Aus Wissenschaft und Forschung / TAE-Plenarvorträge 27 Tribologie + Schmierungstechnik · 67. Jahrgang · 4/ 2020 Global trade tensions, continued uncertainty and rising prospects for a no-deal Brexit are sapping the strength of the world economy. The mid-year 2019 forecasts for 2020 were full of downgrades, with small downward revisions for Germany and Japan, but much larger cuts for Brazil, Mexico, Russia, India and South Africa - countries that were the engine for global growth in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Besides the macroeconomic situation, the global lubricants industry is likely to see fundamental changes in how industry participants do business as a result of changing technology, regulations, lubricant quality and specifications, supply chain, and consumer behavior. The global finished lubricants market continues to struggle to grow in volume terms due to a shift to-wards longer-lasting lubricants, among other factors. The market outlook is influenced by many developments, such as shifts in viscosity grades, increasingly stringent emission norms in developing countries, and the growing use of synthetics. Global lubricants demand is driven by the United States, where the commercial automotive lubricants market is emerging as a bright spot in an overall declining automotive lubricants market. The global PCMO market will experience disruption brought about by such emerging technologies as electric and autonomous vehicles and shared mobility options. Passenger car manufacturers are expanding their revenue stream by monetizing customer loyalty in the lucrative aftersales lubricants market. They are increasingly capturing market share by offering genuine oils. The two-wheeler lubricants market, though not untouched by the emerging technologies mentioned above, is a bright spot in an otherwise slow-moving finished lubricants market due to its fast growth in developing economies. Disruptions such as E-Mobility (the growing popularity of electric vehicles), Technology (the adoption of new manufacturing materials and the rise of new businesses that leverage information technology to muscle in on marketers’ expertise) and Sustainability will lead to a dip in global lubricants demand in the next 10 to 15 years, but these disruptions will not kill the lubricants (demand), they also offer chances to adopt to the new realities and go beyond our old-fashioned thinking of business success and profit generation. There will be new opportunities and business models for the formulation, production, sales, application and end-of life treatment for future lubricants. The Lubricants Industry in Light of the Macroeconomic Environment Lutz Lindemann* * Dr. Lutz Lindemann Executive Board Member (CTO) / R&D, Supply Chain, Sustainability FUCHS PETROLUB SE, Mannheim, Germany lutz.lindemann@fuchs.com