to the Central European territory. Relevant research partners are, e.g.: 1. Riga City and Riga Technical University (RTU) 2. City of Gdansk and Gdansk Technical University (GUT) 3. City of Gdansk and Gdansk University 4. City of Bergen and Western Norway University of Applied Sciences (HiB) 5. Hafnarfjördur Town and University of Iceland 6. City of Turku and Turku AMK University of Applied Sciences 7. City of Kalmar and Linnaeus University 8. City of Venlo and Fontys Hogeschool Techniek en Logistiek Conclusion Internationalization and cooperation between the North and Baltic Sea Area and Central Europe also means to protect these same. Synchromodal logistics cooperations are, however, prone to exogenous shocks. Entrenched Hanse groups may counteract these by non-discriminatory block chaindata bases and novel research alliances such as the “Nordic Baltic Hanseatic League 2.0”. To this extent, trade, traffic and security, or protection, are put on “one level lower” - from the current globalized embedding. This novel “decentralised networking” proffers its partners beyond the EU the chance to implement data handling before cargo handling. The IT-savvy Baltic states of the North and Baltic Sea region offer ideal preconditions for this: Consequently, a promising perspective to render traffic control and value more decentralized, and thus safer, again. ■ REFERENCES [1] Bund für Umwelt und Naturschutz Deutschland e.V. (2007): Entwicklung des Seetransportes im Baltischen Raum, 2007 (https: / / www.bund.net/ fileadmin/ user_upload_bund/ publikationen/ mobilitaet/ mobilitaet_seetransporte_baltischer_raum.pdf; 20.01.2020) [2] Buss, Klaus-Peter (2018): Branchenanalyse Hafenwirtschaft - Entwicklungslinien des Hafenwettbewerbs und Herausforderungen der öffentlichen Akteure, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, 2018 (https: / / www.boeckler.de/ pdf/ p_study_hbs_402.pdf; 20.01.2020) [3] Decker, T. (2014): Transport von Agrogütern mit Binnenschiffen zur Versorgung von Biomassekraftwerken, Ergebnisbericht zum EURE- GIO-Forschungsprojekt HARRM Neusser Schriften, 25 S., 1. Jg., (1) 2014 [4] Decker, T./ Kostosz, R. (2016): Untersuchung der Seehafenhinterlandanbindungen entlang einer West-Ost-Schiene zwischen Nordrhein-Westfalen und Sachsen-Anhalt / Brandenburg / Berlin, 20 S., Neusser Schriften, 3. Jg., (1) 2016 Thomas Decker, Prof. Dr. Head of Hanse Institut für Logistik & Handelsmanagement, Professur für Transport- und Verkehrslogistik, Rheinische Fachhochschule Köln gGmbH, Standort Neuss thomas.decker@rfh-neuss.eu eMove360° Hybrid 2020 Conference & exhibition for the electric & autonomous mobility industry - 3 days you shouldn‘t miss Europe 20 - 22 October 2020 - Virtual & in real at the Kohlebunker, MOTORWORLD, Munich www.emove360.com Carsharing STRATEGIES International Transportation | Collection 2020 17 A study on free-floating carsharing in Europe Carsharing, Private vehicle holding, Modal shift How many carsharing users sell their vehicle, how many users suppressed a vehicle purchase? This article outlines the impacts of car2go and DriveNow on modal shift, vehicle owner-ship, vehicle kilometers travelled, and CO 2 emissions in 11 European cities. Hansjörg Fromm, Patrick Jochem C arsharing is an important segment of the sharing economy. The sharing economy strives for more efficient use of resources with positive economic, social, and environmental impacts [1]. In a new culture of nonownership, people increasingly prefer temporary access to resources over permanent ownership of resources. In Europe, the number of carsharing users has grown from 200,000 in 2006 to 6.76 million in 2018 [2] and is expected to increase to 15.6 million through to 2020 [3]. Free-floating carsharing, i. e. carsharing that allows pick-up and return of a car anywhere within a specified area in a city, has been on the market for more than 10 years. It is mainly provided by automotive and rental car companies. After a decade of operation and user experience, an evaluation seems appropriate. Car2Go and DriveNow, who merged into Share Now in 2019, are the largest carsharing operators in the world. They are serving over 3 million users, even if they closed their North American operations in late 2019. Share Now commissioned a study to identify the impact of carsharing on vehicle holdings, modal shift, vehicle kilometers traveled, and greenhouse gas emissions. The study was conducted in 2018 (Car2go) and 2019 (DriveNow). It is based on a survey among car2go and DriveNow customers, now customers of Share Now, in 11 European cities. The complete report can be found on our KIT website [4]. A previous study was performed by the University of California, Berkeley, for 5 North American cities in 2016 [5]. Over 10,000 carsharing users regularly using the service participated in the European online survey. We ensured representativeness of the respondents [4]. In the survey, participants were asked detailed questions on how the availability of car2go or DriveNow changed their travel behavior and vehicle ownership. Besides questions regarding the personal demographics of the participants (gender, age, income, education level), a group of questions centered around their change in travel behavior (e. g. trips overall, carpooling) and mode choice (e.g. use of taxis and public transportation). Another group of questions concerned the change in vehicle holdings. Impacts on vehicle holdings To study the impact on private vehicle holdings, participants were asked to specify how many and which cars they had owned before and after subscribing to the carsharing services and if they had sold or acquired cars within this time period. They were asked if they had attributed the sale or acquisition entirely or partially to the services provided by car2go or DriveNow. These answers allow us to determine the absolute number of sold vehicles and the percentage of participants who sold a vehicle. The number of acquired cars that the participants attributed to the carsharing service is negligible. There is a significant other effect of the availability of carsharing: people forego or postpone the acquisition of a car which they otherwise would have purchased. In order to estimate the number of suppressed vehicle purchases, we asked the hypothetical question “Would you acquire a car if car2go or DriveNow disappeared from your region? ”. If the answer is “yes” and this is not simply the replacement of a previously sold car, then we count this as a suppression of a vehicle. Other than the response concerning a vehicle sale, the response concerning vehicle suppression is not verifiable. Nevertheless, we handle the respondents’ information on suppressed vehicles in the same way as we handle the information on sold vehicles although the latter is more reliable. Figure 1: Percentage of participants who sold a vehicle and percentage of participants who suppressed a vehicle purchase STRATEGIES Carsharing International Transportation | Collection 2020 18 Figure 1 presents, for each individual city, the percentage of participants who sold a vehicle and the percentage of participants who suppressed a vehicle purchase. Assuming sample representativeness, these percentages can be applied to the overall population of regular car2go and DriveNow users. This gives us an estimate of the total numbers of sold and suppressed vehicles in each city. Table 1 shows the estimates of sold and suppressed vehicles in absolute numbers and on a per-carsharing-vehicle basis. According to our study, between 3.6 % and 16.1 % of the regular carsharing users in the individual cities claimed to have sold a vehicle due to the carsharing service. Between 13.3 % and 40.7 % claimed to have suppressed the purchase of a vehicle. This would amount to 18,948 vehicles sold and 62,900 vehicles suppressed across all cities. Berlin and Hamburg stand out with 4,616 resp. 3,100 vehicles sold and 11,834 resp. 11,020 vehicles suppressed. Per carsharing vehicle, between 2.1 and 5.3 vehicles have been sold in the individual cities and between 7.8 and 18.6 vehicles have been suppressed. We asked the participants for the reasons why they sold a car. For most participants, one reason was to save costs by getting rid of a car. In Berlin, Vienna, Hamburg, and Helsinki, many participants stated that good public transportation infrastructure was important for their decision. In these cities, a comparably high percentage of sold vehicles can be observed. Other reasons indicated by car2go and DriveNow users are: carsharing sufficiently fulfills their mobility needs, carsharing addresses the scarcity of parking space within the cities, and carsharing contributes to environmental protection. From a demographic point of view, candidates for selling their car or not purchasing a car are especially young people with a relatively high educational background and people who live in small households. This confirms insights from previous studies [6]. Impacts on modal shift Carsharing has a considerable impact on the participants’ choice of other transportation modes. Participants were asked to what extent they had changed their use of urban rail, bus, taxi, intercity rail, bicycles, and motorcycles, and whether they had changed their walking habits. There is a general trend that carsharing users reduce the use of taxis and - to a lower extent - the use of urban rail and busses. Only a few participants report that they have increased the use of public transportation. This means that some participants complement the use of carsharing with other transportation modes, while other participants substitute other transportation modes by carsharing. Table 2 shows the respective numbers exemplarily for Berlin on the left. The results for other cities show noticeable differences in magnitude, even if the general trends are largely the same [4]. This behavioral change is certainly influenced by several factors, such as the individual mobility demand of the participant within the geography, the structure of the public transportation network, and the question if the participant has reduced private vehicles. While the first two factors are difficult to grasp, the latter is known from the participant’s survey response. To assess the impact of private vehicle reduction on modal shift, we separately evaluated the subgroup of users who have sold a car. The results are remarkable. Of the participants who have sold a car, a higher percentage increases the use of public transportation and a lower percentage reduces the use of public transportation. Additionally, a higher percentage of these participants increases the use of bicycles and the quantity of walking. For example in Berlin (table 2 on the right), the share of participants who increased the use of urban rail grows from 9.7 % to 31.8 %, if we consider the subgroup of users who have sold a car. For intercity rail, the percentage increases from 9.9 % to 32%, for bus from 7.1 % to 21.3 %, for bicycle from 13.9 % to 39.8 %, for walking from 16.1 % to 28.8 %. Even if the percentage of participants who sold a car is still moderate (3.6 % to 16.1 % for the different cities, cf. figure 1), the removal leads to considerable reductions of private vehicle kilometers traveled. The relatively high mode shift percentages of participants who sold a car indicate where these saved kilometers might have gone: to public transportation in combination with walking and biking. Impacts on vehicle kilometers traveled The numbers of vehicles sold and suppressed allow us to estimate the impact of carsharing on vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). From the responses of the participants, neither the VKT of a sold vehicle nor the VKT of a not purchased vehicle can be directly determined. Therefore, we make assumptions for both cases. If participants sold a vehicle, we assume that they sold the vehicle with the lowest VKT in their ownership and count this VKT as a reduction. For a suppressed vehicle purchase, we base our VKT estimate on the average VKT of all participant-owned vehicles in the corresponding city. Our conservative scenario assumes that the suppressed vehicle would have been used with 20 % of this average VKT, and our optimistic scenario assumes that the suppressed vehicle would have been used with 80 % of this average VKT. As a replacement of their private cars, customers will now use - together with other transportation modes - carsharing vehicles. Therefore, the VKT reduced by sold and suppressed vehicles must be netted with the VKT that customers drive with carsharing vehicles. The VKT estimates for sold vehicles are roughly around 12,000 kilometers per year, the VKT estimates for suppressed vehicles roughly between 2,000 (conservative) and 14,000 (optimistic) kilometers per year. This leads to annual VKT reductions e. g. for Helsinki between 9.7 (conservative) and 21.3 (optimistic) million kilometers and for Berlin between 95.1 (conservative) and 190.7 (optimistic) million kilometers. Estimation of total vehicles sold Vehicles sold per SHARE NOW vehicle Estimation of total vehicles suppressed Vehicles suppressed per SHARE NOW vehicle Amsterdam 1.060 3,2 3.340 10,2 Berlin 4.616 4,4 11.834 11,4 Brussels 1.512 5,3 1.481 8,6 Copenhagen 1.367 3,2 6.835 18,6 Hamburg 3.100 3,8 11.020 13,4 Helsinki 424 2,9 1.212 9,0 Lisbon 425 2,1 2.009 10,4 London 868 2,4 3.629 13,3 Madrid 954 2,1 3.846 8,4 Rome 2.388 3,8 8.953 14,4 Vienna 2.234 3,2 5.356 7,8 Table 1: Estimates of sold and suppressed vehicles in absolute numbers and per-carsharingvehicle Carsharing STRATEGIES International Transportation | Collection 2020 19 Impacts on CO 2 emissions The impact on CO 2 emissions is a direct consequence of the VKT reductions. VKT reductions are transformed into CO 2 emission reductions by multiplying them with the official emission factors (g CO 2 per km) for the individual countries obtained from the Eurostat database [7]. Since sold vehicles are reported to be approximately 10 years old, we took the average emission factors for newly registered vehicles in 2008/ 2009. For suppressed vehicles, we used the 2016/ 2017 factors. According to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), real use phase emissions are on average 40 % higher than the officially reported testing cycle emissions (NEDC) [8]. Therefore, we added 40 % to the Eurostat emissions in our calculations. To obtain the net reduction of CO 2 emissions induced by the carsharing service, we had to balance the emission reductions caused by reduced and suppressed private vehicles with the emission increase caused by the carsharing fleet. For fleet vehicle emissions, we used model-specific factors of the actual fleet, again with the 40 % adjustment as described above. Table 3 shows, for each individual city, the net CO 2 emission reductions in absolute numbers and on a per-carsharingvehicle basis. They range between 1,737 and 17,865 tons/ year for the conservative scenario and between 4,233 and 34,864 tons/ year in the optimistic scenario. Netted CO 2 emission reductions per Share Now vehicle are between 8.7 and 17.2 tons/ year in the conservative scenario and between 21.1 and 33.5 tons/ year in the optimistic scenario. Conclusion After free-floating carsharing offerings have been available in major European cities for more than 10 years, positive impacts on vehicle holdings, modal shift, and CO 2 emission reductions can be observed. Although only a moderate percentage of car2go and DriveNow users have sold a vehicle or suppressed the purchase of a vehicle, the reductions in private vehicle holdings sum up to a considerable number. As a consequence, each fleet vehicle of the carsharing service turns out to remove a multiple of private vehicles. This frees up space in the streets (roadside parking) and parking lots of the cities. and fosters public transportation as a complement to carsharing. Removal of private cars leads to VKT reductions measured in tens or hundreds of millions of kilometers in each city, and, as a consequence, to CO 2 emission reductions in thousands of tons per year. The willingness of carsharing users to sell a car depends on many factors. One factor is certainly the coverage, performance, and ease of use of the public transportation system in the city and its surroundings. Another factor is the diminishing desire for car ownership with its associated fixed costs. But above all, we could observe that the willingness to sell a car increases with the time that the carsharing system has been in operation in the particular city. Therefore, it can be expected that in the coming years the trend to reduce private vehicles with its positive effects will continue. ■ LITERATURE [1] Martin, C. J. (2016): The sharing economy: A pathway to sustainability or a nightmarish form of neoliberal capitalism? . In Ecological economics, 121, pp. 149-159 [2] Shaheen, S. and Cohen, A. (2020): Innovative Mobility: Carsharing Outlook Carsharing Market Overview, Analysis, And Trends [3] Deloitte (2017): Car Sharing in Europe. Business Models, National Variations and Upcoming Disruptions [4] Fromm, H.; Ewald, L.; Frankenhauser, D.; Ensslen, A.; Jochem, P. (2019): A Study on Free-floating Carsharing in Europe: Impacts of car2go and DriveNow on modal shift, vehicle owner-ship, vehicle kilometers travelled, and CO 2 emissions in 11 European cities, Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 36, doi: 10.5445/ IR/ 1000104216, https: / / publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/ 1000104216/ 51584214 [5] Martin, E. and Shaheen, S. (2016): Impacts of car2go on vehicle ownership, modal shift, vehicle miles traveled, and greenhouse gas emissions. Working Paper [6] Schmöller, S.; Weikl, S.; Müller, J.; Bogenberger, K. (2015): Empirical analysis of free-floating carsharing usage: The Munich and Berlin case. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 56: 34-51 [7] Eurostat (2018). [online] Available at: http: / / ec.europa.eu/ eurostat/ tgm/ table.do? tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=t2020_ rk330 [8] Tietge, U.; Zacharov, N.; Mock, P.; Franco, V.; German, J.; Bandivadekar, A.; Ligterink, N.; Lambrecht, U. (2015): From laboratory to road - a 2015 update of official and “real-world” fuel consumption and CO 2 values for passenger cars in Europe, ICCT White Paper Hansjörg Fromm, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Honorary Professor at the Karlsruhe Service Research Institute (KSRI), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe (DE) hansjoerg.fromm@kit.edu Patrick Jochem, PD Dr. rer. pol. Lecturer at the Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe (DE) jochem@kit.edu Table 2: Modal shift due to carsharing for all participants and participants who sold a car (Berlin) All Participants Participants who sold a car Increased use No change Decreased use Increased use No change Decreased use Taxi 3,8 % 24,8 % 71,4 % 8,3 % 27,3 % 64,4 % Urban Rail 9,7 % 54,2 % 36,1 % 31,8 % 40,2 % 28,0 % Bus 7,1 % 58,6 % 34,3 % 21,3 % 50,0 % 28,7 % Intercity Rail 9,9 % 85,5 % 4,6 % 32,0 % 61,5 % 6,6 % Bicycle 13,5 % 70,4 % 16,1 % 39,8 % 54,2 % 5,9 % Walking 16,1 % 67,8 % 16,1 % 28,8 % 62,3 % 8,9 % Reduced CO 2 emissions due to SHARE NOW in tons per year (conservative - optimistic scenario) Estimation of total vehicles sold Reduced CO 2 emissions per SHARE NOW vehicle in tons per year (conservative - optimistic scenario) Amsterdam 4,887 - 10,126 14.9 - 30.9 Berlin 17,865 - 34,864 17.2 - 33.5 Brussels 4,343 - 6,423 15.2 - 22.5 Copenhagen 5,857 - 14,915 13.7 - 34.9 Hamburg 11,877 - 27,570 14.5 - 33.6 Helsinki 1,744 - 3,492 11.8 - 23.7 Lisbon 1,737 - 4,233 8.7 - 21.1 London 3,571 - 7,730 10.0 - 21.6 Madrid 4,087 - 9,074 8.9 - 19.9 Rome 7,878 - 18,550 12.7 - 29.8 Vienna 6,604 - 14,013 9.6 - 20.3 Table 3: Net CO 2 emission reductions due to Share Now in absolute numbers and on a percarsharing-vehicle basis STRATEGIES Urban development International Transportation | Collection 2020 20 The ATELIER project Citizen-driven Positive Energy Districts in Amsterdam, Bilbao and beyond Smart city, Smart mobility, Horizon 2020, Lighthouse Cities In November 2019, the Smart City project ATELIER has joined the ever growing family of Smart Cities and Communities projects funded by the European Commission’s Research and Framework Programme Horizon 2020, which is now counting 17 members. Coordinated by the City of Amsterdam, ATELIER will focus during the next five years on developing citizen-driven Positive Energy Districts in its two Lighthouse Cities Amsterdam and Bilbao and its six Fellow Cities across Europe to showcase innovative solutions that integrate buildings with smart mobility and technologies to create rather than consume energy. Bettina Remmele A s a Horizon 2020 Smart Cities and Communities project, ATELIER receives funding from the European Commission to develop innovative technologies and solutions in the fields of energy, mobility and ICT [1]. By combining the expertise and the commitment of 30 partners from 11 European countries, these innovations are then implemented in their two so-called Lighthouse Cities Amsterdam and Bilbao. The task of the six Fellow Cities Bratislava, Budapest, Copenhagen, Krakow, Matosinhos and Riga is to learn from these innovations through knowledge transfer and co-operations and to test these innovations for replicability and feasibility without the-financial support of the European Commission. In contrast to the earlier projects of the Horizon 2020 Smart Cities and Communities call, the focus of ATELIER and its four younger sister projects +CityXChange, MAKING-CITY and POCITYF, lies not only on the development of Smart Cities but has now further shifted towards the creation of Positive Energy Districts within Europe, with a strong involvement of the local citizens. With these Positive Energy Districts, ATELIER will thus generate an energy surplus of 1,340 MWh of primary energy and save 1,7 kilotons of CO 2 and 23 tons of NO x emissions. PED Innovation Ateliers ATELIER therefore not only stands for “AmsTErdam and biLbao cItizen drivEn smaRt cities”. The project also stands for eight “Positive Energy District (PED) Innovation Ateliers” that will be implemented as part of the project. The first two ateliers will be developed in the two Lighthouse Cities Amsterdam and Bilbao, with the six Fellow Cities following shortly afterwards. The aim of these physical ateliers is to provide a selfsustaining meeting place where different types of stakeholders, like industry and investors but most importantly citizens and local innovators, will be closely involved in the design processes and the implementations of the smart solutions in their homes and districts. “Our vision is to create dedicated PED Innovation Ateliers to strengthen the local innovation ecosystem, and to remove legal, financial or social barriers to the implementation of smart solutions”, says Frank Tazelaar, Head of Sustainability at the City of Amsterdam. “The Innovation Ateliers will be self-sustaining, continuing for a long time after the project has ended, thus being engines for the upscaling and replication of solutions within the ATELIER cities and beyond (Europe and the World). Moreover, through an active learning programme, we will capture and pass along the lessons learned of our Innovation Ateliers”, he adds. Naturally, the ateliers are therefore also reflected in the ATELIER logo with two three-dimensional cubes representing the two Lighthouse Cities and one cube divided into six parts to represent the Fellow Cities (figure 1). The physical ateliers with a strong focus on citizen engagement and social innovation are an important cornerstone of the ATELIER activities, aiming to reach as high an impact as possible on Europe and its cities. Another important part of the project will be the cooperation with other Smart City projects [2] and related initiatives like the Smart City Information System [3] or the European Innovation Partnership on Smart Cities and Communities [4] to learn from each other and to benefit from synergies and knowledge exchange. Moreover, each city will develop its own bold City Vision for 2050: “With ATELIER, we really want to pave the way for more ‘positive’ cities in Europe”, explains Eduardo Zabala of Tecnalia Research & Innovation, leader of the City Vision 2050 work. “Therefore, each of our eight involved cities will develop a City Vision 2050 that constitutes the roadmap for upscaling solutions in the long term. The main objective of this is to guarantee a seamless city transformation from planning to implementation and further upscaling and replication.” Citizen and stakeholder engagement as the secret ingredient The key ambition of ATELIER remains the creation of Positive Energy Districts with a strong and proactive involvement of citizens to increase their energy awareness and to invite them to more energy efficient behavior. With different activities, the pro- Figure 1: ATELIER project logo with three-dimensional cubes representing the eight ateliers. Urban development STRATEGIES International Transportation | Collection 2020 21 ject partners of ATELIER aim to empower their citizens, supporting them to play an active role in the energy system as a prosumer by consuming but also producing energy at the same time. Increasing the effectiveness of collaboration and systematically opening up knowledge between public and private partners is a crucial part of the citizen and stakeholder engagement strategy within ATELIER. Ensuring that citizens are fully engaged in the project, ATELIER intends to involve and align with existing energy communities under a framework of social inclusion. Moreover, the ATELIER approach specifically considers the role of the citizens as local residents but also as co-deciders, coimplementers and users of smart urban solutions in the PEDs. Specifically, ATEL- IER will organise project events and citizen engagement activities at local level to engage in a dialogue with citizens, residents and other interested stakeholders to showcase how the different ATELIER activities will have a positive impact upon its cities and its citizens. Amsterdam and Bilbao: Two cities with experience As part of ATELIER, Amsterdam and Bilbao build upon the practical experiences gained through previous smart city and smart energy initiatives. Both cities have been demo sites in previous Smart City projects such as CITY-ZEN, NEXT-BUILDINGS, ECOSTILER and STACCATO (Amsterdam) or BUILDSMART (Bilbao). ATELIER’s planned interventions thus benefit from yearlong experiences and promise outstanding impacts on the climate of their cities and the lives of their citizens. Lighthouse City Amsterdam As a popular tourist spot and the capital of the Netherlands, Amsterdam continues to grow. The city reached a peak of more than 1-million inhabitants in 2019! Such an expansion inevitably comes with various societal and climatic challenges. For almost ten years now, Amsterdam has thus taken steps towards climate neutral developments, resulting in its own Sustainable Energy Action Plan (SEAP) that has been adopted by the Covenant of Mayors in 2015. For the coming five years (and hopefully beyond), ATELIER will contribute to this expected system transition and thus help Amsterdam in halving carbon emissions by 2030. As part of ATELIER, one step along this transition process will be the Positive Energy District developed in six locations within Buiksloterham, in the north of Amsterdam. One of these six locations is De Ceuvel, an already existing energy community with a smart grid, participating in the energy trading activities of the project. Two locations are newly developed building groups, Poppies and Republica (see figure 2), with a total of 22,000 m 2 . In Poppies, for example, the positive energy performance will be reached by balanced ventilation with heat recovery and CO 2 controlled ventilation, low temperature heating, waste heat recovery from shower water and energy saving lighting. The four buildings locations will be a combination of tertiary (approximately 12,600 m 2 ) and residential (approximately 15,900 m 2 ) buildings, connected through a station for local (energy and resource) recovery of sewage waste streams and local renewable energy generation. The City of Amsterdam, Project Coordinator of ATELIER and City Coordinator of the Amsterdam demo site has got big plans: The PED within Buiksloterham will thus serve as a blueprint for the development of the entire area (figure 3). Amsterdam - a world leader in electric driving and cycling Regarding transportation, mobility currently causes about 9 % of CO 2 emissions in Amsterdam. In the past ten years, the city has already been working on limiting car traffic to reduce these numbers. And with success! As a result, Amsterdam has become a world leader in electric driving and cycling, with 2,800 public charging points and the same amount of private e-vehicle charging points in the city. In the coming years, the city plans to further limit emissions from individual and freight traffic, to restrict the distances driven in the urban area and to make a part of the city nearly car-free. The ultimate goal is to create a city free of traffic emissions by 2025/ 2030. ATELIER will contribute to these goals with a shared electromobility hub that will be developed in the demo district to build, demonstrate and validate the functioning of a zero emission car sharing platform, including about 15 to 20 electric cars and facilities for sharing electric Figure 2: Picture of Republica © Projectvisuals Figure 3: Impression of what Buiksloterham might look like in the future © Marc Koehler Architects STRATEGIES Urban development International Transportation | Collection 2020 22 bikes and so-called Biro’s (electric mopeds for disabled persons). Lighthouse City Bilbao The Basque city Bilbao developed its Sustainable Energy Action Plan for 2020 through a participatory process that has been conducted already in September 2012. It brings together various ambitions that have been developed by the City Council on topics like energy efficiency, public transport or cycling and electrification of vehicles. Regarding mobility interventions, as part of ATELIER, Bilbao thus aims to replace its waste collection and cleaning vehicles with electric vehicles and to implement 3,500 electric vehicles in the city by 2020. Moreover, Bilbao plans to provide the municipality with a vehicle recharge infrastructure, as well as an online electric vehicle promotion platform. The dedicated demo district of Bilbao will be Zorrotzaurre, an industrial area during the 20th century with lots of heavy industry coming from the Port of Bilbao that was originally part of the mainland and was transformed into a peninsula during the 1960’s to accommodate more space for docks. This peninsula has only recently in October 2018 become an island, a fact that has lowered the flooding risk of the northernmost part of the City of Bilbao as it prevents a bottleneck in the estuaryy (figure 4). Accessible by zero-emissions vehicles only According to Bilbao’s Strategy for Sustainable and Integrated Urban Development, Zorrotzaurre shall turn into a residential and business district where the deployment of new sustainable concepts, principles and solutions will be tested. The aim is to develop 5,500 new homes, 150,000 m 2 of office spaces, 154,000 m 2 of citizen spaces and 93,500 m 2 of social and cultural facilities. The island will be accessible by zeroemissions vehicles only. The idea is to implement a zero emissions energy supply scheme and 100 % electric public transportation. Amongst other implementations, interactive bus shelters will provide information on the energy flows, storage and local renewable generation, a seating area with weather protection, and many other functionalities for citizens. As part of ATELIER, Zorrotzaurre will be home to three Positive Energy Districts that will be connected via a geo-exchange loop, a system that will use geothermal and hydrothermal renewable energy to cover the thermal demand of the PED locations and to export the surplus to the rest of the island and, eventually, beyond. The core focus of the ATELIER demonstrations in Bilbao is thus the development of the geothermal system, an e-mobility hub, smart storage, local renewable energy production and the development of a smart grid and demand/ response offers. Replication and upscaling in six ATELIER Fellow Cities Positive Energy Districts are quite a new approach. So far, there are only few realworld examples to learn from. The design process of the ATELIER PED’s is thus essential for replication across other cities with different geographic, climate, economic and social scenarios. ATELIER will address extensive replication and upscaling activities to disseminate best practices and effective solutions based on two different actions: first, replication of PEDs in previously identified areas within the six Fellow Cities, and second, through the development of individual Replication Plans in the Fellow Cities and Upscaling Plans in the Lighthouse Cities. The main pillars of the Replication Plans will be the creation of PED Innovation Ateliers to coordinate city council departments, to integrate strategies and to engage the respective stakeholders. From now until October 2024, when the five year duration of ATELIER will have ended, the project has planned a lot. The two Lighthouse Cities have ambitious plans and the six Fellow Cities are eager to learn and replicate the most successful approaches in their own environments. The ATELIER project partners are looking forward to taking all interested stakeholders along this journey and is excited about the many new Positive Energy Districts to come. ■ LITERATURE [1] https: / / ec.europa.eu/ inea/ en/ horizon-2020/ smart-cities-communities [2] https: / / smartcities-infosystem.eu/ scc-lighthouse-projects [3] https: / / smartcities-infosystem.eu [4] https: / / eu-smartcities.eu [5] www.smartcity-atelier.eu [6] www.steinbeis-europa.de/ en/ ATELIER AT A GLANCE The activities and outcomes of ATELIER will regularly be shared with the public via the website [5], the social media channels on Twitter and LinkedIn (AtelierH2020), and via the newsletter (coming soon). Everyone can follow the project virtually and come talk to its partners at national and international events to learn more about how ATELIER will improve the life of its citizens and the livability in its cities. Steinbeis-Europa-Zentrum [6] is a project partner within ATELIER and responsible for dissemination, communication and exploitation of the project activities and results. Steinbeis-Europa-Zentrum is an experienced partner in several other Smart City projects such as Remourban and Triangulum (both projects were part of the first generation of Smart Cities and Communities projects, completing their five year duration in 2020), SmartEnCity, mySMARTLife, as well as the two initiatives by the European Commission Smart Cities Information System and European Innovation Partnership on Smart Cities and Communities. Contact: ATELIER Project Coordinator, City-of Amsterdam, atelier.eu@amsterdam.nl Bettina Remmele, Dr. Steinbeis-Europa-Zentrum, Stuttgart (DE) remmele@steinbeis-europa.de Figure 4: Picture of Zorrotzaurre © Ayuntamiento de Bilbao Rural development BEST PRACTICE International Transportation | Collection 2020 23 New mobility concepts for rural areas Lessons learnt in the European cooperation project “Peripheral Access” Interreg, Rural areas, Mobility, Public transport, Europe, Cooperation European border regions, peri-urban and rural areas suffer from an undersupply of adequate local public transport. The consequences are manifold: high individual traffic, air pollution and reduced mobility for disadvantaged groups. Numerous initiatives, including transnational European cooperation projects, are developing and testing solutions for this at the local level. When applied consistently and expanded further, they can achieve great success on a small scale - if political support is available. The partners in the EU project Peripheral Access have approached this in different ways. Alexandra Beer H ow can rural and remote regions in Central Europe become better connected to public transport? Peripheral Access 1 has been working on this issue for the past three years under the leadership of the German Association for Housing, Urban and Spatial Development (Deutscher Verband für Wohnungswesen, Städtebau und Raumordnung e. V.). The project was supported by the Interreg B programme “Central Europe”. Thematically, the project focus was on the support of intermodality and infrastructure in the participating regions, the use of intelligent communication technologies and innovative cooperation and marketing approaches. As the project came to an end in May 2020, the nine partners from Slovenia, Italy, Austria, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Germany presented the results of their local pilot activities 2 . The measures range from the improvement of existing transport systems to the complete redevelopment of previously unserved areas. All “peripheral” categories are represented among the participating regions: border regions, suburban regions and rural areas. In a detailed evaluation report 3 the partners assessed the project as a whole with regard to the thematic priorities and at the same time analysed the processes and results of the individual pilot projects. Based on this, they developed further political recommendations for action. With these two levels, the report should help disseminate the project results and thus make it easier for other regions and municipalities to implement similar measures. Transfer point set up outside Graz in Austria Among the innovations established by the regions during the project period is the establishment of a transfer point between different modes of transport (“multimodal node”) in the area surrounding the Austrian city of Graz. The project partner Regional Management Metropolitan Area of Styria (Regionalmanagement Steirischer Zentralraum) transferred the “tim” system, which has already been successfully established in inner city locations and combines car sharing of e-vehicles with parking facilities, taxi stands and bike sharing, to the nearby municipality of Hart bei Graz. There, it was further developed as “Regiotim” and adapted to local requirements. In addition to a charging station and the purchase of an e-car, the regional management installed covered bicycle parking and storage facilities (see figure 1). The area around a public bus stop in the centre of Hart bei Graz was converted into an attractive multimodal hub. The measures are intended to contribute to reducing the dependence of citizens on their own cars in the long term. The first “Regiotim” node also marks the beginning of an expansion of the system to the entire region. The pilot project provided valuable know-how regard- Figure 1: “Regiotim” in Hart near Graz, Austria Source: Verkehrplus BEST PRACTICE Rural development International Transportation | Collection 2020 24 ing equipment and technical implementation. The additional locations envisaged will be able to benefit directly from this knowledge. Vogtland region wants to attract more passengers to the Elster Valley Railway Line The authority for local public transport Vogtland (Verkehrsverbund Vogtland) had set itself the goal of better marketing the Elster Valley Railway Line, which is particularly attractive for tourists and runs from Thuringia via Saxony in Germany to the Czech town of Cheb, and to make better use of passenger capacities through leisure traffic. To this end, the project partner commissioned a trilingual tourist guidance system with various information options. The framework of the guidance system is the story of the giant “Voglar”. Travellers will find his footprints in the form of floor stickers at selected platforms and other points along the route (figure 2). Interested parties scan the QR codes depicted on the footprints with a mobile device to learn more about local tourist attractions or to access timetables and other information. The offer is supplemented by an augmented reality app, which introduces visitors to the imaginary “World of the Giant Voglar”. The project partner first conducted surveys on user requirements and carried out test rides with focus groups. The results led to a mixture of static and digital solutions and helped to optimise the marketing approach. The transport authority hopes that this will lead to an increase in the number of journeys in the medium term. Since the guidance system is managed via a central website and additional footprint stickers with QR codes can be positioned cost-effectively and easily, it can be extended to the entire transport network if required. However, this is connected with high financial investments which cannot be covered by the surrounding communities - this would have to be enabled by follow-up projects or other support measures. Call a Smartbus for a ride through the Trieste region The aim of the pilot project in the Italian region Friuli-Venezia Giulia was to improve the accessibility of the sparsely populated karst plateau north of the city of Trieste on the border with Slovenia. The local transport company Trieste Trasporti developed an innovative on-demand service: with the support of Venice International University VIU, they tested the “Smartbus” for several months as a supplement to regular bus services (figure 3). Two vehicles on two routes operated daily between 9: 00 and 21: 00 as booked by passengers. The service administration ran on an IT platform installed specifically for the pilot. One bus served a route with 68 stops, the other even covered 199 stops. Newspaper articles, funny YouTube videos and other activities were used to present the service to the public. The experiences in the Veneto region highlight the importance of a proactive, coordinating role of the public sector. It also became clear that, despite existing synergies, the current legal framework for crossborder public transport between Italy and Slovenia remains subject to many restrictions. The catchment areas of central towns in border regions usually extend to several countries. Therefore, there is still a lot of potential to create suitable mobility offers for visitors and commuters alike and thus also for reducing emissions from individual transport. Diverse package of measures in the South Moravian border region The main objective of the Czech pilot activities was to improve public transport in peripheral areas in a sustainable way - for daily commuters and for tourists. The project partner Kordis JKM, coordinator of the integrated transport system of the South Moravian region, therefore focused on the introduction of new bus services with bicycle transport (“Cyclobus”, see figure 4) as well as cross-border transport services for tourists. Extensive public relations work with information stands, flyers, special train rides and many other activities supported the pilot projects. The measures are already having an effect: new seasonal bus connections from the centre of the Brno region to the Podyjí/ Thaya Valley National Park as well as other year-round cross-border bus services have been set up and were very well received. Moreover, the long-standing efforts for South Moravian tickets to be recognised on trains between Znojmo in the Czech Republic and Retz in Austria have finally been successful. Regularly and extensively involving the population was crucial for these results, as the locals know most about the actual transport needs in the region. Figure 3: The “Smartbus” as an innovative on-demand service in Trieste, Italy Source: Trieste Trasporti Figure 2: “Floorgraphic” as part of the marketing measures in the Vogtland region Source: Verkehrsverbund Vogtland Figure 4: The “Cyclobus” takes cyclists to their destination in the South Moravian border region (CZ/ AT) Source: Kordis JMK Rural development BEST PRACTICE International Transportation | Collection 2020 25 Big plans for the Polish region of Lubin In the Polish municipality of Lubin, the largest transport hub in the district is to be built in the near future, linking local, national and international means of transport. Implementation will cost around 95 million euros and will take several years. Within the framework of Peripheral Access, the Powiat Lubiński (district administration of Lubin) developed the first concept for this transport hub and carried out marketing measures and a multi-channel participation process alongside each other. Design guidelines for the construction of a necessary tunnel were developed, which form the basis for the subsequent financing of railway infrastructure (figure 5). After completing this phase, a very stable economic and political situation and good cooperation on many levels are necessary for the ongoing progress of the project. With its broad-based citizen participation, the administration saw great interest and acceptance for the project in the region. It therefore hopes that the plans once adopted will also be continued by future political successors and the institutions and companies involved. Implementation of regional action plans in Slovenia and Hungary Some partners from Slovenia and Hungary, who did not carry out their own pilot projects, implemented other measures instead. These were identified, among other ideas, in a status quo analysis and an action plan during the first phase of the cooperation project. For example, the regional development agency of the Ljubljana region (RRA LUR Regionalna razvojna agencija Ljubljanske urbane regije) selected the most suitable option after evaluating possible on-demand services: In areas without public transport, a taxi or bus is offered to take passengers to the nearest railway station. In cooperation with Ljubljana passenger transport and the municipality of the suburban municipality of Škofljica, this offer was tested with e-cars. The city of Balassagyarmat, Hungary, has set itself the long-term goals of offering a better passenger transport service and creating a network of cycle paths. As an accompanying measure, the project partner KTI Institute of Transport Sciences (KTI Közlekedéstudományi Intézet Nonprofit Korlátolt Felelősségű Társaság) organised a “Road Safety Day” as part of Peripheral Access. During this event, local residents, especially school children, were informed about ongoing cycling projects and were able to increase their knowledge of road traffic regulations with the future cycling infrastructure in mind (figure 6). Major challenges remain for peripheral areas Peripheral Access has shown that pilot projects can produce innovative ideas and that urban solutions can be transferred to the surrounding area - if they are carefully adapted to the respective environment. All partner regions have achieved improvements in rural public transport. However, the pilot examples also clearly highlight the deficits that still exist: Many peripheral areas in Europe are still not adequately connected to public transport. This is not only a technical challenge: rather, strong political and financial support, for example for new cross-border public transport systems, is needed, especially at EU level. Otherwise, regions and countries will continue to give priority to internal transport connections within their own countries, thus further encouraging the departure of young qualified people from border regions. Peripheral Access shows: Innovative mobility solutions have also only partially found their way into suburban and rural areas. However, local stakeholders need to show more initiative and courage to trial and provide such complementary systems. Political commitment and additional financial resources required Good solutions for attractive mobility offers in rural areas are not available for free. This requires more than just pilot projects: It requires a clear commitment to local public transport. Sufficient financial resources must be made available for this at national and EU level. Against the background of the current discussion on air quality, public transport is increasingly being seen again as the most effective and environmentally friendly means of transporting large numbers of people compared to private cars. But the focus of strategies and investments is often too much on urban agglomerations. More needs to be done at all levels of government to ensure that such successful pilot projects can be widely disseminated and that appropriate rural strategies are put in place that provide long-term guidance and facilitate cooperation. ■ 1 Further information is available on the project homepage: www.interreg-central.eu/ Content.Node/ Peripheral- Access.html 2 The partner organisations as well as the project results are presented in a series of “factsheets” and are available at the following link: www.interreg-central.eu/ Content. Node/ Press-and-Communication-Kit-Fact-Sheets.zip 3 The evaluation report is available at the following link: www.interreg-central.eu/ Content.Node/ Peripheral- Access-Evaluation-report-w-cover.pdf Alexandra Beer, Dipl.-Ing. (FH) Project Coordinator, German Association for Housing, Urban and Spatial Development, Berlin (DE) a.beer@deutscher-verband.org Figure 5: Rendering of the planned transport interchange in Lubin, Poland Source: Powiat Lubiński Figure 6: “Road Safety Day” in the city of Balassagyarmat, Hungary Source: KTI Közlekedéstudományi Intézet Nonprofit Korlátolt Felelősségű Társaság International Transportation | Collection 2020 26 The Perpignan-Figueras high-speed line A great European project that arrived in the middle of a-crisis-and in an immature environment Concession, TP Ferro, LFP, Perpignan-Figueres, High-speed line The Perpignan-Figueras high-speed line is one of the major European projects aimed at solving technical barriers and bottlenecks between rail networks. It is an interoperable line designed for mixed passenger and freight traffic, built perfectly on time. Delivered into commercial service in December 2010, it arrived in the middle of a global financial crisis and in an immature and incomplete railway environment. The situation is improving, but the line is still underutilized. Perspectives are good, but efforts are necessary, both on the infrastructure side, operators’ and on the authorities’ side, to set up regional trains. Petros Papaghiannakis T he history of the Perpignan- Figueras high-speed line stretches back in 1994. The Corfu’ (June 1994) and Essen (December 1994) European Councils endorse a list of 14 TEN-T priority projects, drawn up by a group chaired by then Commission Vice-President Henning Christophersen. Perpignan-Figueras high-speed railway line was included into this list. In addition to the environmental benefits, the socioeconomic expectations of a Perpignan-Figueras high-speed line were numerous for both passengers and freight: significant trans-Pyrenean capacity increase and drastic reduction in travelling times, boosting economic development across the Iberian Peninsula, facilitating rail-traffic between Spain and rest of Europe without gauge changes. Nevertheless, at the same time as the birth of the project, several conditions began to be met that several years later, will prevent it from developing upon its delivery to service. Indeed, at that time (1994) there was no mention of the international gauge Mediterranean corridor in Spain, yet absolutely vital. The line was seen in a radial logic along a high-speed axis Madrid-Barcelona-Perpignan, but not in its global context with a Barcelona-Tarragona-Valencia-Algeciras axis along the Mediterranean coast. One year later, on 10 October 1995, in the frame of the “Madrid Agreement”, French and Spanish governments agreed to create a new line between Perpignan (France) and Figueras (Spain). This would become the prime rail link between the two countries on the Mediterranean side, in addition to the existing conventional line close to the Mediterranean coast with the gauge-change border crossing at Cerbère-Portbou. The project would be realised under a Concession scheme, with mixed financing public-private, including design, construction, operation and maintenance. A binational Intergovernmental Commission was set up to promote the project. The first international Tender was declared unsuccessful due to the impossibility to reach an agreement with the final Bid- Photo: LFP BEST PRACTICE High-speed rail High-speed rail BEST PRACTICE International Transportation | Collection 2020 27 der. Subsequently to the second Tender (2003), the Joint Venture consisting of Eiffage and ACS/ Dragados was declared successful bidder. It is important to underline that traffic forecasts were conservative, if not cautious. This was a decisive point for the choice by the two States of the winner of the tender. TP Ferro Concesionaria S.A. was born as an ad-hoc Company and became the Concessionaire of the project. In the meantime, in 2003 following recommendations from the Karel Van Miert TEN-T workgroup, the EU Commission compiled a list of 30 priority projects to be launched before 2010 - unfortunately, still no mention about the Mediterranean corridor in Spain. The Concession Agreement was signed on 17 February 2004. It provided for five years of design and construction and fortyeight years of operations and maintenance. In round figures, the almost EUR 1.15 billion project finance was mixed and consisted of: • own equity covering about 10 % of the costs • external loans of the Concessionaire covering roughly 40 % of the costs • public subsidy covering about 50 % of the costs, out of which half of it was financed by the European Union, while France and Spain financed a quarter portion each The return on equity and loans’ amortization was planned to be achieved through toll revenues generated by the trains’ traffic. In a European level, on December 2005, the Loyola De Palacio TEN-T workgroup report made no mention about the Mediterranean corridor in Spain, despite the Concession Agreement was signed 1.5 years earlier thus ignoring strong demands of Spanish regional authorities. Obviously, still nobody in the EU had understood that the Perpignan-Figueras line had no chances of success without the Mediterranean Corridor and that both projects were vital one to each other. In this regard, it is interesting to read Mr. Josep Vicent Boira Maiques’ article dated 2006 1 , which describes the work and the efforts that were necessary from the Spanish local stakeholders, so that the Mediterranean Corridor is integrated in the TEN-T. Project finance closed on February 2005 with a pool of five major international banks. Following financial closing, the debt was syndicated with a group of another additional international financial institutions. At a first stage, project finance was achieved from 2005 to 2015. This period was called “Miniperm”. During this period, the Concessionaire had no reimbursement to do towards the Lenders, the project was re-evaluated in order to re-finance it up to the Concession end. In 2015 was beginning the re-finance for 24 years and the amortization of the debt that was supposed to finalize in 2039. The construction works began on February 2005. The infrastructure included a great amount of civil-work structure. Double track, one 8.3 km double-tube tunnel known as the “Perthus Tunnel” (see figure 1 ), two false tunnels, ten long viaducts (some of them above 600 m) of a total aggregated length of 3,000 m, one flyover for the travel side inversion (see figure 2), 14 railway bridges, 11 road bridges, 9 overpasses and 61 hydraulic and drainage works, retaining walls etc. Civil engineering and earthworks for open-air sections were completed on time by late 2007. The “Perthus Tunnel” was constructed using two tunnel boring machines (TBM). Unexpected geological conditions accounted for several extra months needed for tunnel completion and additional workforce (2 or 3 daily running shifts) to comply with the contractual schedule. Infrastructure completed perfectly-on time Despite the above, the works including testing and commissioning of the line were finally completed on 17 February 2009, perfectly on time, exactly five years after the Concession Agreement signature. Figure 1: Southern tunnel portal Source: LFP Figure 2: Northern “Perthus Tunnel” portal with flyover (background) Source: LFP BEST PRACTICE High-speed rail International Transportation | Collection 2020 28 In terms of design, the line and the Tunnel are fully compliant with the Technical Specifications of Interoperability. The line consists of two 5 km connecting tracks to the French conventional network operated at 160 km/ h and 44 km of double track operated at 300 km/ h. The alignment is designed for up to 350 km/ h operations. The track has 1,435 mm standard gauge. It is electrified by means of 25 kV AC-50 Hz overhead line. The safety system is ERTMS levels 1 and 2. However, only ERTMS level 1 has been tested and delivered to service. ERTMS level 2 is installed but not in function: it will be activated and delivered to service upon States’ request. The line is used by both passenger and freight trains (see figure 3). The capability for mixed-traffic is materialized by far less severe gradients than those of lines dedicated to high-speed trains. The stiffest gradient is limited to 18 ‰ and only along two short sections preceded by descents. The longest gradient is 10.9 ‰ stiff and 6,400 m long at the Perthus base Tunnel, that connects France and Spain below the Pyreneans. The cant is limited to a maximum value of 135 mm to allow unrestricted operation of freight trains. The maximum axle load is 22.5 t/ axle, whereas the gages allow the operation of wide and high freight trains gage, as well as rolling motorway (piggyback) trains. Simultaneous operation and crossings between high-speed and freight trains are done with no restrictions, while five sidings between Perpignan and Barcelona Port make possible the overtaking between trains. Nevertheless, despite the quality and performance of the infrastructure, several problems started popping up as of 2009. Due to construction delays in the southbound section from Figueras to Barcelona, the line remained fully operational but with no traffic during 22 months, from 17 February 2009 to 19 December 2010. This first difficulty actually foreshadowed a series of others that, six years later, led the Concessionaire to liquidation in September 2016. At a first stage, the line was set into commercial service in December 2010, with only two daily roundtrips of high-speed TGV trains between Paris and Figueras. Once in Figueras Vilafant station, passengers had to get off the train and get in another commuter train until Barcelona, through the conventional line. These temporary operations lasted two years until the delivery to commercial service of the Figueras-Barcelona high-speed line. Full operations in the entire section Perpignan-Figueras-Barcelona started in December 2012. Since the very beginning of the operations, it appeared that traffic was far below the forecasts, even though they were supposed to be conservative. High-speed trains traffic was consisting of only 4 (winter) to 7 (summer) daily roundtrips, far below public expectations. Several causes for this: • Strong competition from low-cost flights, long-distance buses and car-sharing • Lack of attractiveness of the rail offer: - mainly focusing to tourists journeys, not adapted to commuters and regional travellers - high prices - insufficient frequency (cadence): for example with 1 daily roundtrip between Barcelona, Toulouse, Marseille and Lyon, it was impossible to make a roundtrip in the same day, thus making necessary to spend one night in a hotel - inadequate schedules such as afternoon arrivals that had no interest for professional travellers • And to a lesser extent, long travel time given due to the fact that the Montpellier-Perpignan high-speed rail link was still not built Regional traffic situation was even worse: it never began! Despite explicit mentions into the Public Interest Inquiry (“DUP”), the two Regions, in their capacity of Public Regional Transport Authorities, were slow to react. None of the benefits for the regional population put forward in the Public Interest Inquiry was achieved. Table 1 compares the passenger trains foreseen in the Public Interest Inquiry, with the real situation. It is a pity, especially considering that all unrealized services are with economically powerful cities and covering distances of 400 to 700 km, the preferred distance of high-speed trains. Finally, with only 2 to 3 daily roundtrips, the situation of the freight traffic was difficult as well, but not for the same reasons. Demand was very high, but freight mainly suffered from the lack of international gauge network in Spain, along the Mediterranean coast towards Tarragona and Valencia and the associated capillary network to the ports, factories and logistics centres. In other words, the lack of the Mediterranean Corridor. International gauge tracks still extend today only down to Barcelona Port connecting Can Tunis and Morrot terminals. In other words, international gauge trains still have no possibillity to reach dozens of freight generators in Spain. Fortunately, this situation is now improving rapidly and this problem should be resolved by 2022 to 2023. Finally, thanks to strong pressure from numerous Spanish stakeholders since 2004 (Regional governments, Ports, Trade Chambers, Transporters’ associations), Mediterra- Figure 3: Freight train on a viaduct Source: LFP Public Interest Inquiry Real situation Barcelona - Toulouse Yes Done partially (only in summer time) Barcelona- Paris Yes Yes (2 to 4 roundtrips/ day) Barcelona- Brussels Yes Not done Barcelona- Marseille Yes Yes (1 roundtrip/ day) Barcelona- Lyon Yes Yes (1 roundtrip/ day) Barcelona- Genéve - Zürich Yes Not done Barcelona- Milano Yes Not done Barcelona- Nice, Côte d’Azur Yes Not done Table 1: Passenger trains foreseen compared to the real situation High-speed rail BEST PRACTICE International Transportation | Collection 2020 29 M A R M E D I T E R R Á N E O ALICANTE VALENCIA CASTELLÓN TARRAGONA MURCIA CARTAGENA Sagunto La Encina N BARCELONA PALMA DE MALLORCA Castellbisbal Martorell St. Vicenç de Calders Nudo Perafort Xàtiva Pulpí Vera Los Arejos Níjar Almussafes GIRONA CORREDOR MEDITERRÁNEO ESTADO ACTUAL - FEBRERO 2020 MÁLAGA ALGECIRAS Loja Bobadilla / Antequera Ronda GRANADA Mollet MADRID - CUENCA MADRID - ALBACETE Monforte del Cid ELCHE LEYENDA ANCHO DE VÍA ESTADO VÍA ANCHO UIC VÍA ANCHO IBÉRICO VÍA ANCHO MIXTO FASE DE EXPLOTACIÓN FASE DE EJECUCIÓN FASE DE PROYECTO Vandellós Moixent NODO PRINCIPAL El Reguerón Riquelme Vila-seca Figueres - Vilafant NODO SECUNDARIO SEVILLA CÓRDOBA Alcazar de San Juan MADRID ZARAGOZA Le Perthus Portbou Cerbère ALMERÍA Situation as of Feb.2020 Figure 4: Present situation vs. scheduled buildout Source: Spanish Ministry of Transport, Mobility and Urban Agenda Final Situation BEST PRACTICE High-speed rail International Transportation | Collection 2020 30 nean Corridor was included in the Trans- European network in 2011 under then Commissioner Siim Kallas and appeared as such in Regulations (EU) 1315/ 2013 and 1316/ 2013. The founding stone of the Mediterranean Corridor in Spain Looking into it with perspective, the founding stone of the Mediterranean Corridor in Spain was placed 17 years after the Perpignan-Figueras line! This problem caused one collateral damage: given the lack of international gauge network in Spain, the operators postponed their investments for interoperable multisystem locomotives. Therefore, since 2010 and up to now (2020) still only one operator provides traction services for freight, using few retrofitted locomotives removed from passengers’ services between Madrid and Seville. Designed for 200 km/ h passengers’ trains operating into Spain, although powerful, these locomotives suffer from technical limitations that require operating them in multiple unit (double locomotive) when entering in France, thus increasing the transport costs offered to customers. Macroeconomic and structural factors also heavily contributed to slowdown traffic development and deeply modified railways landscape. The economic and financial crisis that began in 2008 affected significantly in terms of demand of goods and mobility of people and subsequently passenger and freight traffic in Europe. Nevertheless, this was not the only consequence: • The States had less financial resources and were no longer able to finance development of infrastructures, despite having programmed and announced them • The national Railway Undertakings RENFE and SNCF were subject to very strong financial pressure to limit their deficit and therefore decided to drastically reduce passenger rail services for cost reasons Indeed, there has been a sharp change in the commercial strategy for high-speed transport services of the national railway operators. For profitability reasons and subject to strong financial pressure, these companies severely limited their offer of highspeed trains. In other words, contrary to the situation that was prevailing in the 2000’ decade, the priorities of the national railway companies changed radically from 2012. Faced with intense competition from other modes of transport and strong financial pressures, they were no longer in position to offer a plethora of high-speed services that became too expensive and decided to concentrate their offer on the most heavily frequented services. Economic failure of the concession? In summary, Perpignan-Figueras highspeed line was imagined “independent” from the Mediterranean Corridor, it arrived in the middle of a worldwide crisis and while railway environment was still immature from all points of view. All conditions were met to lead to the economic failure of the Concession. In the meantime, between 2010 and 2015, several banks, sold their portion of the Concessionaire’ debt to Hedge Funds. In 2015, Hedge Funds were holding the majority of TP Ferro’ (Concessionaire) debt. In 2015, at the time of the beginning of the re-finance process, it became obvious that the debt could not be re-financed under the initial conditions anticipated in the 2005’ finance closing. The traffics recorded on the line for both passengers and goods trains, were respectively less than 25% and less than 10% of the anticipated traffic in the Concession financial model. The financial model was robust and able to absorb deterioration of its parameters: slow ramp-ups, traffic fluctuation, inflation, delays of the international gauge infrastructures in Spain, rolling stock homologating delays, regulatory issues, ERTMS deployment delays, etc. But in this case, there was a deep and simultaneous deterioration of all the parameters of the Concession. In March 2015, the Concessionaire TP Ferro entered into an administration process and started an intensive work to find a commonly acceptable solution by all involved parties: Shareholders, Lenders and States (Spain and France). Several refinance scenarios and mechanisms were proposed by TP Ferro, but unfortunately none of those prospered. Facing the impossibility to reach an agreement, Girona’s Mercantile Court had no other choice than ordering TP Ferro’s liquidation in September 2016. Finally, on December 20th 2016, the operation of the line was entrusted to Línea Figueras Perpignan S.A. or “LFP”, a joint subsidiary of the two historical infrastructure managers, SNCF Réseau and ADIF. All the staff and management was maintained unchanged. An Operating Agreement was signed for 4 years between LFP and the two States. This Convention will be extended until December 2022. Today (2020), LFP is still operating the line according to the best practices. Its operations performance is very high, while the costs are kept at a very reasonable level. What about the future? The perspectives for the future are positive. With reference to the 2020 situation, highspeed traffic should increase by 40 % until 2026, while freight traffic (see figure 3) should be multiplied by 4 and even more. However, LFP intends remaining humble and modest, indeed, there is no big feat multiplying by several times a traffic that is currently very low. Of course, these perspectives are conditioned by the completion of the international gauge network in Spain, along the Mediterranean coast. Fortunately, since 2013 Spain is putting huge efforts on the Mediterranean Corridor, works are progressing rapidly and completion is getting closer every day. No official completion deadlines are available, especially given the covid-19 recent pandemic consequences in Spain and all around the world. According to the author’s estimate, works in the section between Castellbisbal (Barcelona area) and Tarragona would be competed in late 2022 with a delivery to service expected in 2023, while the section from Tarragona to Valencia would be completed by 2024 (see figure-4). The main challenge for the coming years will be the regional passenger trains for which a strong commitment from Regional and National authorities and Operators is necessary in order to establish new services responding to the regional and “commuters” demand. A proven solution would be to create a binational Joint Promoter whose mission would be to define the general mobility patterns for the inhabitants of the Regions and above all implement such new services. This Promoter would include all stakeholders: Regions (Catalonia and Occitanie) and Operators (SNCF and RENFE) as decision makers, with Infrastructure Managers as technical support (LFP; SNCF Réseau and ADIF). This type of mechanism called “Léman Express” was put in place successfully between France and Switzerland. In conclusion, the future looks bright - but a lot of work still needs to be done. ■ 1 available on https: / / ddd.uab.cat/ pub/ prmb/ 18883621n44/ 18883621n44p44.pdf Petros Papaghiannakis General Manager and Chief Operations Officer (COO), Línea Figueras Perpignan S.A., Llers/ Girona (ES) ppapaghiannakis@lfpperthus.com Public transport PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS International Transportation | Collection 2020 31 Integrating demandresponsive transportation Bridging the gap between public transit and individual mobility in a Mobility-as-a-Service ecosystem Demand-responsive transit, Microtransit, Mobility-as-a-Service, Shared mobility New mobility services are expanding quickly, putting pressure on public transit. Cities are challenged to embrace mobility innovations while meeting overarching public mobility objectives. In the advent of autonomous driving, taking an active role becomes ever more important for cities. Digitalization enables cities to become mobility orchestrators by building an integrated urban mobility ecosystem and flexibilizing traditional public transit via the means of demand-responsive transit. We discuss critical ingredients to a successful implementation of a city-operated on-demand MaaS landscape. Lukas Foljanty, Mark-Philipp Wilhelms U rban mobility is on the verge of fundamental change, driven by an ever-growing market of mobility services and the advent of autonomous vehicles (AV). The introduction of (shared) AVs will radically change mobility behavior, and today’s share of modes of transportation will be distributed anew [1]. Despite major OEMs and technology companies increasing focus on AVs, it will take some time until marketable solutions can master the complexity of urban traffic conditions and are accepted by the public. While AVs promise significant benefits to the individual and society, regulators become increasingly aware that they have to play an active role as urban mobility orchestrators to ensure that the gains outweigh the potential drawbacks. Paving the way to a shared autonomous mobility ecosystem, today, public stakeholders face a rapidly developing mobility services market. Novel private players are entering cities at unprecedented speed to profit from the Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) market that is expected to exceed USD 60 billion by the end of 2021 [2]. Globally, customers are quickly embracing these services, elevating the need for cities to act. Policymakers are seeking a more active role by becoming active providers of new mobility services or by integrating existing mobility services into one easily accessible MaaS platform. Ultimately, to ensure that these mobility innovations serve the city’s overarching smart mobility strategy. Based on our experience gained in rolling out demand-responsive transportation and MaaS services, we outline the two key ingredients to a successful implementation of MaaS in a city - integration, and flexibilization. By binding together all publicly available mobility services in one platform and by introducing highly flexible demandresponsive public transit (DRPT) services, cities can create the ideal basis already today to ready themselves for the autonomous future. Integration - Seamless access to a city’s complete mobility landscape The rapid urbanization and re-urbanization in many parts of the world is creating complex challenges for the livability within cities. Besides housing, waste, or water, aspects of individual mobility, and its adverse impacts on the environment and quality of life are vital challenges faced by cities globally. While traditional mass transit is an efficient and environmentally friendly mode to transport large numbers of commuters, it lacks the benefits of individual motorized transportation. Convenience and comfort are limited, it is overcrowded during peak hours and slow to adapt to changing demands, as the construction of new lines requires significant infrastructure investments and takes many years to complete. With increasing wealth, individual motorized transport becomes the preferred mode of transportation for many. Yet, it creates various challenges to the livability of a city such as its enormous land consumption, harmful pollution, or an increase in traffic injuries and deaths. While AVs promise to overcome issues such as parking shortages and traffic jams, they also are expected to further increase individualized motorized traffic due to accessibility and comfort [3]. Cities are therefore searching for ways to shift the mobility behavior of their citizens away from individual motorized transport. A growing number of cities are strategizing mobility ecosystems, encompassing multiple mobility options as an alternative to the private car. With the current influx of capital into mobility startups, cities have no difficulty in attracting new mobility service provides like bikesharing, car-sharing, or e-scooter-sharing. However, recent cases have shown that merely introducing a large number of different mobility services onto the streets is no guarantee for acceptance by the general public and, thus, for achieving the city’s mobility strategy goals especially as most providers provide a singular solution to parts of the journey, only. The key to success is the smart integration of the complementary mobility services into one platform, which allows travelers to access the entire mobility ecosystem within a city seamlessly. The level of integration ideally enables trip planning by providing real-time information, booking, and payment of all modes of transport from within a single app. The customer-centric system further enables users to create only one mobility account that grants access to mobility options for almost any occasion [4]. Lower levels of integration that only pro- PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS Public transport International Transportation | Collection 2020 32 vide information, but lack seamless booking functionality, fail to deliver a compelling state-of-the-art user experience of a holistic mobility ecosystem, thus creating friction. Travelers long for the ease of mind that the right mobility options are readily available in almost any situation at the tap of a finger. Only then will they consider switching from their private cars. To ensure that a convenient yet affordable mix of transport modes is readily available and accessible, public transit should constitute the core of a MaaS platform. Therefore, public stakeholders, such as the local public transit agency (PTA) or municipal entities, are prime candidates to assume the operational responsibility of a platform. Their neutrality creates a level playing field for all new mobility service providers joining the platform, grants policymakers access to data, creates trust amongst the general public, and ensures that the MaaS ecosystem works in the best interest of the citizen [5]. Moovel - who pioneered the concept of a full-fledged MaaS app already in 2012 - has provided many cities in Europe, Asia, and North America with the technology to operate MaaS solutions successfully [6]. One of the latest implementations was launched in late 2018 in Dusseldorf, Germany. With the “Mobil in Düsseldorf” app, local PTA Rheinbahn offers a one-stop-shop for urban mobility, including real-time information and ticketing for public transit, booking of car-sharing, bike-sharing, scooter-sharing, and taxihailing. Furthermore, to provide integrated last mile solutions for commuters from out of town, the app also reflects Park+Ride locations in the trip planning. The technology behind the easy-to-use, customer-centric MaaS app is localized to the specific requirements of the city and integrates with the local mobility service providers. moovel’s solution solves the complexities of operating a MaaS platform for the PTA by providing core operator services such as transaction management and CRM systems, driver license checks, or self-integration for 3rd party mobility service providers. Apart from providing citizens with integrated, seamless access to shared individual mobility services and public transit, thus creating significant pull effects to shifting mobility behavior away from private cars, digitalization can also aid traditional public transit to overcome its systemic weaknesses. By introducing DRPT, cities have the opportunity to control and learn from a type of mobility service that will be of greatest importance in the age of AVs - flexible ondemand mobility. Flexibilization - Bridging the gap between public mass transit and public individual transit In high-density urban areas, mass transit has been the most efficient form of mobility for decades and is likely to be in the era of AVs. However, while public transit has its strengths in moving large numbers of passengers on the main corridors, it has systemic weaknesses in lower-density areas or daytimes. Mainly bus services on fixed routes with fixed timetables face the dilemma of the economic necessity to adapt the service frequency to the low demand, effectively further diminishing demand and increasing the attractiveness of individual transportation options. In effect, they can neither satisfy the needs of passengers nor operators. Pre-digital DRPT services are operating in many locations globally, primarily in rural areas. Yet, many of these pre-digital services fail to deliver compelling user experience, characterized by low availability, long waiting times, extensive telephonebased booking periods, and the lack of cashfree payment options. Consequently, services suffer from low ridership, yet are expensive to operate for municipalities. New technologies allow overcoming these constrains and lift DRPT into the 21st century. Novel, digital demand-responsive transit services have mostly been introduced by private players with a business-to-consumer (B2C) business model. While these innovative on-demand mobility solutions can generally help cities increase the attractiveness of a car-light lifestyle, oftentimes, B2C services have been launched predominantly in high-density urban areas with usually high public transit service quality. Due to a lack of integration into the existing public transit offerings, they can pose a risk of cannibalizing public transit ridership instead of supporting it. Consequently, cities have adopted different strategies to address this situation ranging from prohibitive approaches via the means of strict regulation to the complete replacement of public transit with private DRT services. However, due to the apparent opportunities that on-demand mobility opens for upgrading public transit networks, a growing number of PTAs are considering introducing DRPT services. The main advantage from a city’s perspective is that DRPT can be positioned in accordance with the city’s overarching mobility strategy and planned precisely to supplement and not cannibalize the local public transit network while providing unprecedented convenience and flexibility to users. Considering the system characteristics of traditional public transit, DRPT is ideally suited as first/ last mile feeder service to the main corridors. By operating on a demandresponsive basis in lower demand areas and daytimes, DRPT helps channel dispersedly distributed passengers onto corridors on which large vehicles in high frequency can efficiently operate, thus further strengthening public transit in its systemic strengths. To ensure that DRPT is perceived as an integral part of the public transit system, deep integration of both is necessary. User acceptance can only be achieved if intermodal journeys combining public transit and DRPT are reliable and seamless. Stuttgarter Straßenbahnen (SSB) and Karlsruher Verkehrsverbund (KVV) are successfully offering DRPT services deeply integrated with existing mass public transit. • “SSB Flex” (figure 1) was launched in June 2018 by SSB in Stuttgart in three areas of Stuttgart to cater to different demands and target groups [7]. • “MyShuttle”, initiated by KVV in June 2019 [8], provides highly-flexible trans- Figure 1: Intermodal trips with DRPT and public transit in “SSB Flex” Public transport PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS International Transportation | Collection 2020 33 portation in the suburbs of Karlsruhe and is integrated into the regional MaaS platform “kvv.mobil”. The technology behind both services was provided by moovel and was specifically designed to meet the needs of PTAs, most importantly, seamless integration with public transit. Intermodal connections provide convenient on-demand shuttle services from the traveler’s doorstep to a nearby public transit hub. By utilizing various realtime data sources, the routing of the DRPT trip ensures a timely interchange with the fixed-route train or bus line. Integrated mobile ticketing with in-app payment enables passengers to change seamlessly from on-demand shuttle to traditional public transit without having to buy a separate ticket. Monthly and annual public transit passes are reflected in the price per trip as a discount to incentivize regular usage. Moovel’s white-label solution is distributed in the look and feel of the PTA, immediately creating a sense of trust for the citizens in the new the DRPT service. Key to the success of a DRPT service is a high availability to ensure short waiting times and reliable service quality. Ideally, DRPT is embedded into the city’s MaaS platform, such as “MyShuttle” integration in “kvv.mobil” to give travelers alternative mobility options in case of unavailability of on-demand shuttles - or when more individual modes are situationally preferred. Moovel’s modular system architecture gives PTAs the flexibility to do so. Laying the foundation today for AVs - DRPT integrated into the city’s MaaS platform AVs will radically change urban mobility. Boundaries between car-sharing, taxi, ridehailing, DRT, and public bus services will become increasingly blurry [9]. While the exact composition of the future mobility mix is yet to be determined and will presumably vary from city to city, this change will also strongly affect public transit. Even though the introduction of AVs onto city streets on a relevant scale will take time, the battle for control over the future urban mobility is being fought already today. B2Cfocused private players push new mobility services into cities in an attempt to grab a market share that will help them become dominant mobility provides in the shared autonomous future. Cities and their public transit agencies have the opportunity to shape their role in that future proactively. However, to do so, they need to start setting the course today by actively introducing new mobility services under their regime. By operating a publicly controlled MaaS platform, cities can engage in data-driven decision making to ensure that a healthy mix of mobility modes is provided that promotes the city’s future mobility strategy. The data that the platform generates can give cities an invaluable asset for understanding user behavior and how the mobility ecosystem needs to evolve in the future. Moovel provides cities with in-depth business intelligence analyses that help draw the right conclusions. Additional to a MaaS platform, PTAs also have an excellent opportunity to prepare for shared autonomous services by introducing driver-based DRPT services today. By operating an algorithm-based, smart ride-pooling solution today, PTAs can experiment with service designs to be prepared for the autonomous future. Therefore, today’s DRPT projects should not be evaluated only according to their performance and costs in presence, but also according to the strategic relevance for the future. By utilizing a technology that is designed to supplement public transit rather than compete with it and that gives PTAs full access to all data, moovel’s technology gives cities the chance to adapt their public mobility system in time to have adequate answers for the future urban mobility challenges. ■ REFERENCES [1] Merfeld, K., Wilhelms, M.-P., Henkel, S., Kreutzer, K. (2019): Carsharing with Shared Autonomous Vehicles: Uncovering Drivers, Barriers and Future Developments - A Four-Stage Delphi Study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 144, 66-81 [2] Juniper Research, moovel North America (2018): Exploring Mobilityas-a-Service (MaaS) - The New Era of Urban Mobility, Portland [3] Merfeld, K., Wilhelms, M.-P., Henkel, S. (2019): Being Driven Autonomously - A Qualitative Study to Elicit Consumers’ Overarching Motivational Structures. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 107, 229-247 [4] Duong, T., Ruoff, P., Buffat, M. (2018): Information or integration? Supporting multimodal travelling through mobility apps. Vienna [5] Arthur D. Little (2018): The Future of Mobility 3.0 - Reinventing mobility in the era of disruption and creativity [6] Foljanty, L. (2013): Multimodale Wegeplanung mit Smartphone- Apps, Verkehr+Technik, Berlin [7] Stuttgarter Straßenbahn AG (2018): SSB Flex: Unser Add-On zu Bus & Bahn. Online: www.ssb-ag.de/ kundeninformation/ ssb-flex [8] Karlsruher Verkehrsverbund GmbH (2018): KVV MyShuttle: Dein Abholer vom KVV. Online: www.kvv.de/ service/ angeboteaktionen/ myshuttle-ettlingen.html [9] Stocker, A., & Shaheen, S. (2018): Shared Automated Mobility: Early Exploration and Potential Impacts. In Road Vehicle Automation 4 (S. 125-139). Cham: Springer Lukas Foljanty, Senior Manager Smart Cities, moovel Group GmbH, Berlin (DE) lukas.foljanty@moovel.com Mark-Philipp Wilhelms, Dr. Manager Smart Cities, moovel Group GmbH, Berlin (DE) mark-philipp.wilhelms@moovel.com Figure 2: Today’s mobility innovations pave the way to shared autonomous services International Transportation | Collection 2020 34 PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS Sustainability Time for action The transport sector’s role in enhancing climate ambition Climate change, Paris Agreement, Policy Recommendations, Climate ambition, NDCs, Mitigation Without swift, ambitious action to reengineer the transport sector, it will be impossible to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. However, accessing relevant information on how to implement ambitious action often remains difficult for transport officials, especially in developing countries. Therefore, this article presents six recommendations for policymakers. They call for a paradigm shift, increased resilience, empowered cities, investments in multimodal hubs, increased freight efficiency and accelerated electrification. Marion Vieweg, Daniel Bongardt T his year, signatories to the Paris Agreement are expected to submit revised national action plans - known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This is a pivotal opportunity for ramping up commitments, as current pledges are insufficient to avert dangerous climate change. Beyond 2020, the next five years will be crucial for steering the sector towards zero-carbon transport. The commitments that were declared in NDCs submitted before 2020 need to be implemented now. For that, decisive action will be required. Furthermore, soon preparations will begin on the new round of NDC enhancements slated for 2025. This will provide countries with another opportunity to set more ambitious targets as they learn from their experiences and gain a better understanding of untapped potentials. NDCs need to “represent a progression and reflect its highest possible ambition” (see decision CMA/ 2019/ L.4 [1], paragraph 5 and 6). Dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be needed in the coming decades to keep global warming below 1.5 °C. If the next round of NDCs fails to outline the way to zero emissions - including a decarbonised transport sector - it will be impossible to stay below the 2 °C threshold, much less 1.5 °C. Indeed, based on the current level of commitment, global heating is on track towards 3 °C or more by the end of the century. While the power sector for example has already made strides towards decarbonisation, the transport sector remains a key source of concern, as vehicle emissions continue to rise in most countries. Without swift, ambitious action to reengineer the transport sector, it will be impossible to meet the 1.5°C objective. Yet beyond merely reducing emissions, we should harness this transformative moment to usher in a just, sustainable and safe transport system, one that contributes to meeting both the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the objectives of the Paris Agreement. We need to take more comprehensive climate action In recent years, transport sector experts have made great advances in increasing awareness of the ways in which transport can be made more sustainable. The global community is far better informed about where we stand in implementing climate action, which policy options exist, and the potential offered by different measures. However, officials who work in national departments for transport policy, particularly those in developing countries, often have a difficult time accessing relevant information or translating it into concrete measures. “Net decarbonization of the transport sector by 2050 is possible but will require an immediate and concerted turnaround of global policy action.” [2] Against this backdrop, we have conducted a detailed survey of existing transport-related roadmaps, calls for action, discussion papers and research findings, distilling them into six essential recommendations for policymakers and other officials working on climate action and ambition in the transport sector (see figure 1). As policymakers draft their upcoming NDC revisions, we hope they will heed these recommendations, which have been broadly formulated to allow adaptation to divergent national contexts. But even if these recommendations are not adopted directly in the NDC, they can help to guide meaningful activities. In addition to enabling emission reductions, the recommendations address various sustainable development challenges in the transport sector. Beyond fighting climate change, taking action in all six areas will thus help to reduce air pollution, noise and congestion, while also enhancing access to transport, road safety and the efficiency of the freight sector. 1. Shifting the paradigm towards zero-carbon targets for 2050 Moving away from the marginal reduction of emissions and towards the creation of a zero-carbon transport system by 2050 is essential for reaching global climate goals - and for making transport more equitable, sustainable and safe. We cannot rely on technologies that only reduce; we need a comprehensive approach to avoid, shift, improve and electrify. Decarbonisation targets should reflect this multifaceted approach. 2. Ensuring the resilience of transport systems Transport systems are vulnerable to climate change. Slow-onset impacts, such as sea level rise and increasing temperatures, as well as extreme climate events can disrupt services and destroy infrastructure. Governments need to ensure that all levels of transport planning develop resilient solutions to address the effects of a changing climate. 3. Empowering cities with national support The world’s population predominantly lives in urban areas. Accordingly, important aspects of the transport transformation will International Transportation | Collection 2020 35 Sustainability PRODUCTS & SOLUTIONS take place in cities. In many places, urban transport is associated with significant impairments to quality of life due to congestion, noise and poor air quality, among other factors. National policymakers must actively support cities in building sustainable urban transport systems. This will not only help decarbonise the transport sector; it will also improve the quality of urban life. 4. Investing in sustainable rail, inland shipping and multimodal hubs Investing in clean, efficient rail infrastructure and multimodal hubs will be essential for increasing the availability of mobility options while drastically reducing energy demand in long-distance passenger and freight transport. Combined with increased electrification and innovative zero-emission technologies for shared mobility, trucks and ships, these investments will enable cleaner, healthier and safer transport. Ideally, these investments should go hand-in-hand with the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies. 5. Enhancing efficiency in freight and logistics The movement of freight is essential for modern economies, but increasingly it also contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution and congestion, among other negative effects. Governments need to direct developments towards long-term sustainability and competitiveness, which also means reducing emissions in the sector. Currently, these issues are receiving too little attention. 6. Accelerating electrification with renewable energy The use of electric vehicles powered exclusively by renewable electricity is the most efficient way to decarbonise the transport sector. Electrification will also massively reduce air and noise pollution, and, when combined with shared mobility options, will substantially reduce overall system costs. In countries with relatively lower consumer purchasing power - such as Chile, China or India - the electrification of public transport and freight can start now, and higher private electric-vehicle ownership rates can be sought as a broader range of more affordable electric vehicles become available. The freight sector should become electric wherever possible and hydrogen or e-fuels should be used as needed to supplement electrification. Enhanced collaboration and good data will be key For these recommendations to take full effect, enhanced collaboration as well as a solid data inventory is key. National governments must work with all stakeholders to facilitate the deep transformation of the transport sector. Case studies on NDC development [3] have shown that collaboration in tandem with access to good data and analysis are key factors for success. Transforming transport will also require greater integration with the power sector. The NDC updating and revision process can be a catalysing moment that brings different levels of government, industry and civil society together, enabling the formulation of a common vision for the future. Once a vision has been elaborated, it should guide policy choices and investment decisions. Furthermore, action must be swift - significant change must be initiated no later than 2023 if complete decarbonisation is to occur by 2050. COP25 in Madrid called for more and more ambitious climate action. In the next few months, all countries will prepare for reviewing and enhancing their climate goals and submit their NDCs to the UNFCCC’s Registry. The Advancing Transport Climate Strategies Project, which is being carried out by GIZ and funded through the International Climate Initiative of the German Ministry of Environment (BMU), is supporting Transport Ministries in their process. In addition, we are currently developing a paper that explains the six recommendations highlighted above in more detail. This paper, which will be directed at policymakers and other transport sector actors in developing countries, will provide guidance on what needs to be achieved, highlight potential policy options, and identify the stakeholders who should be involved in the process. It is scheduled for release in early 2020. ■ REFERENCES [1] UN Climate Change Conference—December 2019: Chile Madrid Time for Action. Proposal by the President. Online: https: / / unfccc.int/ documents/ 204674 (Access: 13 Jan 2020) [2] Paris Process on Mobility and Climate: COP24 Key Transport Messages. Online: http: / / www.ppmc-transport.org/ cop24-transportkey-messages (Access: 13 Jan 2020) [3] Advancing Transport Climate Strategies Project: Transport in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Online: www.changing-transport.org/ publication/ transport-nationally-determinedcontributions (Access: 13 Jan 2020) Marion Vieweg Founder “Current Future”, Berlin (DE) marion.vieweg@current-future.org Daniel Bongardt Project Director, GIZ, Bonn (DE) daniel.bongardt@giz.de Figure 1: Six action recommendations for policymakers for enhancing climate ambition in transport Enhancing climate ambition: The upcoming NDC Transport Initiative and opportunities for Asian countries 29 Oct. 2019 Page 1 Ensuring the resilience of transport systems Empowering cities with national support Investing in sustainable rail, inland shipping and multimodal hubs Shifting the paradigm towards zero-carbon targets for 2050 1 Accelerating electrification with renewable energy Enhancing efficiency in freight and logistics Enhancing Climate Ambition in Transport 2 3 4 6 5 International Transportation | Collection 2020 36 Electrification of road freight transport Potentials and challenges of catenary guided systems for distribution system operators Electric road system, Distribution system operator, Catenary hybrid truck, Electrification scenario, Road freight transport electrification, Electric vehicle The intention of the European Union in mitigating emissions within the road freight transport sector is currently benefitting the general notion of electrification. Technological solutions like catenary hybrid trucks (CHT) are containing direct implications for the energy system. Therefore, the role of the distribution system operator (DSO), which primarily acts as a “fuel” supplier and integrator of systems within an existing system, is particularly noteworthy. To uncover its future systemic tasks it is necessary to determine the strategic potentials and challenges of catenary guided systems (CGS) for DSOs. Adrian Gunter T he intention of the European Union and its member states in mitigating emissions, which can be attributed to the road freight transport sector, is currently benefitting the general notion of electrification. Countries feel impelled to test electrified drive concepts in order to comply with climate targets set. The technolog- Innovative transport systems For the 15 th consecutive time the European Platform of Transport Sciences - EPTS - awards the “European Friedrich-List-Prize”. The prize, dedicated to young transport researchers, is named to honour the extraordinary contributions of Friedrich List, the visionary of transport in Europe of the 19th century, being a distinguished economist and respected transport scientist committed to the European idea. The European Friedrich-List-Prize is awarded for out-standing scientific papers in each of the categories Doctorate paper and Diploma paper, addressing topics in the transport field within a European context. In 2020 in total 12 scientific works have been nominated and evaluated. The award will be conferred during the 18th European Transport Congress in Rostock, Germany, on 13 October 2020. In the following you find a random selection of this year’s submissions summarized in drafts. Rostock Photo: Julia Boldt/ pixabay SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 37 ical options for transport electrification, which are macroeconomically feasible and cope with new and existing regulations, e.g. (EU) 2019/ 1242, are yet to be finally determined. Due to their high energy demand, electric high-duty vehicles such as long-haul trucks may require another source of energy beyond batteries. This could be achieved with range extenders or roadside (catenary) solutions for continuous charging, as it is currently demonstrated in so-called Electric Road Systems (ERS) in countries like Sweden, Italy, and Germany. The roadside electrification of the road-freight transport sector via catenary hybrid trucks (CHT) - conductive power transfer through an overhead line-infrastructure (OL-I) extended with an internal combustion engine, battery storage, or fuel cell - contains direct implications for the energy system. In the interaction between the transport and energy sectors, the role of the distribution system operator (DSO) is particularly noteworthy. At the present stage, DSOs can already be perceived as a centric institution for the distribution of “fuels” for private battery electric vehicles (BEVs), as well as their integration into the existing distribution network structure. Concerning the application of a catenary guided system (CGS), however, the identification of load-based implications, the development and dimensioning of grid infrastructures, as well as the integration of mobile loads have yet not been fully covered. Furthermore, the structural parameters and regulatory conditions, which are crucial for the precise definition of the market design and the associated roles of actors, are not ultimately defined. Objective Until now, the evaluation of the CGS within studies is predominantly directed towards economical, ecological, and technical assessments of CHTs in comparison with its technological alternatives. Existing energy-economic evaluations of CGS are primarily based on key figures such as additional energy consumption, load profiles, and regional distribution of loads. However, there are currently no dedicated studies regarding the direct implications of a CGS for DSOs, which are assessing the associated strategic potentials and challenges. Accordingly, the leading question was investigated: Which factors in a catenary guided environment are relevant to establish scenarios in order to determine the strategic potentials and challenges for DSOs with horizon 2030? Methods The classification of a CGS within the sphere of DSOs was based on the findings of extensive literature research, compared and reassessed with the appraisals of governmental and non-governmental representatives of the German energy sector within the technical, regulatory, and commercial departments. Specifically, a three-stage procedure was pursued to determine relevant factors with a political and regulatory, economic, and technological scope. In Stage 1) “Data sources and data collection”, primary and secondary data were collected in the form of literature research, expert interviews, and discussion groups. Altogether, 17 interviews were conducted, which were deductively and inductively categorized and qualitatively und quantitively classified with the MAXQDA software. The gathered potential influencing factors were deductively attributed to socio-ecological, technical, economic, and political (STEP) perspectives and further reduced to relevant influencing factors via an internal factor assessment. In Stage 2) “Development of scenarios”, the further reduction of influencing factors into key factors was based on the application of an influence matrix, enabling their deductive categorization into superordinate categories. Subsequently, a delimitation and attribution of associated descriptors (characterization of key factors) and quantitative development paths (meta-analysis) were made. Based on the identified key factors, descrip- Figure 1: Categorization of the identified key factors and their descriptors Source: own visualization SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize International Transportation | Collection 2020 38 tors, and development paths, four heterogeneous scenarios were developed. In Stage 3) “Evaluation of the scenarios”, the different scenarios were compared and individually assessed based on a four-step procedure, comprising entrepreneurial evaluation and normative characterization methods. Results In the following, references are made to the findings that have been obtained in the course of empirical research and the analysis of the scenarios. Findings of the empirical research In absolute numbers, 32 potential influencing factors were identified, which have allowed a preliminary quantitative assessment. Accordingly, the political-regulatory aspects were highly relevant, accounting for 63 %. This can be explained by the fact that the technical (19 %) and economic (18 %) factors - regarding CGS - are subject to strong influences, combining merely minor implications (active/ passive ratio) on superordinated aspects. Through the application of a strategic early warning indicator system for DSOs, the number of factors could be further reduced to 20. In the further development process, 13 key factors were identified and assigned to the existing categories, allowing the development of four different scenarios and their key differentiators (parentheses), which are outlined in figure 1. Surrounding factors and external factors are reflecting the political and regulatory objectives, which are connected to the controlled implementation of energy transformation measures. The electrification of longhaul traffic, so far, has been influenced or even dominated by political and regulatory factors. With a high quantity, the German government’s climate targets were named as the decisive key factor. In this connection, the associated structural implications in the context of the energy industry and its potential of influence as well as the digitalization of the energy system in the context of network-related services were highlighted. Also, the acceptance for infrastructure projects was underlined, which should be communicated as a leverage effect to reduce emissions. Therefore, policy measures such as CO 2 -pricing or funding regimes (financing of OL-I) were identified as necessary instruments, mainly due to their regulating characteristics, as well as the influence on the ramp-up of electrified passenger and road-freight vehicles, which in return are crucial in raising the potentials of energy efficiency in the transport sector. Consuming factors were primarily identified based on developments in the areas of technology, volume, and structure of transport, as well as energy efficiency. Subsequently, the originating efficiency targets for the transport sector were regarded as essential to reduce the increased traffic volume and structure and thus the demand for conventional primary energy sources. Producing factors, which are based on the energy transition objectives and the regulatory frameworks, are considering the structures and capacities of renewable and conventional powerplants, as well as the development of storage technologies. Findings of the scenario analysis The adoption of the aforementioned factors and their translation into scenarios allows the identification of potentials and challenges for DSOs, which are explained in table 1. In the assessment of the scenarios, it was found that the potentials for regulated DSOs in the current market run-up (cf. Reference Scenario 2030) are severely limited by political and regulatory factors. This can be substantiated with the currently undetermined market design - regulated or market-based - the specification of operator models, the absence of dedicated billing models, and the associated financial structures of the OL-I, as well as the strong focus on battery-electric trucks. In this respect, the potential for DSOs can be identified in the acquisition of knowledge in the framework of closed projects, due to state-side financing and subsidies for the Photo: Siemens Mobility European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 39 Scenarios Potentials Challenges Reference Scenario 2030 • Risk-free acquisition (financial) of competences in the field of technical management (maintenance, inspection) of OL-I • Practical investigation of load effects on the upstream network infrastructure and integration into network operation management • Continuing regulatory uncertainties regarding the type of network (currently customer installation), lack of technical standards • New technology field (OL-I) requires the acquisition of competence (workload of employees) Conservative Scenario 2030 • Transfer of gained knowledge (planning and consulting) from pilot projects to OL-I projects in other relevant European countries (e.g., Italy, Hungary or Poland) • Loss of systemic relevance to upstream grid operators (TSOs) due to stagnating RES expansion, loss of conventional power plant capacities and the procurement of services on the European capacity market Compliance Scenario 2030 • Extension of the technical management by commercial aspects (measurement and billing) as a service provider • Development of the service sector (establishment of OL-I) • The high commitment of human and financial resources with high financial risk (advance payment for the development of OL-I) • Planning, approval and acceptance risks; availability of operating resources (substations, etc.) Decarbonization Scenario 2030 • Acquisition of new concessions in the form of OL-I (compensation for expiring ones); expansion of the existing business area • Financing security through the application of the grid usage fee system (interest on capital employed) • New requirements for the integrated network planning of OL-I and the upstream distribution network • High investment and operating costs; submission to the regulatory regime (disclosure, cost review, etc.) Table 1: Potentials and challenges of the analyzed scenarios provision of services for the upstream infrastructure. Furthermore, the measurement of load and travel profiles could provide insights to DSOs, on how future grid expansions are to be dimensioned and planned accordingly. In principle, the existing capability profile can be used within this framework, which creates room for comprehensive integration of CGS into the network operation and management. In the context of a politically motivated market rampup of OL-I (cf. Decarbonization Scenario 2030), the participatory framework for DSOs would redefine itself. This is because the OL-I operator would then be determined in a bidding procedure based on tenders (marketbased) or in the form of a concession (regulated). Potentials would arise here primarily for the regulated area, which could operate outside its traditional network area with the construction and operation of OL-I. Nevertheless, regulatory authorities would have to decide on the legal form of the OL-I to determine the general framework and, therefore, its refinancing instruments. As an example, network fees could be mentioned here: It should be discussed whether higher returns can be generated from the participation in OL-I than in the existing network business so that the regulated DSO can operate in an economically sensible manner. Challenges can be identified in high leading times for system relevant infrastructure components, like transformer substations, limiting the possibility to react adequately to the ramp-up of OL-I. In this respect, integrated planning will be indispensable, which will potentially lead to a new and possibly greater complexity in the process of network planning. Accordingly, increased CAPEX and OPEX of OL-I and network infrastructure must be considered, which must be disclosed to regulators (publication of network charges) with the obligation to raise efficiencies. On this basis, there are risks in determining the right network charges to work cost-efficiently, but also to make the system interesting for consumers (CHTs). The lack of experience in measuring and billing of mobile loads, amplified by the division of the measuring mode (substation and CHT), are further increasing the complexity of reporting obligations to upstream network operators. Furthermore, it can be assumed that with the establishment of the infrastructure, a new focus will be put on the operators of infrastructures, as these are now daily visible in the form of OL-I. Conclusion In conclusion, it can be stated that the Decarbonization Scenario 2030 offers by far the highest potentials but also the highest challenges for DSOs. In the interest of the technological ramp-up, the economic compatibility, and the high level of complexity currently associated, it would be advisable to refrain from doing so at this stage. Within current pilot projects, DSOs might rather focus on the intelligence of the future OL-I and its control possibilities, which is strongly dependent on the regulatory framework, the degree of digitization, and social acceptance. For a realistic conclusion, the application of realistic operating phases is necessary to make the effects measurable outside the methodology. In the process of a further analysis, an extended cost analysis would have to be carried out, taking the individual threshold values and calculation rates into account. Nevertheless, the identified factors can form a common basis for European distribution system operators - as common European rules are in effect - thus allowing the framework of the scenarios to be adapted to individual conditions. ■ Adrian Gunter Student, Nuertingen-Geislingen University (HfWU), Nuertingen (DE) adrian_gunter@t-online.de SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize International Transportation | Collection 2020 40 Costs of operational hindrances Reduction of railway system costs by means of a holistic approach Railways, Infrastructure, Operation, System view In a globalized world mobility is a necessity for economic growth and a satisfied population. There are different possible transport modes, each with advantages and disadvantages compared to the others. The railway system stands for environmentally friendly transport for goods and passengers. To achieve future environmental requirements, it is necessary to maximise the performance of the railway system in a micro-economic term. A good way to ensure this is to reduce costs by finding a global cost optimum for the whole railway sector by assessing infrastructure and operational costs together. Markus Loidolt A consideration of all system costs of the railway system also includes the costs arising from unavailability. To assess the costs of unavailability it is necessary to include costs of all organizations involved. Looking at the organizational structure of a completely liberalised railway system, there are at least three large players [1]: The infrastructure manager (IM), railway undertakings for passengers (RU Passenger) and railway undertakings for freights (RU freight). Almost all additional costs of unavailability, such as additional operating costs, negative market reactions and penalties, are borne by the railway undertakings, the IM has hardly any additional costs to bear. Unfortunately, there are many scenarios in which the IM causes operational disruptions, but the subsequent costs must be borne by the RU. In this case, the costs of unavailability are external costs for the originator. Without any further regulations there are no incentives for the IM to reduce these costs, because doing so means higher costs for the own organization. Considering the total system costs, however, a cost optimization can only be achieved, if the IM includes external costs in its planning activities. As an illustrative example, the interactions between maintenance and permanent slow orders: One goal of an IM is to keep the costs of maintenance as low as possible. In a liberalized railway system and the resulting separate budget situation, the IM has the opportunity to save maintenance money by simply not carrying out maintenance tasks. The consequential costs, for example a disturbed railway operation due to permanent slow orders, must be borne by the RUs and are therefore outside the IMs budget. However, in the system’s view this leads to significantly higher costs, as the additional operational costs exceed the “savings” in maintenance. In extreme cases, the railway loses its justification for existence, weakened by permanent slow orders. Taking the costs of non-availability into account, ÖBB evaluated on strategic level that permanent slow orders are not a system compliant option, at least for the core network. [2] To guarantee the consideration of the costs of unavailability into the decision process of the IM, two conditions must be met: 1. Costs of unavailability must be assessed and monetised and 2. The costs must be included in the IM cash flow. Monetised costs of unavailability With the calculation scheme for costs of operational hindrances (CoH) [2], a tried and tested evaluation model for unavailability costs already exists at ÖBB. This is used for the development of strategies (speed restrictions, length of construction section, day work vs. night work, etc.) [3]. Table 1 is showing all negative cost effects that are included in the CoH system and the respective monetary valuation. Since the system has been in use since the 1990s (the underlying cost rates are updated annually), it can be considered stable. However, some boundary conditions have changed since the implementation, these should be integrated into the system as an update. For example, energy charging for trains in Austria has changed considerably since then. Soon, energy charging will be sharp for all trains, which means that the energy actually consumed is/ will be charged (in the 1990s, energy was charged at average cost rates). This kind of energy calculation means that a change in driving characteristics due to disturbances (e.g. slow orders) has a direct impact on the energy costs of the train ride. So, because of the new energy charging scheme, the energy consumption should be separately included into CoH for a more accurate cost representation. Nevertheless, the actual CoH- Positions considered Monetary evaluation delays and follow up delays • variable staff costs • variable costs of rolling stock - time based train rerouting • variable staff costs • variable costs of rolling stock additional trains • full costs of train operaton (without dep.) addtiional bus services • full costs of bus operaton (without dep.) additional shunting costs • variable staff costs additional operating costs • variable staff costs cancelling of trains • abolition of variable train costs • train parking costs negatibe market reaction • less customers, fee-repayments other costs • specifics Table 1: Negative cost effects included in the CoH system and the respective monetary valuation European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 41 system is a cost-based model to assess unavailability at a reasonable cost level. The unavailability can therefore be assessed in monetary terms. However, for these costs to be considered in day-to-day planning activities, they must be included in the IMs cash flow. Otherwise they are dismissed as nonexpenditure costs, which is understandable from the point of view of the IM. However, from a system perspective, these costs must be taken into account, so that the costs of the railway system, and not just the costs of the IM, can be optimised. Performance Regime In order to make the railway system more attractive, the EU laid the legal basis for the performance regime (PR) with Article 11 in Directive 2001/ 14/ EC and Article 35 in Directive 2012/ 34/ EC. Quote from Article 35(1) of Directive 2012/ 34/ EC [4]: “Infrastructure charging schemes shall encourage railway undertakings and the infrastructure manager to minimise disruption and improve the performance of the railway network through a performance scheme. This scheme may include penalties for actions which disrupt the operation of the network, compensation for undertakings which suffer from disruption and bonuses that reward better-than-planned performance.” This EU directive must be transposed into national law by all member states of the European Union. The basic principle of the performance regime can be summarised as “organizations causing delays must pay penalties” and/ or “organizations that perform well receive discounts”. The infrastructure usage fee is used for billing. As in a liberalised railway system Track Access Charges (TACs) are the only link between IMs and RUs, the PR could be more than just an incentive for punctuality, but also a planning tool for the IM, leading to decisions that suit the system best. However, this only applies, if the cost rates of the performance regime are cost-based and not fixed for political reasons. As described above, CoH are exactly such cost-based cost rates. A comparison of the monetary evaluation of delay minutes of different PRs of the member states with ÖBB’s CoH, carried out in the course of the master thesis “Costs of Operational Hindrances”, leads to two conclusions: 1. There are big differences regarding the cost levels of the different PRs 2. The cost level of CoH is very well in line with the trend of PRs. While some IMs seem to have calibrated their PRs very well and have integrated the costs actually incurred by delays as a cost rate for evaluation (the extent to which this allocation has actually taken place is another matter), other schemes have obviously integrated cost rates according to political or any other interests. If the cost rates are too low, the incentive for punctuality is hardly achieved; as a planning tool for IM, PR is definitely not suitable in this case. The consequences of cost-based cost rates Since the majority of the monetary consequences of unavailability are borne by the RU, while the IM has hardly any additional costs, a common cost rate for both parties is not plausible. Rather, a cost-based definition must lead to two different cost rates, a very low one for the RU and a higher rate for the IM. If the IM causes a delay for example, it needs to compensate the additional expenses of the RU (high cost rates). If a RU causes a delay, it must bear most of the consequential costs anyway, in addition it must compensate the low additional costs of the IM (low cost rates). Additional arrangements must be made, if one RU is to blame for the delays of another RU. It is possible for the IM and RU to cancel the contract, as they are in a contractual relationship through the infrastructure usage charge. However, two independent RUs do not necessary share a common contractual basis. In order to counteract this problem, the idea of the so-called “star model” [5] was presented in one European state. This can serve as a model for other states. In the schematic model shown in figure 1, the IM, as the only party guaranteed to have a contractual relationship with all RUs, acts as an intermediary. The IM increases the costs for the RU1 causing the delay by the consequential costs of the additional operational expenditure of RU2, RU3 and RU4. This is calculated from the cost rates, which are generally charged, if the IM is at fault, as the RUs concerned also must bear these high consequential costs. The TACs of the RUs concerned will be reduced in total by the additional amount paid by RU1 as penalty payment. This means that the IM does not incur any costs nor is there an increase in budget. Summary In order to meet future requirements in both mobility and environmental terms, it is necessary to minimise the costs of the railway system and thus strengthen the position of the sector. Savings, such as investments in lower quality components or postponing maintenance measures, are only a short-sighted solution, which ultimately lead to higher costs. A far more sustainable method is to find a global cost optimum between infrastructure and operating costs by considering both cost positions when making decisions, which requires a monetary assessment of unavailability. The CoH calculation scheme acts as a cost-based model for this assessment. Using the calculation scheme developed in 2006 by the Institute for Railway and Transport Economics in cooperation with the Austrian Federal Railways, the costs resulting from Figure 1: The idea of the so-called “star model” [5] SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize International Transportation | Collection 2020 42 operational consequences can be calculated in dependence of the train type. For these costs to be considered in planning activities, they must also appear in the cash flow of the planning organization and not just disappear in a vacuum as so-called non-output-related costs. Even if these costs often occur in another organization, they form a relevant cost position and thus weaken the railway system. The performance regime, introduced by the EU legislation to reduce delays, is one way of capturing the costs of unavailability and can therefore be a planning tool for proper decisions. However, this planning tool only leads to system compliant decisions, if the rates meet the occurring costs in average. This condition can be fulfilled with CoH. They can serve as a good basis for a performance regime that provides incentives that benefit the railway system. Since an actual implementation of the presented concept leads to lower overall costs in the railway system, but increases the expenditure of the IM, an implementation can only go along with changes in the financing of the railway system. ■ REFERENCES [1] Marschnig, St. (2016): iTAC - innovative Track Access Charges, Graz University of Technology [2] ÖVG Band 55 - Spezial, Fahrweginstandhaltung auf Basis von Life-Cycle-Cost Berechnungen, 2002/ 08 [2] Veit, P.; Petri, K. (2008): Betriebserschwerniskosten - ein Baustein zur Systemoptimierung; ZEVrail Heft 5 [3] Marschnig, St.; Veit, P. (2010): Optimierte Einheitskosten - Sperrpausendauer und Baustellenlänge; ZEVrail Heft 10 [4] Directive 2012/ 34/ EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of the European Union; Official Journal of the European Union - 21. November 2012 [5] Office of Rail and Road, Performance Regime, April 2019 Markus Loidolt, Dipl.-Ing University Project Assistant, Institute of Railway Engineering and Transport Economy, Graz University of Technology, Graz (AT) markus.loidolt@tugraz.at Network traffic anomaly detection in IoT IoT, DDoS, Network anomaly, Machine learning, Logitboost, Cybersecurity The development of a public, packet-oriented communication network (Internet network), accompanied by an increase in the number of users and information and communication (IC) services, has also increased the amount of data transferred. Data stored, processed, and transmitted through the IC system is often the target of illegitimate users whose goal is to gain unauthorized access or to prevent legitimate users from accessing IC system resources. This results in an increase in the need for research in the field of IC protection in recent decades. Ivan Cvitić T he goal of protecting an IC system is to achieve and maintain the required level of basic security principles. The basic principles of security are presented by the CIA model, which embraces the integrity, confidentiality, and availability of IC resources. The availability principle is defined as the probability that the requested service (or other IC system resource) will be available to a legitimate user at the required time. There are several factors to impact the availability of IC resources negatively. They can be classified according to the source of these factors with the steadily increasing trend over the last ten years is network-oriented Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack, or DDoS traffic as a means of conducting attacks and generating network traffic anomaly. Network traffic anomaly detection is a dynamic and broad area of research. Any network traffic pattern that deviates from the sample of a previously defined profile of legitimate (normal) traffic and has the potential to disrupt the normal operation of the IC is considered an anomaly. The legitimate traffic profile is defined by the values of traffic features recorded over a period of time in which the traffic generating terminal device is not security compromised and operates in the manner defined by the manufacturer. The root causes of network traffic anomalies may be related to performance or IC system security. One of the growing causes of securityrelated network traffic anomalies is DDoS attacks. This type of attack utilizes a number of compromised terminal devices to generate legitimate, DDoS traffic to the destination. The consequences of DDoS attacks are the degradation of quality or complete unavailability of IC services to legitimate users. The emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) concept as a new direction of technological development and a new communication paradigm that brings together billions of new devices connected to the Internet, creates a new space of security vulnerabilities that can be exploited for unauthorized and malicious activities. The continuous growth in the number of such devices, their inadequate protection and the ability to generate traffic on the network, makes them ideal candidates for the creation of a botnet network to generate DDoS traffic of unprecedented traffic intensity. The concept of a smart home as one of the fastest-growing application areas of European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 43 the IoT concept is becoming one of the most heterogeneous application areas in terms of the number of IoT devices manufacturers. Such devices are often delivered with minimal or no protection, and their security is also reduced by the ease of use required by end-users. Those users often do not have the adequate level of knowledge required to install and operate such devices. All of the above listed smart home devices are among the most vulnerable to many security threats, emphasizing the use of such devices to generate DDoS traffic. The concept of IoT offers numerous benefits in different fields of application, but from the point of security view, it also highlights many challenges that need to be adequately addressed. Research within this doctoral thesis considers the smart home environment as one of the fastest-growing application areas within the IoT concept. Devices within this environment have many limitations and disadvantages that make them potential generators of DDoS traffic. According to predictions, by the end of 2020, approximately 31 billion IoT devices will exist globally, and 75 billion till 2025. In this case, 41 %, or 12.86 billion IoT devices will be installed within the concept of a smart home (SH). The limitations of IoT devices in general, and thus SHIoT (smart home IoT) devices, are described in the previous researches, covering hardware constraints, high autonomy requirements, and low cost of production, which reduces the ability to implement advanced security methods and increases the risk of numerous threats. Traffic generated by SHIoT devices or MTC (Machine Type Communication) traffic is different from traffic generated through conventional devices, HTC (Human Type Communication) traffic. Although SHIoT devices are characterized by heterogeneity, MTC traffic is homogeneous in contrast to HTC traffic, which means that devices of the same or similar purpose behave approximately equally, that is, generate traffic of similar characteristics. The identified shortcomings of previous research, such as taking into account of SHIoT traffic features when detecting DDoS traffic, the consideration of classes of SHIoT devices that generate roughly equal values of traffic features, and the number of devices used in the study, will be sought to be remedied by planned research. The importance of this research is also evident through the increasing number of research and projects in this field. An example of this is the project called Mitigating IoT-Based Distributed Denial Of Service (DDoS), implemented by NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and NCCoE (National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence), which addresses the issue of generating DDoS traffic through an IoT device. Trough research within this doctoral thesis, the laboratory environment of the smart home was formed and shown in figure 1. Such an environment is comprised of a variety of SHIoT devices, along with an accompanying communications infrastructure and softwarehardware platform that enables traffic collection and data set to be applied in later stages of research and development of network traffic anomaly detection models. In addition to the primary data collected through the process described above, the research also included secondary data, encompassing a greater variety of SHIoT devices. The reason for this is the heterogeneity of devices that can exist in the observed environment. A total of 41 devices in a smart home environment were used for this doctoral research. According to statistics, there are differences in the estimation of the average Figure 1: Smart home laboratory environment SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize International Transportation | Collection 2020 44 number of SHIoT devices per household that has a certain form of smart home implemented. These estimates range from 6.53 to 14 SHoT devices per household. In the Republic of Croatia, smart home representation is still low, and telecom operators are assuming the role of smart home providers through the offering of end-user SHIoT devices. For example, Iskon Internet service provider offers customers the option of purchasing a smart home package that makes four SHIoT devices, while telecom operator A1 provides users with the ability to deploy a total of five SHIoT devices in a smart home environment. Despite mentioned, this research sought to achieve the greatest possible variety of SHIoT devices due to the need to define device classes based on the characteristics of the traffic generated. Therefore, the number of devices used is higher than the current statistical estimate of the average value of SHIoT devices per smart home in the Republic of Croatia and worldwide. The work of the developed model of detection of illegitimate DDoS traffic takes place in two stages. The first phase is a prerequisite for the later detection of DDoS traffic in the second phase of operation and implies the classification of the SHIoT device based on the generated traffic flow. One of the basic metrics that indicate model performance is classification accuracy and kappa statistics. According to the classification accuracy, all models show high performance, which means that based on the observed flow, they can determine with high accuracy whether the traffic flow is the result of legitimate device communication or the device generates DDoS traffic. Research has shown that it is possible to define device classes based on the variation of the received and sent traffic ratio, and it is possible to classify devices into defined classes based on the traffic flow features such devices generate. Finally, depending on the affiliation of an individual device to a defined class, it is possible to determine whether the traffic flow that the device generates is an anomaly in the form of DDoS traffic or legitimate traffic. The research carried within this doctoral dissertation is of significant importance for the development of the research area since it considers the challenges of the fastgrowing and omnipresent IoT concept. This concept represents a new paradigm of the application of information and communication technologies and services where the devices in such an environment may become generators of network traffic anomalies and cyber-attacks. Previous research very rarely took into consideration such an environment during the research of network traffic anomalies detection in spite of the fact that the cyber-attack generators, such as DDoS, in the last five years have been the devices under the IoT concept. Accordingly, the focus of network traffic anomalies detection research in the IoT concept represents an important step also for future research of this area and highlighting the importance of anomalies detection in such an environment, which is showing a strong growing tendency. The possibility of applying the results of this research in practice is seen from the aspect of several stakeholders such as the end-user, Internet service provider (telecom operator) and device manufacturer, and service provider in smart IoT environments. From the aspect of the user as a smart home stakeholder, the need is emphasized for the devices to function in the way planned by the manufacturer, i.e., that all the device functionalities are available in the requested time. The generation of DDoS traffic can also cause unplanned behavior of the device that generates such traffic, which may reduce its functionalities or make the device fully inaccessible. Therefore, it is in the interest of the user to make timely detection of the unwanted behavior of the device, which enables activities that follow the detection. The generation of DDoS traffic by means of a large number of IoT devices in the smart home environment may negatively impact also the network and the server infrastructure of the telecom operator. Since telecom operators are often also the smart home service providers, it is in their interest to timely detect unauthorized behavior of the device in order to protect their own network infrastructure. The manufacturers of such devices have to ensure proper operation of the devices in order to increase the satisfaction of the users and the market expansion. They will ensure this by timely detection of the unauthorized operation of the device that will make it possible for them to respond to the unwanted events and to ensure the desired level of user satisfaction. ■ Ivan Cvitić, Ph.D. Assistant, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Department of Information and Communication Traffic, University of Zagreb (HR) ivan.cvitic@fpz.unizg.hr INFRA FORUM ’20 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ON ERTMS 28 & 29 OCTOBER 2020 VIRTUAL CONFERENCE EVENTS.RAILTECH.COM European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 45 Innovative transport systems and mobility services Integrating autonomous vehicles into the public transport system Altering transport system, Autonomous vehicle, Integration, Mobility service, System engineering The developments of infocommunication and vehicle technology have altered the passenger transport system and given way to the emergence of innovative mobility services. During a Ph.D. research, the author focused on this alteration. The altering transport system, the planning and operational processes of new mobility services, the impacts of mobility services based on autonomous vehicles, as well as the automation opportunities of planning and operational functions were examined from the viewpoint of transportation engineering. Dávid Földes T echnical innovations, such as automation, have facilitated sustainable mobility developments (e.g. transitional mobility services, such as car-sharing, which blur the borderlines between private and public transport). The objective of such developments is the efficient management of resources as well as complying with user preferences. Automation can enhance operational efficiency and traveller’s comfort. An automated system operates on clearly defined algorithms; an autonomous system is able to make decisions using its cognitive and self-learning abilities. As a result of technological developments, a smart mobility system can be introduced, which combines human knowledge, intelligence, and decision-making processes. Data and information have become key to decision-making. Consequently, the transport system can be considered as a special information system. A systematic revealing of elements and connections is required. Studies in automation focus on the control and traffic issues of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) [1]. However, passenger handling, operation, and maintenance can also be automatized [2]. Placing AVs into a wider-approach within the passenger transport system has moderately been emphasized so far. Albeit transport modes are altering, new methods are required for planning, organizing and operating transport. A new type of mobility service based on small capacity AVs emerges, which is shared, on-demand and accessible only with advance ordering via a mobile application [3, 4]. Mobility becomes more and more a pre-planned activity requiring proactiveness from the travellers. Human skills, the traveller’s decision-making processes, and behaviour are also altering. Accordingly, the development of innovative information management methods and services supporting decisionmaking is required. Therefore, the objectives of the research were to model AV-based transport systems on an urban scale, as well as mobility and information services, moreover, to elaborate system planning principles and evaluation methods. The focus was placed both on the operation and the traveller. Since the object of transport is the traveller, revealing expectations towards new mobility services is especially important. If the travellers’ expectations are met, the adoption of new technology can be enhanced. This summary briefly summarizes the most relevant results of the research, namely the model of smart mobility, the alteration in mobility services, the information system model for the planning and operation of AVbased services and the complex automation levels. Methods The methods applied during the research are as follows. A special method for analysing and modelling information systems was developed and implemented, which reveals structural and operational relationships in different resolutions (break-ups). Furthermore, relational data modelling was used for the elaboration of the database structure for the operation of AV-based mobility service. Multicriteria analysis, which is appropriate for complex systems, was used to model the smart mobility system. Weighted Sum Model was applied to determine automation levels. In order to obtain the right conclusions about the expectations towards AV-based mobility service, preferences were collected by a questionnaire survey. The connections between data groups were examined to determine the impact of each data group on each other. Both deductive and inductive logic was applied to draw conclusions. Results Smart mobility New transport-related developments should be integrated into a system. This is called smart mobility, which is a decisive sub-system of the smart city; it realizes physical relationships between other sub-systems. It includes human knowledge, intelligence and a mechanism of decision-making applying information and communication technologies cooperating in transport infrastructure, in vehicles, and by travellers. The smart traveller is one of the smart mobility sub-systems and covers pedestrians, bikers, passengers and drivers as well. The structural and operational model of the smart mobility system focusing on the information management of the traveller was defined. The author found that the information management of a machine and a human are sim- SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize International Transportation | Collection 2020 46 ilar. The machine system can be developed according to the revealed attributes of human information management. Consequently, information management can be supported and even replaced by an adapted info-communication technology. Alteration in mobility services Based on the literature review and situation analysis, the author identified the alteration in transport modes (see in figure 1). The envisioned future modes were depicted in terms of the number of passengers per vehicle and flexibility. Flexibility is a complex indicator depending on several aspects (e.g. spatial accessibility). Transitional transport modes and, even more, the majority of private car use can be replaced by a shared, on-demand mobility service based on small capacity AVs accessible only with advance ordering via a mobile application. The types and the characteristics of this service were defined. Among others, a rather flexible door-to-door type and a slightly less flexible feeder type linked to a high capacity line were also distinguished. The feeder type may run on a fix route or according to a fix timetable. As the capacity of the built infrastructure is limited, travel demands can be served efficiently by shared and feeder mobility services. As AV-based mobility services are in an initial phase, the research elaborated on the structural and operational model of shared AV. The conclusion of the subresearch is that autonomy is a relative concept, since the coordination of several centres with different functions is required to plan, control and operate AV-based mobility services. That is why the integrated mobility management centre organizational unit was introduced with its defined tasks (e.g. management of operational data in an integrated database). There are several expected impacts of shared AV; the impact fields were identified, and a model was developed to calculate the alteration in modal share. Stated preferences are used as input data by the model. It was found that private car use could be significantly reduced by the introduction of a flexible, shared, AV-based mobility service. Planning and operation of AV-based mobility services The planning and operation of shared AV require new methods. The aspects that cause alteration in conventional methods are as follows: • more complex system structure, • new and unknown technology, • dynamism of the data and • travellers’ expectations towards more adaptive and sustainable service. Travelers should also perform existing tasks in a novel way or should solve new tasks as well (e.g. ordering, boarding, payment). The role of personnel is reduced, and the driver’s requirement can be ignored. New solutions are to be applied both in operation (e.g. charging) and in passenger handling (e.g. information provision). Functions with major alterations are realtime demand-capacity assignment, vehicle run planning, customized information services and vehicle charging. The information system model was defined for the planning and operation of shared AV. Considering travellers’ expectations is particularly important as the developments of such services are at an early stage. Accordingly, to define the model, the author determined the input data groups resulted from preferences and elaborated on the data collection method (questionnaire survey). It was found that travellers’ socio-demographic and mobility habits influence expectations towards the mobility service based on AVs. Automation levels The calculation method of complex automation levels was determined for road-based mobility services. Control functions, service planning and management, as well as passenger-handling functions were considered. Four levels of automation were distinguished. Applying the method, the automation level of a mobility service can be described in a general and simplified way using only one value (table 1). Figure 1: Alteration in transport modes o. name description the entity which makes decisions and executes 1 automation All processes are executed by humans. The human has full responsibility, there is no direct machine support. human 2 machine assistance Decision-making is supported by the machine. However, the role of a human is significant. human aided by machine 3 partial automation A significant part of the processes is executed by the machine. The personnel monitor the processes. mostly machine with human confirmation 4 full automation Processes are completely operated by the machine. The personnel attend only as a supervisor machine Table 1: Complex automation levels European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 47 Automation impacts on the required human abilities. To determine the aggregated ability alteration, an assessment method was developed. The method considers every sub-function for the entire ride. It was found that the required human cognitive capability, all in all, decreases significantly as the consequence of automation and machine support, whereas requirements towards human abilities related to smartphone use rise. Conclusion The main contributions of this research were the developed models of smart mobility. Moreover, it was revealed and analysed the characteristics of smart traveller’s information management and shared AV mobility service. Furthermore, it was elaborated on the information system model for planning and operating shared AV. In addition, complex automation levels for road-based mobility services were determined, and the alteration in required human abilities analysed. The results can contribute to facilitating and preparing the alteration of the transport system and the integration of AV-based services. They were already included in the curricula of subjects at Budapest University of Technology and Economics.The most relevant key findings are as follows: • Information management can be supported and even replaced by info-communication technology. • Autonomy is a relative concept; coordination of several centres with different functions are required. • According to travellers’ preferences, private car use could be significantly reduced by the introduction of shared AV. • Less human thinking is required because of machine support. Moreover, the human can be replaced in certain functions by the machine. As automation technology is relatively new, experience is available neither from operators nor from travellers. Objective is to continue the development of evaluation methods for mobility services. The evaluation covers service quality, flexibility, features of integrity and automation, as well as customization. The research will continue in order to develop information services for supporting travellers’ decision-making and also to develop AV-based mobility services. ■ Special thanks to Csaba Csiszár, Ph.D. for providing guidance and feedback throughout the research as the supervisor. REFERENCES [1] Szalay, Zs.; Nyerges, Á.; Hamar, Z., Hesz, M. (2017): Technical Specification Methodology for an Automotive Proving Ground Dedicated to Connected and Automated Vehicles. Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering, vol. 45, no. 3, pp. 168-174. [2] Chen, T.D.; Kockelman, K.M.; Hanna, J.P. (2016): Operations of a shared, autonomous, electric vehicle fleet: Implications of vehicle & charging infrastructure decisions. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 94, pp. 243-254 [3] Bansal, P.; Kockelman, K. M.; Singh, A. (2016): Assessing public opinions of and interest in new vehicle technologies: An Austin perspective. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, vol. 67, pp. 1-14 [4] Winter, K.; Cats, O.; Correia, G.; van Arem, B. (2016): Designing an Automated Demand- Responsive Transport System: Fleet Size and Performance Analysis for the Case of a Campus-Train Station Service. TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers Dávid Földes, Ph.D. Research associate, Department of Transport Technology and Economics, Faculty of Transportation Engineering and Vehicle Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics foldes.david@mail.bme.hu Creation of mobility packages based on the MaaS-concept Mobility as a Service, Carsharing, Transport mode, Mobility solution Urban mobility issues have impact on citizens’ quality of life and the overall sustainability of cities. Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is a new paradigm, which enables the increase of efficiency in passenger transportation networks. MaaS will integrate transport modes and mobility solutions with the emergence of new technologies. Kerényi Tamás I n today’s world there is a shift from rural areas to cities, where urbanization will have a significant impact on the way we travel around. Mobility issues will have impact on citizens’ quality of life and the overall sustainability of cities. It is necessary to improve the conditions of sustainable travel through development of vehicle technology, infrastructure and intelligent transportation systems, but also changes in travel behaviour are necessary in order to reduce private car dependency and the share of trips made with individual vehicles [1]. By introducing various solutions practitioners tried to change the habits of travelers to choose alternative modes of transport instead of their private cars. An intervention option is to motivate travellers through rewards and punishments, which are translated in the field of transportation to congestion charges, taxes and parking fees [2]. Encouragement is SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize International Transportation | Collection 2020 48 another type of intervention, where providing free public transportation passes is a suitable example [3]. In recent years another trend, the sharing economy and collaborative consumption is expanding in many industries. In transportation the number of car-sharing users is growing rapidly. While about 1,000 cities worldwide have a bike-sharing program today, ride-sharing services has expanded similarly. Using these new technologies the need arises to introduce new types of services in transportation [4]. Furthermore the digitalization has opened up new opportunities, which has enabled the development of some new mobility services, like multimodal travel information services, where travelers can choose between a high variety of different services and options. These services are usually limited to providing route planning and real time information [5]. Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is a new paradigm, which enables the increase of efficiency in passenger transportation networks. It is a solution that combines a number of services and provides a platform, where the intermodal journey planning and payment are integrated [6]. However it is an issue to predict user demand for these services, which requires modeling to support long term strategic decisions [7]. Furthermore it should be considered that the changes in mobility have shifted the role of public authorities, as they are providing the mobility services. Exploring of new operational models of mobility services is a challenge [8]. It is clear that the MaaS concept has to solve the problem of providing suitable mobility packages for the users, but MaaS research and development is still at an early stage and far from a definitely mature concept. More importantly there is a lack of knowledge, how the plans should be created and what local aspects could be taken into account. When creating a package, it is essential to specify what kind of transportation modes are included, to what extent the specific modes should be offered and what circumstances may have an effect on the package structure. In general the users can be offered by three types of monthly packages: fixed number of usage, flexible travels and unlimited option. The fixed package is predefined by the service provider and the traveler may choose only specific days of travel and pay by single usage, e.g. using car-sharing service on a chosen day. In case of the flexible option the traveler can customize the usage service to a limited extent, e.g. using 10 days of bike-sharing service within 30 days. The unlimited option covers a typical package for a predefined time of usage, when the service is available without any limitations, e.g. public transport monthly pass. Background MaaS is a new approach that will integrate transport modes and mobility solutions with the emergence of new technologies. The concept includes several until now separately handled services, such as planning, booking, payment and ticketing. Already in 2011 in an UITP position paper the association has forecasted that combining various transport modes, as car-sharing, taxi, shared taxis, bicycle and bike-sharing, car-pooling, demandresponsive transport can complement classic public transport [9]. The first definition appeared in 2014 by Hietanen: “A mobility distribution model in which customer’s major transportation needs are met over one interface and are offered by a service provider” [10]. This paradigm shift softens boundaries between different transportation modes with new services constantly being added. It offers travelers easy, flexible, reliable and sustainable choices solving urban mobility issues. Several implementations of different levels of MaaS services are present, which were designed by public and private operators [11]. One of the first MaaS concepts was realized by MaaS Global in Finland. The packages contain mobility services, offers personalized bundles for journeys and provide value added services. However, realizing such a service is complicated, and it can only be successful, if user needs are mapped and suitable mobility packages are provided, which reflect the real usage requirements. Method The purpose of the paper was to produce mobility packages. These packages support the efficient realization and support user demand based usage of the MaaS concept. Combining different services into one package is based on the idea that users value more grouped packages than individual items [12]. In order to perform the combination a method was elaborated, which takes into account city specific aspects and special features of transportation modes (figure 1). We have defined the most relevant modes of transport, which may be included in the mobility packages: public transport, bike-sharing, car-sharing and taxi. To each mode a level of package is selected based on different features. The features are combined from specific aspects, separately for each transportation mode. In order to analyze city characteristics those aspects were chosen, which represent relevant features in a city when considering mobility choices and are publicly available from different sources. The aspects are considered as quantifiable characteristics of cities. First the Figure 1: Steps of mobility package creation process European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 49 general climate of cities is characterized by the sunshine hours and rainfall. Then financial information was collected, the average monthly salary, cost of living, public transport pass price and taxi tariffs. Specific indexes were also considered to receive information about the situation of transportation in the cities (traffic index, travel time index, PT satisfaction). The modal split of transportation modes were received from two different sources. The size of the agglomeration was compared to the size of the city, while the density of the city was captured, so that the number of commuters and citizens can be considered. Environmental awareness of the citizens was measured based on the amount of waste and commitment to climate change. Finally the median age and male/ female ratio was collected, so that general sociodemographic features can be defined. Mobility packages In order to create the mobility packages, the package levels were assigned to the predefined definitions and the final suggested packages were established regarding the different transportation modes (table 1). Thus suitable mobility packages were created for each selected city considering local aspects and user needs. Of course these packages are general ones, and cities should offer some bigger and smaller packages of specific transportation modes in order to fulfill all user requirements. As this method considers aggregated data, it may be used as a starting point when designing mobility packages. In order to design better packages, further and more detailed data acquisition, household surveys, stakeholder interviews and other information sources would be necessary. As a final result for example in Brussels a limited public transport package is suggested with 10 days of usage within a month, with one hour of bike-sharing within a day, and three hours and 20 km of taxi. In Budapest unlimited public transport would be suitable with three hours of bike-sharing, no car-sharing and pay-as-you-go taxi. Vienna is another typical example with unlimited public transport usage, unlimited bike-sharing, three hours of car-sharing and 10 km taxi. Conclusion The aim of this paper was to create mobility packages based on local characteristics of cities. 17 aspects were chosen, which represent cities. When creating the packages the following transport modes were considered: public transport, bike-sharing, car-sharing and taxi. The aspects were grouped to features, when considering different modes of transportation. As a result the characteristics of 15 European cities were collected and features were assigned, thus the combination of packages was suggested to each city. MaaS Global is the world’s first mobility as a service (MaaS) operator leading the change in how the world moves in the future. Whim app makes smart travelling easy by incorporating all transportation modes available - from public transport to taxi rides, car rental to city bikes and more into one service. Among the researched cities Helsinki is the only one where the traveler can choose from created mobility packages, so the results can be compared. For regular travelers Whim provides the following: unlimited local public transport, 30 min city bike, car rental just EUR 49 and taxi rides within a 5-km radius. The contents of the two packages are very similar, public transport is the same, bike-sharing and taxi is same but, in our package provides more 1 hour and 10 km. Whim has car rental service and in the research has carsharing service which cannot be properly compared. ■ REFERENCES [1] Graham-Rowe, E.; Skippon, S.; Gardner, B.; Abraham, C. (2011): Can we reduce car use and, if so, how? A review of available evidence, Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 45, pp. 401-418 [2] Karlsson, M. I. C.; Sochor, J.; Strömberg, H. (2016): Developing the ‘Service’ in Mobility as a Service: experiences from a field trial of an innovative travel brokerage, Transportation Research Procedia, Vol. 14, pp. 3265-3273 Taxi Car-sharing Bike-sharing Public Transport Brussels 20 km free per month unlimited pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Prague 20 km free per month one hour free per day pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Hamburg free 20 km free per month one hour free per day one hour free per day 20 days per month Athens 10 km free per month three hours free per day pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Budapest 10 km free per month one hour free per day pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Bucharest 10 km free per month one hour free per day pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Warsaw 20 km free per month one hour free per day pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Oslo 10 km free per month pay-as-you-go pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Sofia 10 km free per month one hour free per day pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Stockholm pay-as-you-go pay-as-you-go one hour free per day 20 days per month Glasgow 20 km free per month three hours free per day pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Wien 20 km free per month one hour free per day pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Copenhagen 10 km free per month pay-as-you-go unlimited 20 days per month Helsinki 10 km free per month one hour free per day one hour free per day 20 days per month Turin 50 km free per month unlimited pay-as-you-go 20 days per month Table 1: Complex automation levels SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize International Transportation | Collection 2020 50 [3] Cats, O.; Susilo, Y. O.; Reimal, T. (2017): The prospects of fare-free public transport: evidence from Tallinn, Transportation, Vol. 44, Issue 5., pp. 1083-1104 [4] Jittrapirom, P.; Caiati, V.; Feneri, A-M. Ebrahimigharehbaghi, S.; Alonso-González, M. J.; Narayan, J. (2017): Mobility as a Service: A Critical Review of Definitions, Assessments of Schemes, and Key Challenges, Urban Planning, Vol. 2, Issue 2, pp. 13-25 [5] Esztergár-Kiss, D.; Csiszár, Cs. (2015): Evaluation of multimodal journey planners and definition of service levels, International Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Research, Springer, September 2015, Vol 13, Issue 3, pp 154-165. DOI 10.1007/ s13177-014- 0093-0 [6] Kamargianni, M.; Li ,W.; Matyas, M.; Schäfer, A. (2016): A Critical Review of New Mobility Services for Urban Transport, Transportation Research Procedia, Vol. 14, pp. 3294-3303 [7] Meurs, H.; Timmermans, H. (2017): Mobility as a Service as a Multi-Sided Market: Challenges for Modeling, 96th Transportation Research Board (TRB) Annual Meeting, Washington, United States, 8-12 January 2017 [8] Li Y., Voege T. (2017): Mobility as a Service (MaaS): Challenges of Implementation and Policy Required, Journal of Transportation Technologies, Vol. 7, Issue 2., pp. 95-106 [9] UITP (2011): Becoming a Real Mobility Provider Combined Mobility, position paper, www.uitp.org/ sites/ default/ files/ cck-focus-papers-files/ FPComMob-en.pdf [10] Hietanen, S. (2014): “Mobility as a Service” - The new transport model? , Eurotransport, Vol. 12, Issue 2, pp. 2-4 [11] Sochor, J.; Arby, H.; Karlsson, M. (2017): The topology of Mobility as a Service: A tool for understanding effects on business and society, user behavior, and technological requirements, 24th World Congress on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Montreal, Canada, 2017. October 29 - November 2 [12] Enoch, M. (2012): Sustainable Transport, Mobility Management and Travel Plans, Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group Ltd Kerényi Tamás Transport Development Junior Project Manager, BFK Budapest Development Center Nonprofit Ltd., Budapest (HU) kerenyi.tamas@icloud.com Non-probability recruitment strategies for innovative smartphone-based travel surveys Survey, Travel behaviour, Non-probability sampling, GPS, App Pros and cons of non-probability sampling are varied: Cost-effective techniques enable targeting specific population groups, flexibly reacting to changes in sample structures, and increasing participant motivation. Yet representativeness is frequently doubted when the principles of probability samplings are violated. In the City of Dresden, a travel survey was conducted using a tracking app called TravelVu. This article assesses the performance of both broad-based and individually tailored recruitment strategies, accessing different resources (e.g., news, social media, local ads, printed materials). Johannes Weber, Stefan Hubrich, Rico Wittwer, Regine Gerike A n important basis for urban and transport planning are (household) travel surveys. They provide information on how a transport system with all its interacting modes is currently used and, when repeatedly conducted, which trends are emerging over time. One of the main challenges facing large-scale travel surveys is the fact that response rates are declining — this can be observed in Germany and beyond. Consequently, risks of selectivity as well as costs and efforts for obtaining high-quality data increase [1]. In addition, innovative tools such as smartphone apps have been coming to the foreground which create new possibilities for data collection via GPS-tracking. Unlike previous data-collecting methods, tracking apps collect data in real time, lowering the overall respondent burden and offering quality framework for a longitudinal survey design [2, 3]. In light of growing interest in new data-collection methods and their integration into traditional survey designs for enhancing data content, a further question arises: Do more targeted sampling and recruitment strategies exist for obtaining adequate sample sizes within an acceptable quality and cost range? Non-probability samples offer various promising approaches such as in-street recruitment, distribution within workplaces, and the use of social media; yet they also entail challenges regarding systematic sample losses, representativeness, and sample bias [4]. Compared to other fields of research, there is minimal experience in applying such non-probability sample methods to traditional travel surveys [4]. Following up on this, the thesis - submitted to the European Friedrich-List-Prize 2020 - conducted a major travel survey in the City of Dresden (managed and supervised by the TU Dresden), with a digital travel survey app called TravelVu and a non-probability recruitment concept. The goal was to learn about the performance and effects of different recruitment approaches in terms of sampling composition, costs and survey response. Embedded in a research co-project named “Travelviewer - data for lowcarbon sustainable transport systems” financed by EIT Climate-KIC, specific travel surveys were conducted in three other European sites, demonstrating the use of TravelVu and testing new means of recruitment. Non-probability sampling in market and public opinion research Particularly in market and public opinion research, nonprobability sampling has the critical advantage of producing cost and expense savings in comparison to regis- European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 51 ter-based sampling. However, certain sample biases may occur as this method does not apply assumptions of probability theory and sampling errors [5]. Non-probability sampling allows for a less-restricted selection of participants, often removing the need for a sampling frame, such as a register of residents. However, this means that the probability of each case being chosen from a target population is not known (it may even be zero). There are five common non-probability sampling methods according to type of selection, likelihood of representativeness, extent of sample control, and overall cost and effort [6, 7]: • Quota: Sampling based on various quota variables, assuming their variability is the same as in the population • Purposive: Sampling by using personal judgement to select cases that will best enable to meet the research objectives • Snowball: Sampling by asking one respondent to establish contact with other potential (hard-to-reach) respondents • Self-Selection: Sampling by allowing each case to identify its interest to take part in the survey - often a crowdsourced task with mutual benefit (see also [8]) • Convenience: Sampling by haphazardly selecting those cases that are easiest to obtain Recruitment concept for an app-based travel-survey Developed by the Swedish company Trivector, TravelVu enables users to GPS-track their everyday movements and activities in a personal timeline. Learning algorithms suggest modes of transport and types of activity that can be traced in an interactive map. Travel characteristics can be adapted with several editing functions available through the app. For survey data, each travel day must be confirmed. Additionally, gamified pushmessages motivate users to correct their data. In doing so, participants receive a summary of their trips in distance and time. The desired sample target for this study was 1,000 individuals, selected from all relevant population groups within Dresden. From 14 Oct. to 24 Nov. 2019, anyone predominantly located in the city could participate. Due to legal regulations, respondents had to be 18 years or older. Potential participants were asked to answer an inapp questionnaire on socio-demographic attributes and to record their travel behaviour for at least seven days. The survey was called “Dresden in Bewegung” (Dresden in Motion), promoted with “Towards climatefriendly urban transport by app”, encouraging the contribution to a unique data basis for a better and more sustainable urban transport in the future. A non-probability sampling approach was used with a two-stage design, combining various sampling techniques: • First, haphazard sampling was used to reach the advised overall sample size, including mainly crowdsourcing and convenience sampling as well as techniques like snowball sampling. • Second, during the dynamic sampling phase, systematic selection was used to address specific, underrepresented groups and to minimise the risk of skewness. This was mainly a combination of purposive sampling and quota sampling as a comprehensive method for sample monitoring (age, gender, and post codes). As a part of the recruitment concept, resources were-accessed for spreading the survey via various communication channels. With aspects of participant motivation and technical support included, a broad-based and individually tailored recruitment concept was formed: Project Webpage: Available in German and English, this page provided information on how to participate as well as details on how to use the app and contact the technical support. Press Releases: In cooperation with the TU Dresden and the City of Dresden, two press releases were issued, to which several news media outlets responded (crowdsourcing). Social Media: A Facebook project page was set up to attract new participants as well as inform and motivate active ones through video posts explaining functions of the app, notices on the support, or posts on survey progress (crowdsourcing). These were shared by various persons, institutions, an action group (snowball sampling), and distributed throughout Facebook groups (convenience sampling). In the second survey stage, Facebook and Instagram ads were applied (purposive sampling) to target underrepresented groups regarding age and city districts. Local Media: A short promotional ad was shown on screens inside the Dresden tramcars, which was additionally broadcasted on an online TV channel (convenience sampling). Project Ambassadors: Two external supporters in particular contributed to the distribution (crowdsourcing): The City of Dresden spread the survey via its company mobility management e-mail list; the survey was also put on the Department of Transport Planning website. The TU Dresden utilised two student e-mail circulars and the monthly student newsletter to spread the survey. Both supporters also promoted the survey on their own social media channels. Printed Material: Posters were hung at specific points in the city, and brochures and post cards were displayed and handed out in the city centre as well as at the weekly market. The elderly were primarily targeted during this process (convenience & purposive sampling). In the second phase, these were additionally distributed to mailboxes along randomly selected routes in underrepresented districts (quota sampling and random route). Results During the course of the survey, there was a certain dropout of participants: 1,032 persons joined the survey, of which 941 answered the background questionnaire and 871 respondents recorded their trip information. By confirming travel days, a net sample of 618 participants contributed with travel behaviour data. With only 30 percent further dropout, those that remained collected data from seven days or more. This resulted in nearly 8,500 confirmed travel days, with an average of 13.7 days corrected by the participants, corresponding to a median of 10 days. SCIENCE & RESEARCH European Friedrich-List-Prize International Transportation | Collection 2020 52 For analysis, only the data from participants living inside the city (by post codes from the questionnaire) was used; this makes it possible to draw comparisons on register data. Figure 1 shows the distribution of age, gender as well as across the city’s districts: The sample consists of a higher share of young and a clearly low share of elderly people compared to the city’s register data from September 2019. However, users are more evenly distributed across the ten city districts. Regarding gender distribution, men are overrepresented to some extent. Participants also stated how they were made aware of the survey, which makes it possible to assess the recruitment process itself. The access modes most often mentioned were the TU Dresden e-mail circulars (42 %), followed by news (14 %), and Facebook (10 %), but also word-of-mouth advertising was referred to quite often (9 %). Social media ads and print distributions had observable precise and group-specific effects, especially through random routes. Platforms such as Instagram and Twitter as well as the ads shown in the tramcars were mentioned the least. When calculating the cost effectiveness of the recruitment, costs were related to the number of net participants (see figure 2). With reference to the net sample of n = 618, a cost of EUR 14.73 per participant was calculated. This is about a quarter less costly when compared to “Mobility in Cities - SrV” (a traditional cross-sectional household travel survey in Germany) with about EUR 20.50 per person in 2018. By correlating the net participants to specific access modes, it is apparent that ambassador-based recruitment was the most cost-effective and the distribution of printed material was the least of all. Discussion and conclusion Some recruitment instruments such as the e-mail circulars showed very strong and specific survey success, though they also presented challenges in terms of addressing missing groups. Thus, effects to specific groups need to be considered, and better-performing alternatives should be tested in the future. The question remains if smartphone-based tracking, combined with non-probability sample recruitment, is a suitable survey method for elderly people - at least for Germany in 2020. In future applications, possible solutions could be, e.g., specifically confining the population to be addressed, providing additional “traditional” survey modes, or offering intensive support for elderly people during recruitment and data collection, eventually supplemented by a random sample. In conclusion, sample representativeness is a core quality criterion of traditional (household) travel surveys and a necessary prerequisite for making this data applicable for practical transport modelling and planning. This issue needs to be at least critically discussed and reflected towards the objectives of a travel survey. However, even if non-probability sampling strategies risk the potential for bias, they bring valuable advantages to recruitment in terms of flexibility, reactivity, and cost years 40% 50% 60% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Dresden Sample Reference Population Male Female 8% 15% 5% 3% 2% 13% 4% 10% 26% 15% 11% 9% 9% 5% 6% 16% 7% 10% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 37% 47% 12% 4% 10% 36% 22% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 18-24 25-44 45-59 60+ Figure 1: Dresden net sample composition compared to register data from September 2019 Register Data: [9, 10] European Friedrich-List-Prize SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 53 effectiveness, and may increase overall participant motivation — especially in combination with a user-friendly and appealing app design. As an area of future research, comparability of mobility patterns gathered by traditional (household) travel surveys and GPS-based data collections needs to be studied in more detail. ■ REFERENCES [1] Hubrich, S. and Wittwer, R. (2017): Effects of Improvements to Survey Methods on Data Quality and Precision - Methodological Insights into the 10th Wave of the Cross-Sectional Household Survey ”Mobility in Cities - SrV”. Transportation Research Procedia. Shanghai, pp. 2276-2286. https: / / doi.org/ 10.1016/ j.trpro.2017.05.436 [2] Verzosa, N.; Greaves, S. and Ellison, R. (2017): Smartphone-Based Travel Surveys: A Review. Working Paper. Retrieved from https: / / ses.library.usyd.edu.au/ handle/ 2123/ 19540 [3] He, S.; Wang, Z. and Leung, Y. (2017): Applying Mobile Phone Data to Travel Behaviour Research: A Literature Review. Travel Behaviour and Society. https: / / doi.org/ 10.1016/ j. tbs.2017.02.005 [4] Kuhnimhof, T.; Bradley, M. and Anderson, R.S. (2018): Workshop Synthesis: Making the Transition to New Methods for Travel Survey Sampling and Data Retrieval. Transportation Research Procedia, pp. 301-308. https: / / doi.org/ 10.1016/ j.trpro.2018.10.055 [5] Fowler, F.J. (2008): Survey Research Methods. 4th ed. Thousand Oaks: Sage Pubn Inc. ISBN: 978-1-4129-5841-7. Retrieved from https: / / dx.doi.org/ 10.4135/ 9781452230184 [6] Adams, K. and Brace, I. (2006): An Introduction to Market & Social Research: Planning & Using Research Tools & Techniques. London; Philadelphia: Kogan Page. ISBN: 978-0- 7494-4377-1 [7] Saunders, M.N.K.; Lewis, P. and Thornhill, A. (2016): Research Methods for Business Students. 5th ed. Essex: Pearson. ISBN: 978-1-292-01662-7 [8] Estellés-Arolas, E. and González-Ladrón-de-Guevara, F.G. (2012): Towards an Integrated Crowdsourcing Definition. Journal of Information Science. Vol. 38. https: / / doi. org/ 10.1177/ 0165551512437638 [9] City of Dresden (2019): City Population [Bevölkerungsbestand]. Retrieved from https: / / www.dresden.de/ media/ pdf/ statistik/ Statistik_1221_Lebensbaum_Quartal_Tabelle.pdf [10] City of Dresden (2019): Population across the City’s Districts (main residence) on 31 December 2019 [Bevölkerung am Ort der Hauptwohnung nach Stadtteilen am 31.12.2019]. Retrieved from www.dresden.de/ media/ pdf/ statistik/ Statistik_1219_Quartal_HW_n_ ST.pdf Johannes Weber, Dipl.-Ing. Research Associate, Chair of Integrated Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering, TU Dresden (DE) johannes.weber1@tu-dresden.de Stefan Hubrich, Dr.-Ing. Research Associate, Chair of Integrated Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering, TU Dresden (DE) stefan.hubrich@tu-dresden.de Rico Wittwer, PD Dr.-Ing. habil. Research Associate, Chair of Integrated Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering, TU Dresden (DE) rico.wittwer@tu-dresden.de Regine Gerike, Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Head of Chair, Chair of Integrated Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering, TU Dresden (DE) regine.gerike@tu-dresden.de Costs (including related working hours) Amount Subtotal Costs per Participant Netted by Access Mode Press Releases 161.00 € 1.63 € Writing and Coordinating with Ambassadors Social Media 1,640.00 € 22.47 € Facebook Page Setup, Creating Posts and Ads Ads in Local Media 380.00 € 76.00 € Public Transport TV Ambassadors 81.00 € 0.22 € Preparing Material for e.g. E-mail Circulars Printed Material 3,120.00 € 183.53 € Post Cards: Design, Display & Random-Route Distribution 4.000 1,300.00 € Brochures: Design, Display & Random-Route Distribution 2.000 1,150.00 € Posters: Design & display 100 670.00 € Project Webpage 661.00 € Setup and Maintenance Non-recruitment working hours translated to costs 3,060.00 € 10-week period (preparation phase: 4 weeks; data collection: 6 weeks) Total 9,105.00 € Total Costs per Net Participant n = 618 14.73 € Figure 2: Calculation of survey costs including respective working hours Trialog Publishers Verlagsgesellschaft | Schliffkopfstrasse 22 | D-72270 Baiersbronn Tel.: +49 7449 91386.36 | Fax: +49 7449 91386.37 | office@trialog.de | www.trialog-publishers.de Let’s keep in touch editorsdesk@international-transportation.com advertising@international-transportation.com International Transportation | Collection 2020 54 SCIENCE & RESEARCH Sustainability Tackling innovation barriers An empirical investigation for sustainable transport services Mobility-as-a-Service, Curiosity, Innovation barriers, Sustainability, Moderated mediation Whilst there is lots of work on innovation adoption, their barriers often fall short but might be as crucial for the final consumer decision. This study investigates curiosity and its consequences for active or passive innovation barriers on the way towards adoption of a smart mobility service. Curiosity is of interest here as it can function as driver towards striving for novelties. An online sample was drawn (n = 308), based on which a moderated mediation model was analysed. It is found that curiosity enhances the evaluation of the service as well as its perceived usefulness and convenience. Konstantin Krauss I n order to reach the greenhouse gas reduction targets in the transport sector, new and more sustainable mobility services need to be established and, more importantly, used [1]. It is the aim of this study to investigate whether curiosity as a driver towards thinking in new ways and striving for novel events can help to reduce active and passive innovation barriers regarding the usage of more sustainable passenger transport services. In order to answer this question, an empirical study was conducted in Germany, in which n = 308 subjects were exposed to a fictional smart mobility service. The moderated mediation model estimated with PROCESS [2] shows that curiosity increases the evaluation, the perceived usefulness and the perceived convenience of the service. Thus, curiosity is not able to tackle passive innovation resistance but is well able to decrease active innovation resistance. Introduction One of the most important and recent domains driven by innovative developments is the mobility industry [3]. Therefore, innovation behavior of potential consumers is critical for this industry. This is particularly important with respect to the global climate targets [1, 4]. Although curiosity is said to stimulate exploratory behavior [5], it is very rarely discussed within innovation adoption of new mobility services. The high failure rates of innovations in general - around 40 % [6] - makes it even more necessary to discuss potential factors facilitating innovation adoption behavior. This study shall hence shed further light on the potential role of curiosity towards diffusion of smart mobility by taking an innovation resistance approach [7]. An innovation is defined as „[…] an idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption“. Thereby it does not matter whether this idea is technically new or certain measures define it as new. [8] Curiosity can be considered as desire that motivates subjects to strive for events that are new or uncertain [9]. Following the definition of an innovation, curiosity might affect the innovation adoption process. Due to the urgency of reducing emissions from transport, sustainability is taken as focus of the advertisement and tested against a neutral focus. In this case, sustainability is understood as the environmental aspects of the triple-bottom line [10]. With respect to the adoption behavior of consumers towards new products or services, innovation resistance particularly focuses on utilizing knowledge about the psychology of resistance in order to develop and promote innovations [7]. This resistance is of critical importance for innovation research because it might hinder consumers in adopting the innovation. Yet, literature about curiosity with respect to innovation resistance in transport is very scarce. Answering the question whether curiosity might mitigate this resistance could be highly beneficial for the society’s path towards more sustainable transport. Smart mobility services (e.g. Whim, Trafi) can be described as a new generation of more intelligent transportation systems and are consequently frequently innovative [11]. Their proposition is defined as a form of mobility that is energy-efficient, low-emission, safe, convenient, affordable and used by traffic participants in an intelligent way [12]. Moreover, it is said to decrease traffic congestion and increase transfer speed [13]. By combining various types of transportation, traditional and new ones, smart mobility is a system of intermodal nexus [12]. Theoretical Background Curiosity Curiosity is a feeling of deficiency, arising in a subject from paying focalized attention to a gap in knowledge [14]. The gap itself should be manageable for the subject in order to generate curiosity [14, 15]. “The genesis of cu- PEER REVIEWED Submission: 18 Feb 2020 Final version: 30 Apr 2020 International Transportation | Collection 2020 55 Sustainability SCIENCE & RESEARCH riosity” is the subject’s transition of focus from “[…] what is known to […] what is not known”. At this point, the information-gap theory predicts the subject to experience an abrupt increase in curiosity. [14] Since the realization of the information-gap induces an aversive feeling of deficiency, the subject is willing to search for information that will close this gap, which makes this process pleasurable. Thus, the specific information that closes the information-gap, and hence satisfies curiosity, functions as reward to influence motivation and learning [16]. The focus on the information aiming to generate curiosity in an advertisement, i.e. on specific features or benefits of the product, is the “curiosity trigger” [15]. With respect to the information-gap, the curiosity trigger functions as goal in order to discover the specific information required to close the gap. Curiosity can furthermore be classified as “desire to change and novelty” [14]. Moreover, it is understood as an “intense desire” striving for “novel, challenging, and uncertain events” [9]. It is furthermore stated that curiosity motivates operating and also thinking in new ways. This exploratory character of curiosity is further conceptualized in the “Optimal Stimulation/ Dual Process Theory of Exploratory Behavior”. Here, curiosity is considered to stimulate exploratory behavior via an “emotional-motivational system”. [5] It could be shown that increased curiosity leads to higher probabilities of innovation adoption [17]. However, the authors measured adoption directly and did not pay particular attention to innovation resistance. Following these theoretical considerations, the information-gap may induce curiosity, which in turn might influence exploratory behavior and, thus, innovation barriers. Hence, in this functional framework, curiosity might function as mediator between the informationgap and innovation resistance. With respect to additional product information, the specific product goal works as frame for processing and, hence, organizing the information [18; 15]. Innovation Adoption Behavior of Consumers Adoption of an innovation means making full use of an innovation [8]. Not adopting an innovation can be explained by the concept of innovation resistance. This term was introduced due to a “pro-change bias” in innovation research. Innovation resistance describes the behavior of subjects resisting change and consequently innovations. [7] In order to shed further light on this, the most recent concept of active and passive innovation resistance is applied here [19]. Active innovation resistance refers to characteristics of the innovation. It is intentional due to unfavorable appraisal of the innovation and can thus be found in the persuasion stage of the process of innovation adoption. Passive innovation resistance refers to the imposed changes due to an innovation. This resistance is subject-specific and stems from personal propensities to resist changes and situational factors, which determine the subject’s satisfaction with the current status quo. Hence, it can be found in the knowledge stage of the innovation adoption process. [8] Regarding passive innovation barriers, two factors are of importance: Resistance to change [20] and desirability of control [21, 19]. The former is described as multi-dimensional factor and defined as a subject’s “tendency to resist or avoid making changes” [20]. This resistance reflects a general devaluation of change as well as an aversive perception of change across diverse contexts. Desirability of control is defined as personally exerting control over the subject‘s surroundings [22]. In the persuasion stage of innovation adoption, attitudes are formed, which are either favorable or unfavorable towards the innovation [8]. Attitudes are the subject’s beliefs about a certain object, which predispose its actions and are relatively stable. In this stage, the consumer selects messages and decides about the interpretation of the received information. Consequently, the consumer develops a perception of the innovation, which is selective due to the evaluated decisions concerning messages and their interpretations. This requires forward planning in order to evaluate expected consequences regarding advantages and disadvantages of the innovation. Hence, in the persuasion stage, active innovation resistance plays an important role if consumers evaluate the innovation as negative [19]. Thus, product features, their evaluations and corresponding attitudes towards the innovation are crucial in this stage. The evaluation of product features is measured in terms of how favorable or unfavorable the innovation is to the consumer and is explicitly referred to as active innovation resistance [23]. Perceived usefulness is the perceived likelihood that the product or service creates a benefit for the consumer in performing a particular task [24]. Additionally, complexity refers to how difficult an innovation is to understand and use [23]. Moreover, convenience of a service is understood as the perceptions of consumers towards the time and effort related to buying or using a service [25]. Lastly, perceived risk is another innovation characteristic, which might jeopardize the probability of rewards from the innovation [26]. Condensing the theories and factors outlined above, it is hypothesized that H1: Curiosity will mediate the effect of the information-gap on the active innovation resistance and on the passive innovation resistance. H 2 : With higher magnitudes of curiosity, the active and passive innovation resistance is reduced. These hypotheses are to be tested using a moderated mediation analysis. Survey and Results Survey Design For this study a 2 x 2 full-factorial between-subjects design was applied (information-gap: moderate vs. high x curiosity trigger: sustainability vs. neutral). This design allows controlling and isolating each manipulation effect separately [27]. Data collection took place online in March 2018 with the sample being recruited via German mailing lists and social media channels. The service used in this study was a fictional one in order to exclude direct branding effects from existing services. In principle, it was designed in the way Whim or Trafi work: The user enters origin and destination, subsequently the platform offers routes with various modes of transport to choose and all required tickets are booked with the price being a flat one per month. The information-gap functioned as curiosity cue and was designed as two-stage factor (moderate vs. high) in a two-stage procedure: In the first stage of the procedure, subjects were exposed to the advertisement including a moderate or high information-gap (figure 1 exemplarily International Transportation | Collection 2020 56 SCIENCE & RESEARCH Sustainability shows the high-gap condition). Note that the participants did know they saw an advertisement about a new service but explicitly did not know which kind of service this was until they got to see the resolution, which built the second stage (figure 2). The curiosity trigger was a two-stage factor as well: The sustainability focus referred to the potential of decreasing one’s ecological footprint by using this service compared to owning a private car whereas the neutral focus referred to describing the service as new way towards flexibility. Due to the survey design, one participant either saw advertisements with the sustainability focus or with the neutral focus. The study material was pretested with minor changes being made in accordance to these results. Results The survey includes n = 308 subjects with the different experimental groups being structurally equal as could be tested using χ 2-tests as well as one-factorial ANOVAs. Furthermore, manipulation checks revealed that all manipulations were successful. Requirements for the subsequent analyses were checked by having no missing data and applying Mahalanobis distances [28]. Results from the moderated mediation model estimated with PROCESS [2] and 5,000 bootstrapping samples can be retrieved from figure 3. It depicts the moderated mediation effects of information-gap on the dependent variables via the mediator curiosity for the neutral curiosity trigger. The coefficients of the regressions are indicated by b. In addition, the conditional indirect effects of the information-gap on the respective dependent variable via curiosity as mediator are shown (indicated by B). All moderated mediation models on the innovation barrier variables are highly significant (p < 0.001 throughout). A partial moderated mediation [29] can be found for the evaluation of • the service (B = -0.14; standard error [SE] = 0.05; 95 % bootstrap confidence interval [CI] = [-0.25; -0.04]), • perceived usefulness (B = -0.20; SE = 0.09; 95 % bootstrap CI = [-0.40; -0.05]), • and perceived convenience (B = -0.15; SE = 0.07; 95 % bootstrap CI = [-0.30; -0.03]), given the neutral curiosity trigger. Thus, significant moderated mediation effects could be shown for three active but none passive innovation barriers. Consequently, curiosity does have an impact on innovation resistance concerning the characteristics of the innovation, which results in a partial confirmation of H1. When analyzing the regression coefficients of curiosity on the respective innovation barriers (figure 3), the direction of the effects can be evaluated. For the three active innovation barriers that showed a significant moderated mediation effect, the coefficients are positive and significant throughout: for the evaluation of the service b = 0.15 (p<0.01), for perceived usefulness b = 0.22 (p<0.01) and for perceived convenience b = 0.17 (p<0.05). Hence, relatively higher magnitudes of curiosity result in higher evaluations of the service, higher perceived usefulness and higher perceived convenience. The higher values in these three factors transform into reduced active innovation resistance. Consequently, as with H1, H 2 can be partially confirmed. Regarding innovation behavior of consumers, the results show that curiosity is not able to affect imposed changes an innovation might bring about, i.e. passive innovation resistance. These subject-specific barriers seem to be fostered within the personal propensities in such a way that makes them hard to be influenced by curiosity. However, when consumers evaluate the innovation, curiosity does affect the evaluation results. This makes curiosity a particularly important factor for advertising innovative mobility services within the persuasion stage of the innovation-decision process [8]. Limitations With respect to generalizability of the study results, limitations have to be critically observed. The sample was drawn by using an online survey, which might make a self-selection bias present in the data [30]. Object of the study was a smart mobility service, which was supplied as an app. This combination might have contradicting effects: On the one hand, a sample drawn online for an appbased mobility service might strengthen the results of the study. On the other hand, the online survey and the service in the form of an app might increase limitation regarding generalizability as it excludes not online-affine subjects by the sampling-procedure and the service. Furthermore, the service was designed as unlimited usage mobility service. This might not reflect the use case for consumers who do not travel regularly or frequently. They might be more interested in a service that offers distinct packages for different users with respect to distance travelled or transportation modes used, and consequently Figure 1: Stimulus material example with sustainability focus and high informationgap - curiosity-inducing advertisement (first-stage) Figure 2: Stimulus material example with sustainability focus - resolution advertisement (second-stage) International Transportation | Collection 2020 57 Sustainability SCIENCE & RESEARCH different prices. The design of the advertisements was evaluated as slightly negative by subjects, which could have also influenced assessment of the service and resulting active and passive innovation resistance. Conclusion It is found that curiosity positively influences certain active innovation resistance but does not so with passive innovation resistance regarding a new mobility service. Hence, curiosity functions as accelerator towards active innovation acceptance in this case. As the persuasion stage is also accountable for attitude formation towards the service, curiosity can be seen as actuator for developing more positive attitudes towards a new way of mobility. These results offer possibilities to derive guidance for practitioners as well as for future research. For new and sustainable mobility solutions to get used by passengers, curiosity can play a crucial role. By increasing curiosity, it could be shown that active innovation barriers can be significantly reduced, which makes it more probable that passengers really use these mobility services. This might be one step towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport. This is because it might cause passengers to not use a private car but shared mobility solutions instead, which shifts the modal split in a productive direction. Future research on smart mobility could also investigate the privacy factor, which might also function as innovation barrier. Moreover, passive innovation resistance could be investigated in more detail by applying more personality-based behavior theories such as the OCEAN model. ■ REFERENCES [1] EEA, 2018. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport. European Environment Agency. 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[23] Heidenreich, S., Spieth, P., 2013. Why Innovations Fail - The Case of Passive and Active Innovation Resistance. International Journal of Innovation Management 17(5), 1350021-1 - 1350021-42. [24] Kulviwat, S., Brunner II., G.C., Kumar, A., Nasco, S.A., Clark, T., 2007. Toward a Unified Theory of Consumer Acceptance Technology. Psychology & Marketing 24(12), 1059-1084. [25] Berry, L.L., Seiders, K., Grewal, D., 2002. Understanding Service Convenience. Journal of Marketing 66(3), 1-17. [26] Meuter, M.L., Bitner, M.J., Ostrom, A.L., Brown, S.W., 2005. Choosing Among Alter-native Service Delivery Modes: An Investigation of Customer Trial of Self-Service Technologies. Journal of Marketing 69(2), 61-83. [27] Koschate, N., 2002. Kundenzufriedenheit und Preisverhalten. Theoretische und empirisch experimentelle Analysen, Springer, Wiesbaden. [28] Field, A., 2013. Discovering Statistics Using IBM SPSS Statistics. And Sex and Drugs and Rock ‘n’ Roll, 4th ed., Sage Publications. London. [29] Baron, R.M., Kenny, D.A., 1986. The Moderator-Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research: Conceptual, Strategic, and Statistical Considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 51(6), 1173-1182. [30] Homburg, C., 2017. Marketingmanagement. Strategie - Instrumente - Umsetzung - Unternehmensführung, 6th ed., Springer Gabler, Wiesbaden. Konstantin Krauss, M. Sc. Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe (DE) konstantin.krauss@isi.fraunhofer.de Information-gap (moderate vs. high) Curiosity R 2 =0.37; MSE=1.43; F(12,295)=16.96; p<0.001 Curiosity trigger (neutral) Evaluation of service 1 B=-0.14; SE=0.05; 95% bootstrap CI=[-0.25; -0.04] Usefulness 2 B=-0.20; SE=0.09; 95% bootstrap CI=[-0.40; -0.05] Complexity 3 B=-0.09; SE=0.06; 95% bootstrap CI=[-0.22; 0.03] Convenience 4 B=-0.15; SE=0.07; 95% bootstrap CI=[-0.30; -0.03] Risk 5 B=-0.07; SE=0.07; 95% bootstrap CI=[-0.23; 0.05] Resistance to change 6 B=-0.05; SE=0.05; 95% bootstrap CI=[-0.14; 0.04] Desirability of control 7 B=0.02; SE=0.05; 95% bootstrap CI=[-0.08; 0.13] b = -0.91 *** b = 0.22 ** b = 0.49 * b = 0.10 b = -0.10 b = 0.17 * b = 0.31 * b = 0.02 b = 0.08 b = 0.06 b = 0.05 b = 0.43 ** b = -0.02 b = 0.15 ** b = 0.41 *** n=308 * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001 b = 0.66 * Figure 3: Results from moderated mediation analysis of curiosity on active and passive innovation resistance 1 R 2 = 0.35; MSE = 0.85; F(11,296) = 13.88; p < 0.001 2 R 2 = 0.34; MSE = 2.54; F(11,296) = 17.46; p < 0.001 3 R 2 = 0.10; MSE = 1.49; F(11,296) = 3.09; p < 0.001 4 R 2 = 0.33; MSE = 1.87; F(11,296) = 14.07; p < 0.001 5 R 2 = 0.10; MSE = 2.20; F(11,296) = 3.61; p < 0.001 6 R 2 = 0.29; MSE = 1.05; F(11,296) = 13.20; p < 0.001 7 R 2 = 0.14; MSE = 1.19; F(11,296) = 4.21; F < 0.001 Moderation model: R 2 = 0.38; MSE = 1.42; F(14,287) = 14.49; p < 0.001) SCIENCE & RESEARCH Automation International Transportation | Collection 2020 58 Implementation of autonomous vehicle onto roadways A step to a Theory of Automated Road Traffic Road map of progress, Automation chain, Scenery finding, Scenario construction, Movement spaces, Interaction scenes At present, automation researchers and automotive component developers perceive the car to be a solitary object that constitutes a sort of singularity, which both triggers and copes with events onto roadways. As far as we know, the setting in which events occur along a road and require automated responses has so far been studied only at a highly abstract level and only for singular events that occur directly in the course of traffic. No comprehensive analysis has so far been attempted that discusses structures of the physical setting in greater detail both objectively and in terms of spatiality and that looks into their disposition for anthropogeneous intervention in response to autonomous vehicle movement. Heinz Doerr, Andreas Romstorfer C urrent tenders on the subject follow a road map proposed by the technology development community triggered by automobile OEM. The goal is to have automation technologies for sensors, the software that interprets their detections and the responding electronic controls prove their suitability and safety for a dynamic vehicle in actual operation on selected test runs (like special testing grounds or on sections of public roads permitted by the authorities). During this early phase of developing automations technology, it is sensible to choose test settings that match the components state of development, especially since government authorities need to issue special permits for this purpose. The road map of technologies for automated driving defines five steps (SAE levels) until full autonomy, i.e. ultimately driverless driving. The higher the degree of automation in a car the greater will be the need and necessity to exchange data with other vehicles (v2v) in the immediate surrounding as well as with those in the setting through which the car passes and from which cars enter the main traffic flow from stationary traffic facilities. Similarly important is the need to have cars linked in an overriding network of traffic flows, e. g. in order to prevent congestions, all of which requires an exchange of data with-the traffic infrastructure (v2i resp. i2v) and its timely capacity management (v2tm2v). Spatial spheres of implementation and evaluation The next step is to break down the “setting” by its functional properties and structural features and to identify its in-depth effect on the street. What is the application perspective of automatization for all traffic participants, if they are motorized or nonmotorized, riding by public transport or individual mobile without using a car. Such a setting is not concentrated on a single vehicle and on driver’s comfort only, but it covers the mobility needs of all traffic participants and takes care of their interests in critical interactions between traffic participants on a roadway. Hereby reference is made to affected spaces, which postulates spatial categories in respect of perimeters and scale as follows: Surrounding onto roadway (as “Playing ground of scenes”) That concerns traffic spaces onto the roadway used by autonomous and traditional cars as well as by other authorized traffic participants. Traffic flows are regulated by planning and management measures and the local regulations are signalized to the traffic participating groups. Setting of Scenery (as traffic generating and otherwise intervening land use structures) Hereby the public street and the land use of its adjoining spaces are essential, i. e.- urban spaces that have the potential to- generate traffic as well as a risk potential- for incidents to impact on the traffic flow. Environment Influences resulting from the perimeter, whether near or far but not clearly delimitable, along a traffic corridor that may elude any standardised predictions (e.g. unreliable pedestrian flows, plumes and fumes, flocks of birds, changing lighting conditions etc.). Methodical approaches for generating test scenarios Such a spatial differentiation, which maps both interaction spaces and affected mobility areas, may serve as a practicable start- based on multiple methodological approaches, which allow evaluations and interpretations derivable from several data sources, including: • image analysis of traffic scenes (e.g. evaluations of webcams used in traffic monitoring), • spatial analysis of traffic generating sceneries, which includes mobility patterns of the inhabitants and the working people there, by way of geographic information systems GIS, • local monitoring of traffic relevant interfaces within the road network (e.g. at neuralgic locations that tend to be overlooked by stationary monitors, such as an exit from an underground car park or an intersection of main roads), • traffic detection at counting points (e.g. evaluations to identify traffic intensity across Automation SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 59 time and vehicle mix by common vehicle categories), • analysis of road accidents, which provides pointers at risks that might be prevented or alleviated, but possibly even could be- enhanced by autonomous driving actions. Generating a scenario means to implement future aspects of driving manœuvres due to automation function of vehicles in scenes of daily traffic actions as they can be observed nowadays. According to the physical and traffic organisational preconditions presented by sceneries along a roadway standard event scenarios when interacting traffic participants behave regularly to the rules and eventuality scenarios when “unfortunate circumstances” occur due to irregular behaviour of players or unanticipated interventions from outside will be generated. They may result in some sort of classification of critical respective risky potentials along an evaluated route in the road network. Finding of sceneries for designing test settings To this end, streets as examples are used that run radially from the highly urbanized spaces via suburban structures to the fringe of the agglomerations because they contribute a large variety of realistic frame conditions in terms of roadway’s topography and daily traffic events. Therefrom implementation conditions can be identified for the use of automation functionalities in road traffic. Ultimately this is to yield testing tools such as a catalogue of testing criteria for licensing automation functionalities in vehicle types when the driver’s responsibility will be delegated in whole or in part to the automation system depending on the automation-level (SAE) of the car. Besides finding of revealing sceneries as examples for test settings one can discover road sections along the route, which are suitable and adaptable for automatization of road traffic. On the one hand, sections with four lanes on separated carriageways or tunnel sections of expressways are predestined for that as well as motorways in general. With them external guiding systems to establish interconnectivity between infrastructure and vehicles could easily installed, if the operator of the road network would bear the investment costs (figure 1). On the other hand, urban main roads are characterised by a multitude of surface marks and traffic signs at the roadside for regulating traffic flow as shown in figure 1 and figure 2. These local regulations should been recognised “visually” by the detection functionality or could be received as signals send by the stationary signs equipped with transponders. Besides of that such information could feed in an on-board database of the vehicle, which has to be the latest. System expansion to non-automated and non-interconnected traffic participants Which traffic participating groups will be concerned when vehicles will be fully or partly equipped with automated functionalities allowing hands-off or even eyes-off to the driver? To whose responsibilities regulations have to be addressed if malfunctions of the technologies occure and cause insecurity or incidents. All those crucial questions evoke need for clarification, before automation conquers the mixed used public traffic spaces. The realization of personal mobility must be perceived as a vested right of all mobility groups considering their different needs and opportunities. Issues of how to design future mobility touch not just on technological aspects such as digitalising cars and making them autonomous, but also need to be linked to the contrarian idea of combining central control over traffic with individual freedom of movement within the traffic system. Fitting out means of transport, and in particular passenger cars, with ever more digital equipment changes the conditions for exercising the right to mobility for all groups. 2 Figure 1: A circular driving survey to find sceneries for testing arrangements within the Northeast of Vienna Methodical approaches for generating test scenarios Such a spatial differentiation, which maps both interaction spaces and affected mobility areas, may serve as a practicable start based on multiple methodological approaches, which allow evaluations and interpretations derivable from several data sources, including:  image analysis of traffic scenes (e.g. evaluations of webcams used in traffic monitoring), High-density urban precinct (Floridsdorf) P e r i u r b a n f r i n g e Suburban miscellaneous landuse structures Figure 1: A circular driving survey to find sceneries for testing arrangements within the Northeast of Vienna All figures by the authors SCIENCE & RESEARCH Automation International Transportation | Collection 2020 60 Looking at Interaction Spaces as playing ground of mobility In a next step, traffic automation technology will expand to encompass non-automated motorists, such as drivers of older vehicles that have not been retrofitted, as well as non-motorized traffic participants who couse, pass along or cross traffic lanes. These groups of traffic participants could be upgraded in the use of ICT and incorporated in the traffic network, e.g. via their smart phones, but this involves issues that go far beyond the technological discourse and touch principal societal aspects. Scenarios could have been derived from daily observations of traffic scenes by coincidentally interacting traffic participants with respect to an assumed mixture of vehicles on different levels of automatization and powertrain performance (scene in figure 2). For this purposes overlookable interaction’s spaces have to be delimited that could be defined by physical and traffic guiding conditions of the roadway using geoinformation data in high solution and the graph theory as attribution order of roads. In such a way test objects and their playing grounds can be fixed to design testing arrangements. One has to distinguish between tasks of autonomizing cars like distance keeping or collision avoidance and the technological means to fulfill them. Automotive engineers prefer to talk about technologies and their deployment but less about the real world implementation of autonomized vehicles in their complex relationships to other mobility groups. Focussing back to the vehicle’s automation system, the functionalities form a chain of decision-preparing resp. decision-making procedures enabling the car to steer movements autonomously, which has to be done in splits of seconds permanently. That goes beyond of assistance-systems at what driver’s responsibility fully remains in the case of incidences. Moreover, it requires an autonomous so-called “neuronal” networking of functionalities based on deep learning which has gained artificial intelligence by while. A holistic view on the issues of-automated road traffic As a key to analyse scenes and predict interactions between traffic participants onto the roadway it will be necessary to investigate the complexity and the impact of frame conditions. Moreover is a need to create a terminology derived from daily traffic actions beyond an automotive technological speech. Beginning with the detection of the disposable trajectory field and the ranging of moving objects, which could intervene the driving of the more or less autonomized car, the automation chain of the vehicle has to predict the moving spaces of the opponent traffic participants around. In this context trajectories of them are not only likely ideal lines marked out but they form also a hardly to calculate moving space of mobile objects. At this end a moving space in 3-D as defined here contains the potential of movement actions onto a (normally by the traffic rules designated) “playing-ground”. Categorization of subjects as required for scenario construction Making scenario construction operable there is a need of systematic categorization of relevant subjects, of which characteristics and attributes more or less are suited to master challenging tasks of automatized driving. As they are (maybe in an incomplete listing): • Vehicle’s automation equipment corresponding to the SAE-levels • Vehicle’s motorization corresponding to vehicle utility classes and automotive brands • Roadway’s tracing characteristics embedded in the landscape 4 Figure 2: Sailing Interaction Space of a coincidental group of different automated vehicles as scenario draft Vehicle-Roadway-Relations V2I (as frame conditions by the road infrastructure affecting the driving actors) Passenger car ( a2 ) of a vehicle class (B 3 ) moving onto roadways of a distinctive category (III 2(G) ): B 3a2 _III 2(G) Highly automated car Kfz ( a3 ) of a vehicle class (B 3 ) moving onto a roadway of category (III 2G ): B 3a3 _III 2G Partly autonomous moving car ( a4 ) of a light vehicle class (B 1 ) onto a special equipped roadway (III 2G ): B 1a4 _III 2G Interactions between moving vehicles V2V (bilateral and multilateral setting of conditions) Initial and reactive actions by involved vehicles of different vehicle classes equipped on different levels of automation standards within the current sailing interaction space B 1a4 -B 3a2 Traffic actions by the involved vehicles (coincidental conditions of traffic behaviour by different automated cars) Autonomous trajectory seeking: Prediction to beware counter moving traffic: Overtaking manœuvre without driver´s assistance tool: Side distance keeping in respect of counter moving traffic: Side distance keeping in respect of parallel moving traffic: Forward braking distance control: Forward collision alert: Backward distance alert in respect of following traffic: Driver´s awareness, presence or absence (human role of driver´s tasks controlling a vehicle) Driver fully controlling vehicle movement: Driver highly supported by Driving Assistance Systems: Driver off duty (hands and eyes off) but ready for take over (Human-Machine-Interaction): Not figured in that scenario: No driver present: Vehicle carries passengers: No Person in the car: Infrastructure Equipment for Interconnectivity I2V Guiding wire line surface integrated: Guiding wire line kerb integrated: Wireless option: transponder installed on lighting pylons: 5G-Mobile Radio Net: Sailing interaction space of a coincidental group of vehicles 5 G B 1a4 -B 3a2 B 1a4 _III 2G D a2 -B 1a2 B 1a2 _III 2G D a2 _III 2G B 2a2 _III 2G C a3 _III 2G _III 2G B 3a2 _III 2(G) B 3a3 _III 2G Basic scene(ry) … … Figure 2: Sailing Interaction Space of a coincidental group of different automated vehicles as scenario draft Scenery: Hamburg-Diebsteich, a scene caught on a Monday’s noon in June Automation SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 61 • Roadway infrastructure to master typical traffic function within the road network • Roadway surrounding tract in respect of traffic generating land uses and external risks • Rhythm of daily traffic flows occurring onto sections of the road network • Local caused circumstances by the natural environment and the built-up area • List of mobile groups of traffic participants and their movement behaviours and handicaps • List of vulnerable road users and their special safety needs • List of supporting means of moving which are not or weakly motorized • Standardized scenes of driving manœuvres as they can be often observed • Systematization of interactions between traffic participants Approaches to generate traffic oriented scenarios First of all assumptions have to be declared about the expected future traffic scenes, what has been derived from observations of daily traffic scenes and what is anticipated as future technological options of automated car driving: • The estimated deployment of automation products as car-equipment on the sales-market as hint at the mix of vehicles on different levels of automation for a certain horizon of implementation (until 2030, 2040 and so on) • Selecting tracts of land-use-environments with typical traffic occurences onto the road network • In this context, future applications of automation technologies and functions integrated in vehicles should be interrogated in respect of their applicability for a tract like a suburban residential area or an overcrowded central district. • Finding of representative sceneries within them • Cutting interaction boxes of road-sections within such sceneries (like the surrounding of an urban intersection as figured out) from the view-point of daily road traffic • In a further step one can use the tool-box of listings as mentioned above to generate variants of scenes in which traffic participants could be periodically or sporadically or potentially involved in risky traffic interactions • Traffic scenes have a volatile constituency of participants involved and a variable shape of action area. It deals with “Sailing Interaction Spaces” in respect of processing and timing bilateral and multilateral actions. That reminds one of an amoeba. Construction of an In-situ- Scenario as guideline for test arrangements Scenario generating means combining static and dynamic recurring frame conditions as rules of an interaction box respectively. “playing ground” with the behaviour of traffic participating players coping with tasks of driving or moving in a- consecution of interactions between them. The scenario depicted in figure 4 dealt with the task how an automated driving system would react if vulnerable road users will be the initial actors on the scene. The short story hereby tells a scenario of interactions between a cyclist as initiative actor at the beginning, a heavy-duty truck as reactive actor and pedestrians as independent players. The interactions between them take place in an interaction box as- part of an intersection as depicted in figure-3. The traffic light gives the starting signal when it shows green release for going straight ahead or turning to the right. The initial actor is a cyclist waiting for green light at the stop line while a heavy truck is approaching. The cyclist has two options to direct himself: forwards straight ahead or turning right. If both participants are going for turning towards right, it will be a tremendous challenge for an autonomized heavy vehicle detecting the forefield, predicting the behaviours of the others and controlling his own driving dynamics. This story leads to a setting for test arrangements proving the automatic system of the vehicle based on requirements of the “real world” which cannot be done convincingly by computer-simulation only. 6 Tramway Stop Residential block Direction downtown Direction outskirts Car dealer Commercial parking lot Furniture sales Direction urban transit motorway 6 Tramway Stop Residential block Direction downtown Direction outskirts Car dealer Commercial parking lot Furniture sales Direction urban transit motorway Figure 3: Mobility groups meet onto an intersection of urban main roads frequenting their moving spaces regularly while traffic light shows green for northbound-southbound passage and for turning right of cars crossing pedestrians pathways. SCIENCE & RESEARCH Automation International Transportation | Collection 2020 62 Conclusion and outlook Therefore transferring information about impacts on traffic behaviour and side effects on mobility activities will be essential. Better information given to the involved groups would not be sufficient if thereby a lack of basic knowledge about traffic actions and events seems to be manifest. Before enlightning information can given it requires a wide range of testing arrangements based on a systematically developped theory of automated road traffic. In the end, not only automotive engineers and suppliers should be entrusted with automatization. Several disciplines and expert groups as well as representatives of somehow involved mobility groups should be participated in the procedures of implementation. That refers nation-wide to the general regulatory frame, which has to put into force or takes aim at regional or local regulations to be edicted by public administrative entities. Somewhere the rebuilding of road equipment could be necessary to provide interconnectivity between cars and infrastructure. Other where the traffic network has to be reorganised in order to minimize conflicts between the diversified groups of traffic participants resp. road users. So one can conclude that advanced automatization of vehicles and other transport means will affect not only car owners and users, it will provoke a system change in usage the public roadways and the procedures of road traffic as well. ■ SOURCES Heinz Dörr, Viktoria Marsch, Andreas Romstorfer (2017): Automatisiertes Fahren im Mobilitätssystem. Ein Spannungsbogen zwischen Ethik, Mobilitätsausübung, technischem Fortschritt und Markterwartungen. Internationales Verkehrswesen (69) 3, pp. 40-44 Heinz Dörr, Viktoria Marsch, Andreas Romstorfer (2017): Automatisiertes Fahren in urbaner Umgebung. Herausforderungen für die Stadt- und Verkehrsplanung. Transforming Cities (2) 3, pp. 47-53 Heinz Dörr, Viktoria Marsch, Andreas Romstorfer (2018): Automatisierter Straßenverkehr und spurgebundener ÖPNV. Betroffenheiten, Verantwortlichkeiten, Handlungsbedarfe. Der Nahverkehr (36) 3, pp. 58-65 Heinz Dörr, Viktoria Marsch und Andreas Romstorfer (2019): Automatisiert bewegen durch Stadt und Land - Gesellschaftliche Implikationen der Implementierung von ITS-Technologien in das Verkehrsgeschehen des zukünftigen Mobilitätssystems.. REAL CORP 2019 24th International Conference on Urban Planning and Regional Development in the Information Society (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology), Tagungsband pp.111-121, online: www.corp.at Heinz Dörr und Andreas Romstorfer (2020): Theoretische und praktische Ansätze zur Implementierung des automatisierten Straßenverkehrs in das Mobilitätssystem. In: Heike Proff (Hrsg.): Neue Dimensionen der Mobilität. Tagungsband zum 11. Wissenschaftsforum Mobilität 2019 der Universität Duisburg-Essen, pp. 719-743 Heinz Dörr, Dr. Consulting engineer spatial and traffic planning, arp-planning. consulting.research, Vienna (AT) heinz.doerr@arp.co.at Andreas Romstorfer, Dipl.-Ing. (FH), MA arp-planning.consulting.research, Vienna (AT) a.romstorfer@arp.co.at Figure 4: By vulnerable road users initially deployed scenario of detection and prediction in the phase of green-release for straight ahead or turning right traffic of heavy-duty vehicles, cyclists and pedestrians Consecution of scenes t0 to t5 by interacting actors: t5: Pedestrian´s crossing pathway cleared by pedestrians, truck can pass t4: Pedestrians initial, truck reactive, cyclist waiting for passing to bicycle stripe t3: Cyclist forced to be waiting - following truck reactive stopping t2: Pedestrians begin with crossing - cyclist reactive for a while stopping t1: Cyclist starts selecting direction - truck reactive t0: Traffic light switches to green Type of Vulnerable Road User Group: Cyclist waiting at the stop line Pedestrian unrestrained but hidden Pedestrian waiting but in risky position Person with child running after Person with child pushing a perambulator Person moving with a wheelchair Presumed trajectories of them Safety distance space required Detection and prediction requirements: Proposed trajectory detected by truck Vehicle classes and automation levels: Proposed trajectory observed by cyclist Trajectory anticipation of subsequent scene By an automated truck By human awareness Bus highly assisted a3: Distance keeping in focus Lane keeping and clear road surveillance Grey marked cars and cycles not directly involved Cars are sorting for proposed direction Side and backward distance control Function of Interaction-box: Side surveillance to prevent unlucky incidents Part of an intersection for inflowing traffic Fan out and sorting directions of traffic Entry into interaction-box a2 a3 a2 a2 Static Interaction-box of southern inflow section with sailing interaction space a4 End of interaction-box Tramway stop platform Pedestrian´s walk Truck with trailer highly automated a4 a3 International Transportation | Collection 2020 63 Environmental effects of the Covid-19 lockdown The example of an EU online convention Virtual meeting, Transport modes, Environment budget Travel restrictions and curfews due to Covid-19 have motivated mobility researchers around the world to consider the impact of the lockdown for the population, the transport system and particular modes of transport as well as for different transport branches. With the help of activity journals, the authors of this report analysed how daily behaviour and everyday mobility have changed through the curfews, especially for the group of students. The following article highlights briefly which reliefs can arise due to these changes in travel activities, both for the global environment and the individual budget. This shall be demonstrated by the example of an online convention, a virtual meeting among experts, as part of a long-planned and digitally realised closing event of an EU-Project. Matthias Gather, Claudia Hille I n course of the Interreg Project “Sub- Nodes”, which deals with the improvement of the regional accessibility by establishing secondary transport hubs (= subnodes) in specific regions, a big closing event was planned in Brussels in July 2020 with representatives of the European Union, the several project partners and also numerous external guests. Due to the travel restrictions, it was decided to realise this event as an online convention on 26 May 2020. In this online convention 91 attendants from 14 different countries participated (figure 1). With Brussels as a virtual venue, more than 100,000 passenger-kilometers (Pkm) of transport performance was saved for all outward and return journeys (table 1). Assuming that travel distances of more than 500 km linear distance are flown, 86,000 km traveled on airplanes were calculated. The remaining journeys were spread equally to car and railway travels, which resulted in 10,900 km covered on each mode of transportation, respectively (with a calculated detour factor of 1.3 respectively towards the calculated linear distance). Next, saved greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) were calculated. Besides carbon dioxide emissions, the emissions contain other greenhouse gases as well as volatile carbon monoxides, hydrocarbons, nitric oxides and particles. The underlying emission factors are based on values given by the German Environment Agency (2018) and amount in total to around 20 tons. Another underlying assumption was that participants with a single travel distance of more than 200 km (linear distance) would have booked an overnight stay at a hotel in Brussels. Using values by the Institute for Applied Ecology (2013) further 1,150 kg GHG-emissions were saved by not needing accommodation. Altogether, almost 23 tons of GHG-emissions were avoided with the online-convention. With the aid of comparative studies, CO 2 -emissions for the realisation of the online-event were also calculated and amounted in a little more than 50 kg for all 91 participants. Finally, directly saved travel and accommodation expenses were calculated. The costs for accommodation were computed Photo: J.C. Gellidon / Unsplash Covid-19 SCIENCE & RESEARCH SCIENCE & RESEARCH Covid-19 International Transportation | Collection 2020 64 based on the refundable expenses according to the German Travel Expenses Act (BRKG). For the calculation of travel costs, several assumptions have been made. For the expenses of a car trip, the defined rate of 0.30 EUR/ km in the BRKG was considered. For train journeys, the average fare by the German Rail (DB) was taken as a basis, amounting to 0.20 EUR/ km. For flights, 0.30 EUR/ km was used as well. Yet, it has to be noted that fares for flight tickets vary greatly depending on connection and airline. Using the values above, saved travel costs amount to 30,000 EUR, and saved accommodation costs around 9,000 EUR. In total, more than 40,000 EUR direct travel and accommodation expenses were saved (table 2). All in all, the calculations displayed here can of course only be a rudimentary calculation to give an example on the extent expenditures were reduced in the course of the lockdown. On the cost side, the time required for arrival and departure could have also been included. On the benefit side, it needs to be questioned if the benefit of an online convention is comparable to a physical meeting with all project partners and participants. Also, it needs to be considered whether more than 90 participants from all over Europe would have traveled to Brussels in person, or how many persons canceled the planned participation due to the online character. Nevertheless, numerous participants attended the event and that participation has been evaluated as interesting and worthwhile. The objectives could be reached with minimal expenditure for the individual budget as well as for the global environment. Saved distance Greenhouse gases Carbon monoxide Volatile Hydrocarbon Nitric oxides Particles km kg Railway, long-distance travel Calculation basis for emissions (g/ Pkm) 32 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.001 Sum 10,866.70 347.73 0.22 0.00 0.43 0.01 Car Calculation basis for emissions (g/ Pkm) 147 1.00 0.14 0.43 0.007 Sum 10,866.70 1,597.40 10.87 1.52 4.67 0.08 Airplane Calculation basis for emissions (g/ Pkm) 230 0.48 0.13 1.01 0.014 Sum 86,108.00 19,804.84 41.33 11.19 86.97 1.21 Accommodation Calculation basis (kg CO 2 -eq./ overnight stay) 67 Overnight stays 17,2 Sum 1,152.40 Total 107,841.40 22,902.38 52.42 12.72 92.08 1.29 Table 1: Calculation of the emissions balance of the SubNodes-Online-Convention (Source: own calculation) Figure 1: Saved travels due to the EU online convention on “Regional Mobility beyond TEN-T” Covid-19 SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 65 However, EU-projects greatly and significantly depend on the personal exchange between all project partners. The dialogue strengthens the intercultural competence of all partners and also the European cohesion. A virtual convention can indeed make a knowledge transfer among each other possible, but also informal exchange and the possibility for networking are crucial for conferences. The complete conversion to virtual conventions can, therefore, be no sustainable model for future projects of European cooperation. The presented example still showed how such an online event can be successful and what kind of reliefs can be reached. The potential saving effects lead to the question of how online formats could be used and supported stronger in the future. In the light of the global climate crisis, a simple “business as usual” approach after the coronavirus pandemic seems hardly possible. In fact, in times of the lockdowns became apparent which opportunities the digitalisation offers regarding the reduction of CO 2 -emissions. ■ REFERENCES DNR - Deutscher Klimaschutzring (eds.) (2019): Digitalisierung. Neue Hoffnung oder dunkle Bedrohung. Infografik. In: MOVUM. Debattenmagazin der Umweltbewegung. Berlin Hille, Claudia; Gather, Matthias (2020): Mobilität und Zeitverwendung in Zeiten von Covid-19. Ergebnisse einer empirischen Erhebung mittels Aktivitätentagebüchern. Berichte des Instituts Verkehr und Raum, Band 28, Erfurt Öko-Institut e.V. (eds.) (2013): Vergleichende Klimabilanz von Motorcaravanreisen - heute & morgen. Darmstadt SubNodes - Interreg Central Europe (2017-2020). www.interreg-central. eu/ Content.Node/ subnodes.html Umweltbundesamt (2018): Emissionsdaten - Emissionen im Personenverkehr. www.umweltbundesamt.de/ themen/ verkehr-laerm/ emis sionsdaten#verkehrsmittelvergleich_personenverkehr (access: 23 June 2020) Matthias Gather, Prof. Dr. Transport policy and regional planning, Erfurt University of Applied Sciences matthias.gather@fh-erfurt.de Claudia Hille Transport policy and regional planning, Erfurt University of Applied Sciences claudia.hille@fh-erfurt.de Saved distance km Saved travel costs EUR Railway, long-distance travel Calculation basis for costs (EUR/ Pkm) 0.20 EUR Sum 10,866.70 2,173.34 EUR Car Calculation basis for costs (EUR/ Pkm) 0.30 EUR Sum 10,866.70 3,260.01 EUR Airplane Calculation basis for costs (EUR/ Pkm) 0.30 EUR Sum 86,108.00 25,832.40 EUR Saved accommodation Calculation basis for costs per overnight stay 67 overnight stays 135 EUR Sum 9.045 EUR Total 40,310.75 EUR Table 2: Calculation of monetary costs (own calculation) Karlsruher Trade Fair Centre 1 - 3 December 2020 Organisers Are you ready for the future of public transport? + + + digital transformation + + + Covid-19 + + + traffic management + + + passenger information systems + + + human resources management + + + e-mobility + + + sustainability + + + passenger confidence + + + security + + + fare management + + + mobility-as-a-service + + + artificial intelligence + + + autonomous vehicles + + + NEW DATE www.it-trans.org Germany SCIENCE & RESEARCH Tourist mobility International Transportation | Collection 2020 66 Development of mobility behaviour in tourism Evaluation of requirements in mobility behaviour of tourists in rural and inner-city regions Transport requirements, Public transport, Rural and inner-city, Effects of new trends in the transport sector, Holiday travel, Modal split The continuous growth of tourism is one of the main causes of an increase in traffic volume in rural and inner-city regions. Taking into account the Paris Agreement on climate protection, pushing forward with sustainable mobility concepts is an obligatory task in the tourist industry. In order to be able to develop future-oriented measures with regard to the accessibility of destinations, a primary goal was an in-depth evaluation of tourist mobility behaviour requirements and the development of a requirements catalogue based on this evaluation. Marcel Weber W hich innovative mobility offers promote sustainable tourism? What are the main points of criticism concerning current mobility service and what improvement potential can be derived from this criticism? What tourist mobility behaviour can be identified? Which needs, problems and wishes will have to be taken into account in the future in order to reduce traffic and at the same time not limit mobility through this reduction? Due to international climate goals and in the context of a continuously increasing trend development in the tourism industry and tourist arrivals over the past years, these and other questions regarding the implementation of innovative sustainable mobility offers cannot be left entirely unanswered. There is a need for an integrated overall concept whose goal it is to not only consider sustainable mobility solutions with regard to the accessibility of holiday destinations or on-site mobility but one that also seeks to develop long-term and future-oriented service offers. Taking into account the changed requirements in tourist mobility behaviour is an obligatory task and out of this the development of a demand-oriented and sustainable mobility offer which can counteract a large part of the CO 2 emissions caused by tourism traffic. Accordingly, it is no longer a question of how sustainable mobility offers can be implemented or optimised. To a greater degree, it is a question of which needs and requirements with regard to future mobility in accordance with political-strategic goals must be taken into account in order to provide fundamentally sustainable mobility offers. Requirements analysis taking into account the season With the worldwide increase in industrialisation and urbanisation of conurbations, a tourist trend can be observed that is moving in the direction of holidays in less populated regions with a connection to sporting activities. Regions that offer tourists a diverse and unique landscape as well as activities close to nature are of particular importance. Due to this trend development, a requirement analysis must take into account that activities close to nature as well as landscape pre-trip phase arrival mobility at the place of stay departure post-trip phase •information •booking •mode of transport •travel planning •drive to the airport •park if necessary •stay at the airport •flight to the airport •change to place of stay •round trip at the place of stay •taxi •rental car •shuttlebus •drive from the place of stay to the airport •stay at the airport •fly to the home airport •change to the place of residence •customer service •customer loyalty •complaint mobility chain travel chain Figure 1: Mobility chain in tourism-[1] Tourist mobility SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 67 areas differ according to region and season, and that the differentiated tourism figures must therefore be considered separately. Against this background, it is essential for the analysis to catagorise the requirements of tourist mobility behaviour in terms of summer and winter. This is because summer tourism is mainly characterised by activities such as mountain climbing, hiking or water sports, and winter tourism is more characterised by activities such as skiing, snowshoeing and snowboarding. These different activities carry with them different requirements and needs in mobility as well as in the use and selection of means of transport. To define solution approaches, it was essential to analyse indepth the requirements and needs of tourists along the entire mobility chain in terms of information and booking options, luggage transport and the required on-site mobility (see figure 1). Different quantitative and qualitative data collections were carried out as part of empirical social research. In addition to polling tourists using questionnaires, the centrally used methods also included expert-interviews with players from the tourism and transport sectors. The Innsbruck Airport and the Austrian province of Tyrol provided exemplary examination areas. Tourists as trendsetters for sustainable mobility offers The development of sustainable mobility offers is subject to a significant impact from the changing social strata. This results in hidden challenges for rural and inner-city transport companies; challenges which are not straight away recognisable but are nonetheless present and go far beyond the usual understanding of mobility offers. In order for innovative sustainable mobility offers to be developed and implemented at all, changing social strata must be taken into account. Regular evaluation of the requirements and needs in mobility behaviour is indispensable for this. For the tourism industry and transport companies, this is on the one hand an asset in terms of technical renewals or innovations, but on the other hand it continually poses questions. Tourists significantly contribute to the impact on changing mobility behaviour. Increasing internationality definitely has an impact on the mobility of people living in the destinations. This influence results both from the offers as well as from the experiences and habits of the tourist’s home regions and the holiday motive (see figure 2). As a result of the on-site mobility of tourists and local residents, different requirements and needs with regard to mobility meet in the holiday destinations. This encounter underscores further challenges for transport policy in terms of the consideration and adaptation of transport infrastructure but is at the same time a benefit for needs-oriented and sustainable mobility concepts. A sustainable and needs-oriented mobility concept not only increases the overall attractiveness of a holiday destination or the achievement of climate goals, but also as was evident from the evaluations, in the future an ever stronger societal change in awareness-raising can be expected. Because of its geographical location and diverse landscape, the province of Tyrol enjoys a special status on an international level among tourists. This strengthened the choice of Tyrol as a study area, and due to the wide international scope of the region as France Spain United States of America China Italy Turkey Mexiko Germany Thailand United Kingdom Japan Austria Greece Hong Kong (China) Malaysia 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 million of worldwide arrival 89,4 82,8 79,6 62,9 62,1 45,8 41,4 38,9 38,3 36,3 31,2 30,8 30,1 29,3 25,9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Tirol Salzburg Wien Steiermark Kärnten Oberösterreich Niederösterreich Vorarlberg Burgenland 12,3 7,9 7,5 4,2 3,2 3,1 3,0 2,5 1,1 million of arrival in austria Figure 2: The top destination by international tourist arrivals 2018 [2, 3] winter holiday travel summer holiday travel free use of public transport in the by bus and train n= 110 73 % faster arrival by train than with your own car organised baggage transport n= 102 66 % no loss of flexibility n= 226 67 % n= 111 88 % n= 106 51 % n= 114 68 % packages, which includes the journey by bus and train n= 117 71 % n= 251 80 % faster arrival by train than with your own car n= 251 85 % n= 245 60 % n= 246 71 % n= 243 66 % packages, which includes the journey by bus and train free use of public transport in the by bus and train no loss of flexibility organised baggage transport Figure 3: Survey about service features of a web portal or an application SCIENCE & RESEARCH Tourist mobility International Transportation | Collection 2020 68 a holiday destination, it was essential for the development of solution approaches. Cross-regional multimodal information and booking systems as a future opportunity The time when tourists sought out a travel agency or informed themselves by phone and booked their trip at the desired destination are simply a thing of the past. The Internet is gaining importance as an information and booking tool and is bit by bit replacing the classic travel agency. One reason for the decline of the travel agency as an information and booking facility can be explained by demographic change and advancing digitalisation. Nowadays, tourists want to be able to call up the services offered at the destinations bundled in an application or web portal and book them immediately if they so desire. Travel portals with integrated customer comment or an online map service definitely influence tourist booking, either as a convincing motivation for booking online or due to lack of interest in booking at the holiday destination. The criteria when booking means of transport take into account time (e.g. expeditious arrival at the destination), flexibility (e.g. the means of transport must be available uninterrupted and regularly) and convenience (e.g. an on-site ticket for all means of transport). At present, however, it can be stated that the possibility for information and booking of tourist services is not equally available on the Internet. For a fundamental step in the direction of a sustainable mobility offer, it is of great importance for the destinations to implement a comfortable and clear web portal or application in order to make a combination of different services equally available to tourists. For the destinations, an integrated implementation of a cross-regional multimodal information and booking system as well as an integrated Internet strategy is necessary. This will require close and intensive cooperation between the players at all levels. Innovative mobility offer through door-to-door luggage services faltering Luggage mobility represents a vital asset for tourists and has a significant impact on most processes in the mobility chain (see figure 3). All basic mobility needs that arise during the travel chain are closely related to luggage transport regardless of whether it is the arrival and departure with all of the luggage or a part of the luggage for leisure activities at the destination. In the wake of holiday trends and increasing numbers of tourists, these increasing logistical delivery and service demands result in diverse planning challenges for the logistics and mobility industry. Thereby, compact travel web portals or applications are of interest for services related to information about the destination and/ or services such as hotel booking at the desired destination. Also an expansion of these services through a doorto-door luggage service makes it easier to travel to and from a holiday destination and pre-trip phase arrival and departure phase Mobility at the place of stay solutions Approach 1 Digital networking of information Approach 2 Securing and networking tourist Approach 3 cross regional networking webportal application booking pickup service ressource saving autonom intelligently flexibility group transport integration luggage service service performance traffic relief affordable convenient individual autonom Innovative baggage logistics system suburban mobility and booking systems flexible service oriented shuttle service convention intermodal sustainability real time information optimization approach Figure 4: Overview of the solution approaches Tourist mobility SCIENCE & RESEARCH International Transportation | Collection 2020 69 besides increasing the attractiveness of the holiday destination, it can also ease the burden on transport operators and thus increase efficiency in operation. As can be seen in the evaluation of the arrival and departure phase, tourists in the winter season are interested in using a door-to-door luggage service, especially for sports luggage (e.g. ski equipment, snowboard etc.). Combination of public and individual transport to increase holiday quality For on-site mobility there is often a need for a combination of public and individual transport. Above all, tourists want more flexibility for their mobility at the holiday location. Irregular interval timetables are counterproductive for a sustainable mobility offer and only serve to promote individual transport. Focus on a regularly operating shuttle service at the destination between tourist accommodation and public transport hubs (e.g. airport, train stations etc.) must therefore be guaranteed. Even on holiday, environmental awareness has developed among tourists who would like to take advantage of sustainable and environmentally-friendly mobility: insofar as attractive mobility alternatives are offered. In order to increase acceptance, at least a halfhourly transport interval should be ensured. According to individual needs as well as for a comprehensive offer, it is also recommended that a car-sharing model based on the free-floating principle should be provided, which tourists according to their needs can switch to at a traffic junction. Conclusion: three essential principles for a sustainable mobility concept The result of the evaluation of requirements in mobility behaviour is a short and sweet delineation of the prerequisites for a needsoriented sustainable mobility offer along the mobility chain (see figure 4). It was therefore possible to make visible those places that lead to an improvement in tourism mobility through innovative solutions as well as the facilitation of the politicalstrategic objective. Hence, the key requirements are a web portal or an application in which tourist services with a broad spectrum should be bundled and equally available. There is also a need to recognise that special service offers substantially support and simplify the holiday trip. This can be achieved through an innovative logistics concept in the form of a door-to-door luggage service or an intelligent combination of public and individual transport. The study devoted itself to this topic over a year by posing various questions The results interpreted in this contentrelated short version originates from our own study. This study can be examined in an in-depth extended version. If required, please contact the author. ■ LITERATURE [1] Mobility chain in tourism. Adapted from: Schad, Helmut; Ohnmacht, Timo; Schönhauser, Nora; Amstutz, Marc (2008): Anbindung Schweizer Tourismusorte mit öffentlichem Verkehr - Situation und Verbesserungsvorschläge entlang der Mobilitätskette, ITW Working Paper Mobilität 03/ 2008, Hochschule Luzern, Luzern [2] Statistik Austria (2019): Arrivals by federal state in calendar year 2018, Version 2019, DOI: https: / / www.statistik.at/ web_en/ statistics/ Economy/ tourism/ accommodation/ arrivals_overnight_stays/ index.html [3] World Tourism Organisation (2019): International Tourism Highlights, 2019 Edition, UNWTO, Madrid, DOI: https: / / doi. org/ 10.8111/ 978284421152 Marcel Weber, Dipl.-Ing. Project Assistant, Institute of Transportation, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna (AT) marcel.weber@tuwien.ac.at FACE THE CHALLENGES OF MOBILITY Founded in 1949 - bound forward to face the challenges of tomorrow‘s mobility: With an editorial board of renowned scientists and an advisory board of directors, CEOs and managers from all transport industry areas, »Internationales Verkehrswesen« and »International Transportation« - the worldwide distributed English-language edition - rank as leading cross-system transport journals in Europe for both academic research and practical application. Rail and road, air transport and waterway traffic — »International Transportation« and »Internationales Verkehrswesen« stimulate a worldwide interdisciplinary discussion of the numerous defiances in mobility, transport, and logistics. The magazines are targeted at planners and decision makers in municipalities, communities, public authorities and transportation companies, at engineers, scientists and students. With peer-reviewed scientific articles and technical contributions the magazines keep readers abreast of background conditions, current trends and future prospects - such as digitalization, automation, and the increasing challenges of urban traffic. Read more about the magazines and the subscription conditions: www.internationales-verkehrswesen.de www.international-transportation.com INTERNATIONALES VERKEHRSWESEN AND INTERNATIONAL TR ANSPORTATION »Internationales Verkehrswesen« and »International Transportation« are published by Trialog Publishers Verlagsgesellschaft, D-Baiersbronn IV_Image_halb_quer.indd 1 31.01.2020 14: 40: 12 International Transportation | Collection 2020 70 SCIENCE & RESEARCH Academics Projects in a nutshell Overview of selected mobility research projects Zero-emission commercial flights within 15 years? A irbus has revealed three concepts for the world’s first zeroemission commercial aircraft which could enter service by 2035. These concepts each represent a different approach to achieving zero-emission flight, exploring various technology pathways and aerodynamic configurations. All of these concepts rely on hydrogen as a primary power source - an option which Airbus believes holds exceptional promise as a clean aviation fuel and is likely to be a solution for aerospace and many other industries to meet their climate-neutral targets. The three concepts - all codenamed “ZEROe” - for a first climate neutral zero-emission commercial aircraft include: • A turbofan design (120-200 passengers) with a range of 2,000+ nautical miles, capable of operating transcontinentally and powered by a modified gas-turbine engine running on hydrogen, rather than jet fuel, through combustion. The liquid hydrogen will be stored and distributed via tanks located behind the rear pressure bulkhead. • A turboprop design (up to 100 passengers) using a turboprop engine instead of a turbofan and also powered by hydrogen combustion in modified gas-turbine engines, which would be capable of traveling more than 1,000 nautical miles. • A “blended-wing body” design (up to 200 passengers) concept in which the wings merge with the main body of the aircraft with a range similar to that of the turbofan concept. The exceptionally wide fuselage opens up multiple options for hydrogen storage and distribution, and for cabin layout. “These concepts will help us explore and mature the design and layout of the world’s first climate-neutral, zero-emission commercial aircraft, which we aim to put into service by 2035”, said Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury. www.airbus.com ZEROe-Blended-Wing-Body concept Photo: Airbus Graphite instead of gold: Thin layers for better hydrogen cars G old-coated bipolar plates (BiP) in fuel cells are expensive and complex to manufacture. The Fraunhofer Institute for Material and Beam Technology IWS Dresden, the German automotive group Daimler and the Finnish steel company Outokumpu Nirosta have now developed an economical alternative for rapid mass production. Instead of gold, they coat the bipolar plates with a very thin carbon coating. This concept is well suited for mass production and can significantly reduce manufacturing costs. In addition, it contributes to the development of environmentally friendly vehicles. Fuel cells operate like mini power plants: They are supplied with hydrogen and oxygen and use them to generate water, electricity and heat in a chemical reaction. Various designs can be considered. Widely used models are PEM fuel cells. They contain stacks consisting of many individual cells, each with a proton exchange membrane (PEM) in the middle. To the right and left of this membrane there are electrodes with catalysts, a gas diffusion layer (GDL) and bipolar plates on both sides. Hydrogen and oxygen flow through these plates into the cell. The plates consist of two stainless steel half plates each, on which special structures for gas flow and heat dissipation are embossed in a forming process and subsequently welded together. The carbon layer achieves a contact resistance similar to the gold coating. If the engineers further improve their process up to mass production, the coating will conduct electricity at least as well as the precious metal, possibly even better - at half the cost of coating. www.iws.fraunhofer.de/ en.html The Daimler bipolar plate (above) is coated with a carbon layer (below), reducing contact resistance and simultaneously increasing corrosion resistance . Photo: Fraunhofer IWS Dresden International Transportation | Collection 2020 71 Academics SCIENCE & RESEARCH Green shipping: Hybrid propulsion at the highest safety level A unique battery system for efficient fuel consumption in shipping is now approved for operation. EASy Marine adapts flexibly to limited space conditions, increases safety on the water and reduces emissions. The system solves three problems of inland and deep-sea shipping worldwide. Michael Deutmeyer, Managing Director of the German battery manufacturer EAS Batteries, christened the mechanical modular battery concept for the maritime industry on the occasion of its completed DNV-GL certification at the production site in Nordhausen and released it for serial production. The modular space concept of the battery system enables almost every ship owner to convert their propulsion system to a fueloptimized hybrid system. This is because the battery design can be adapted to almost any type of ship architecture - like Lego for adults. The modules can be flexibly combined. rigid battery racks are now a thing of the past. With EASy Marine modules, it is possible to reproduce steps, so that even sloping walls are no longer a space problem. Up to 1,500 volts can be connected in series - fifty percent more than usual. The cell chemistry of EASy Marine modules is based on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) which is considered to be extremely safe: The battery can become hot when in a short circuit, overcharging or mechanical damage to the cell - but it does not burn, the manufacturer asserts. While burning LI batteries cannot be extinguished, EASy Marine rules out such a drama on the open sea from the outset. www.eas-batteries.com EASy Marine battery stack Photo: EAS Batteries Global rail market continues to grow T he rail supply industry has experienced consistent long-term growth over the last few decades. While the Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted this growth path by causing lower passenger and freight volumes for rail operators, the attractiveness of rail will allow the sector to recover quickly and continue its positive development. This is the assessment of the authors of the “World Rail Market Study 2020”, which Roland Berger conducted on behalf of UNIFE, the Association of the European Rail Supply Industry. At the end of 2019, rail transport reached a record market value of EUR 177 billion. The sector has experienced annual growth of 3.6 percent since 2017, largely driven by significant investments in rolling stock, infrastructure and rail control. In addition, the number of vehicles and amount of track kilometers in operation - known as the installed base - has grown significantly. Impressively, the global rail network has been extended by 23,300 kilometers and the number of vehicles has increased by 20,000 units since 2018. In the first half of 2020, however, the Covid-19 pandemic triggered an eight percent drop in transport volumes. Lower passenger and freight volumes resulted in postponements and cancellations of orders, as well as a lower services volume. Despite these challenges, the resilience of and continued need for rail mean that experts expect an average annual growth rate of 2.3 percent until 2025 (including the eight percent drop). As a result, the total market volume is expected to reach EUR 204 billion by 2025, based on an assumption of a rapid recovery of the market, known as the V-case scenario. Prior to 2020, much of the rail growth was taking place in the Asia-Pacific region and Western Europe, with respective contributions of 5.3 percent and 3.8 percent to the positive development of the entire market. In the upcoming years, CIS and Eastern Europe will add considerable market volumes, encouraged by government initiatives such as the Rail Baltica project. Latin America has the highest growth forecast in the rail control market on account of significant investment in the freight sector. The market for rail supply is also expected to see sustained demand from mature markets like Nafta and Western Europe. Overall, rail control and infrastructure are forecast to grow at the strongest rates, while rolling stock and services will remain the largest segments. To download the World Rail Market Study Executive Summary and to order the UNIFE World Rail Market Study see www.unife.org The major areas of growth Picture: Roland Berger International Transportation | Collection 2020 72 SCIENCE & RESEARCH Academics Clean fuel from sunlight, CO 2 and water R esearchers from the University of Cambridge have developed a standalone device that converts sunlight, carbon dioxide and water into a carbon-neutral fuel, without requiring any additional components or electricity. The device is a significant step toward achieving artificial photosynthesis - mimicking the ability of plants to convert sunlight into energy. It is based on an advanced ‘photosheet’ technology and converts sunlight, carbon dioxide and water into oxygen and formic acid - a storable fuel that can be either be used directly or be converted into hydrogen. The results, represent a new method for the conversion of carbon dioxide into clean fuels. The wireless device could be scaled up and used on energy ‘farms’ similar to solar farms, producing clean fuel using sunlight and water. However, it is challenging to produce these clean fuels without unwanted by-products. “Storage of gaseous fuels and separation of by-products can be complicated - we want to get to the point where we can cleanly produce a liquid fuel that can also be easily stored and transported,” said Professor Erwin Reisner, the paper’s senior author. In 2019, researchers from Reisner’s group developed a solar reactor based on an ‘artificial leaf ’ design, which also uses sunlight, carbon dioxide and water to produce a fuel, known as syngas. The new technology looks and behaves quite similarly to the artificial leaf but works in a different way and produces formic acid. While the artificial leaf used components from solar cells, the new device doesn’t require these components and relies solely on photocatalysts embedded on a sheet to produce a so-called photocatalyst sheet. The sheets are made up of semiconductor powders. In addition, this new technology is more robust and produces clean fuel that is easier to store and shows potential for producing fuel products at scale. The test unit is 20 square centimetres in size, but the researchers say that it should be relatively straightforward to scale it up to several square metres. In addition, the formic acid can be accumulated in solution, and be chemically converted into different types of fuel. Qian Wang, & al.: Molecularly engineered photocatalyst sheet for scalable solar formate production from carbon dioxide and water. In: Nature Energy (2020). DOI: 10.1038/ s41560-020-0678-6 www.cam.ac.uk First author Dr Qian Wang Photo: University of Cambridge Photo: Jeshoots.com/ Unsplash Fly on holiday in view of climate change? S ince 1992, global warming and its effects have been discussed at international level, and despite many efforts, it has not yet been possible to stop its progress. “Climate change is the greatest challenge mankind has ever faced, and there is no way to avert the threat at the last minute, as is the case with diplomatic crises, for example”, Dr. Anna Luisa Lippold points out in her dissertation “Climate change and individual moral duties” submitted at Ruhr University Bochum. She tackled a question of great concern to many: What individual moral obligations do we have in view of climate change? Are we still allowed to fly on holiday? Eat meat? Take milk in our coffee? “Yes and no”, says Lippold, “the problem is much bigger.” Even if all people worldwide were to driving less, saving electricity and going vegan, it wouldn’t be possible to stop climate change. People in Germany currently cause about nine tonnes of CO 2 per capita per annum, and would have to reduce their footprint to 1.2 tonnes in order to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees. “Since we can’t turn our way of life back to the Stone Age, this is impossible to achieve without massive technical innovations and the involvement of economic actors. Only collective action can bring about the necessary change.” The objective of her thesis was to show a pragmatic way that examines what needs to be done within what timeframe and for what rational reasons in order to limit climate change - without advocating any ideologies. She doesn’t see the moral duty primarily and exclusively in reducing individual CO 2 emissions. But we’re not off the hook quite so easily because we have the moral obligation to safeguard the rights of future generations. Lippold advocates the individual duty to advance collective action. Almost no-one is exempt from this moral obligation to interfere, she explains, arguing that people belong to so-called weak collectives that are morally obliged to act. The model was developed by the Elizabeth Cripps, philosopher at the University of Edinburgh: it comprises the Young, people up to the age of about 40, who can only protect their moral rights together. The Able, i.e. all those who have the chance to intervene, for example because of their educational background and income. And the Polluters, which include all those who together cause climate change. Almost everyone belongs to at least one of these groups, and many belong to several. “Morality is not an opinion,” stresses Lippold. “Just because you give up flying, you can’t assume that you have done all that is morally necessary. But if you take climate protection seriously, you shouldn’t fly on holiday.” Anna Luisa Lippold: Climate change and individual moral duties. A plea for the promotion of a collective solution. Mentis Verlag, Paderborn 2020, 294 pages, ISBN 9783957431851 International Transportation | Collection 2020 73 International Transportation is a special edition of Internationales Verkehrswesen | vol. 72 Imprint Editorial board Prof. Dr. Kay W. Axhausen Prof. Dr. Hartmut Fricke Prof. Dr. Hans Dietrich Haasis Prof. Dr. Sebastian Kummer Prof. Dr. Barbara Lenz Prof. Knut Ringat Publishing house Trialog Publishers Verlagsgesellschaft Eberhard Buhl | Christine Ziegler Schliffkopfstr. 22, D-72270 Baiersbronn Phone +49 7449 91386.36 office@trialog.de www.trialog.de Publishing Director Dipl.-Ing. Christine Ziegler VDI Phone +49 7449 91386.43 christine.ziegler@trialog.de Editorial office Managing Editor Eberhard Buhl, M.A. Phone +49 7449 91386.44 eberhard.buhl@trialog.de editorsdesk@international-transportation.com Advertising Phone +49 7449 91386.46 Fax +49 7449 91386.37 anzeigen@trialog.de For advertisement prices, please see price list no. 57 of 01 Jan. 2020 Sales Phone +49 7449 91386.39 Fax +49 7449 91386.37 service@trialog.de Publishing intervals Quarterly, plus International Transportation Terms of subscription Subscriptions run for a minimum of 1 year and may be terminated at the end of any subscription period. To unsubscribe, submit a written notice at least six weeks before the period ends. The publishers shall not be liable in case of non-deliverability due to force majeure or any other cause beyond their control. Supplementary digital subscriptions available on request. 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Trialog Publishers Verlagsgesellschaft Baiersbronn-Buhlbach ISSN 0020-9511 IMPRINT | EDITORIAL PANELS Editorial Board Editorial Advisory Board Matthias Krämer Director Mobility and Logistics, Federation of German Industries (Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie e.V./ BDI), Berlin (DE) Gerd Aberle Dr. rer. pol. Dr. h.c., Emeritus professor of Gießen University, and honorary member of the Editorial Advisory Board (DE) Ben Möbius Dr., Executive Director of the German Federation of Rail Industries (Verband der Bahnindustrie in Deutschland), Berlin (DE) Uwe Clausen Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing., Director of the Institute for Transport Logistics at Technical University (TU) Dortmund & Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and Logistics (IML), (DE) Florian Eck Dr., Deputy Managing Director of the German Transport Forum (Deutsches Verkehrsforum e.V./ DVF), Berlin (DE) Michael Engel Dr., Managing Director of the German Airline Association (Bundesverband der Deutschen Fluggesellschaften e. V./ BDF), Berlin (DE) Alexander Eisenkopf Prof. Dr. rer. pol., ZEPPELIN Chair of Economic & Transport Policy, Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen (DE) Tom Reinhold Dr.-Ing., CEO, traffiQ, Frankfurt (DE) Ottmar Gast Dr., Chairman of the Executive Board of Hamburg-Süd KG, Hamburg (DE) Barbara Lenz Prof. Dr., Director of the Institute of Transport Research, German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V./ DLR), Berlin (DE) Knut Ringat Prof., Speaker of the Executive Board of the-Rhine-Main Regional Transport Association (Rhein-Main-Verkehrsverbund GmbH/ RMV), Hofheim am Taunus (DE) Erich Staake Dipl.-Kfm., CEO and President of Duisburger Hafen AG, Duisburg (DE) Wolfgang Stölzle Prof. Dr., Professor of Logistics Management, Research Institute for Logistics Management, University of St. Gallen (CH) Ute Jasper Dr. jur., lawyer, law firm of Heuking Kühn Lüer Wojtek, Düsseldorf (DE) Johannes Max-Theurer Executive Director, Plasser & Theurer, Linz (AT) Matthias von Randow Executive Director of the German Aviation Association (Bundesverband der Deutschen Luftverkehrswirtschaft/ BDL), Berlin (DE) Kay W. Axhausen Prof. Dr.-Ing., Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich (CH) Hartmut Fricke Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil., Chair of Air Transport Technology and Logistics, Technical University (TU) Dresden (DE) Hans-Dietrich Haasis Prof. Dr., Chair of Business Studies and Economics, Maritime Business and Logistics, University of Bremen (DE) Sebastian Kummer Prof. Dr., Head of the Institute for Transport and Logistics Management, Vienna University of Economics and Business (AT) Peer Witten Prof. Dr., Chairman of the Logistics Initiative Hamburg (LHH); Member of the Supervisory Board of Otto Group, Hamburg (DE) Oliver Wolff Executive Director of the Association of German Transport Companies (Verband Deutscher Verkehrsunternehmen/ VDV), Cologne (DE) Oliver Kraft Geschäftsführer, VoestAlpine BWG GmbH, Butzbach (DE) Martin Hauschild Chairman VDI Committee Traffic & Context; Head of Mobility Technologies, BMW Group, Munich (DE) Ralf Nagel CEO of the German Shipowners’ Association (Verband Deutscher Reeder/ VDR), Hamburg (DE) Detlev K. Suchanek Executive Partner, PMC Media House GmbH, Hamburg (DE) Detlef Zukunft Dr., Transport Program Department, German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V./ DLR), Cologne (DE) Jan Ninnemann Prof. Dr., Course head for Logistics Management, Department Maritime & Logistics, HSBA Hamburg School of Business Administration, Hamburg (DE) Sebastian Belz Dipl.-Ing., Secretary General of EPTS Foundation, CEO econex verkehrsconsult, Wuppertal (DE) International Transportation | Collection 2020 74 Dear Readers, For certain we all had clear ideas for this year’s timetable: exhibitions, conferences, trade fairs - and valuable face-to-face meetings. Then Covid-19 entered the stage and we had to break new ground. At the same time the challenges already existing years before did not kindly disappear due to the pandemic. Now as before we are faced with a wide range of topics in the transportation sector. That comprises the evolution of innovative mobility services, the strategies and tools to achieve that aim, and both the social and economical issues. That is why you can read this additional “International Transportation - Collection 2020”. Facing the pandemic we took the chance to address these topics in a compact manner compiling fitting articles we published in 2020. Moreover, we took account of this special situation and bring out “International Transportation - Collection 2020” as an ejournal solely - universally available via computers and mobile devices. It’s a kind of trial balloon, but I am sure it fits perfectly for this days with “virtual events”. And we at “International Transportation” will keep it rolling. One last remark: If you would like to contribute with your expert knowledge, please contact us. Authors‘ guidelines and our submission form can be found at: www.international-transportation.com. Or contact us by e-mail: editorsdesk@ international-transportation.com I look forward to hearing from you! Sincerely Eberhard Buhl, Managing Editor CALENDAR OF EVENTS REMARK | EVENTS Where did all the conference announcements go? Can we know for a fact, whether this or that upcoming event will really take place? Corona ensures we can not. This is why we publish this terms until further notice on the website only. Always up to date. www.international-transportation.com Photo: Pexels / pixabay Meine/ Unsere Daten:  Herr  Frau  Firma/ ... Titel, Vorname, Name Firma/ ... Abteilung Straße + Nr. PLZ, Ort, Land Telefon Telefax E-Mail-Adresse Umsatzsteuer-ID-Nr. (sofern vorhanden) Ihr Bestellzeichen (sofern vorhanden)  Das Widerrufsrecht (s.rechts) habe ich zur Kenntnis genommen.  Die AGB als Vertragsbestandteil habe ich gelesen und akzeptiert. Sie können beim Verlag angefordert oder unter www.trialog-publishers.de als PDF heruntergeladen werden. WISSEN WAS MORGEN BEWEGT Schiene, Straße, Luft und Wasser, globale Verbindungen und urbane Mobilität: Viermal im Jahr bringt Internationales Verkehrswesen fundierte Experten-Beiträge zu Hintergründen, Entwicklungen und Perspektiven der gesamten Verkehrsbranche - verkehrsträgerübergreifend und zukunftsorientiert. Ergänzt werden die deutschen Ausgaben durch die englischsprachige Themen-Ausgabe International Transportation. Mehr dazu im Web unter www.internationales-verkehrswesen.de Internationales Verkehrswesen gehört seit 1949 zu den führenden europäischen Verkehrsfachzeitschriften. Der wissenschaftliche Herausgeberkreis und ein Beirat aus Professoren, Vorständen, Geschäftsführern und Managern der ganzen Verkehrsbranche verankern das Magazin gleichermaßen in Wissenschaft und Praxis. Das technisch-wissenschaftliche Fachmagazin ist zudem Wissens-Partner des VDI Verein Deutscher Ingenieure e.V. - Fachbereich Verkehr und Umfeld. 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